Winning Stats Power Rankings: Week 11

by mgrex03 on Nov 21, 2009 8:18 PM EST in Stampede Blue Power Rankings Comment 7 comments

The Colts 35-34 victory over the Patriots last week made some movement at the top of our rankings, as both teams moved up a spot in the Adjusted Rankings. The Colts moved up to #3, and the Patriots now take the top spot, with the 2nd best Offense, and 8th best Defense.

As in previous weeks, I have both the Adjusted and Raw rankings, as well as the Adjusted Strength of Schedule and Future Schedule. Let's get to the rankings:

Here are the rankings for Week 11 (click on headers to sort):

Team	Power Rankings
	Non-Adjusted			Adjusted
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Patriots	1	12	2	2	8	1
Saints	3	1	1	3	4	2
Colts	2	15	3	1	14	3
Bengals	12	8	9	10	1	4
Steelers	4	13	7	4	13	5
Ravens	5	10	6	7	10	6
Packers	10	4	5	12	6	7
Giants	11	5	8	11	7	8
Vikings	7	7	4	9	12	9
Cowboys	6	19	12	6	22	10
Dolphins	15	18	14	13	16	11
Cardinals	19	6	13	19	5	12
Texans	14	11	11	14	18	13
Eagles	16	2	10	16	9	14
Jets	22	3	15	21	2	15
Broncos	17	16	16	17	11	16
Falcons	9	30	19	5	28	17
Chargers	8	27	18	8	31	18
49ers	27	9	23	27	3	19
Redskins	18	14	17	20	20	20
Bears	20	21	21	18	24	21
Seahawks	21	17	22	23	15	22
Panthers	23	22	24	22	19	23
Jaguars	13	29	20	15	30	24
Titans	25	24	25	25	17	25
Bills	30	20	26	28	21	26
Lions	26	31	28	26	29	27
Buccaneers	28	26	29	29	26	28
Chiefs	29	23	27	30	23	29
Rams	24	32	30	24	32	30
Browns	32	28	32	31	25	31
Raiders	31	25	31	32	27	32

Some thoughts:

The Colts are pretty even between Raw and Adjusted numbers, which means they've played pretty close to a league-average schedule. It's great to see the defensively numbers up as high as they are.
The Bengals are just as good on paper as they are on TV. Look for them to continue winning, as they have the easiest schedule going forward.
Five of the top 6 teams are in the AFC, including 3 teams in the AFC North. The team who makes it out of there should be favored against any team in the Super Bowl.

Here's the schedule strengths:

Team	Strength of Schedule
	Past			Future
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Browns	1	1	1	32	26	30
Bengals	4	2	2	31	32	32
Broncos	20	3	3	29	22	27
Dolphins	8	4	4	25	13	15
Buccaneers	7	9	5	7	3	4
Lions	15	5	6	2	25	10
Falcons	9	7	7	5	21	19
Titans	10	6	8	28	16	18
Ravens	6	13	9	20	8	4
Bears	3	16	10	8	11	6
Rams	11	12	11	3	30	25
Patriots	12	10	12	11	15	12
Jets	21	14	13	14	6	8
Bills	5	18	14	17	4	7
Steelers	16	15	15	18	23	21
Panthers	27	8	16	1	2	1
49ers	25	11	17	19	29	28
Chargers	18	23	18	26	27	29
Vikings	22	28	19	4	20	16
Colts	13	24	20	13	19	23
Seahawks	24	19	21	12	28	26
Cardinals	17	22	22	23	31	31
Texans	2	31	23	27	14	20
Packers	29	20	24	6	24	17
Raiders	23	21	25	9	7	3
Cowboys	19	24	26	21	10	13
Saints	26	26	27	30	12	22
Giants	28	29	28	16	5	9
Chiefs	32	17	29	22	18	24
Jaguars	14	32	30	9	17	11
Eagles	30	27	31	15	9	14
Redskins	31	30	32	24	1	2

A couple things here:

The Colts have played slightly tougher-than-average defenses, and some mediocre offenses, New England notwithstanding. It will be more of the same for the rest of the season, making the Colts' schedule very manageable.
The Titans play a very easy offensive schedule the rest of the season. I fully expect them to keep Vince Young next year, as long as he continues his current play. I'm ok with that.
A couple weeks ago I thought the Ravens would be a cinch to get to the playoffs. Now? Not so much. They'll have to win at least once against either the Colts or Steelers, and still have to go to Lambeau Field. I'm thinking they'll be on the outside looking in.

2 recs | Comment 7 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

People are making a big deal out of the AFC right now

But I really think the playoff teams are pretty much established right now.

Colts/Pats/Bengals/Steelers/San Diego

The only real question mark is the last spot….and while there’s the Texans//Broncos/Dolphins/Ravens all sitting in the wings…..

There won’t be a single division in the AFC that sends 3 playoff teams this year….

In fact, I expect that the Broncos will in fact make the playoffs… and the schedule is the reason why…

2 games vs. Chiefs
1 game vs. Raiders

2 tough games vs. the Colts and San Diego

I think people are quick to dismiss the Broncos….but even losing the game to the Chargers this weekend, still puts the Broncos ahead of all the other 4 loss teams in the AFC…

by DevilsReject on Nov 21, 2009 9:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Don't rate the Dolphins

Not with both their starting QB and RB out. I still think the Broncos will finish 10-6 at the minimum, which should be enough to get them in.

by eltharion_doa on Nov 21, 2009 11:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You can't rule

The Dolphins out….as they’re only 2 games out and the AFC East is still pretty much crap behind the Pats…

Keep in mind this division had 3 teams finish with identical records last year….so its easily possible that the Dolphins could sneak back in…but I would be willing to agree chances are they don’t…

by DevilsReject on Nov 21, 2009 11:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bengals worry me

A) They’re pretty good, and
B) Their past sked was really tough (they did well enough to be #2 in the AFC right now) , and
C) Future sked is cake. That’s C.A.K.E.

The worst they go will be 13-3 and 14-2 is quite possible.
That means, to keep HFA we have to suffer only one loss. If we tie them, we will likely lose the tie-breaker based on conf record or common opponents—they have an NFC loss but all our remaining games are AFC. Wow. Can you imagine going 14-2 and NOT having HFA? Of course they can lose in the divisional round, reverting HFA to us (assuming we win), like in 2006. hint hint hint

On any given day, Pitt can deliver a win, and of course the Pats. Damn, four extremely solid teams atop the AFC. Ravens not far behind quality-wise, but their record is (and I suspect as their passing game continues to wane and their D injuries expose them, their quality stats will slip as well). Houston too far back to be a real threat.

Chargers and Broncos are battling not only for the AFCW crown, but the easiest sked to close out the year. Orton picked a bad time to hurt his ankle. And the wrong day to stop sniffing glue.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Nov 22, 2009 12:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs