Week 10 Statistical Preview: Colts vs. Patriots

by mgrex03 on Nov 15, 2009 11:11 AM EST in Game Preview Comment 5 comments

The Colts end their 3 game home stand tonight when they take on the evil Patriots. Does it feel weird to anyone else that this game should have been last week, seeing as how each of the previous 4 season they've played in Week 9?

Coming into this week, the Colts are ranked 2nd Offensively, 14th Defensively, and 3rd Overall, according to the Winning Stats Power Rankings. The Patriots are 1st, 10th, and 2nd respectively. Talk about two nearly identical teams.

On to the stats, and why the Colts will win tonight...

Here are the season stats for the Colts and Patriots:

	Colts				Patriots
Statistic	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank
DSR	78.4%	1	67.2%	10	77.7%	2	67.0%	9
ANPY/A	8.043	2	3.890	3	7.417	5	4.887	8
Turnovers / Game	1.00	3	1.88	8	0.88	1	1.88	8
Yds/Drive	40.04	1	28.55	16	38.52	2	28.12	12
ToP/Drive	2:54.5	6	2:54.6	25	3:12.2	2	2:33.7	11
Yds/Play	6.343	3	4.676	4	5.931	5	4.987	9
First Downs/Drive	2.19	2	1.69	22	2.22	1	1.63	15
3rd/4th Down	50.5%	2	44.5%	30	45.4%	5	38.5%	15
Avg Start Pos	28.7	21	26.1	3	31.4	8	27.3	9
3 and Outs / Game	2.38	2	3.75	19	2.75	4	3.88	16
RZ Eff	68.5%	12	60.5%	10	63.0%	22	68.9%	22
Plays/Drive	6.313	2	6.106	29	6.494	1	5.639	21
Penalty Yds / Play	0.655	4	0.846	14	0.717	11	0.919	7
RB Success	47.5%	11	47.9%	20	55.3%	3	44.9%	15
Yds/Carry	3.73	27	4.30	17	4.14	18	4.45	23
Net Punts Yds/Game	40.66	11	42.21	27	36.37	31	36.14	2
Overall	2		14		1		10

Some thoughts and keys to the game:

While the Patriots are no slouch when it comes to passing and defending the pass (ANPY/A), the Colts are better both offensively and defensively. I know it is cliche at this point, but whichever team can get to the Quarterback the most will win. Freeney vs. 6'8" Rookie Vollmer? I'll take #93.
Time of Possession / Drive is worrisome. The Colts defense is still having some issues getting off the field in a timely fashion, and we all know the Patriots can sustain 10+ minute drives. Those will be Colt killers today.
Getting some 3rd down stops is also critical. Look for a few well-timed blitzes on 3rd down, and watch for the draw play to Kevin Faulk. I'm looking at you Eric Foster. Make it happen.
I think today's game will come down to which team scores Touchdowns in the Red Zone, and which one kicks Field Goals. The Colts have struggled getting in the end zone the past 2 games, but the Patriots have struggled to get in the end zone all year. There should be quite a few yards put up between the 20s, but the team who scores TDs in the red zone will win.
Score? Colts 28, Patriots 20. Can the game get here already?

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Comments

One thing that's very encouraging about the possible Freeney-Volmer matchup

is that Freeney owned the massive 6’9" Jon Ogden. It was like he had a problem working on a guy that small with Freeney’s skills. Volmer could have the same issue, and then some.

Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.

by shake n bake on Nov 15, 2009 11:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Plus the biggest difference...

Not only is Freeney talented, he’s a seasoned veteran who’s played in plenty of big games and pressure situations. As good as Vollmer has looked to us so far, and Pats’ fans are pretty excited about him, he’s still a rookie. No matter how much film he watches, he’s still going to have to match up against him and see how it all works in real time. I’m predicting that usual adjustment period, learning curve, in the first quarter and hope he’s up for the challenge.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Nov 15, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And we'll probably have the same kinds of issues with our rookie corners.

I know they’re playing great and we’re thrilled about them, but all it takes is one mistake.

by shoein on Nov 15, 2009 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Look for lots of holding calls against NE for holding Freeney.

by 18to87 on Nov 15, 2009 12:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My take (not like it matters)

I think Freeney will have all the leverage today…..which will translate to sack(s), and holding penalties, which are just as good as sacks. I also look for the Colts rushing game to finally arrive for 2009. If the Donald is unhurt and effective, and the Colts OL sacks up like I think they will (pride being the motivation), The Colts will pull off what the Pats will try to do, which is keep the QB off the field. We don’t need 10 minute drives, but we do need to keep the defense off the field long enough to get a good blow between series’ and keep them fresh enough to stay after Brady.

by tim55 on Nov 15, 2009 2:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs