FanPost

A Jason Whitlock inspired MVP post




So after the early games on Sunday, Jason Whitlock, renowned scholar and football historian, tweeted the following: (paraphrased) "How many interceptions does manning have to throw before people realize he's not the MVP.  And whats with people saying he's stuck with inferior talent?"

 

So, obviously, aside from being moronic and lazy (Peyton Manning has 14 INTs and 0 Fumbles lost, while Drew Brees has 10 INTs and 4 fumbles lost, I wonder who has more turnovers, moron), I thought, lets use some critical thinking and decide, does Peyton, in fact, have inferior talent to Drew Brees (we won't go into anyone else, since I think its just Brees v Manning, and Brett Favre probably has better talent on both sides of the ball than either Peyton or Brees anyhow).

First, the stats for both Peyton and Drew:

 

Peyton Manning -  342 comps / 502 atts, 68.1%  7.78 YPA,  29TDs, 14INTs, 0 FML, 10 Sack

Drew Brees -         302 comps / 432 atts, 69.9%  8.87YPA,  32 TDs, 10INTS, 4 FML, 15 Sack

 

The "talent":  (Each person will have their draft status, their NFL stats, and their advanced stats as determined by football outsiders)

 

Reggie Wayne:   1st round pick.   87 catches, 1,078 yards, 9 TDs

3rd in DYAR, 14th in DVOA, 68% Catch%

Austin Collie:  4th round pick.  50 catches, 540 yards, 6 TDs

24th in DYAR, 25th in DVOA, 67% Catch%

Pierre Garcon  6th round pick.   45 catches, 749 yards, 4 TDs

38th in DYAR, 42nd in DVOA, 51% Catch%

Dallas Clark: 1st round pick.   82 catches, 902 yards, 8 TDs

2nd in DYAR, 6th in DVOA, 77% Catch%

Joseph Addai: 1st round pick.  197 rushes, 729 yards, 9TDs   /    48 catches, 322 yards, 3 TDs

10th in DYAR, 11th in DVOA , 53% success                                  /    7th in DYAR, 25th in DVOA, 80% catch%

Offensive Line:   (For the OLs, i didnt go through spot by spot and determine what round each start was from, if someone wants to, that would be awesome.  I know the Colts have 2 UDFAs and 3 later round picks starting for them at the moment, but no clue on the Saints OL)

#10 in Adjusted Line Yards.   #13 in Power Success.  #23 in 10+ yards.    #21 in Stuffed Rank.  #1 in Adjusted Sack Rate

 

 

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Marques Colston:   7th round pick.  56 catches, 908 yards, 9 TDs.

5th in DYAR, 3rd in DVOA, 64% Catch%

Robert Meachem:  1st round pick.  33 catches, 601 yards, 8 TDs

8th in DYAR, 1st in DVOA, 75% Catch%

Devery Henderson: 2nd round pick.  43 catches, 729 yards, 2 TDs

18th in DYAR, 3rd in DVOA, 66% Catch%

Jeremy Shockey: 1st round pick.  48 catches, 569 yards, 3 TDs

9th in DYAR, 9th in DVOA, 72% Catch%

Dave Thomas:  7th round pick.   22 catches, 254 yards, 1 TD

23rd DYAR, 21st in DVOA, 67% Catch%

Mike Bell:  UDFA.  114 carries, 598 yards, 4 TDs

23rd in DYAR, 21st in DVOA, 58% success  (Didnt qualify for receiving stats)

Pierre Thomas: UDFA.   135 carries, 713 yards, 5 TDs     /        34 catches, 252 yards, 2 TDs

7th in DYAR, 1st in DVOA, 56% success                               /         16th in DYAR, 16th in DVOA,  87% Catch%

Reggie Bush:  (didnt qualify under main stats as a running back, but his DYAR and DAVO were high enough that I ranked him anyhow)

1st round pick.  62 carries, 310 yards, 5 TDs.                       /       39 catches, 281 yards, 3 TDs

25th in DYAR, 3rd in DVOA.                                                       /       19th in DYAR, 31st in DVOA, 68% Catch%

 

Offensive Line:

#1(tie) in Adjusted Line Yards.   #18 in Power Success.  #11 in 10+ yards.    #7 in Stuffed Rank.  #4 in Adjusted Sack Rate

 

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Some notes:  Some things I'd really like to have that I don't, at the moment:   Drops and yards after catch.  These are two things that the Colts excelled at earlier in the year (very few drops, lots of YAC) and are now below average (according to the 'eye test)  in both (lots of drops, not a lot of YAC).   As far as talent level at each individual position, while the colts have a lot of first round talent, so, too, do the Saints.  Both teams have first rounders at TE, RB, and WR.   I know that Marques Colston was a 7th round pick, but if I'm not mistaken, that was a function of off-the-field issues, and not talent (someone can correct me if I'm wrong). 

 

From stats standpoint, other than the fact that Brees balls get more spread (im not sure if that sounds kinky, but we'll go with it anyhow), the only other noticeable difference is all of his receivers and runnings backs are all high in the rankings.  I think the saints clearly have a better run blocking line (i wont go into pass blocking, since that is also a function of the QB, and both lines are very low in ASR anyhow) and a much more successful running game. 

 

Pierre Garcon's 51% Catch% is clearly the weaklink of the entire bunch, and he's probably hurting the Colts offense as much as anything else. 

In the end, I'm not sure if there is a conclusion to be drawn.  If you ask me 'would you trade the Colts offense (minus Manning) for the Saints offense (minus Brees), I wouldn't be able to answer that.  I think the Colts top 2 (Wayne and Clark) are better than the Top 2 for the Saints, but I think top to bottom the Saints have a more equal talent distribution, which allows Brees to have 5 useful targets on any one play.

 

Thoughts/Ideas, something I over looked, or if someone wants to bring the Drops and/or YAC into the discussion, I'd like to see it.  Either way, I think Whitlock is offbase with his Manning hate, although thats not a surprise.

 

One last tidbit, unrelated:  Started watching the Colts/Broncos replay, the one thing I've noticed so far - when the Colts were having their success early in the game, the Broncos were running a ton of man coverage.  When the Colts started having trouble, it seems (And this may be completely incorrect, Ive only seen 2 series of 'bad colts') the Broncos ran a lot more Zone coverage.  Will continue to watch. 

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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