Week 5 Statistical Preview - Colts vs. Titans

by mgrex03 on Oct 9, 2009 3:16 PM EDT in Game Preview

The first week of the year, I was asked if I'd start previewing games, and I thought it was a great idea. I wanted to wait a few weeks into the season, so that the stats wouldn't be taking wild swings based on one game. With this week being a divisional game against the Titans, I thought I'd start my previews.

I'll be using all the Winning Stats we've looked at all summer, as they tell us more than those silly counting stats the NFL uses. Let's get to the numbers...

	Colts				Titans
Statistic	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank
DSR	79.0%	2	71.7%	20	66.1%	23	68.2%	14
ANPY/A	9.827	1	4.140	6	4.561	24	7.557	29
Turnovers / Game	1.00	6	1.50	16	2.75	30	1.50	16
Yds/Drive	43.61	1	30.83	19	28.12	19	26.81	9
ToP/Drive	2:52.8	9	3:15.9	31	2:06.5	32	2:32.2	10
Yds/Play	7.081	1	4.435	4	5.580	12	5.343	16
First Downs/Drive	2.13	5	2.00	27	1.43	24	1.44	8
3rd/4th Down	46.9%	5	49.3%	30	37.3%	19	34.4%	7
Avg Start Pos	28.6	19	27.8	9	24.7	31	38.2	31
3 and Outs / Game	2.50	3	2.50	30	5.25	27	5.00	6
RZ Eff	66.3%	13	62.3%	15	64.3%	17	70.5%	22
Plays/Drive	6.158	7	6.950	32	5.039	28	5.019	3
Penalty Yds / Play	0.658	6	0.446	30	0.681	10	0.572	28
RB Success	47.9%	11	54.5%	27	38.4%	24	26.2%	1
Yds/Carry	3.54	26	4.02	15	5.48	2	2.82	2
Net Punts Yds/Game	41.91	10	42.29	24	39.18	20	40.88	15
Overall	2		21		26		11

Some thoughts:

ANY/A looks to be a complete mismatch when the Colts have the ball. Peyton Manning is on a record-setting pace, and the Titans haven't stopped anyone through the air as of yet. I think this is where the game will be won. If the Titans can somehow slow Manning down, they have a chance. If it is more of the same, it'll be a long night for the Titan's Secondary.
The Colts got murdered in Time of Possession / Drive against Miami, causing them to be 2nd to last in the league. However, the Titans offense is dead last in this category, making this an interesting stat to look at. I think we'll see a lot more running from the Titans this week, so I'm thinking this number will look closer to the Colts' defensive numbers. Keep an eye out for this.
The Colts offense has been very good converting 3rd and 4th downs, about as good as the Titans defense has been at stopping them. Can the Titans keep the Colts from converting 3rd downs? Last year the Colts were 14/29 on 3rd and 4th downs against the Titans.
We've seen that Average Starting Field Position is having a much bigger effect on winning this year than in previous years, and the Titans offense has had the 2nd worst starting field position in the league, while the Colts are in the top 10. This stat has many different variables to it, so it is difficult to pinpoint one thing that needs fixed, but Special Teams is a large portion of it, which the Titans have struggled with this year.
The Titans are causing twice as many 3 and outs on defense as the Colts are having on offense, both top 10 in the league. This goes hand in hand with the 3rd and 4th down conversions talked about earlier, and leads to both units being top 10 in Plays / Drive as well.
The Titans are #1 in RB Success Defense, and #2 in Yards / Carry offense. Stopping Chris Johnson, or just getting up by multiple scores, will help the Colts out tremendously. Johnson is easily the most dynamic RB the Colts have faced this season. Here's hoping Heimerdinger keeps throwing the ball...
Overall, the Colts offense is ranked #2 in the league, and 21st defensively. The Titans are 26th and 11th, respectively. This looks like a lop-sided game, but it almost never is when these 2 teams play.

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