Belichick probably made the right call on 4th and 2: Here are the simple numbers
by dsvirsky on Nov 16, 2009 1:14 AM EST
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PrintImmediately after the game, Belichick was panned by Tony Dungy, Rodney Harrison (did anyone else think he seemed on the verge of tears there?), Trent Dilfer, and pretty much every media type. It's sadly unsurprising that they'd jump to a conclusion without consulting the numbers, instead relying on the "unwritten rules of coaching" which somehow are more holy than the Ten Commandments. Not only are they dumb for not stopping to think: they're dumb because they're probably wrong. Here are the numbers.
For Belichick's call to be wrong, the following equation must be true:
1*a + (-1)*b < 1*c + (-1)*(1-c), or, to rearrange:
a-b < 2c-1
Where a is the chance of converting the 4th down (you also assume the Pats pretty much win if they convert)
Where b is the chance of the Colts scoring a TD with one timeout from the Pats' 29 and two minutes left
Where c is the chance of a Pat stop
Where Belichick values a win at 1
and finally, where Belichick values a loss at -1.
So, it's a simple numbers game. If the Pats convert 62% of the time (their conversion rate on 4th and within 2, according to ESPN), and the Colts get a TD from the 29 about 80% of the time (you can plug in your own numbers here), then the Pats would have to stop the Colts after a punt more than 40% of the time. So, as you can see, it's probably close. Given the greatness of Peyton, we might very well have had a 60% chance or better of driving 80 yards...Still, I'm not so sure Belichick's call was wrong.
That said, Belichick did screw up. If he knew he was going for it on 4th, given the Colts' run D, the logical choice would be to run it twice on 3rd down and then 4th down, causing the Colts to burn a timeout and most likely picking up the 2 yards.
Thoughts?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.
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I don’t think there’s any question it was the right call, and I applaud him for being the only coach in the game with the balls to take the risk of blame and make the call.
When they sent the offense back out I went from confident to angry. I knew the chance of winning had been greatly reduced. It’s simple – a punt guarantees the Colts get a chance to win with 2:00 to play. I like those odds. I estimate the chances of the Pats converting on that at well over 80%. And if they convert, the game is OVER.
Seriously. They ran a QB sneak for 3 yards earlier in the game in an obvious QB sneaking situation. Their interior line beat the crap out of our interior line. And if not for a small bobble, Faulk ends it right there.
Easy call. Announcers are stupid. If the Colts had a QB as bad as Trent Dilfer, then yeah, it’s moronic to even take a chance. But the Colts have Peyton Manning. The Pats had a tired D missing 2 linemen. That changes things.
I love that teams routinely punt from inside the opposition 40 and Belichick goes for it here. And people wonder why the Pats are so good year in year out and teams like the Lions are 2-31. Seriously, it almost makes me like the guy.
I said in another thread I agree with it
and an hour later my opinion hasn’t changed. They always say the best way to win is to keep the ball out of the other QB’s hands, especially when that QB is Manning. Well, trying to convert a short 4th down with a couple future Hall of Famers on the field is definitely a good way to keep the ball out of his hands. If it had been converted, the entire upcoming week would be write-ups on how much of a mastermind Belichick is for making that call.
umm... yeah..
No offense but that mathematical “equation” didnt make much sense. Maybe i speak for myself but percentages dont mean shit in a tight game. You dont think like that. its a game of inches and momentum. And they had the momentum and needed inches. Good call by BB, but again (im sorry) i dont see the need for a post like this, if youre just reinstating other posts in an attempt to look smart..
~Karim "The Dream" Odeh
...
Ok. i was a little harsh earlier, but my main point about momentum is that Their 4th and 2 numbers or the numbers posted by the colts can be in the 1st 2nd or 3rd quarter, in a close, or blowout game, against a rival or a meaningless game. Therefore in a play like this you cant really use an equation like that… Those dont work in sports because you cannot factor in things like inactive players, momentum, trying, playcalling or any other aspect that varies between games.
In my opinion the only thing % are good for in sports are post game stats, like completion , winning % or maybe how often we kick patriot ass in the last few years (100)
~Karim "The Dream" Odeh
by KarimTheDream on Nov 16, 2009 2:51 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, this is an important point. We’re not interested in the Pats’ general chances here, or the normal “percentage” or success, whatever that is, but the chances in this specific situation. This kind of thing can be harder to measure, and you could probably make good arguments both ways.
Also, it’s obvious that there’s a big problem with trying to actually apply the equation, and you noted it: it’s hard to know in a given situation what values actually apply. The 60% 4th and 2 conversion rate is based on tons of games with different players and levels of momentum and playcalling wrinkles, etc. That said, I don’t think it’s accurate to say you can’t factor these things in when you’re estimating the right call. If the Colts’ starting defensive line was all inactive for the game, then you know the Pats’ chance of conversion goes up a little. If the Pats had gained more than five yards on every run to the left against the Colts in the game, then you can use this info on playcalling to help adjust the numbers.
Bottom line? While the equation is expressed in certain terms, it is, in reality, just a rough way of estimating what makes the most sense. It doesn’t give us any answers—it just helps clarify our thinking in complex situations, providing a rational framework for those of us who question those “unwritten rules of coaching”—rules that are probably as superstitious as they are wise.
I think, logically, the only way to say it's a bad call is if you don't trust Peyton to win the game
The more faith you have in Peyton Manning, the more likely it is he scores a TD, whether he’s starting from the 29 or his own 30, the more important it is to take risks (whether they’re 50%, 60%, or 70%) to keep the ball away from Manning.
A 60% conversion rate doesn’t sound absurd for the second-best QB in the game (Brady), who was having a great game against the Colts so far.
Even if that 60% drops all the way down to 50% (a huge drop), the Pats are still more likely to win by going for it.
The problem is it's such a stark choice
You make the first, you win. You don’t, you lose. Punting gives you more chances at pulling out the game. It’s basically all-in at a point when you HAVE the lead. I think Belicheck got outcoached; Caldwell keeping the 2-minute warning in front of him with the TOs was genius. It put the Pats in a situation of tough choices.
Now burning that last TO, THAT was stupid.
Your math isn't exactly correct
So to calculate the the odds using your numbers the chance of the patriots not converting is .38 * the chance of the colts scoring a TD from the 29 call it .8 = ~ 30%. According to your numbers 30% of the time Belichick makes that call he loses the game. If he punts you say 60% of the time the colts make it. This still however proves your point that 30% chance of losing is better then a 60% chance of losing (assuming your probability of the Colts driving from their 20 yard line is correct). Basically as long as the chance of us scoring a TD after they punt is >30% Belichick made the right call statistically.
That being said, I’d be pissed if I were on his defense. Also, I think Caldwell handled the game well. He seems like he has ice water in his veins. He was completely stoic when our boys scored that final TD. Maybe he’s a robot?
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