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Peyton in 2009 and Projecting What is to Come for #18 by Season's End

Peyton has been on a tear so far this season and despite "off" games against the Rams and the 49ers, is still on pace to break Dan Marino's Single Season record for passing yards. He's also on pace to break the NFL record for completion percentage in a season. With the season nearing the midway point and looking at our remaining schedule, I think I've come up with a reasonable estimation of what his numbers will look like by season's end. Check it out after the jump!

Star-divide

So far in 2009 Peyton's stats look like this:

187/263 (71.1%) 2227 yards, 8.5 ypa, 15 TDs, 4 ints. 109.3 Passer Rating

If Peyton were to stay at his current pace for the rest of the year, then his stats would look something like this:

427/601 (71%) 5090 yards, 8.5 ypa, 34 TDs, 9 ints. 109.2 Passer Rating

Somehow I seriously doubt that Manning will have over 600 attempts even with our inconsistent rushing attack. So I think that these numbers are somewhat misleading and his pass attempts over the next 9 gamea will probably decrease, if only slightly. Looking at our current remaining schedule: Hou., NE, @ Balt., @ Hou., Ten., Denver, @Jacksonville, NYJ, @ Buffalo; I only see 3 games where Manning might not get 300 yards: Baltimore, Tennessee and Buffalo. He might not have 300 yards against Baltimore but only because I think that we'll probably have a comftorable enough lead that the offense will just try to run out the clock. The next game I see that he might not get 300 yards is Tennessee. Now I know that their pass defense has been crap yet the Titans usually play us tough and they seemed to have new life aginst Jacksonville. History also shows that when VY plays the Colts, it's usually a close game. (2006: Wk 5: 14-13 Colts Win. Manning: 20/31 166 yards 2 TDs 1 int.; Wk 13: 20-17 Titans Win. Manning 21/28 351 yards 1 TD 2 ints; 2007: Wk 2: 22-20 Colts Win. Manning 28/42 312 yards 1 TD 1 int.; Wk. 17: 16-10 Titans Win. Manning: 14/16 95 yards in 1st qtr.) Finally, by the Buffalo game, Caldwell probably will have started the team's yearly ritual of 'resting its starters for the playoffs".

With all this in mind, assuming Peyton sits out the last game against Buffalo, I see Manning's statistics by season's end looking something like this:

414/575 (72%) 5095 yards, 8.9 ypa, 35 TDs,10 ints. 112.0 Passer Rating

If he actually plays in all 16 games like in 2006 than I'd see his stats looking something like this:

432/597 (72.4%) 5205 yards, 8.7 ypa, 38 TDs, 10 ints. 113.0 Passer Rating

Plz Rate and Comment as I'd love to hear your opinions.  And Go Colts!

Poll
Is this prediction accurate?
Yes
24 votes
No
16 votes

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This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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I might be a bit too optimistic.

"Pressure is something you feel if you don't know what the hell you're doing."-Peyton Manning

by P0RKINS2 on Nov 3, 2009 5:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Nah.

His average is extremely high. His TD:INT ratio is fantastic. I think it’s realistic to assume his play remains above average – for him, that is. =-)

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Nov 3, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If manning is anywhere near the record

he wants it. That said, I don’t see him being anywhere near the record.

by slash196 on Nov 3, 2009 5:59 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Why not?

He’s averaging that through 7 games and I expect his average to go up after the Texans game. He’s always good against the Texans.

"Pressure is something you feel if you don't know what the hell you're doing."-Peyton Manning

by P0RKINS2 on Nov 3, 2009 6:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

God I hope Caldwell doesn't do what Dungy did

Dungy resting players in 2005 killed the Colts playoff run.
The one year he didn’t rest anyone was the year Colts went to SB…

So, considering Caldwell did relatively well fixing areas that needed to be fixed from Dungy era… I hope he doesn’t rest players unless absolutely necessary (injured ones only) and play them through all 16 games.

Oh no!

by Bluedude on Nov 3, 2009 9:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

+18

Pressure is somethig you feel when you don't know what you're doing!
-Chuck Knoll

by thefrozz on Nov 4, 2009 1:01 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's not so much "resting"

as “keeping them off the field to prevent injury”.

I say if we win three more games we pull Mathis and Freeney completely.

by slash196 on Nov 4, 2009 4:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+93 and +98

"Pressure is something you feel if you don't know what the hell you're doing."-Peyton Manning

by P0RKINS2 on Nov 4, 2009 5:51 PM EST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Correlation does not imply causation.

Just because that series of events happened doesn’t mean that they happened because of Dungy’s decision to rest/not rest. I’m going to need evidence that Dungy’s resting of our starters has a direct relationship to our performance in playoff games.

Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.

Man, I need a life...

Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: Viz Media (The creators of my absolute favorite show of all-time and inspiration to my avatar, Naruto) just announced a partnership with the channel Disney XD to bring the English-dubbed episodes of Naruto Shippuden (The continuation of the Naruto series) to that station with a new episode airing each week, starting, well, NOW. With the series recording I just put on it, this is one of the greatest days I've had in a long time. I'm not kidding. I love the show that much.

by Cassieper on Nov 6, 2009 8:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't get involved in arguments often

(I like to have some extra time sometimes), but this is one that I will get heavily involved in if it pops up again.

Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.

Man, I need a life...

Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: Viz Media (The creators of my absolute favorite show of all-time and inspiration to my avatar, Naruto) just announced a partnership with the channel Disney XD to bring the English-dubbed episodes of Naruto Shippuden (The continuation of the Naruto series) to that station with a new episode airing each week, starting, well, NOW. With the series recording I just put on it, this is one of the greatest days I've had in a long time. I'm not kidding. I love the show that much.

by Cassieper on Nov 6, 2009 8:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs


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