Winning Stats Power Rankings - Week 14

This week in the Power Rankings, I've added a new way to look at how well teams have played this year:  Consistency.  It gives a pretty good look at how a team have played this year, and what you can expect the last 4 weeks on the year.  I'll talk about what I found above the fold, but the full rankings will be at the bottom of the post:

  • The Colts, unsurprisingly, are the most consistent team in the league, followed by the Eagles and Cowboys.  Anyone who is surprised by this clearly hasn't watched the Colts play this year.  Saints20th.
  • This week's opponent, the Broncos, are the least consistent team in the NFL.  In their 8 wins, they've had 7 in the top 101 games of the season, and the 8th was in the top 150.  In their 4 losses?  306, 359, 351, and 353 (out of 384).  Yikes.  When they are on they are pretty good; when they are off, they really are bad.
  • If you look at non-defense adjusted numbers, the most consistent team is the Redskins.  I said this measures consistency, not "goodness".

After the jump you'll see the full Power Rankings, Schedule Strength (Past and Future), and the Consistency Rankings...

Power Rankings (click on headers to sort):

Team Power Rankings
Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
Saints 3 5 1 4 5 1
Patriots 2 12 4 2 11 2
Colts 1 20 5 1 15 3
Vikings 5 6 3 5 9 4
Packers 8 1 2 9 2 5
Bengals 12 3 6 13 8 6
Ravens 15 10 11 15 7 7
Steelers 6 11 7 7 18 8
Giants 11 17 13 12 12 9
Eagles 16 4 8 17 4 10
Cowboys 7 13 9 8 22 11
Cardinals 17 9 12 16 10 12
Dolphins 14 22 17 10 21 13
Broncos 18 7 14 20 6 14
Jets 22 2 16 24 1 15
Texans 13 18 15 14 16 16
Chargers 4 24 10 3 31 17
Redskins 19 16 18 18 17 18
Falcons 9 29 20 6 29 19
Jaguars 10 25 19 11 28 20
Titans 20 28 24 19 24 21
49ers 27 8 22 27 3 22
Seahawks 21 14 21 26 13 23
Panthers 24 19 23 23 19 24
Bears 23 21 25 21 23 25
Bills 29 15 26 29 14 26
Lions 26 31 29 25 27 27
Buccaneers 28 27 30 28 25 28
Chiefs 30 23 27 30 20 29
Rams 25 30 28 22 32 30
Raiders 32 26 31 32 26 31
Browns 31 32 32 31 30 32

Some thoughts:

  • The Colts are ranked #3 this week in the Power Rankings, which includes the #1 offense and the #15 defense.  The defense needs to play well the rest of the season to leap frog the two teams ahead of them.
  • Even with the Patriots losing twice in a row, statistically they didn't look that bad, maintaining the #2 spot in the rankings.  Not playing well this week will not be so kind to them.
  • Even though the Chargers have won 7 games in a row, they haven't been all that impressive doing it, especially defensively, ranking 31st in the league.  That's what happens when you let Brady Quinn throw 3 TD passes against you.  I know they have been the nemesis of the Colts the past 2 years, but they are the worst team they will win a division.

Schedule Strength:

Team Schedule Strength
Past Future
Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
Titans 12 1 1 31 13 25
Buccaneers 6 2 2 8 11 8
Browns 2 4 3 32 28 32
Patriots 1 13 4 15 23 24
Dolphins 3 8 5 22 7 13
Lions 9 5 6 7 25 20
Ravens 17 3 7 30 30 31
Falcons 4 16 8 1 31 18
Rams 10 14 9 11 22 23
Colts 14 11 10 3 29 21
Raiders 15 12 11 19 27 28
Jets 22 10 12 25 4 10
Bills 7 18 13 29 2 9
49ers 28 7 14 28 21 26
Panthers 16 17 15 4 1 1
Texans 13 19 16 21 12 17
Broncos 30 6 17 24 24 27
Giants 27 15 18 2 9 3
Chiefs 31 9 19 16 32 30
Bears 19 21 20 10 6 4
Cardinals 24 22 21 20 26 29
Saints 20 24 22 23 14 22
Seahawks 29 20 23 14 20 16
Redskins 21 25 24 26 8 14
Jaguars 5 30 25 27 5 11
Cowboys 8 31 26 12 3 2
Bengals 23 27 27 13 15 12
Vikings 18 29 28 5 17 7
Steelers 25 28 29 18 19 19
Packers 26 26 30 17 18 15
Eagles 32 23 31 6 16 5
Chargers 11 32 32 9 10 6

A couple thoughts here:

  • The Colts have played the 10th toughest schedule so far, making their 12-0 record that much more impressive.  The Patriots are the only team with a tougher schedule that even has a winning record, and they are 7-5.
  • Let's look at the Colts Week 14 opponent, the Broncos.  Their offense has faced a very easy schedule (3rd easiest), but their defense has faced a very tough schedule (6th toughest).  Their offense should get tested this week against an underrated Colts defense.
  • The Colts' future schedule looks to be lopsided, but overall manageable:  Facing very good defenses, and not very good offenses.  With Peyton Manning under center, I'll take that.
  • The Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, and Chargers all have tough finishing schedules, so making the playoffs isn't a sure thing for any of these teams, who have relatively easy schedules up to this point.

Consistency Rankings:

Team Consistency
Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
Colts 1 11 2 1 13 1
Eagles 12 15 3 10 3 2
Cowboys 5 2 6 2 8 3
Chiefs 6 25 20 6 18 4
49ers 3 23 16 3 24 5
Panthers 27 7 4 21 1 6
Falcons 7 14 15 8 15 7
Lions 23 1 7 18 6 8
Buccaneers 17 3 14 20 12 9
Bears 10 31 22 7 31 10
Cardinals 24 13 11 19 25 11
Vikings 4 10 9 11 7 12
Texans 11 22 17 15 21 13
Rams 20 9 10 28 2 14
Ravens 29 20 27 23 4 15
Redskins 19 5 1 25 5 16
Browns 30 17 18 26 22 17
Steelers 15 6 8 16 23 18
Packers 13 19 24 14 17 19
Saints 2 16 5 5 26 20
Dolphins 25 12 13 30 19 21
Chargers 9 27 23 9 28 22
Bills 28 18 21 29 9 23
Raiders 16 26 19 17 30 24
Seahawks 22 24 28 12 14 25
Jets 32 28 30 31 27 26
Patriots 8 32 25 4 32 27
Giants 18 30 31 13 29 28
Titans 31 21 29 32 16 29
Jaguars 21 8 26 24 10 30
Bengals 14 4 12 27 11 31
Broncos 26 29 32 22 20 32
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