NFL Network's RedZone Colts stat of the week: Week Four
by Brad Wells on Oct 8, 2009 9:50 AM EDT
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This is a quick follow-up post to mgrex03's Week 4 Review: Inside the Numbers story. Through four games, opposing teams have attempted 65 plays on third down and have converted 31 of those attempts for a rather troubling 47.7% success rate.
65 third down attempts in four games is INSANE. I mean, talk about "bend but don't break."
It averages to about 17 third down attempts a game, converting roughly 8 out of those 17. Contrast this with the Colts offense, who are 21 out of 45 on third down, for roughly 48%.
Again, if you are converting 48% of your third downs on offense, that's impressive. However, allowing 47% of your opponent third down attempts to succeed is not a stat that makes me sleep well at night. While Larry Coyer and Jim Caldwell have done some very good things to improve the Colts defensively, one element they stressed repeatedly during the off-season was getting the opponent off the field on third down. And while we are seeing a spike in the Colts defense creating more 3-and-out stands (they had six all of last year), a 47% third down percentage is not acceptable. Coyer and Caldwell need this percentage to go down if they want to improve things.
We will keep an eye on this stat throughout the season.
On the positive side, the Colts are allowing only 4.4 yards a play and are gaining 7.1 yards a play on offense.
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This..
is one of the main reasons you can hear me screeming at the TV, whether watching the Colts at home or at the bar.
Let’s talk frustrating. First down, stuffed 1 yard gain. Second down, dink pass 3 yard gain. Third and six, 12 yard completion, first down. Jeeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzuuuuuuuuuusssssssss!
I think the Colts are a little better than this stat indicates
If you take out the Miami game, where they converted 15 of 21 third downs, the Colts have allowed 16 conversions in 44 attempts for a 36.4% conversion rate. Basically half of the third down conversions against the Colts came in the Miami game.
While you can’t throw out a game, I think you can gain a different perspective by isolating this game. We may not be in as bad of shape as it appears.
by CDECK on Oct 8, 2009 10:02 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I was thinking the same thing.
While it’s way too small a sample size (only 4 games) to talk about throwing one out yet, the fact is that that Miami game could possibly be an outlier and not typical results. We’ve been doing a lot better in the other 3 games at 3rd/4th down defense, and I’m interested to see if that continues and we can write off that Miami game as unusual circumstances.
Not saying it is an outlier yet, just that we need to keep an eye on it.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: This is what happens when college students get bored.
Maybe when our D is fully loaded things will get better.
"You can't defend the perfect throw, what can I say?" Peyton quoting Marino
Agreed
One of the things that might cool my annoyance with Bob Sanders is if we see a decrease in that percentage while he is on the field.
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I'm ready to see Bobzilla blow somebody up.
I’ve been waiting too long.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: This is what happens when college students get bored.
Sunday night-BobZilla returns. (Maybe, maybe not, maybe, maybe not.......)
"You can't defend the perfect throw, what can I say?" Peyton quoting Marino
Looking increasingly like he does.
I’m getting excited……
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: This is what happens when college students get bored.
Get ready for your annoyance to be cooled.
HOPE.
"You can't defend the perfect throw, what can I say?" Peyton quoting Marino
CDECK hit it on the head
You really cannot use 4 games as a measure because of the fact that virtually 2/3’s of the numbers you are using came from one game. Throw out that game…..and it’s a huge swing the other way.
Even more, consider the garbage time in both the Cardinals/Seahawks games where the games was out of reach with 8 min to go and we started subbing guys in. There were several 3rd downs converted then too..
Overall, the defense is improving and it shows. Perhaps not in the stats, but the Colts D is definitely ahead of last year…
Be interesting to see
How we got at stopping Chris Johnson this week. I still think our run defense is soft – no offense intended to the Seachickens but Julius Jones is a chump, and the Cardinals haven’t been able to run the ball for half a decade*, whilst the two teams who have decent backs that we’ve played against both got good yards.
It might be another case of scoring a lot and making the Titans throw so we don’t have to worry about the running game.
*I may be exaggerating.
I'm not sure you are exaggerating.
I think it’s actually pretty accurate, if memory serves.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: This is what happens when college students get bored.
This Sunday will be a real test for the run D
Last year, Chris Johnson rushed for 77 yards on 19 carriers ( 4.05 yards a carry) @ Tenn on MNF. This year so far the Colts defense is tied for 6th in the AFC with JAX and OAK allowing 4.0 yds a carry. The AFC average is about 4.025. If we can retain CJ and make Collins beat us, then the Colts will win as long as the offense doesn’t make any costly mistakes and Peyton dissects the Tits’ secondary like he’s been doing this season so far.
"Do I believe in aliens?" Stephon Marbury asked. "I don't know, because I've never seen one. But I believe in Jesus because I saw him in the shower the other day."
The troubling thing for me isnt the 47% conversion rate
I think that will normalize as the Colts play more games against non-wildcat opponents. What’s been troubling me about the 3rd down defense is that it seems like we’ve gotten teams in more 3rd and longs this year and they are still converting those. In years past, the problem was always 3rd down was 3rd and 1 or 3rd and 2 and they couldn’t stop them from getting those 1 or 2 yards. This year they seem (maybe I’m wrong) to be much better on first and second down, but flater on 3rd. I don’t know if Coyer is being more aggressive on 1st and 2nd and then going into cover 2 on 3rd down and the pass rush isnt always getting there (This seems unlikely as the pass rush has seemed as good as its ever been) or if teams are beating blitzes. Either way, I remember so many 3rd and longs being converted this year that we might as well just say, ‘3rd and long? they’ve got us right where they want us.’
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