Week 15: Inside the Numbers

Seems like such a long time ago since the Colts went to 14-0, huh?  Remember that day, when there were still 2 undefeated teams?  Here's some streak and record notes (all but the first one was found by Elias, via ESPN):

  • The Colts have now won 11 consecutive regular-season road games, which is tied for 2nd best all-time.  The record?  18, set by the 88-90 49ers.  I'll bring this back up again if the Colts get to 15.
  • The Colts set the NFL record for most 4th quarter comebacks in a season, with their 7th come from behind win of the season.
  • There were nine lead changes in the Colts-Jaguars game, tying an NFL record. The last two such games happened seven days apart in the 2002 season: the Chiefs' 40-39 win at Cleveland on September 8 and Buffalo's 45-39 overtime victory at Minnesota on September 15.
  • I mentioned last week that Peyton Manning had tied Brett Favre and Dan Marino for most 4-TD Pass games in their career (Reg. Season and Playoff).  Well, Manning is now the career leader with 23 such games.  Didn't take him long to break that tie, huh?
  • Dallas Clark had a pair of touchdown receptions against the Jaguars on Thursday, after catching three TDs versus Denver on Sunday. Clark is the first NFL tight end to make five touchdown catches over a two-game span since Antonio Gates did that for the Chargers in 2004.

I've also found the Football Outsiders Audibles at the Line to be a great read each week.  This gem came from them during the game on Thursday night:

Ned Macey: I'm rocking my 3-month old daughter to sleep and wondering how many yards she could gain if she were covered by Tim Jennings.  I'd put the over/under at 65.5. 

Aaron Schatz: Cheer up, Ned. If she was covered by Tim Jennings with the Jacksonville pass rush going after the quarterback, I would put the over/under at 265.5.

We aren't the only ones that think Tim Jennings gives too much cushion.

Stats from a victorious Week 15 after the jump...

Here are the stats from Week 15:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 84.6% 2 82.9% 30 N N 7-1
ANPY/A 11.433 1 5.262 16 Y N 10-2
Turnovers 1 8 1 18 N N 6-3
Yds/Drive 46.13 1 34.50 22 N N 4-1
ToP/Drive 3:04.3 7 3:32.6 30 N N 7-2
Yds/Play 6.962 3 4.539 7 Y N 5-0
First Downs/Drive 2.25 6 2.50 31 N N 5-2
3rd/4th Down 66.7% 2 64.7% 30 N N 7-0
Avg Start Pos 20.4 31 34.7 26 N Y 3-6
3 and Outs 2 6 1 28 N N 3-1
RZ Eff 100.0% 1 100.0% 28 N N 7-2
Plays/Drive 6.625 4 7.600 32 N N 4-3
Penalty Yds / Play 0.755 17 0.289 29 N N 4-1
RB Success 30.4% 30 64.7% 30 N Y 2-4
Yds/Carry 2.65 31 4.09 19 N N 2-7
Net Punts Yds/Game 37.33 18 42.00 23 N Y 2-5
Ranking - Week (32) 3 29 16
Ranking - Season (448) 25 416 217

Some thoughts:

  • The Colts Offense continued to dominate the Top 8 categories, finishing in the top quarter of the league in all of them.  It's nice to see that ANY/A stat up over 10.  And that's even with the INT that wasn't Manning's fault.
  • If it felt like the Jaguars were dinking and dunking the ball down the field, they certainly were.  Take a look at Yards / Play, and you'll see their lack of big plays.  They've never tried to go down the field on the Colts, and when they finally did (when they had to), David Garrard couldn't throw the ball low enough for his receivers, sailing throws multiple times.
  • The defense, as a whole, didn't look too good.  Once you are informed that Freeney and Mathis didn't really play more than a handful of snaps before the 4th quarter, it makes this a little more tolerable.  A complete defense shut down this offense 3 straight times, as it should do.
  • After so many weeks of decent-to-good RB play, the Colts throw in a dud.  This coming week will be a good test, as the Jets are very good defensively.
  • Last week, 2 teams won despite being Below Average in ANPY/A on both offense and defense, and it happened again this week.  The first 13 weeks it only happened 5 times, but in the last 2 it's happened 4 times.  Interesting.

Season Totals after Week 15:

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 79.2% 1 Colts 71.0% 22 Jets 93-9 0.912
ANPY/A 7.575 3 Saints 4.828 9 Bills 112-9 0.926
Turnovers 1.36 5 Chargers 1.86 8 Saints 98-27 0.784
Yds/Drive 38.06 2 Saints 31.33 24 Jets 90-12 0.882
ToP/Drive 2:47.4 13 Bengals 2:57.5 30 Packers 96-27 0.780
Yds/Play 6.161 3 Saints 4.970 6 Jets 90-17 0.841
First Downs/Drive 2.20 1 Colts 1.88 29 Jets 83-21 0.798
3rd/4th Down 52.8% 1 Colts 44.7% 29 Jets 89-17 0.840
Avg Start Pos 27.9 29 Vikings 28.3 11 Cowboys 99-34 0.744
3 and Outs 2.71 2 Cowboys 3.29 27 Jets 66-23 0.742
RZ Eff 75.4% 2 Cardinals 61.6% 11 Saints 71-36 0.664
Plays/Drive 6.177 2 Falcons 6.305 32 Packers 73-39 0.652
Penalty Yds / Play 0.592 3 Jaguars 0.837 12 49ers 77-42 0.647
RB Success 48.9% 8 Patriots 49.0% 25 Vikings 71-42 0.628
Yds/Carry 3.69 30 Titans 4.13 14 Ravens 49-53 0.480
Net Punts Yds/Game 39.12 20 Raiders 42.42 29 Patriots 40-50 0.444
Overall 1 Colts 23 Jets

A couple thoughts:

  • The Colts Offense is ranked in the Top 5 of the 7 best categories in 2009, and Top 3 in the 6 best categories (sort on the far right column).  The Colts last 2 opponents are ranked #1 in those 6 top categories defensively (Jets X 5, Bills in ANPY/A).
  • I'm still loving the Red Zone Efficiency stats, with the offense scoring 75% of the points possible.  The defense is also very good at this stat, which is a great sign.
  • Check out the Win-Loss record for Yards / Carry.  Ron Jaworski was mocking Merrill Hoge on Monday morning about how it is a passing game now, and not a running game.

A new feature this week:  Week by Week Rankings.  Take a look (click on the headers to sort):

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Jaguars 85 190 95 145 143 105
2 Dolphins 90 403 272 74 405 239
3 Cardinals 133 85 63 97 90 49
4 Seahawks 11 259 79 17 370 139
5 Titans 48 39 20 60 28 17
7 Rams 10 69 16 54 112 41
8 49ers 211 99 108 136 194 132
9 Texans 132 246 156 126 201 126
10 Patriots 205 276 265 179 132 119
11 Ravens 114 281 172 51 259 99
12 Texans 70 331 175 75 319 160
13 Titans 18 327 132 27 357 149
14 Broncos 251 183 214 187 206 179
15 Jaguars 25 416 217 67 406 236

The Jaguars game was one of the worst of the year for the Colts, especially on the defensive side.  You can also see why the Colts are the most consistent team in the league.

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