hell 75% of the MCM fan base was throwing him under the bus last season and a good many of them was against him at the start of this season.

I have no emotional stake in VY’s career, but I compare this to the Favre situation (Jeez, much as I complain about him, and about every conversation turning to “how does this affect Brett?” I go and do it myself! Shoot me!).

Based on last year, nobody outside his family had reason to have faith in VY. Based on last year (a secretly injury-plagued year, like Folgers Crystals), I really expected Favre to stink it up and proved how washed up he was. Um, wrong and wrong. He’s great, better than ever, and a perfect fit for Minny. Good for them and him. But until he proved it, my mental image was of last year and I had no faith in him.

Same for VY—I think a lot of people had very good reasons to believe he was destined for a backup career. It did not seem to be a physical tool thing, but an emotional/psychological durability thing. The midnight ride was, at the same time, comical and horriffic. I am glad he did not do any harm to himself and maybe it was all overblown, but the stench of that—if true—that a benched superstar top draft pick considers suicide because he can’t take the pressure, just makes the majority of football fans back away nervously thinking that if we close our eyes it’ll all go away. Ridicule is another reaction.

Like with Favre, it looks like I am slowly being proven wrong, but Favre has a massive body of work behind him and 10 wins this year to convince me. VY has a couple decent years, one fractured season, and now 5 wins that weren’t all him. I liked what I saw from VY two weeks ago, as a football fan, not as a Colts fan.

and winning a bunch of games almost makes the QB suspect.

You are accepting the fallacy that a TEAM win reflects solely on the QB. Allow me to direct your gaze to the Colts/Chargers 2007 reg season game in the rain in SD. Chargers won, so Rivers must get the credit, right? Let’s see, he went 13 for 24, with 0 TDs and 2 INTs and a 30.6 passer rating, plus his counterpart threw SIX picks, and his team won because of two ST returns for TDs and the opponent’s kicker honked a gimme FG at the close. Rivers sucked but his team won. Therefore, using the logic you imply above, he played good football. Go figure.

I really hate this guy, but Rivers is a very good QB who has generally had a top D and running game to support him, as well as Gates and LDT in his prime, but Rivers is accepted as good because his production supports that view. He puts up the numbers as an individual QB, as well as TEAM wins. VY has only done half of that, and it’s not clear that HE has actually done it.

I am looking at his season game chart from 2007, his soph season. They went 10-6 and that probably makes you happy and ready to fellate VY. But his QB ratings that season included a 36, 34, 38, 48, 50, 60, 64…. stinkers! Now let’s see how the team did in those games. 5-2. Allow me to repeat louder: 5 WINS DESPITE A QB RATING NO HIGHER THAN 65. To most observers, it seems that the TEAM won DESPITE VY at QB, not because of him. I did not see those games, so cannot testify as to his suckitude or not, but it does not look like good football to a distant observer.

Okay, so in 2007 they get to the playoffs and face SD… time for VY to shine under pressure, right? 54 rating and a loss. A TEAM loss, true, much like the Colts losing to the same SD team the following week. But the 54 rating seems to be part of a pattern, not an aberration.

He is currently playing at a QB rating level 20 points over his career average—if it is sustainable, he has truly turned a corner and will be good. If he rebounds to around 70 in lifetime passer rating, I think it’s clear that the past five games were part of an illusion. Just a note on other QBs who have had skyrocketing seasons 20 pts above their past career—Manning is a lifetime 95 rating or so, and has not matched his 2004 rating of 121 since. Brady, 93/117 in 2007. Same thing. Enjoy good Vince while you can, because history says it is not permanent.

By whose standards? I won’t even go game by game to illustrate all the stinkers, but here are some first time starter QB seasons to ponder in the past decade (non-rookies noted)

                         pct comp TD INT Rtg
Brees (2nd yr) 61% 17 16 77
Matt Ryan 61% 16 11 88
Ben R 66% 17 11 98
Stafford (pro rated) 54% 17 26 62
VY 52% 12 13 67
Alex Smith (2nd yr) 58% 16 16 75
Flacco 60% 14 12 80
A Rodgers (4th yr) 64% 28 13 94
Rivers (3rd yr) 62% 22 9 92
Cutler (2nd yr) 64% 20 14 88
Romo (2nd yr) 65% 19 13 95
Orton 52% 9 13 60

Some of those are impressive, some not. Some 1st rounders, some not. VY’s totals are 13% below the avg completion pct and 18% below the avg passer rating. His TDs are 30% below the avg and his INTS are 7% below avg. (which is good).

Using only TRUE rookies, VY’s averages are still 10%, 15%, 9% (which is good), and 12% below the averages.

VY’s low number of attempts supports the contention that he was just not such a big part of the offense, and he was the a QB! I have not included true bottom feeders, but VY was the #3 pick his year, so it’s reasonable to include other 1st round type picks. I dunno, he is the third lowest rating on this list and the lowest completion pct. There are two other ROYs on the list and both looked a lot better than Young—maybe he won ROY in a weak year for competition…..

Ben R had a similar knock against him in that he played on a run-first team with a great D, but he also had a 98 rating as a rookie and went 14-1 plus his team won the SB, and then a couple years later he HAD TO carry the team and threw 32 TDs and only 11 INTs with a rating about 104, so he has proven that he can be productive without considering TEAM wins.

Basically, VY’s rookie year is not that impressive given the context, and he is probably another Kyle Orton, at least so far. He could be a new man this season, but if not, have fun with Orton v 2.0.