Week 8: Inside the Numbers

by mgrex03 on Nov 3, 2009 11:41 PM EST in Game Recaps Comment 6 comments

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

8 Games and Counting. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

What a game on Sunday. It's been a while since we all had to sweat 60 minutes of Colts Football. Here's some notes from this weekend:

From Elias: The last RB to throw a TD pass for the Colts was in 1984, when Curtis Dickey threw a 63 yard Touchdown pass to Tracy Porter. This was the 2nd game as the Indianapolis Colts. The last time a non-QB threw a TD pass? Ken Dilger in 2001, a 39 yarder to Marvin Harrison. I guess the Colts don't do this very often, huh?
Also from Elias: A record the Colts set in 2006 was broken last night by the Saints. The Saints have allowed 154 points this season, which is the most points allowed for a 7-0 team in NFL history. The previous record was 153, by your Super Bowl Champion Colts. Elam's late field goal did more than just ~~cover~~ beat the spread!
In the middle of the 4th quarter, Dwight Freeney recorded a sack of Alex Smith, setting the franchise record by getting a sack in 8 straight games. Only 2 more to tie the NFL record.
Manning threw his 2nd most passes in a game without throwing a TD pass, with 48. His record? 50 passes in this very forgettable game.
That's now 16 straight wins. Let's keep the train rolling!

Let's get to the numbers...

Here are the Colts' stats for Week 8:

Statistic	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Off/Def Above	Off/Def Below	Record
DSR	63.6%	21	64.3%	8	N	N	8-2
ANPY/A	7.096	8	4.361	11	Y	N	8-1
Turnovers	0	1	2	7	Y	N	5-2
Yds/Drive	31.54	10	24.58	7	Y	N	9-0
ToP/Drive	2:34.9	14	2:12.2	7	N	N	7-1
Yds/Play	5.616	11	5.463	15	N	N	7-0
First Downs/Drive	1.54	16	1.33	7	N	N	7-2
3rd/4th Down	45.0%	9	20.0%	3	Y	N	5-0
Avg Start Pos	29.5	13	21.5	3	N	N	5-4
3 and Outs	4	10	6	2	N	N	6-1
RZ Eff	32.1%	24	100.0%	20	N	Y	3-4
Plays/Drive	5.615	10	4.500	4	Y	N	7-1
Penalty Yds / Play	0.521	9	0.926	5	Y	N	3-4
RB Success	42.9%	17	35.3%	3	N	N	0-1
Yds/Carry	2.90	25	6.28	23	N	Y	2-2
Net Punts Yds/Game	41.00	14	46.00	24	N	N	6-0
Ranking - Week (26)	10		5		11
Ranking - Season (232)	107		59		64

Some thoughts:

This was by far the worst Drive Success Rate of the season for the Colts Offense, as the 49ers were even better than their season average. I think this is the main reason the Colts struggled, and I said on my game preview that this stat would be key. Turns out it was the reason the game was so close. The Colts defense was pretty good though.
The Colts have been Above Average on both sides of the ball in all 7 games so far this season in ANPY/A. But today, however, this stat was not all Peyton Manning.
The 49ers were only 2/10 on 3rd down. Yes, that is correct. 20% Third Down Conversion for the defense. This is great to see.
Colts defense were also 2nd in Three and Outs this week, forcing 6 of them. Spectacular.
Here's why YPC is not the greatest stat for rushing: The Colts were 4th worst in YPC, basically because of one 64 yard run. Take a look at RB Success Rate: 35.5%, 3rd best. The Colts did a very good job stopping the run, other than that one play.
You'll probably hear the media talking about how awful the Colts played, how they aren't really that good. Guess what? This game by the Colts was still in the top 1/4 of all games played this year. Just because the offense struggles doesn't mean the Colts automatically struggle any more. Scary thought, huh?

Here's how it looks for the season:

Statistic	Offense	Rank	Best	Defense	Rank	Best	Record	Win %
DSR	78.4%	1	Colts	66.3%	9	Saints	52-4	0.929
ANPY/A	8.751	1	Colts	3.685	4	Saints	62-4	0.939
Turnovers	0.86	2	Packers	1.71	12	Eagles	53-12	0.815
Yds/Drive	40.36	1	Colts	27.64	12	Eagles	56-7	0.889
ToP/Drive	2:57.7	4	Patriots	2:52.5	25	Saints	53-15	0.779
Yds/Play	6.509	2	Cowboys	4.565	4	Broncos	54-10	0.844
First Downs/Drive	2.11	3	Patriots	1.65	21	Cardinals	45-10	0.818
3rd/4th Down	51.0%	2	Dolphins	41.4%	26	Cardinals	42-8	0.840
Avg Start Pos	28.3	21	Bears	26.4	3	Texans	56-12	0.824
3 and Outs	2.43	2	Cowboys	3.57	22	Texans	39-12	0.765
RZ Eff	68.0%	12	49ers	59.2%	9	Redskins	35-19	0.648
Plays/Drive	6.200	3	Patriots	6.054	28	Giants	41-18	0.695
Penalty Yds / Play	0.671	4	Jaguars	0.750	19	Seahawks	60-41	0.594
RB Success	47.6%	13	Dolphins	48.8%	22	Eagles	40-16	0.714
Yds/Carry	3.70	26	Titans	4.48	23	49ers	26-29	0.473
Net Punts Yds/Game	41.58	8	Raiders	42.29	28	Patriots	27-24	0.529
Overall	2		Patriots	12		Eagles

A couple thoughts here:

The Colts dropped to the #2 offense behind the idle Patriots. I think a big part of that is the DSR stat, which dropped 3%, but that's a big drop when you get to the top end of the distribution curve. I hope they can reclaim that next week.
They are still in the top 4 in the best 8 stats, leading in 3 different stats.
Red Zone offense really struggled this week, and it shows up here, dropping the Colts to 12th from 4th place just a week ago. Need to get that back up.
The Colts keep pulling themselves out of the hole created by the Miami game, creeping up to 12th in the league defensively. That's the highest they've been so far this season.
Colts opponents have to go the 3rd most yards to score a touchdown, which, I think, is helping the defense as well. They aren't getting put against the wall, so they are playing much looser.

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Jason Elam's FG prevented NO from covering the spread.

Covering the spread occurs when the favored team scores more than the points spread. Elam’s FG prevented this from happening. I’m sure it was a typo and you already knew this though.

"Flying blind on a rocket cycle?" -Vultan, from the movie "Flash Gordon", for no particular reason...

by peytonsurdaddy on Nov 4, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yep, you're right

Fixed it.

by mgrex03 on Nov 4, 2009 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that you belive that the drive sucess rate was the key reason the colts struggled, and as far as what you can get from the numbers i agree. now going by actually seeing the game ill say that the reason behind the drive sucess rate failure is the offensive line. i think it all boils down to them the main culprit being (pollack). it seemed that was the big reason for the inconsistance in mannings passes and the high pass attempt numbers. is there anyway to calculate the amount of times a defense presures (knocks down/ sacks) a QB and figure out how often that effects the probablilty of the drive being sucessfull??

i know it probably sounds obvious what the awnser is to it but i think there would be a way to calculate the probablilty of pressures and how that corisponds with the sucess rate. hope this makes sense i may be going to long and losing my thought prosses if so ill try again later :)

GO COLTS!!! 09 IS OURS!!!

by ANGELSFAITH on Nov 4, 2009 12:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

if there is a way it would probably have to be broken down into pressures per set of downs

i know that they keep track of pressures on the QB so i would think it would be possible

GO COLTS!!! 09 IS OURS!!!

by ANGELSFAITH on Nov 4, 2009 12:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you can find a site with pressures

I’d gladly look at them. I’ve looked in the past and come up empty.

I also think it would be more useful to look up pressures with 3rd/4th down conversion rate, as those are the key downs where getting pressure can cause a drive to stall immediately. While a sack on 1st or 2nd down certainly will help a drive stall, the offense still has a chance to redeem themselves on 3rd down.

by mgrex03 on Nov 4, 2009 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs