Why I'm not sold on Vince Young.... (yet?)
by shake n bake on Dec 1, 2009 11:28 PM EST
in Colts Analysis
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PrintThe reasons why people are buying into Vince Young now are as obvious as the reasons most people didn't coming into this year. After two years as a sub-par (and regressing) passer landed him on the bench he's returned to the starting lineup and the Titans have gone from 0-6 to a playoff possible 5-6. He's also played the best football we've seen from him since his days at Texas.
But I still have some reservations.
There's no denying that VY is playing some very good football at the moment. Young currently ranks 8th in the league in passing DVOA! (Football Outsiders' per play value stat). PFR's ANY/A+ (Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt scale to a OPS+ like scale where 100 is average, 110 is 10% above average, etc) rates his season to date at 115. That's the same as Tom Brady's career rating. The issue is obviously sample size, the immortal Todd Collins put up a ANY/A+ of 136 (just a touch above Drew Brees' season to date) over 105 attempts in 2007. Vince has 132 attempts so far this year. If he doesn't regress to the mean hard (like Todd Collins did in the 2007 playoffs) then his rebirth as a NFL starter will be undeniable, but the sample isn't big enough for any ass crowning yet.
My second reservation is that crediting VY with the Titans turnaround ignores 3 factors that are much more important in my mind.
1. The Titans are leaning harder on Chris Johnson.
Over the Titans 6 game losing streak Johnson touched the ball 111 times. Over the 5 games with VY under center he's gotten 139 touches. 28 more touches in one less game. That putting the ball in your teams best players hands more often led to more wins shouldn't shock anyone. It could be argued that the winning led to the running, that doesn't seem to be the case given that poor LenDale's workload has decreased since the QB change.
2. The defense is playing defense.
The Titans D allowed less than 20 points just once in the first 6 games, in the last 5 they've only given up more than 20 once. Even without counting the beatdown the Patriots laid on the Titans D they are allowing 9 points per game less over the last 5 games than over the first 5 (with the Pats game included the difference is 15 per game).
3. The schedule has softened.
The Titans divisional games against the Jags and Texans show legitimate turnaround, but in the remaining 5 games the Titans started off rough losing to the Steelers, and Jets (with Kris Jenkins edition), hit rock bottom at the toughest point in their schedule against the Colts and Patriots, and they have rebounded while playing the Warner-less Cards, the Bills and the Niners. That doesn't look like a coincidence to me. The Titans successes and failures in non-division games map pretty well to the strength of their opponent. Not a surprise, but something that hasn't really been picked up on too much in the popular storyline.
Vince Young has played extremely well so far this year, anyone that tells you different hasn't followed him this year or has a serious bias. However, at this point it's important to remember that ultimately substandard QBs have put up numbers this great in these size of samples before and that a lot of other factors have played into the Titans turnaround beyond the change of faces at the most recognized position.
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i thot the other titans qb was kerry collins
"You only get intercepted when you don't know what your doing, I knew what I was Doing".
Johnny Unitas
by 805 on Dec 1, 2009 11:56 PM EST reply actions
he is
Todd Collins had a hot run with the Redskins in 2007. He’s just an example of a not too great QB, that randomly caught fire for a short period.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Dec 2, 2009 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
Fair enough.
But Todd Collins WAS really, really good in late 2007.
DannoE
"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
Derek Anderson
Another example.
Young’s certainly doing better than I think most expected, but it’ll be telling to see how he goes against tougher opponents, especially now that the film on his return is building up.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 2, 2009 11:36 PM EST up reply actions
He's played like an NFL starter so far
@shake n bake
I am not convince the Titan’s can depend on him either, but VY has had some good play. It would seem stupid to take the ball away from CJ, regardless how good VY is playing anyways. But they didn’t win with that 99 yd TD drive because of Chris Johnson, though CJ remains a big part of their success overall. Neither does he throw for almost 400 yds on the same game if he’s a slouch. I’m not sure how good he can be or will be, but he’s a threat if he keeps playing at this level.
I'm somewhere in the middle on this.
Part of me agrees with you, shake, but the other part of me whispers that VY’s first stint was too early for him to really understand what he was doing, and that this time around after some time on the bench to acclimate to the league he’s actually improved his game. Your points are all valid, particularly the Johnson one, but I do wonder if VY might actually have become… something more than substandard.
semisubstandard
He’ll never be a top 50% QB in this league. If he keeps this up, he won’t be an obvious weak point, but he’s never going to be the kind of leader and accurate passer that a team will need to consistently challenge for titles. He throws like a girl and the playbook is limited due to his inability to read and use the whole field. Eventually those weaknesses are going to catch up to him. He’s a great athlete and dynamic and can sometimes make something from nothing, but that only partly makes up for his other deficiencies. A quick and disciplined D will always be able to contain him. I’m not the slightest bit worried about him, even if he completes 75% of his passes on Sunday. If the Colts can contain Johnson, there’s no way Young beats them. And that’ll be the case for years.
I agree that the time off helped him grow up and improve. I just don’t think his ceiling is anything more than a space filler QB.
First
Do you forget that he already has beaten you and as a lesser passer at the time
Also about young throwing like a girl and a limited playbook if you had watched any film of him at all you would know he is throwing the deep ball with incredible touch and if not for a couple of perfectly thrown drops his numbers would have been even better. On the playbook they have said they are using the full playbook and just adding the things that he is capable of doing with his legs when dinger set up this particular playbook last year it was wtih young in mind and of his inability to understand a play the 4th down play was a play quote unquote written in the sand
Nobody punished like Earl and No one was nastier than Ryan
"....part of me whispers that VY’s first stint was too early for him "
@LTTelamon,
That’s exactly what has crossed my mind. Hopefully we wont see anything good out of VY this game (or CJ for that matter). So lets hope Freeney will be available to welcome him with open arms this sunday.
ALL HE DOES IS WIN
TILL HE DOESNT WIN
Never doubt Peyton Manning, he’ll make you look silly
Joseph Addai is a good running back.
Im a douchebag, an asshole, and I'm rarely right.
No way.
When he stops winning he’s not winning anymore?
"We really feel like we can go 10-0 in these last ten games...we’re trying to do something nobody has ever done." Chris Johnson
"This is the only building in the NHL that the fans get up and cheer for no apparent reason just to support us." - Dan Ellis
Official Graphic Designer/Researcher/Grammar Police of MCM.
Official Graphic Goon of OTF.
by Aditya T (smashville) on Dec 2, 2009 1:13 AM EST up reply actions
no
when he stops winning he won’t be referred to as a winner, he’ll be referred to as someone that was drafted too high, didn’t have the faith of his lockerroom, and was mentally unstable. Sound familiar?
Who has the most wins over the past 3 years? Past 10 years? Those teams/QBs aren’t described as ‘winners’, because the media doesn’t need made up accolades and cliches to sell them. They need something to sell people like Vince Young, Kyle Orton, etc… Anytime the cliche brigade starts marching in full force, the media is attempting to romanticize something, and they only need to romanticize something that isn’t … true :)
Never doubt Peyton Manning, he’ll make you look silly
Joseph Addai is a good running back.
Im a douchebag, an asshole, and I'm rarely right.
by SpazMo on Dec 2, 2009 2:47 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
We’ve seen this good side of VY before. He played very good his rookie season leading the Titans to a lot of wins but then his head got huge and he imploded. It’s bound to happen again imo. The first time something doesn’t go his way he’ll mysteriously vanish into the night trying to off himself like last year.
I think this 5 game winning streak did/is doing a lot to keep him in Tennessee for a while, which is very good for the Colts.
He's like Willie Beaman
but give credit to the guy. Who knows what kind of issues he had and to play well again is still impressive. He’s a threat and I’m expecting a similar game as the one we had against Miami.
"We’re only going to score 17 points? haha...OK" - Tom Brady
by BlueMark1821 on Dec 2, 2009 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
he wasn't a good passer as a rookie
but he did had a good amount of value with his feet
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Dec 2, 2009 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
All you need to know
When Vince ran off the field after the win against the Cards, he held up 9 fingers. Know why? He was referring to his 9 wins in a row as a starter. Not the Titan’s 5 wins in a row. His. Sure, everything is hunky dory when the Titans are winning, but I would imagine at some point in the not too distant future, Vinsanity will face some adversity. Let’s see how things play out then. Maybe he will find the bullets. (OOOOOH, too much?)
The Shogun of Harlem
He was referring to Steve McNair's jersey number, #9.
DannoE
"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
by DannoE on Dec 2, 2009 8:03 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Obviously
"We really feel like we can go 10-0 in these last ten games...we’re trying to do something nobody has ever done." Chris Johnson
"This is the only building in the NHL that the fans get up and cheer for no apparent reason just to support us." - Dan Ellis
Official Graphic Designer/Researcher/Grammar Police of MCM.
Official Graphic Goon of OTF.
by Aditya T (smashville) on Dec 2, 2009 8:51 AM EST up reply actions
Makes a lot more sense than
snonuff’s explanation.
"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: What should you do if a hot dog vendor gives you a free hot dog? Why, throw it on the ground, of course.
If so . . .
I stand corrected. I still think he is somewhere between suck and mediocre though, and it is just a matter of time . . .
The Shogun of Harlem
Yeah.
That was too much.
"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: What should you do if a hot dog vendor gives you a free hot dog? Why, throw it on the ground, of course.
Reeeeer!
This kitty’s got claws. Sorry to offend. I should have known that even though you seem hip and edgy with your Andy Samberg reference, you have a soft, more sensitive side as shown by your reference to a French silent film actor.
The Shogun of Harlem
there's no way Cass knows who Jean Renoir is, he's terrible at movies
he got the quote from me (and I had to look up who he was). I posted it in an open thread after I first heard it because I liked it.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
I had to look it up as well
. . . and I’m just pullin his tail. However, if he doesn’t like what I said about Vinsanity, he would really hate the exchange I had with my buddy who’s a Titans fan when I asked him if he cried when The Warrior died.
The Shogun of Harlem
Interesting.......
"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: What should you do if a hot dog vendor gives you a free hot dog? Why, throw it on the ground, of course.
It's odd.
I seem to get a lot of things from you. That quote was too perfect though, and I was already looking for a permanent replacement for the top half of my sig.
"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: What should you do if a hot dog vendor gives you a free hot dog? Why, throw it on the ground, of course.
Hip and edgy is about
the worst way somebody could describe me. I just thought the video was funny when my brother showed it to me a couple weeks ago. Funny Youtube videos probably make up more than 75% of my Random Facts of the Week.
I never said that the reference offended me personally, but I do think it was a little too much. That’s just my opinion.
"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: What should you do if a hot dog vendor gives you a free hot dog? Why, throw it on the ground, of course.
did I see this over on 18to88 already?
Just teasing. I agree though, he’s looking good, but 5 games against weaker competition, with a stronger D and a more effective Chris Johnson isn’t going to convince me…yet
"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."
It's eerie how similar this
post is to The Vince Young Files, Volume 5. I guess DZ and Shake just think alike.
"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: What should you do if a hot dog vendor gives you a free hot dog? Why, throw it on the ground, of course.
I didn't notice that until after you guys mentioned it
I’ve been slacking horribly on my 18to88 reading.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
shame on you
"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."
i will add one more factor to this list
Enter the 0-6 Factor – he is as relax as anyone could be in his position, remember when he got called upon titans were 0-6 ,so no pressure on VY at all just plain fun ,there is nothing to loose and no one expects the team to do worse than what they had , bu from now on we will know more as now everything has change and titans are in the playoff hunt ,now is for real , now the fun is kind of over and its time for business, lets see how he plays under pressure.
I disagree.
He’s basically playing for his career here. It’s make it or brake it for VY.
That’s a fair amount of pressure IMO.
No pressure?
Isn’t this opportunity widely seen as his last shot in the NFL (or at least with the Titans)? And isn’t pretty much every game for them now a playoff game?
I haven’t bought into VY yet, but the no pressure argument seems inherently flawed.
"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: What should you do if a hot dog vendor gives you a free hot dog? Why, throw it on the ground, of course.
This is a pretty good analysis, Shake.
You’ve been my favorite commentator over here for awhile, and this is why.
I mean, look, for most Titans fans, when the team was 0-6 and they decided to put in VY, I figured that we’d hit rock bottom but then decided to go get a jackhammer and keep digging the hole even deeper. And with that said, I think a lot of Titans fans are cautiously optimistic at best about VY this time around. But so far he’s done everything he’s been asked to do, and he’s done it well, including throwing for over 350 yards with no INTs. Also: it’s not that hard to imagine that he’s grown up some. He’s older, he’s got some different mentors, and if the papers are to be believed, he’s done away with his old posse. He’s also taken on a role in Steve McNair’s family that can only add a sense of gravity and maturity to his overall mental state.
Is it forever? I have no idea.
But if the press is to be believed, then VY seems to understand that it’s a job. That everyone loves you when you win, and similarly, they hate you when you lose, so ultimately their opinion is irrelevant. That’s growth. And to pretend that VY cannot grow is, bottom line, insulting, and not just to him. People can and do grow, even NFL QBs.
On the other stuff, it’s manifestly true. CJ has had more touches, and that if that had been true earlier in the year, we’d probably have more wins, especially if it’d been coupled to a punt returner who could at least Fair Catch. Also, having the starting Secondary back has helped a lot. Without C. Finnegan and V. Fuller, this team just is not competitive against the pass.
DannoE
"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
I totally agree
We will see him regress back to the old VY we love (can’t consistently complete passes that are longer than 8-10 yards) either by the end of this season, or even better the Titans will have to keep him and they will fall apart next season. Either way, my money is that the Titans won’t make the playoffs this year or the next year.
The way I see it, this is a no-lose situation for VY.
Situation 1:The Titans win out, and make the playoffs as the 6 seed. Vince Young is hailed as a savior, shortly before a first round demolishing at either New England, Cincy, or San Diego. I mean really, the Titans will get absolutely waxed no matter where they go. If it’s in New England in the snow, the Pats might drop 70 on them.
Situation 2: The Titans win out, and don’t make the playoffs. Kerry Collins gets blamed, because all VY did was win, and if he didn’t spend half the season sucking, maybe they would have made it.
Situation 3: The Titans lose a few, and don’t make the playoffs. Kerry Collins gets blamed, because no one wins em all but if he didn’t spend half the season sucking, maybe they would have made it.
Basically, win or lose, VY can’t lose. Either he’s a savior and “just wins”, or the other guy broke it and he just had to pick up the pieces.
Regardless, these ultra-mobile quarterbacks generally don’t fare well for the simple reason that at some point you’re going to have to stand tall in the pocket, read a defense, and make a pinpoint throw to a receiver. When I see VY do that, then I’ll believe. Until then, call me skeptical.
Manning makes it Wayne on 'dem hoes! Wayne on 'dem hoes! Wayne on 'dem hoes!
http://monkeybiziu.deviantart.com
"at some point you’re going to have to stand tall in the pocket, read a defense, and make a pinpoint throw to a receiver."
So I’m guessing you didn’t watch the Arizona game…
The pocket QB is going the way of the dinosaur.
Just look at the new crop of QB’s…
huh?
you mean the current stars of college FB? Because they still have a lot to prove moving from the spread to a pro offense. Guys like Ryan, Flacco, Stafford and Sanchez would fall into the pocket QB, though some have a bit of athleticism.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Dec 2, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
yeah cause Tim Tebow will be a rock star in the NFL
/sarcasm
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
Or at least I hope so
Think how much better Peyton Manning would be if he could run well with the ball. There have been a good number of plays throughout his career where I felt he could’ve gashed the defense for a good 10 yards if he would just run with it. Having the threat of the run on a defense mind would be great.
Unfortunately for the NFL, you don’t really have QBs that are good both throwing and running.
steve young?
Nobody punished like Earl and No one was nastier than Ryan
one thing you're missing...
is that the Cardinals DID contain VY in the 99yard drive on Sunday. They did the same thing the Colts and a lot of other teams do, which is give up short chunks in favor of covering deep yards. And we saw how that ended. I’ll agree that the sample size is small, and I don’t think his numbers will stand up like this for a career. But VY was asked to dirve the ball the length of his field, and he used his arm to do it in that game. His throwing is DRASTICALLY improved over his rookie year and after. Yes, the team is getting the ball to CJ more. Yes, the D is playing, but neither of those factors came in during the drive on Sunday.
The other thing missing is the improved recieving corps for the Titans now. They aren’t holding any records, but what VY has now is much better than he did his rookie season as well.
TN Sports fan in Hoosier Country....
I really can't say anything bad about VY
I like a compelling story as much as the next guy, and few things are more compelling than watching a true redemption story. I’ll tip my hat to the dude for as long as he can keep it up.
I had assumed that Vince was done in Tennessee. I knew that Kerry Collins’ arm was going to fall off at some point but I thought that it would come too late for Vince to escape being traded or cut. Even when they went 0-6, I thought that the Titans would give him the start and try to pump him up just enough to tempt some other team into trading for him. But just like Drew Brees in San Diego, he grabbed his opportunity with both hands and it might just resurrect his career. Good on ya, Vince.
Not saying I want him to beat the Colts or anything but I’m looking forward to the show he puts on this Sunday. Should be a great day of football.
"The best defensive player is the sideline." - Trevor Pryce, on how to stop Peyton Manning
All games VY played against the Colts were pretty close
Win or lose, it’s going to be down to the wire again.
I'm sold on VY
Here’s the thing… all of he truly successful black QB’s in the NFL have been runners first.
Moon, Cunningham, McNair, McNabb, and yes, Vick….
However, the biggest difference for everyone not named Vick, and until now VY, was that those guys developed into true passers and not just a running QB.
Until Vick hit the league, Cunningham had the most running yardage as a QB and was a true dual threat to run and throw. McNair as we all know, was one of the toughest SOB’s to ever throw the ball and I found it so hard to hate that guy even as he beat us.
However, Young had obviously been thrown to the wolves way too early. He was not put in the right type of offense, they did not have the real power running game like they do now, and most of all, he simply wasnt ready.
What you are seeing right now is both a combination of a slightly easy schedule but also a bit of maturation on the part of VY. He may never be a top 5 QB, but he’s alot more like Rothelisberger than he will ever be like Manning or Brady.
I’d like him to succeed, as I watched the kid play in college and I know he has the ability….he’s a far better QB than people realize. Think about McNabb’s career…..it wasnt until about year 3 or 4 that he really finally became a passer first….and I think thats what Vince was missing. I wish him well….of course, after our Colts kill him :)
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