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Around SBN: NFL Week One: Previews and Predictions for all 15 games

Week 13: Inside the Numbers

Sorry again for the week off last week.  I finally have everything back to where it was, waiting to see if my data can be recovered from my dead hard drive.  I think what I have is correct, so we're going with it!

We're in the home stretch now of the season, and the Colts just keep right on ticking.  Sunday saw the Colts take it to the Titans once again, being extremely efficient on offense, and making the big plays on defense to get the Colts to 12-0, one win away from the #1 seed and guaranteeing the Road to Miami comes through the Circle City.  A few notes from the game:

  • The Colts have now won 12 games in 7 straight seasons.  Only 7 other franchises have seven such seasons in their history!  The Cowboys come the closest in terms of straight seasons with 4.  The all-time record is 11 by the Cowboys, followed by the Colts' 10.
  • It happened against the Texans, but Peyton Manning passed John Elway for 3rd all time in Completions.  Elway did it in 7250 passes.  Manning? 6420.
  • Again from the win against the Texans (via Elias):

    The Colts rallied from a 17-0 deficit to post a 35-27 win at Houston. It was the fifth time that Peyton Manning led his team to a regular-season victory after trailing by at least 17 points, a new NFL record. (Manning and the Colts also won the AFC title game in January 2007 after trailing the Patriots by 18 points.)

    For comparison, they mentioned on Sunday night that Brett Favre has never come back from a 14 point deficit.  I'm just saying...
  • We all know that the Colts have now won 21 consecutive regular season games, tying the record set by the Patriots just last season.  I'd really like the Colts to get one more.

The win over the Titans certainly looked very nice, but what do the numbers say?  Let's have a look:

Star-divide

Here are the numbers from Week 13:

StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankOff/Def AboveOff/Def BelowRecord
DSR 81.3% 4 76.5% 26 N N 3-0
ANPY/A 7.838 11 5.182 13 Y N 7-0
Turnovers 0 1 2 10 Y N 9-1
Yds/Drive 39.78 6 37.50 22 N N 3-0
ToP/Drive 3:00.1 7 3:17.9 29 N N 6-1
Yds/Play 5.594 14 4.870 12 Y N 5-1
First Downs/Drive 2.56 4 2.40 28 N N 2-2
3rd/4th Down 64.3% 1 44.4% 23 N N 6-0
Avg Start Pos 32.4 12 31.7 18 N N 7-4
3 and Outs 3 11 1 30 N N 3-2
RZ Eff 85.7% 3 48.6% 9 Y N 5-4
Plays/Drive 7.111 5 7.700 32 N N 4-3
Penalty Yds / Play 0.625 14 0.649 18 N N 3-4
RB Success 55.6% 4 60.0% 32 N N 3-6
Yds/Carry 3.26 21 4.30 21 N Y 3-5
Net Punts Yds/Game 36.00 28 39.00 10 N Y 2-3
Ranking - Week (32) 2 23 9
Ranking - Season (384) 15 278 115

Some thoughts:

  • It wasn't the greatest day passing the ball for Manning, but it rarely is against the Titans.  Still above average though, along with the defense.  Teams have rarely lost this year when they've done that (97-5).
  • 3rd/4th Down conversions were key on Sunday, as the Colts had the best conversion rate in the league on Sunday, and the Titans missed a couple really big 4th downs.
  • Also key was Red Zone Efficiency.  Offense ranked 3rd, Defense ranked 9th.  Excellent job this week.
  • RB Success is very interesting this week.  The offense were successful over 55% of their runs, good for 4th best in the league.  That is fantastic against a defense like the Titans.  But the defensive number is concerning:  dead last.  Now, I know the Colts held Chris Johnson in check the whole game, keeping him from breaking the long one.  But he consistently gained yardage each time he touched the ball, which is what the defense needs to focus on.  A 4.3 YPC is good, unless the other team actually gets 4 yards each time they run the ball: they'll march into the end zone.

Full Season Stats (12 games):

StatisticOffenseRankBestDefenseRankBestRecordWin %
DSR 79.1% 1 Colts 70.3% 19 Jets 78-8 0.907
ANPY/A 7.655 4 Saints 4.699 8 Bills 97-5 0.951
Turnovers 1.25 4 Chargers 2.00 6 Saints 88-20 0.815
Yds/Drive 38.72 1 Colts 31.48 23 Packers 79-11 0.878
ToP/Drive 2:48.7 11 Bengals 2:58.0 32 Packers 86-24 0.782
Yds/Play 6.263 3 Saints 5.024 7 Jets 81-17 0.827
First Downs/Drive 2.24 1 Colts 1.87 28 Bengals 70-19 0.787
3rd/4th Down 51.0% 1 Colts 44.5% 30 Bengals 75-16 0.824
Avg Start Pos 28.3 25 Bears 27.4 7 Cardinals 87-26 0.770
3 and Outs 2.42 1 Colts 3.42 23 Eagles 57-21 0.731
RZ Eff 72.1% 3 Cardinals 57.5% 5 Redskins 59-33 0.641
Plays/Drive 6.182 2 Falcons 6.266 32 Packers 66-32 0.673
Penalty Yds / Play 0.610 2 Dolphins 0.885 7 Seahawks 65-38 0.631
RB Success 50.4% 8 Broncos 48.0% 19 Vikings 64-35 0.646
Yds/Carry 3.81 28 Titans 4.23 17 Ravens 43-43 0.500
Net Punts Yds/Game 38.95 22 Raiders 42.52 29 Patriots 35-43 0.449
Overall 1 Colts 20 Packers

A couple notes:

  •  The Colts are, once again, the Best Offense in the NFL, leading in 5 categories, and Top 4 in 11/16 categories.  These are all stats the Colts have excelled at in the past, so this should be no surprise to anyone.
  • The defense is still giving up the longest drives in the league, at almost 3 minutes a drive.  They were doing great, but have struggled lately.  Need to get this worked out before the Playoffs.
  • The Defense has been great forcing Turnovers, getting 2 / game.  Fantastic.  Also, the Red Zone Efficiency is great at 57.5%.  To put this in perspective, the Colts offense is outscoring their opponents on each Red Zone trip by 5.0 - 4.0.  NFL average is 3 RZ trips / game, so that is 3 points in the Colts favor, just from the Red Zone.  Awesome.
  • This year, more than any other recent year, is defining the mantra: "Pass and defend the pass = Wins".  95.1% speaks for itself.

2 recs  |  Comment 10 comments |

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Awesome

As usual. Keep it up!

by AbroadColtsFan on Dec 9, 2009 12:44 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

Thanks for all the work.

Glad to see we’re back to being the top offense. ST suffered this week as well as the defense.

Broncos running efficiency has me a little worried as well as their good pass d.

by diagenesis on Dec 9, 2009 1:04 AM EST reply actions  

RB Success is very interesting this week. The offense were successful over 55% of their runs, good for 4th best in the league. That is fantastic against a defense like the Titans. But the defensive number is concerning: dead last. Now, I know the Colts held Chris Johnson in check the whole game, keeping him from breaking the long one. But he consistently gained yardage each time he touched the ball, which is what the defense needs to focus on. A 4.3 YPC is good, unless the other team actually gets 4 yards each time they run the ball: they’ll march into the end zone.

I’d like to point out the following here….

The last 4 weeks, we have faced the Patriots, Ravens, Texans, and the Titans. All of which feature quality RB’s and quality WR’s. In the case of the Texans and Patriots, the Colts spent much of those games guarding against some of the passing attacks in the league, leaving the run open and available.

Against the Ravens and Titans, the Colts had to deal with some serious running attacks. And, with the Titans, the Colts had to deal with essentially a Wildcat type setup with Vince Young in the game.

The defense is still giving up the longest drives in the league, at almost 3 minutes a drive. They were doing great, but have struggled lately. Need to get this worked out before the Playoffs.

These numbers are a bit skewed in the fact that the defense still tends to be on the field entirely too much. Why? The Colts offense can score in 2 minutes…..which it has done much too often this year. Granted, that’s great for us, but that can put the Colts D back on the field too quickly.

I’d rather have my team up by 14 and letting the other team take 5-7 min to get a scoring drive going, especially when most are ending in FG’s…

by DevilsReject on Dec 9, 2009 8:49 AM EST reply actions  

Not true. As we saw on Sunday, the offense can score in 20 seconds. Sure, it’s a field goal at the end of a half, but it’s still 20 seconds.

Manning makes it Wayne on 'dem hoes! Wayne on 'dem hoes! Wayne on 'dem hoes!
http://monkeybiziu.deviantart.com

by MonkeyBusiness on Dec 9, 2009 9:26 AM EST up reply actions  

On the Manning comeback stats

I can think of four in the regular season (@ Bucs 2003, @ Houston 2008, vs. New England 2009, @ Houston 2009) but what is the fifth one?

"Pressure is something you feel if you don't know what the hell you're doing."-Peyton Manning

by P0RKINS2 on Dec 9, 2009 11:56 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

Oh I remember!

against the Rams in 2005. We were down 17-0 in the first quarter yet came back to win 45-28. That game was pretty crazy.

"Pressure is something you feel if you don't know what the hell you're doing."-Peyton Manning

by P0RKINS2 on Dec 9, 2009 11:59 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Great article, as alway.

Plus breaking news: Jim Sorgi placed on IR (colts.com). Oh noooooo!

by Gio on Dec 9, 2009 12:17 PM EST reply actions  

And the team signed Toudouze. It was necessary.to have 4 OT (with CJ injured, we didn’t have backup tackle vs. Tennessee), and 2 backup QBs….

by Gio on Dec 9, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Talking about regular season only.

"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir

Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: In England, the Speaker of the House is not allowed to speak.

by Cassieper on Dec 9, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

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