Week 8: Inside the Numbers

What a game on Sunday.  It's been a while since we all had to sweat 60 minutes of Colts Football.  Here's some notes from this weekend:

  • From Elias:  The last RB to throw a TD pass for the Colts was in 1984, when Curtis Dickey threw a 63 yard Touchdown pass to Tracy Porter.  This was the 2nd game as the Indianapolis Colts.  The last time a non-QB threw a TD pass?  Ken Dilger in 2001, a 39 yarder to Marvin Harrison. I guess the Colts don't do this very often, huh?
  • Also from Elias:  A record the Colts set in 2006 was broken last night by the Saints.  The Saints have allowed 154 points this season, which is the most points allowed for a 7-0 team in NFL history.  The previous record was 153, by your Super Bowl Champion Colts.  Elam's late field goal did more than just cover beat the spread!
  • In the middle of the 4th quarter, Dwight Freeney recorded a sack of Alex Smith, setting the franchise record by getting a sack in 8 straight games.  Only 2 more to tie the NFL record.
  • Manning threw his 2nd most passes in a game without throwing a TD pass, with 48.  His record?  50 passes in this very forgettable game.
  • That's now 16 straight wins.  Let's keep the train rolling!

Let's get to the numbers...

Here are the Colts' stats for Week 8:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 63.6% 21 64.3% 8 N N 8-2
ANPY/A 7.096 8 4.361 11 Y N 8-1
Turnovers 0 1 2 7 Y N 5-2
Yds/Drive 31.54 10 24.58 7 Y N 9-0
ToP/Drive 2:34.9 14 2:12.2 7 N N 7-1
Yds/Play 5.616 11 5.463 15 N N 7-0
First Downs/Drive 1.54 16 1.33 7 N N 7-2
3rd/4th Down 45.0% 9 20.0% 3 Y N 5-0
Avg Start Pos 29.5 13 21.5 3 N N 5-4
3 and Outs 4 10 6 2 N N 6-1
RZ Eff 32.1% 24 100.0% 20 N Y 3-4
Plays/Drive 5.615 10 4.500 4 Y N 7-1
Penalty Yds / Play 0.521 9 0.926 5 Y N 3-4
RB Success 42.9% 17 35.3% 3 N N 0-1
Yds/Carry 2.90 25 6.28 23 N Y 2-2
Net Punts Yds/Game 41.00 14 46.00 24 N N 6-0
Ranking - Week (26) 10 5 11
Ranking - Season (232) 107 59 64

Some thoughts:

  • This was by far the worst Drive Success Rate of the season for the Colts Offense, as the 49ers were even better than their season average.  I think this is the main reason the Colts struggled, and I said on my game preview that this stat would be key.  Turns out it was the reason the game was so close.  The Colts defense was pretty good though.
  • The Colts have been Above Average on both sides of the ball in all 7 games so far this season in ANPY/A.  But today, however, this stat was not all Peyton Manning.
  • The 49ers were only 2/10 on 3rd down.  Yes, that is correct.  20% Third Down Conversion for the defense.  This is great to see.
  • Colts defense were also 2nd in Three and Outs this week, forcing 6 of them.  Spectacular.
  • Here's why YPC is not the greatest stat for rushing:  The Colts were 4th worst in YPC, basically because of one 64 yard run.  Take a look at RB Success Rate:  35.5%, 3rd best.  The Colts did a very good job stopping the run, other than that one play.
  • You'll probably hear the media talking about how awful the Colts played, how they aren't really that good.  Guess what?  This game by the Colts was still in the top 1/4 of all games played this year.  Just because the offense struggles doesn't mean the Colts automatically struggle any more.  Scary thought, huh?

Here's how it looks for the season:

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 78.4% 1 Colts 66.3% 9 Saints 52-4 0.929
ANPY/A 8.751 1 Colts 3.685 4 Saints 62-4 0.939
Turnovers 0.86 2 Packers 1.71 12 Eagles 53-12 0.815
Yds/Drive 40.36 1 Colts 27.64 12 Eagles 56-7 0.889
ToP/Drive 2:57.7 4 Patriots 2:52.5 25 Saints 53-15 0.779
Yds/Play 6.509 2 Cowboys 4.565 4 Broncos 54-10 0.844
First Downs/Drive 2.11 3 Patriots 1.65 21 Cardinals 45-10 0.818
3rd/4th Down 51.0% 2 Dolphins 41.4% 26 Cardinals 42-8 0.840
Avg Start Pos 28.3 21 Bears 26.4 3 Texans 56-12 0.824
3 and Outs 2.43 2 Cowboys 3.57 22 Texans 39-12 0.765
RZ Eff 68.0% 12 49ers 59.2% 9 Redskins 35-19 0.648
Plays/Drive 6.200 3 Patriots 6.054 28 Giants 41-18 0.695
Penalty Yds / Play 0.671 4 Jaguars 0.750 19 Seahawks 60-41 0.594
RB Success 47.6% 13 Dolphins 48.8% 22 Eagles 40-16 0.714
Yds/Carry 3.70 26 Titans 4.48 23 49ers 26-29 0.473
Net Punts Yds/Game 41.58 8 Raiders 42.29 28 Patriots 27-24 0.529
Overall 2 Patriots 12 Eagles

A couple thoughts here:

  • The Colts dropped to the #2 offense behind the idle Patriots.  I think a big part of that is the DSR stat, which dropped 3%, but that's a big drop when you get to the top end of the distribution curve.  I hope they can reclaim that next week.
  • They are still in the top 4 in the best 8 stats, leading in 3 different stats.
  • Red Zone offense really struggled this week, and it shows up here, dropping the Colts to 12th from 4th place just a week ago.  Need to get that back up.
  • The Colts keep pulling themselves out of the hole created by the Miami game, creeping up to 12th in the league defensively.  That's the highest they've been so far this season.
  • Colts opponents have to go the 3rd most yards to score a touchdown, which, I think, is helping the defense as well.  They aren't getting put against the wall, so they are playing much looser.
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