A Jason Whitlock inspired MVP post

by SpazMo on Dec 16, 2009 3:08 AM EST

So after the early games on Sunday, Jason Whitlock, renowned scholar and football historian, tweeted the following: (paraphrased) "How many interceptions does manning have to throw before people realize he's not the MVP. And whats with people saying he's stuck with inferior talent?"

So, obviously, aside from being moronic and lazy (Peyton Manning has 14 INTs and 0 Fumbles lost, while Drew Brees has 10 INTs and 4 fumbles lost, I wonder who has more turnovers, moron), I thought, lets use some critical thinking and decide, does Peyton, in fact, have inferior talent to Drew Brees (we won't go into anyone else, since I think its just Brees v Manning, and Brett Favre probably has better talent on both sides of the ball than either Peyton or Brees anyhow).

First, the stats for both Peyton and Drew:

Peyton Manning - 342 comps / 502 atts, 68.1% 7.78 YPA, 29TDs, 14INTs, 0 FML, 10 Sack

Drew Brees - 302 comps / 432 atts, 69.9% 8.87YPA, 32 TDs, 10INTS, 4 FML, 15 Sack

The "talent": (Each person will have their draft status, their NFL stats, and their advanced stats as determined by football outsiders)

Reggie Wayne: 1st round pick. 87 catches, 1,078 yards, 9 TDs

3rd in DYAR, 14th in DVOA, 68% Catch%

Austin Collie: 4th round pick. 50 catches, 540 yards, 6 TDs

24th in DYAR, 25th in DVOA, 67% Catch%

Pierre Garcon: 6th round pick. 45 catches, 749 yards, 4 TDs

38th in DYAR, 42nd in DVOA, 51% Catch%

Dallas Clark: 1st round pick. 82 catches, 902 yards, 8 TDs

2nd in DYAR, 6th in DVOA, 77% Catch%

Joseph Addai: 1st round pick. 197 rushes, 729 yards, 9TDs / 48 catches, 322 yards, 3 TDs

10th in DYAR, 11th in DVOA , 53% success / 7th in DYAR, 25th in DVOA, 80% catch%

Offensive Line: (For the OLs, i didnt go through spot by spot and determine what round each start was from, if someone wants to, that would be awesome. I know the Colts have 2 UDFAs and 3 later round picks starting for them at the moment, but no clue on the Saints OL)

#10 in Adjusted Line Yards. #13 in Power Success. #23 in 10+ yards. #21 in Stuffed Rank. #1 in Adjusted Sack Rate

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Marques Colston: 7th round pick. 56 catches, 908 yards, 9 TDs.

5th in DYAR, 3rd in DVOA, 64% Catch%

Robert Meachem: 1st round pick. 33 catches, 601 yards, 8 TDs

8th in DYAR, 1st in DVOA, 75% Catch%

Devery Henderson: 2nd round pick. 43 catches, 729 yards, 2 TDs

18th in DYAR, 3rd in DVOA, 66% Catch%

Jeremy Shockey: 1st round pick. 48 catches, 569 yards, 3 TDs

9th in DYAR, 9th in DVOA, 72% Catch%

Dave Thomas: 7th round pick. 22 catches, 254 yards, 1 TD

23rd DYAR, 21st in DVOA, 67% Catch%

Mike Bell: UDFA. 114 carries, 598 yards, 4 TDs

23rd in DYAR, 21st in DVOA, 58% success (Didnt qualify for receiving stats)

Pierre Thomas: UDFA. 135 carries, 713 yards, 5 TDs / 34 catches, 252 yards, 2 TDs

7th in DYAR, 1st in DVOA, 56% success / 16th in DYAR, 16th in DVOA, 87% Catch%

Reggie Bush: (didnt qualify under main stats as a running back, but his DYAR and DAVO were high enough that I ranked him anyhow)

1st round pick. 62 carries, 310 yards, 5 TDs. / 39 catches, 281 yards, 3 TDs

25th in DYAR, 3rd in DVOA. / 19th in DYAR, 31st in DVOA, 68% Catch%

Offensive Line:

#1(tie) in Adjusted Line Yards. #18 in Power Success. #11 in 10+ yards. #7 in Stuffed Rank. #4 in Adjusted Sack Rate

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Some notes: Some things I'd really like to have that I don't, at the moment: Drops and yards after catch. These are two things that the Colts excelled at earlier in the year (very few drops, lots of YAC) and are now below average (according to the 'eye test) in both (lots of drops, not a lot of YAC). As far as talent level at each individual position, while the colts have a lot of first round talent, so, too, do the Saints. Both teams have first rounders at TE, RB, and WR. I know that Marques Colston was a 7th round pick, but if I'm not mistaken, that was a function of off-the-field issues, and not talent (someone can correct me if I'm wrong).

From stats standpoint, other than the fact that Brees balls get more spread (im not sure if that sounds kinky, but we'll go with it anyhow), the only other noticeable difference is all of his receivers and runnings backs are all high in the rankings. I think the saints clearly have a better run blocking line (i wont go into pass blocking, since that is also a function of the QB, and both lines are very low in ASR anyhow) and a much more successful running game.

Pierre Garcon's 51% Catch% is clearly the weaklink of the entire bunch, and he's probably hurting the Colts offense as much as anything else.

In the end, I'm not sure if there is a conclusion to be drawn. If you ask me 'would you trade the Colts offense (minus Manning) for the Saints offense (minus Brees), I wouldn't be able to answer that. I think the Colts top 2 (Wayne and Clark) are better than the Top 2 for the Saints, but I think top to bottom the Saints have a more equal talent distribution, which allows Brees to have 5 useful targets on any one play.

Thoughts/Ideas, something I over looked, or if someone wants to bring the Drops and/or YAC into the discussion, I'd like to see it. Either way, I think Whitlock is offbase with his Manning hate, although thats not a surprise.

One last tidbit, unrelated: Started watching the Colts/Broncos replay, the one thing I've noticed so far - when the Colts were having their success early in the game, the Broncos were running a ton of man coverage. When the Colts started having trouble, it seems (And this may be completely incorrect, Ive only seen 2 series of 'bad colts') the Broncos ran a lot more Zone coverage. Will continue to watch.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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Comments

3 things to remember

The first thing to remember is that Jason Whitlock hated Peyton Manning.
The second thing to remember is Jason Whitlock loves Jeff George and wonders why nobody is willing to take a chance on him.
The third thing to remember is that Jason Whitlock hates Peyton Manning, in case you forgot the first thing to remember.

I would be shocked if the Colts won the Super Bowl and was undefeated if he would have anything good to say about Peyton Manning.

by Blueisgood on Dec 16, 2009 7:16 AM EST reply actions

I know whitlock hates the colts

But I wanted to keep this purely factual. Well, as factual as something like ‘who has the better skilled position players’ can be. This wasn’t a pro-manning post. Or an anti-brees post. I think it shows some interesting things, I think the Saints OL is definitely better than the Colts OL, atleast in run blocking (But that might explain why the Saints are getting more man coverage as opposed to zone like the Colts see a bunch of). And Pierre Garcon’s inconsistency is probably making it easier for defenses to key in on 2 specific people, making Manning’s job harder.

Don’t care who wins the MVP. I do hate people being paid to do a job, but having absolutely no accountability in said job.

Never doubt Peyton Manning, he’ll make you look silly
Joseph Addai is a good running back.
Im a douchebag, an asshole, and I'm rarely right.

by SpazMo on Dec 16, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

Man/zone

From what I know that would make sense. Peyton eats man coverage for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.

Fact is, Brees is doing now what Peyton did in 2003/2004: Benefiting from defenses giving him idiotic coverages. Peyton hit deep ball after deep ball until defenses learned to keep two safeties over the top and actually play the deep ball. They learned their lesson with Peyton but they haven’t quite put 2 and 2 together with Brees. I expect to see that next year.

Of course, Peyton won MVP in 2003 and 2004, so who knows.

by slash196 on Dec 16, 2009 7:17 AM EST reply actions

FYI Colston is functionally very similar to Garcon. He wasn’t drafted until the second round because he played at a D2 school Hofstra where he set all kinds of ridiculous record. I don’t believe character played anything into his draft status.

Excellent post though. Rec’d. Not just because you successfully showed the idiocy of Whitlock, who will probably pick the Ravens to win the superbowl if they end up stumbling into the playoffs, but also because you showed how the colts and saints are both winning by using half UDFA and low round draft picks and half 1st round picks that play. Of course, the Saints have had much higher first round draft picks over the past decade than the colts.

by sandsnake on Dec 16, 2009 7:55 AM EST reply actions

All you did in my opinion was make a case for Brees moreso than Manning. Basically what you’re saying is, Brees is playing just as good as Manning with lesser talent. So why doesn’t he deserve the MVP this year?

I know I’ve said this before, I really don’t give a shit who wins the MVP. It’s almost a meaningless award. If the NFL themselves were the voters, it’d be a different story.

Give Brees the MVP, I don’t care. As I mentioned earlier, he’s played just as good as Manning, and if you consider what he has done with a franchise that has been a perennial loser and turned them into a possible undefeated Super Bowl contender, then that makes for a great story which is how the writers are going to vote. Writers like good stories.

"Yea, verily, we shall overcome thy pathetic attempts at defense, thou jelly-livered knave! Talk not of thy smack to me, for I shall wedge mine booted foot nine furlongs up thy ass, bitch! Canst thou dig it??"

by KingRichard on Dec 16, 2009 8:02 AM EST reply actions

uhm

I wasnt making the case for either person. Whitlock made a statement, I researched. It didnt matter which side of the coin it came up. How-evah, I don’t think I posted anything that showed Brees had ‘lesser’ talent. If anything, I showed that Brees had equal talent?

Never doubt Peyton Manning, he’ll make you look silly
Joseph Addai is a good running back.
Im a douchebag, an asshole, and I'm rarely right.

by SpazMo on Dec 16, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions

Favre's too good a story

To be out of the running, regardless of how much help he has (and, for the record, he might have a better running game and offensive line but his receivers aren’t that flash.)

by eltharion_doa on Dec 16, 2009 8:15 AM EST reply actions

NBA

the mvp is going to end up like the NBA’s MVP race in 96-97 where Michael Jordan had better stats and won a championship but they gave it to Karl Malone just because it was somebody other than Michael Jordan….

by TENACIOUSDB7 on Dec 16, 2009 8:54 AM EST reply actions

Well

Brees has the better stats, so its not a perfect comparison

EVH+DLR=BFFr........ God I Hope So!!

by dmstorm22 on Dec 16, 2009 10:54 AM EST up reply actions

I always thought it doesn't matter how many interceptions

a QB throws as long as you win the game.

"You can't defend the perfect throw, what can I say?" Peyton quoting Marino
"As I grow older, the list of people who can kiss my ass grows longer"-Ancient Hoosier Proverb.

by Indy Lori on Dec 16, 2009 9:37 AM EST reply actions

my beef has always been

sportswriters want to bang on the interception drum. OK, but they are always looking at box scores which conveniently leave out fumbles lost. I think fumbles lost are a WHOLE lot worse than interceptions, especially when you’re talking about an offense like the Colts or Saints, which is generally more vertical. You’re talking about a puntish-type turnover vs. pretty good field position (depending on where the turnover accord).

And also, the fact that Whitlock made it sound like Manning was Jay Cutler when he has 14, which is high, but not out of this world. He’s going to have more interceptions, he’s breaking in 2 new receivers, which also means forcing more balls to Wayne, which will lead to interceptions. I would wager a months salary that atleast half of his interceptions are on balls to Wayne’s side of the field.

Never doubt Peyton Manning, he’ll make you look silly
Joseph Addai is a good running back.
Im a douchebag, an asshole, and I'm rarely right.

by SpazMo on Dec 16, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions

ints

and I can think of at least 3 that were tipped by a defensive lineman.

by cardsfanincolo on Dec 17, 2009 1:15 AM EST up reply actions

Co-MVPs?

Keep in mind this could be an option as well. Manning shared the award with McNair a few years back.

Wow, I didn’t realize Garcon had a 51% catch%. This MUST improve for him to stay in the rotation. Sure does explain these 2nd and 3rd quarter offensive sputters.

by davis3217 on Dec 16, 2009 11:22 AM EST reply actions 1 recs