Best Analysis of Pats-Colts Game

This is almost perfect analysis. No surprise it comes from Walter. Although he was a Peyton hater for a long time, he actually looks at this game with objective eyes. Here it is:

New England Patriots (6-2) at Indianapolis Colts (8-0)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 50.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 9): Colts -6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 9): Colts -6.
Sunday, 8:20 ET

The Game. Edge: Colts.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Last year, I kept you up to date with Bo-Bo's Fantasy Team (click the link for details). This year, I'm doing the same.

It's a miracle! It's a miracle! Bo-Bo wins two in a row! Bo-Bo wins two in a row! For the first time ever (I think), Bo-Bo hasn't followed up one of his rare wins with a loss.

Even though he started scrubs like Patrick Crayton, Laveranues Coles, Earl Bennett and John Carlson, Bo-Bo won 102-77. Here's his lineup and the points each player scored for him:

QB: Joe Flacco (0)
RB1: Michael Turner (31)
RB2: Frank Gore (21)
WR1: Earl Bennett (9)
WR2: Patrick Crayton (7)
WR3: Laveranues Coles (7)
TE: John Carlson (4)
K: David Akers (14)
DEF: Cowboys Defense (9)

Bo-Bo is now 3-6. His opponent should hang his head in shame and retire from fantasy football forever.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: In his past three games, Tom Brady has thrown for 1,020 yards, 10 touchdowns and three picks. Looks pretty amazing, but I wouldn't be too impressed.

First of all, his three opponents, Tennessee, Tampa Bay and Miami, are a combined 6-18. All three of those defensive backfields are horrific. And despite those numbers, Brady really struggled to put together long drives against the Buccaneers and Dolphins. Sure, he hit the occasional long bomb to Randy Moss, but that's not really difficult to do against crap secondaries like those.

The last time Brady battled a real defense was back in Week 5 at Denver. Brady was 19-of-33 for 215 yards, giving him a meager completion percentage (57.6) and YPA (6.5).

I think we'll see that Brady here. Despite what he has done in the past three weeks, he's still not 100 percent. And don't fall into the trap of thinking that the Colts won't be able to stop the pass because of all of the injuries to their secondary; the three guys who are out - Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden - have barely played this year. It's been Indianapolis' young corners (Jerraud Powers, Jacob Lacey and Tim Jennings) and strong safety Melvin Bullitt who have really stepped up.

Sanders, Jackson and Hayden have only SIX combined starts this year. Six! Anyone who is picking against the Colts because of their secondary "woes" clearly hasn't been paying attention to them all year.

Indianapolis' rush defense has really improved since that Monday night disaster at Miami, and Laurence Maroney sucks anyway, so Brady is going to have to throw a ton. Sure, he'll put together some scoring drives, but I think he'll struggle for the most part. The Colts defense is really underrated.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: While Brady has been pedestrian when he hasn't feasted off the crap teams of the NFL, Peyton Manning has been playing out of his mind this year. This, in my opinion, is Manning's best season as a pro, especially when you consider that he's getting it done with all of these young players.

A large part to any quarterback's success is his offensive line. Manning barely gets sacked as it is, so I don't see how New England will apply any sort of pressure on him. On the year, the Patriots have only 15 sacks. If they can't get to Manning, this year's prospective MVP is going to torch their secondary.

Speaking of which, New England's pass defense is really overrated right now, which is a bit ironic considering how underrated Indianapolis' secondary is. The Patriots have risen to eighth in pass defense, but look at whom they've played recently: The Dolphins don't attack with downfield strikes; the Buccaneers had Josh Johnson under center and he sucks; and the Titans had a drunk Kerry Collins in a snow game. Before these three aerially challenged foes, New England was 14th versus the pass and had just allowed 330 yards to Kyle Orton. Yes, the same Kyle Orton who throws like a 12-year-old girl!

While Brady and the Patriots will put some scoring drives together, I believe Manning and the Colts will have much more success in that department. Sure, Bill Belichick is going to throw the kitchen sink at Manning, but these teams play each other every year. Manning has seen it all. He struggled early in his career versus New England, but the last four times he has gone against Belichick, he's a combined 84-of-139, 1,154 yards, six touchdowns and three picks. That's an impressive YPA of 8.3.

It's also worth noting that the Colts are 3-1 in those four contests.

RECAP: This has been a long write-up, so I'm going to make this recap simple. This line is off by three points (should be Colts -6 based on talent). The Colts have the better offense and the better defense. I'll be completely shocked if they lose this game.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
Brady vs. Manning. No extra motivation on either side.


The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
Early action on the Colts. The public now likes the Patriots. I thought this would be 50-50.

Percentage of money on New England: 71% (31,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

PROPS TO WALTERFOOTBALL.COM!!!!