Week 10: Inside the Numbers

I, much like shake, had already started the "This is why the Colts lost" edition of Inside the Numbers in my head.  They had too many 3 and Outs.  They turned the ball over twice.  The drive stats, without actually seeing the numbers, felt bad.

I'm glad I didn't have to write that.

Instead, I get to write about how the Patriots "outplayed" the Colts, in terms of the Winning Stats, but didn't score more points than the Colts, and that's really all that matters in the end.  Some notes from the game:

  • NBC flashed a stat at the end of the game...This was the first time in Bill Belichick's career as a head coach he surrendered a 13+ point lead in the 4th quarter.  The previous record was 12 points in 2000 against the Jets.
  • They also flashed a stat that Tom Brady was 25-2 when throwing for 300 yards, which is well above average.  Well, he's 25-3 now.  Peyton Manning, for the record, is 34-21 in his career, and 8-0 this season.  As an aside, if you want a historical look at all QB's records when they pass for 300 yards vs. 100 yard rushers, check out the PFR blog from today.
  • Dwight Freeney's consecutive games with a sack ended at 9, one short of the NFL record.  That rookie came to play, and on the couple plays he did get beat, he had some help.  Thems the breaks, but I don't think Freeney is too upset today about it.
  • The farther I get from the 4th and 2, the more I think Belichick was correct in his decision.  The play call, however, was a classic Brady staple.  Remember in 2007, when Brady went to Troy Brown on 3rd and 4, with just over 2 minutes to go?  Bob Sanders knew (as did I) who Brady was going to, and what route he was running, as he almost picked off the pass and took it to the house.  I had little doubt, when I saw Faulk motion out of the backfield, that that was where he was going with the ball, and the same route.  Thankfully Melvin Bullitt was on top of things, and made the play of the game.

Let's get to those numbers...

Here are the stats from Week 10:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 76.9% 5 73.7% 19 N N 3-0
ANPY/A 6.800 11 8.614 26 N N 6-0
Turnovers 2 15 2 6 N N 8-2
Yds/Drive 29.07 16 34.07 19 N N 3-1
ToP/Drive 1:47.0 30 2:30.1 14 N N 5-0
Yds/Play 6.460 7 6.625 27 N N 3-0
First Downs/Drive 1.79 12 1.71 17 N N 4-1
3rd/4th Down 41.7% 12 46.7% 22 N N 4-2
Avg Start Pos 23.6 26 32.1 23 N Y 5-2
3 and Outs 5 16 5 9 N N 3-1
RZ Eff 100.0% 1 64.3% 15 Y N 6-3
Plays/Drive 4.500 27 5.143 10 N N 3-4
Penalty Yds / Play 0.317 3 1.000 13 Y N 5-3
RB Success 61.1% 3 42.9% 12 Y N 3-6
Yds/Carry 5.06 8 4.04 11 Y N 4-4
Net Punts Yds/Game 31.71 29 44.00 25 N Y 1-5
Ranking - Week (30) 14 20 21
Ranking - Season (288) 137 176 173

Some thoughts:

  • It is true that the Patriots "outplayed" the Colts in many facets of the game, but didn't "outplay" them in the one stat that truly counts.  This is the 2nd time this season the Colts have won a game that the Winning Stats have said they shouldn't have (Dolphins).  The Patriots have also had a game of their own where they were "outplayed" but won (Ravens).
  • Drive Success Rate was much better for the offense than it looked on TV.  I think I got my view skewed by the fact it was either a 3 and out, or a TD drive.  The offense did well in this.
  • The offense was worst in the league this week in Time of Possession / Drive.  You can take that with a grain of salt, as the last 3 TD drives took 2:04, 1:49, and 1:47.  And the last one clearly could have been a lot quicker.
  • Here's what I said about Red Zone efficiency on Sunday Morning:
    I think today's game will come down to which team scores Touchdowns in the Red Zone, and which one kicks Field Goals.

    The Colts were in the Red Zone 3 times, and scored 3 Touchdowns.  The Patriots were in the Red Zone 6 (!?!) times, came away with 3 Touchdowns, 2 FGs, and a fumble.  I'm getting good at this game.
  • Check out the Rushing Stats, both offensively and defensively!  It doesn't win games on its own, but it certainly helps.  They keep getting better by the week.
  • The Patriots were only above average on both sides of the ball in 2 stats (Avg. Start Pos. and Net Punt Yds), while the Colts were in 4 stats.  Maybe the Patriots didn't "outplay" the Colts as much as "experts" said they did.

Here are the season stats:

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 78.2% 1 Colts 68.2% 12 Jets 59-5 0.922
ANPY/A 7.891 2 Saints 4.464 5 Bills 74-5 0.937
Turnovers 1.11 4 Packers 1.89 6 Saints 65-15 0.813
Yds/Drive 38.40 1 Colts 29.33 19 Giants 63-8 0.887
ToP/Drive 2:44.5 16 Steelers 2:51.1 25 Saints 62-18 0.775
Yds/Play 6.356 2 Saints 4.914 7 Jets 61-11 0.847
First Downs/Drive 2.13 2 Patriots 1.70 21 Giants 53-12 0.815
3rd/4th Down 49.6% 2 Dolphins 44.8% 29 Cardinals 52-12 0.813
Avg Start Pos 28.0 25 Vikings 27.0 9 Ravens 68-15 0.819
3 and Outs 2.67 2 Cowboys 3.89 18 Texans 44-16 0.733
RZ Eff 71.4% 5 Buccaneers 61.5% 11 Steelers 42-24 0.636
Plays/Drive 6.043 3 Patriots 5.970 29 Giants 48-24 0.667
Penalty Yds / Play 0.618 2 Jaguars 0.865 11 Seahawks 75-52 0.591
RB Success 48.7% 10 Dolphins 47.3% 20 Steelers 50-26 0.658
Yds/Carry 3.85 25 Titans 4.27 15 49ers 31-36 0.463
Net Punts Yds/Game 38.92 19 Raiders 42.38 30 Patriots 32-32 0.500
Overall 2 Patriots 15 Saints

A couple things here:

  • Eleven of Sixteen stats the Colts are in the top 5 offensively, including the top 4.  Half of them they are in the top 2.  That's pretty awesome.
  • Defense keeps slowly getting better.  Check out Yards / Carry, as the defense is now in the top half of the league!  That is completely unexpected, and I'm thrilled
  • ANPY/A is winning at 93.7% this season, best of the stats.  I'm also impressed with the RB Success Rate, winning almost 2 of every 3 games.
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