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Week 10: Inside the Numbers

I, much like shake, had already started the "This is why the Colts lost" edition of Inside the Numbers in my head.  They had too many 3 and Outs.  They turned the ball over twice.  The drive stats, without actually seeing the numbers, felt bad.

I'm glad I didn't have to write that.

Instead, I get to write about how the Patriots "outplayed" the Colts, in terms of the Winning Stats, but didn't score more points than the Colts, and that's really all that matters in the end.  Some notes from the game:

  • NBC flashed a stat at the end of the game...This was the first time in Bill Belichick's career as a head coach he surrendered a 13+ point lead in the 4th quarter.  The previous record was 12 points in 2000 against the Jets.
  • They also flashed a stat that Tom Brady was 25-2 when throwing for 300 yards, which is well above average.  Well, he's 25-3 now.  Peyton Manning, for the record, is 34-21 in his career, and 8-0 this season.  As an aside, if you want a historical look at all QB's records when they pass for 300 yards vs. 100 yard rushers, check out the PFR blog from today.
  • Dwight Freeney's consecutive games with a sack ended at 9, one short of the NFL record.  That rookie came to play, and on the couple plays he did get beat, he had some help.  Thems the breaks, but I don't think Freeney is too upset today about it.
  • The farther I get from the 4th and 2, the more I think Belichick was correct in his decision.  The play call, however, was a classic Brady staple.  Remember in 2007, when Brady went to Troy Brown on 3rd and 4, with just over 2 minutes to go?  Bob Sanders knew (as did I) who Brady was going to, and what route he was running, as he almost picked off the pass and took it to the house.  I had little doubt, when I saw Faulk motion out of the backfield, that that was where he was going with the ball, and the same route.  Thankfully Melvin Bullitt was on top of things, and made the play of the game.

Let's get to those numbers...

Star-divide

Here are the stats from Week 10:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 76.9% 5 73.7% 19 N N 3-0
ANPY/A 6.800 11 8.614 26 N N 6-0
Turnovers 2 15 2 6 N N 8-2
Yds/Drive 29.07 16 34.07 19 N N 3-1
ToP/Drive 1:47.0 30 2:30.1 14 N N 5-0
Yds/Play 6.460 7 6.625 27 N N 3-0
First Downs/Drive 1.79 12 1.71 17 N N 4-1
3rd/4th Down 41.7% 12 46.7% 22 N N 4-2
Avg Start Pos 23.6 26 32.1 23 N Y 5-2
3 and Outs 5 16 5 9 N N 3-1
RZ Eff 100.0% 1 64.3% 15 Y N 6-3
Plays/Drive 4.500 27 5.143 10 N N 3-4
Penalty Yds / Play 0.317 3 1.000 13 Y N 5-3
RB Success 61.1% 3 42.9% 12 Y N 3-6
Yds/Carry 5.06 8 4.04 11 Y N 4-4
Net Punts Yds/Game 31.71 29 44.00 25 N Y 1-5
Ranking - Week (30) 14 20 21
Ranking - Season (288) 137 176 173

Some thoughts:

  • It is true that the Patriots "outplayed" the Colts in many facets of the game, but didn't "outplay" them in the one stat that truly counts.  This is the 2nd time this season the Colts have won a game that the Winning Stats have said they shouldn't have (Dolphins).  The Patriots have also had a game of their own where they were "outplayed" but won (Ravens).
  • Drive Success Rate was much better for the offense than it looked on TV.  I think I got my view skewed by the fact it was either a 3 and out, or a TD drive.  The offense did well in this.
  • The offense was worst in the league this week in Time of Possession / Drive.  You can take that with a grain of salt, as the last 3 TD drives took 2:04, 1:49, and 1:47.  And the last one clearly could have been a lot quicker.
  • Here's what I said about Red Zone efficiency on Sunday Morning:
    I think today's game will come down to which team scores Touchdowns in the Red Zone, and which one kicks Field Goals.

    The Colts were in the Red Zone 3 times, and scored 3 Touchdowns.  The Patriots were in the Red Zone 6 (!?!) times, came away with 3 Touchdowns, 2 FGs, and a fumble.  I'm getting good at this game.
  • Check out the Rushing Stats, both offensively and defensively!  It doesn't win games on its own, but it certainly helps.  They keep getting better by the week.
  • The Patriots were only above average on both sides of the ball in 2 stats (Avg. Start Pos. and Net Punt Yds), while the Colts were in 4 stats.  Maybe the Patriots didn't "outplay" the Colts as much as "experts" said they did.

Here are the season stats:

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 78.2% 1 Colts 68.2% 12 Jets 59-5 0.922
ANPY/A 7.891 2 Saints 4.464 5 Bills 74-5 0.937
Turnovers 1.11 4 Packers 1.89 6 Saints 65-15 0.813
Yds/Drive 38.40 1 Colts 29.33 19 Giants 63-8 0.887
ToP/Drive 2:44.5 16 Steelers 2:51.1 25 Saints 62-18 0.775
Yds/Play 6.356 2 Saints 4.914 7 Jets 61-11 0.847
First Downs/Drive 2.13 2 Patriots 1.70 21 Giants 53-12 0.815
3rd/4th Down 49.6% 2 Dolphins 44.8% 29 Cardinals 52-12 0.813
Avg Start Pos 28.0 25 Vikings 27.0 9 Ravens 68-15 0.819
3 and Outs 2.67 2 Cowboys 3.89 18 Texans 44-16 0.733
RZ Eff 71.4% 5 Buccaneers 61.5% 11 Steelers 42-24 0.636
Plays/Drive 6.043 3 Patriots 5.970 29 Giants 48-24 0.667
Penalty Yds / Play 0.618 2 Jaguars 0.865 11 Seahawks 75-52 0.591
RB Success 48.7% 10 Dolphins 47.3% 20 Steelers 50-26 0.658
Yds/Carry 3.85 25 Titans 4.27 15 49ers 31-36 0.463
Net Punts Yds/Game 38.92 19 Raiders 42.38 30 Patriots 32-32 0.500
Overall 2 Patriots 15 Saints

A couple things here:

  • Eleven of Sixteen stats the Colts are in the top 5 offensively, including the top 4.  Half of them they are in the top 2.  That's pretty awesome.
  • Defense keeps slowly getting better.  Check out Yards / Carry, as the defense is now in the top half of the league!  That is completely unexpected, and I'm thrilled
  • ANPY/A is winning at 93.7% this season, best of the stats.  I'm also impressed with the RB Success Rate, winning almost 2 of every 3 games.

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I am SO watching this game again on NFLN tomorrow

Does anyone know if it gets replayed at the same time nationally (i.e., 5pm PT / 8pm ET)? Might be fun to have an open thread if it is.

How can you not love a team that does this?

by LovinBlue on Nov 17, 2009 11:16 PM EST reply actions  

I think I saw on the NFLN that it'll be replayed

at 8 pm ET, but I’m not sure.

Peyton Manning makes it Wayne on them Hoes!!!!

by KMR24 on Nov 17, 2009 11:42 PM EST up reply actions  

yes 8 pm ET here in Maryland

an open game thread sounds like a great idea, lol

by MarkFive05 on Nov 18, 2009 7:47 AM EST up reply actions  

They've labeled it NFL Classic Game

So they’re replaying the entire game. Full three hours. Not an hour and half like usual NFL Replay.

by diagenesis on Nov 18, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions  

I have never been so excited for a game REPLAY

I’m going to leave work early so I can be sitting in front of the TV for kickoff

For reals

How can you not love a team that does this?

by LovinBlue on Nov 18, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

It's similar to the 2007 game

where we “outplayed” the Pats for three quarters, but lost. “Outplaying” someone and losing means you didn’t do what it took to win. We did what it took to win, and they did not, and by repeating that they “outplayed” us will not make all the fans in Boston, NFL network and at ESPN feel any better. We were and are the better team.

by npb1985 on Nov 17, 2009 11:20 PM EST reply actions  

Re: photo caption. He asks about APPLES?? what about goats?

May the wind be always at your back, and may your placekicker have icewater in his veins.

by juperee on Nov 17, 2009 11:23 PM EST reply actions  

This is more what I was thinking

May the wind be always at your back, and may your placekicker have icewater in his veins.

by juperee on Nov 17, 2009 11:44 PM EST up reply actions  

win 3 super rings, throw for 50 TDs, win bunches of games

and fuck ONE goat and your known your whole life as a goat fucker.

Life is so unfair.

Never doubt Peyton Manning, he’ll make you look silly

Im a douchebag, an asshole, and I'm rarely right.

by SpazMo on Nov 18, 2009 4:36 AM EST up reply actions  

i dont want to get yelled at, but i dont know where to post this

everytime i post something injury related i get chided… so here goes: Terrell Suggs is out for the game against the colts this week with a torn boobie. Pretty significant. Will look at the stats when Im done working.

Never doubt Peyton Manning, he’ll make you look silly

Im a douchebag, an asshole, and I'm rarely right.

by SpazMo on Nov 17, 2009 11:27 PM EST reply actions  

Perhaps I'm getting too confident

but I smell a bloodbath against the Ravens.

How can you not love a team that does this?

by LovinBlue on Nov 17, 2009 11:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm sort of thinking along those lines...

The Ravens’ secondary is well below average. The only real weapon on their offense is Ray Rice and if they are playing from behind all day he won’t be a factor. Plus the Ravens are the anti-Chargers. No matter how the season is going, we own them. If we don’t have a huge let down after the Pats game, I fully expect to put this one away by multiple touchdowns.

by invisibulman on Nov 18, 2009 8:49 AM EST up reply actions  

We have the past couple of years

And my blood pressure could do with a nice beatdown!

by SupermanWearsBobSander'sPJs on Nov 18, 2009 11:13 AM EST up reply actions  

wow

Ravens are screwed. Suggs is a beast

Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.

It's shocking how much can slip your perception

by shake n bake on Nov 17, 2009 11:44 PM EST up reply actions  

DVOAs posted

i guess i was wrong about colts playing a better game, but i think aaron misspoke when he said the colts closed the gap.

Never doubt Peyton Manning, he’ll make you look silly

Im a douchebag, an asshole, and I'm rarely right.

by SpazMo on Nov 18, 2009 12:36 AM EST up reply actions  

also i got it wrong

i could have sworn i read on twitter that it was a torn pectoral, but its an injured knee. Guess I shouldnt be distracted when reading.

Never doubt Peyton Manning, he’ll make you look silly

Im a douchebag, an asshole, and I'm rarely right.

by SpazMo on Nov 18, 2009 6:18 AM EST up reply actions  

yeah injured knee

when Quinn threw an INT Quinn tried to get in and make a tackle. The bad part is that Suggs was in his way and Quinn went straight at Suggs knees. He drew a penalty for the bad hit.

Here’s a question, should Quinn get a fine for throwing a dirty hit like that?

Watch it here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xex97MHLy18

by MarkFive05 on Nov 18, 2009 11:15 AM EST up reply actions  

hmm...could be

I actually expected the Raves to be bigtime upsetters this year and plow thru to the playoffs. Maybe not, but they won’t be easy either.

May the wind be always at your back, and may your placekicker have icewater in his veins.

by juperee on Nov 17, 2009 11:38 PM EST reply actions  

ach! Reply fail

That was meant to reply to LovinBlue “Perhaps I’m getting too confident”

May the wind be always at your back, and may your placekicker have icewater in his veins.

by juperee on Nov 17, 2009 11:41 PM EST up reply actions  

fo sho

How can you not love a team that does this?

by LovinBlue on Nov 17, 2009 11:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I am not convinced by the Run defense

I am still worried about good teams with power running games, i.e (Vikings, Steelers, Bengals).

We haven’t played anybody with a power running game and a defense to back it up.

Luckily we wouldn’t face any of these teams until the playoffs, but I am still not convinced.

by newportVOL on Nov 18, 2009 11:38 AM EST reply actions  

Power Running

Uhh… Didn’t we play the jaguars and the titans? Both of them have damn good RBs and we pretty much shut them down. We don’t get beat by power running very much, the delayed draw is what really gets the Colts because Freeney and Mathis are so far upfield expecting a pass play, so the RB has a natural void to run through.

by Tiqabar on Nov 18, 2009 1:39 PM EST up reply actions  

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