about 2 years ago
shake n bake
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If it was the right call
then can the D get some credit for getting a game-winning stop? That would be Melvin Bullitt making the big play.
Thanks Shake
That’s about what I thought. I love the media bashing BB and not the team (or praising the Colts!). As Brady said in the post game presser, if they got 7 more inches, it becomes a great call, no?
Going for it on 4th down is the Pats’ bread and butter; I never had a doubt they’d go for it.
Way to go Melvin.
I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.
i don't disagree with the decision, but the execution
if they are going for it on 4th, i think they need to go run – run on 3rd and 4th. It would have forced the colts to use their last time out, and probably have had a better chance of success.
In conclusion:
1) Colts win?
2) Belichick questioned by the media?
3) Belichick caught on film looking like he wanted the hemlock?
4) Patriots Nation pissing and moaning?
I support the call 100%
Never doubt Peyton Manning, he’ll make you look silly
Im a douchebag, an asshole, and I'm rarely right.
Except that we stuffed the run
The only way they even got close was by passing. Even three runs and a punt would still have given the Colts the ball with two minutes remaining. Slightly better percentage there but do you really want to bet against Peyton in that situation, even with no timeouts left?
Their best chance to win was to get the first down by any means necessary, and they damn near pulled it off.
Like I said below, I think the only true mistake was burning all timeouts and leaving no room to challenge. That’s the part where BB out-coached himself for once.
Never approach a vast undertaking with a half-vast plan.
You're going to let one run dictate how you play the rest of the game?
Their running had been successful more times than not. They had 2 plays to get 2 yards, I think I would have taken my chances.
Never doubt Peyton Manning, he’ll make you look silly
Im a douchebag, an asshole, and I'm rarely right.
Play call was fine
and they were an official’s spot away from converting.
That said, there wouldn’t have been any issue with simply floating one 5-6 yards down field, high and towards the sideline, and letting Randy Moss just go get it in traffic. Sadly and annoyingly, that’s a high percentage play too.
I think the call was awesome, it terrified me at the time, and I love that it’s exposing all kinds of idiots in the media today. Even some articulate people are showing their inability to understand numbers. Colin Cowherd, for instance, who even had the stats shown to him but suffered a massive logic fail in his decision to ignore them. He could’ve simply acted like Golic and said “I understand it, but I still wouldn’t have done it,” citing emotion, crowd, momentum, etc. Instead he made all kinds of stupid irrelevant and invalid analogies and ended up sounding like a moron.
Not as much of a moron as Dilfer or Deion though. And to think, I usually like and sort of agree with Dilfer.
Bruschi takes the cake though, with his moronic contention that Bill didn’t give his D a chance to win the game. Uh, Tedi – he let them go out there with 2 minutes left and a 6 point lead. They had plenty of opportunities to win it. Isn’t that more of a show of confidence than punting? Your 2003 powerful defense would’ve licked their chops at the chance to close that one out with a big stand there. All your dumbass argument did was reinforce the idea that Manning was winning the battles at that point and that a punt would’ve been pointless.
I thought the spot was correct?
The pattern was too short for that situation, at that point the route, the throw, and the catch all have to be perfect. I said in the quick recap thread that if I’m a Pats fan and I’m going for it and I’m throwing it, and I see them blitzing like that, I’d rather them max protect Brady and just send Welker and Moss out, because you know they are winning those matchups. So yea, protect Brady, Moss on an out route, probably game.
Never doubt Peyton Manning, he’ll make you look silly
Im a douchebag, an asshole, and I'm rarely right.
I find the SportsNation Poll about this to be humerous.
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/polls?pCat=46&sCat=819
Even considering the sample space for the later polls is about 1/3rd of the first, the fans are contradicting themselves. 60 percent say there was no excuse for him to make that call on 4th, and yet 52 percent in the later poll say the colts in anyways. If “they’re going to win anyways” is a generally held consensus, why would Bill not run an offensive play on 4th and short? That would be the only way that the colts do not win, according to the second poll.
I’m totally confused by the lack of logic behind the poll voting.
Those stats are useless
The pats have didnt have a 60% chance of making it, it was just that 60% of attempts before had made it, that doesnt mean all teams in the future have a 60% chance.
If the Colts lose 5% of our matches total, that doesnt mean if we go against the Pats we have a 95% chance of winning, it means very very little. The same here with this stat of 60%
No, the stats are relevant for the 4th down conversion
There have been hundreds or thousands of 4th-down conversion attempts to base the decision on. That is a large enough sample set to predict that any given 4th down has a 60% chance of being converted.
Maybe there’s a margin of error in the hundredths of a percent—I don’t know.
But statistically, if your team is up by six, at the 28-yard line, with just over 2:00 left, you are better off going for it.
It’s like having four aces in poker. Do you go all in? Maybe the guy across from you has a straight flush. But the odds are that four aces will win against the majority of hands.
"Do you go all-in?"
Well that depends. If you are playing with an aggressive player, it might be a better move to make a smaller bet and let him hang himself by raising you, for example. It all depends on the situation.
/feels like annoying people
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: I turn 19 on Tuesday, November 17. I accept all gifts. If any of you can figure out a way for me not to have a test Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday on the week of my birthday, that would be the best present ever.
It was mathematically the right call to go for it
but they should have run it. The same problem happened to the Colts in San Diego on that 3rd and 2.
They should have run it. On 3rd or 4th and 2 or less, running it has a higher conversion rate than passing it. Football Outsiders puts it at: “Expand that to all third or fourth
downs with 1 or 2 yards to go, and the run is successful
40 percent more often.”
The chances of them passing for the 2 yards has to be less than the chances that Manning drives 70 yards for aTD.
EVH+DLR=BFFr........ God I Hope So!!
Dunno
Averages can only account for so much – the Patriots passing game is much stronger than their running game. If I had to make the call, I’d be throwing it too – I’d rather trust Brady than Maroney or Faulk on the ground, especially as we’d be stopping their run much better in the second half from memory.
I’d say Manning was a much higher chance than the historical NFL average from short field (53%) which makes the WP lower for the failed 4th and 2 – but of course Manning also has a much higher chance from 75 or so yards, and Brady probably has a higher chance than the average of converting 4th and two.
Having seen the stats, I think Belicheck made the right call. It just didn’t work.
by eltharion_doa on Nov 16, 2009 7:47 PM EST up reply actions
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