Week 15: Inside the Numbers
Seems like such a long time ago since the Colts went to 14-0, huh? Remember that day, when there were still 2 undefeated teams? Here's some streak and record notes (all but the first one was found by Elias, via ESPN):
- The Colts have now won 11 consecutive regular-season road games, which is tied for 2nd best all-time. The record? 18, set by the 88-90 49ers. I'll bring this back up again if the Colts get to 15.
- The Colts set the NFL record for most 4th quarter comebacks in a season, with their 7th come from behind win of the season.
- There were nine lead changes in the Colts-Jaguars game, tying an NFL record. The last two such games happened seven days apart in the 2002 season: the Chiefs' 40-39 win at Cleveland on September 8 and Buffalo's 45-39 overtime victory at Minnesota on September 15.
- I mentioned last week that Peyton Manning had tied Brett Favre and Dan Marino for most 4-TD Pass games in their career (Reg. Season and Playoff). Well, Manning is now the career leader with 23 such games. Didn't take him long to break that tie, huh?
- Dallas Clark had a pair of touchdown receptions against the Jaguars on Thursday, after catching three TDs versus Denver on Sunday. Clark is the first NFL tight end to make five touchdown catches over a two-game span since Antonio Gates did that for the Chargers in 2004.
I've also found the Football Outsiders Audibles at the Line to be a great read each week. This gem came from them during the game on Thursday night:
Ned Macey: I'm rocking my 3-month old daughter to sleep and wondering how many yards she could gain if she were covered by Tim Jennings. I'd put the over/under at 65.5.
Aaron Schatz: Cheer up, Ned. If she was covered by Tim Jennings with the Jacksonville pass rush going after the quarterback, I would put the over/under at 265.5.
We aren't the only ones that think Tim Jennings gives too much cushion.
Stats from a victorious Week 15 after the jump...
Here are the stats from Week 15:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Off/Def Above | Off/Def Below | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 84.6% | 2 | 82.9% | 30 | N | N | 7-1 |
| ANPY/A | 11.433 | 1 | 5.262 | 16 | Y | N | 10-2 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 8 | 1 | 18 | N | N | 6-3 |
| Yds/Drive | 46.13 | 1 | 34.50 | 22 | N | N | 4-1 |
| ToP/Drive | 3:04.3 | 7 | 3:32.6 | 30 | N | N | 7-2 |
| Yds/Play | 6.962 | 3 | 4.539 | 7 | Y | N | 5-0 |
| First Downs/Drive | 2.25 | 6 | 2.50 | 31 | N | N | 5-2 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 66.7% | 2 | 64.7% | 30 | N | N | 7-0 |
| Avg Start Pos | 20.4 | 31 | 34.7 | 26 | N | Y | 3-6 |
| 3 and Outs | 2 | 6 | 1 | 28 | N | N | 3-1 |
| RZ Eff | 100.0% | 1 | 100.0% | 28 | N | N | 7-2 |
| Plays/Drive | 6.625 | 4 | 7.600 | 32 | N | N | 4-3 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.755 | 17 | 0.289 | 29 | N | N | 4-1 |
| RB Success | 30.4% | 30 | 64.7% | 30 | N | Y | 2-4 |
| Yds/Carry | 2.65 | 31 | 4.09 | 19 | N | N | 2-7 |
| Net Punts Yds/Game | 37.33 | 18 | 42.00 | 23 | N | Y | 2-5 |
| Ranking - Week (32) | 3 | 29 | 16 | ||||
| Ranking - Season (448) | 25 | 416 | 217 | ||||
Some thoughts:
- The Colts Offense continued to dominate the Top 8 categories, finishing in the top quarter of the league in all of them. It's nice to see that ANY/A stat up over 10. And that's even with the INT that wasn't Manning's fault.
- If it felt like the Jaguars were dinking and dunking the ball down the field, they certainly were. Take a look at Yards / Play, and you'll see their lack of big plays. They've never tried to go down the field on the Colts, and when they finally did (when they had to), David Garrard couldn't throw the ball low enough for his receivers, sailing throws multiple times.
- The defense, as a whole, didn't look too good. Once you are informed that Freeney and Mathis didn't really play more than a handful of snaps before the 4th quarter, it makes this a little more tolerable. A complete defense shut down this offense 3 straight times, as it should do.
- After so many weeks of decent-to-good RB play, the Colts throw in a dud. This coming week will be a good test, as the Jets are very good defensively.
- Last week, 2 teams won despite being Below Average in ANPY/A on both offense and defense, and it happened again this week. The first 13 weeks it only happened 5 times, but in the last 2 it's happened 4 times. Interesting.
Season Totals after Week 15:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Best | Defense | Rank | Best | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 79.2% | 1 | Colts | 71.0% | 22 | Jets | 93-9 | 0.912 |
| ANPY/A | 7.575 | 3 | Saints | 4.828 | 9 | Bills | 112-9 | 0.926 |
| Turnovers | 1.36 | 5 | Chargers | 1.86 | 8 | Saints | 98-27 | 0.784 |
| Yds/Drive | 38.06 | 2 | Saints | 31.33 | 24 | Jets | 90-12 | 0.882 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:47.4 | 13 | Bengals | 2:57.5 | 30 | Packers | 96-27 | 0.780 |
| Yds/Play | 6.161 | 3 | Saints | 4.970 | 6 | Jets | 90-17 | 0.841 |
| First Downs/Drive | 2.20 | 1 | Colts | 1.88 | 29 | Jets | 83-21 | 0.798 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 52.8% | 1 | Colts | 44.7% | 29 | Jets | 89-17 | 0.840 |
| Avg Start Pos | 27.9 | 29 | Vikings | 28.3 | 11 | Cowboys | 99-34 | 0.744 |
| 3 and Outs | 2.71 | 2 | Cowboys | 3.29 | 27 | Jets | 66-23 | 0.742 |
| RZ Eff | 75.4% | 2 | Cardinals | 61.6% | 11 | Saints | 71-36 | 0.664 |
| Plays/Drive | 6.177 | 2 | Falcons | 6.305 | 32 | Packers | 73-39 | 0.652 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.592 | 3 | Jaguars | 0.837 | 12 | 49ers | 77-42 | 0.647 |
| RB Success | 48.9% | 8 | Patriots | 49.0% | 25 | Vikings | 71-42 | 0.628 |
| Yds/Carry | 3.69 | 30 | Titans | 4.13 | 14 | Ravens | 49-53 | 0.480 |
| Net Punts Yds/Game | 39.12 | 20 | Raiders | 42.42 | 29 | Patriots | 40-50 | 0.444 |
| Overall | 1 | Colts | 23 | Jets | ||||
A couple thoughts:
- The Colts Offense is ranked in the Top 5 of the 7 best categories in 2009, and Top 3 in the 6 best categories (sort on the far right column). The Colts last 2 opponents are ranked #1 in those 6 top categories defensively (Jets X 5, Bills in ANPY/A).
- I'm still loving the Red Zone Efficiency stats, with the offense scoring 75% of the points possible. The defense is also very good at this stat, which is a great sign.
- Check out the Win-Loss record for Yards / Carry. Ron Jaworski was mocking Merrill Hoge on Monday morning about how it is a passing game now, and not a running game.
A new feature this week: Week by Week Rankings. Take a look (click on the headers to sort):
| Colts | Opponent | Non-Adjusted | Adjusted | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week | Offense | Defense | Total | Offense | Defense | Total | |
| 1 | Jaguars | 85 | 190 | 95 | 145 | 143 | 105 |
| 2 | Dolphins | 90 | 403 | 272 | 74 | 405 | 239 |
| 3 | Cardinals | 133 | 85 | 63 | 97 | 90 | 49 |
| 4 | Seahawks | 11 | 259 | 79 | 17 | 370 | 139 |
| 5 | Titans | 48 | 39 | 20 | 60 | 28 | 17 |
| 7 | Rams | 10 | 69 | 16 | 54 | 112 | 41 |
| 8 | 49ers | 211 | 99 | 108 | 136 | 194 | 132 |
| 9 | Texans | 132 | 246 | 156 | 126 | 201 | 126 |
| 10 | Patriots | 205 | 276 | 265 | 179 | 132 | 119 |
| 11 | Ravens | 114 | 281 | 172 | 51 | 259 | 99 |
| 12 | Texans | 70 | 331 | 175 | 75 | 319 | 160 |
| 13 | Titans | 18 | 327 | 132 | 27 | 357 | 149 |
| 14 | Broncos | 251 | 183 | 214 | 187 | 206 | 179 |
| 15 | Jaguars | 25 | 416 | 217 | 67 | 406 | 236 |
The Jaguars game was one of the worst of the year for the Colts, especially on the defensive side. You can also see why the Colts are the most consistent team in the league.
5 recs |
23 comments
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Comments
As always
Rec’d. Nothing too much to add here. You know what would be interesting though? To look at these stats for all teams – but for only the fourth quarter. Maybe in some other splits as well – like with a lead, with a big lead, when down by a score, when down by multiple scores, etc. I just want to see some proof to what I see with my eyes – that, when the game is one the line and it needs to, this team plays on a different level(and that’s both units).
I also wish I had time and motivation to blog at Speed Blue Nation
I have a 4th Quarter RB Success Rate Stat
It is a reverse indicator of success, meaning the worse you are at 4th Quarter Success Rate, the more likely you are to win. That’s why I’m not including it.
The other stuff I can probably do, but I’ll need the summer, as it will take sorting through the Play by Play data for everything, rather than just the few things that don’t show up in the Box Score.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Tim Jennings..
weak in coverage? SURELY YOU JEST!
Never doubt Peyton Manning, he’ll make you look silly
Joseph Addai is a good running back.
Im a douchebag, an asshole, and I'm rarely right.
I just wanted to tell you
good luck; we’re all counting on you.
"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: Mosquitoes are attracted to the color blue twice as much as to any other color.
have you ever
seen a grown man naked?
Never doubt Peyton Manning, he’ll make you look silly
Joseph Addai is a good running back.
Im a douchebag, an asshole, and I'm rarely right.
How soon can you land?
I can’t tell…
You can tell me, I’m a doctor.
No, I mean I’m not sure!
Well cant you guess?
Not for another two hours.
You can’t guess for another two hours??
Never doubt Peyton Manning, he’ll make you look silly
Joseph Addai is a good running back.
Im a douchebag, an asshole, and I'm rarely right.
Couple of non Tim Jennings thoughts
1) Re: Running game: Last week seemed to be the return of the ‘omg, we’re playing the jaguars, they have good DTs and athletic linebackers, we must run the stretch play 15 times a quarter! But wait, we’re gaining .032 yards per carry on the stretch! Who is calling run plays?? Tim? What are you doing calling run plays, we told you to stop that! Damnit, put the nickel defense out there so Tim stops calling run plays!"
2) Re: Jags dinking and dunking: I HATE THE PAPER CUT OFFENSE. Its the worst thing in sports. I don’t care if the Colts defense gives up 72ppg, just do it quickly, so I can watch the offense go 3 and out. I cant stand the run for 3 run for 3 pass in the flat for 4, rinse repeat, slit wrists crap.
Never doubt Peyton Manning, he’ll make you look silly
Joseph Addai is a good running back.
Im a douchebag, an asshole, and I'm rarely right.
I completely agree on the Paper Cut Offense
Jacksonville continues to do it every time against the Colts, even though it only wins them games 25% of the time (since the AFC South came into existence).
I guess it’s better than only winning once in that same time frame…
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
6th Toughest
The Jets are, by far, the best defense in the league. They are top 10 in every category, except for Penalty Yards / Play.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
and without jenkins
who was IRd forever ago. I honestly wonder how often they let sanchez throw a pass this weekend. What with all the yards the colts gave up to MJD last week.
by naptown_ninja on Dec 23, 2009 9:53 AM EST up reply actions
isnt there any other cornerbacks in free agency i mean come on theres gotta be someone better than jennings out there
"You only get intercepted when you don't know what your doing, I knew what I was Doing."
-Johnny Unitas-
"You're only as healthy as you feel."
-Travis Bickle-
by 805 on Dec 23, 2009 10:45 AM EST reply actions
I don't know
how you expect quality players to fall our of the sky. There’s always a reason why a player is on the street, and you almost always find out why pretty quickly.
"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: Mosquitoes are attracted to the color blue twice as much as to any other color.
Mgrex-
I remember that last year’s 9 game win streak also include some fourth quarter comebacks-
any numbers on those in your files?
Also, many are rightfully pointing out that the current 23 game win streak was interrupted by a playoff loss, but are they aware the loss was in an Overtime game in which the Colts never got an offensive possession?
More on the streak>>> During the streak the Colts have beaten every AFC team save 4 teams, the upcoming NYJets and Buffalo Bills, and Oakland and KC, who are scheduled next year.
>>>If they win out, they will have swept three AFC divisions (and half the AFC West) and the NFC West, plus Detroit, and will have beaten their Division rivals 3 times each and New England twice, without a regular season lost.
That’s against the toughest division in the toughest conference. Quite an accomplishment.
by HoosierHorseman on Dec 23, 2009 11:20 AM EST reply actions
There were 3 4th Quarter comebacks in the last 9 of 2008
Pittsburgh (Manning led), Cleveland (Mathis and Freeney led), and Jacksonville (Manning/Ratliff led).
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.



























