Rumor that the Colts will let Smith walk.

by slider09 on Feb 12, 2009 9:27 AM EST Comment 47 comments

I can't let my source be known, but I'm hearing within the Colts organization that they are not planning on signing Hunter Smith. They apparantly want to get someone to play for the league minimum at that position. This sucks in my opinion. We saw first hand what a good punter can do in the San Diego game. I was really hoping to see what our 2 great kickers could do now that Purnell is out of the picture. In my opinion, our kickers were constantly having to cater to the horrible coverage teams that Russ was responsible for. Asking for the ball to be kicked as high as possible and praying for a fair catch instead of drilling it 60 yards downfield and trusting your coverage teams could do their job. Russ Purnell sucks and I'm glad he's with Jack Del Rio now. They can suck together.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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Hunter

Was he really that good though? He was consistent most of the time, but I can’t remember any time in the past few years where I thought he had an excellent kicking game. He was near terrible in the SD playoff loss this year. I really don’t care if he leaves, as long as there’s someone quality out there.

by DoTheMathis98 on Feb 12, 2009 9:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree.

If he could pin it inside the 15 consistently, I would want him to stay. But his performance during the Playoff game this year was not impressive. I know he kicked from horrible field position, but those kicks were way too high…not enough distance. Was one of the many frustrating issues that night.

My vote is “meh”

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Feb 12, 2009 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree completely

He’s a good kicker, not a great kicker. Let’s see if we can find a new guy who could be great.

by yellowsnow on Feb 12, 2009 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eh

Hunter Smith is a great guy, but a very average punter to say the least. Never pinned opponents inside the 10. Horrible punts in San Diego game. I think the Colts could only upgrade at the position.

by mullit on Feb 12, 2009 10:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good

I wish Smith well whereever he goes, but it’s time to move on for the Colts.

They already signed 2008 draft prospect Mike Dragosavich.

Drago!

by project geo on Feb 12, 2009 11:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

where'd you see that? no google news results on it and he's not listed on the roster

I'm so fly,
I take this parachute off
I might fall and die
-Young Jeezy "Go Crazy"

by shake n bake on Feb 12, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Colts sign P Mike Dragosavich.

by project geo on Feb 12, 2009 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Drago

“I must punt you!”

by ctnyc on Feb 12, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Patriots picked him up as an undrafted rookie free agent last year

The draft guys from ESPN and SI liked him and so did Belichick.. I liked him and was hoping he’d land with a team, possibly back with New England this year, but guess not if he’s been picked up by the Colts.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Feb 17, 2009 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stats

It’s pretty easy to dismiss punters and kickers since you often remember the bad more than the good, but I’d be interested in looking at some numbers before labeling Hunter as just “average.” I’ll leave the leg work to someone who has a knack for stats.

That being said, I don’t mind saving some money in the punting department if that means we can have some extra cash for the bigger necessities.

by burc on Feb 12, 2009 11:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

FO had the Indy Punt Team has 7th in the league this season

but they’ve usually been terrible.

I'm so fly,
I take this parachute off
I might fall and die
-Young Jeezy "Go Crazy"

by shake n bake on Feb 12, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hunter was 14th in gross average

11th in net average

mediocre except…

he was the only punter in the league with 10 times as many punts inside the 20 as touchbacks.

So those numbers would suggest a mediocre leg strength-wise, but excellent touch.

I'm so fly,
I take this parachute off
I might fall and die
-Young Jeezy "Go Crazy"

by shake n bake on Feb 12, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree shake, Hunter was good at punting if we were near of past the 50 yd line, but if we needed a long, high punt he just didn’t have it. The last few years his punts have been too low to allow the coverage unit time to get down the field and force a fair catch.

by danorocks17 on Feb 12, 2009 11:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stats?

Unfortunately there is no stat for poor punts in big games….

by mullit on Feb 12, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Big games

If by big games you mean the San Diego game this year, then that only confirms by argument above. People only tend to remember the bad parts of a kicking game. If I recall correctly, weren’t most of Hunter’s punts in the SD game coming from well inside our own red zone? Also, I can’t remember the last time Hunter had a punt blocked, to his credit.

by burc on Feb 12, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yea

That is exactly what I am referring to Burc. It is quite obvious from the last playoff game that Hunter Smith is expendable. A no name punter named Mike Scifres punted San Diego past the Colts while also in bad field position. People tend to remember the bad parts of a kicking game? Okay, give me one memorable Hunter Smith punt? One game changing punt….you can’t. By the way… credit goes to the line when preventing blocked kicks… not the punter! Lol, what does the kicker do to prevent blocked kicks? Pump fake? Get real

by mullit on Feb 13, 2009 12:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So you’re telling me that Scifres punted from inside his own red zone and managed to pin us behind the ten yard line all game? Also, I don’t think that Hunter is indispensable, quite the opposite; as I said above, If it saves us some cap space and we can an adequate replacement, I’m all for it. You’re probably right about the line doing most of the work in preventing blocks, but I think the punter has to be pretty aware of the rush himself, thus deserving some credit. My final thought on Hunter is that he was a solid punter who probably suffered a lot from poor coverage units. If we let him walk, I wish him the best. I never thought I’d be debating the punting game on this site, lol.

by burc on Feb 13, 2009 12:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He did significantly change field position

The one that stands out in my mind, although there were a couple insane punts, was I believe the one where the Colts drove down the field but Reggie dropped the 1st down catch. Then the Colts forced a 3 and out and the Chargers had to punt from around their own 30 and Scifres had that 60+ yard that went to about our 11. You can’t really use that as an argument AGAINST Smith because, well I don’t think Scifres or any punter will replicate a game like that anytime soon. If I offered Scifres a million bucks and gave him 20 tries, I doubt he could replicate that performance. It was pretty much the punter equivalent to throwing for 500+ yards and 6-8 TDs. So I’m agreeing with you on that count.

On the flip side, if we can save 500k+ for other needs, I dug the guy, but he’d have to go. Besides, if the coverage units can compensate even if our next punter isn’t as good, there will probably still be a net gain in net yards per punt. I’d rather have a punter only be able to punt 45 yards and the average return be 2-4 yards over someone who could punt it 60 and have a 15-20 yard return. That’s why I like punters like Feagles and Rocca. Not huge legs, but their accuracy is amazing. And Rocca can tackle like a madman, he was a rugby player. Even that one vicious shot he took in preseason, he popped back up and jogged off the field.

Jim Sorgi runs a 4.6 40. That's all I've got to say about that.

by monstersbox on Feb 13, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rocca was an Australian Rules Football player, actually. Which is not anything like rugby, but does involve tackling.

by eltharion_doa on Feb 13, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If they really want a punter for league minimum

There goes my fantasy of grabbing Shane Lechler out of FA (assuming they don’t tag him first).

by LovinBlue on Feb 12, 2009 11:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Scifres

I think Scifres is a FA. Hey, if you can’t beat ’em, sign ’em.

by TouchdownMonkey on Feb 12, 2009 11:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

seriously.

Got our kicker from NE, I say we get our punter from SD.

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Feb 12, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no don't

when we took NE’s kicker they went out and got an even better one. I can’t imagine what monstrosity SD would find to punt.

I'm so fly,
I take this parachute off
I might fall and die
-Young Jeezy "Go Crazy"

by shake n bake on Feb 12, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gostkowski is better on kickoffs

But I know who I’d rather have kicking field goals, especially come playoff time.

(Interesting enough, Vinny has actually had a better kick-off average than Gostkowski in each of the last three years. Gostkowski has had many more touchbacks though, I’d comfortably say he’s the better kick-off guy.)

by project geo on Feb 12, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and I know that there is no evidence that FG accuracy among NFL level kickers

is consistent from year to year or that clutch ability exists.

I'm so fly,
I take this parachute off
I might fall and die
-Young Jeezy "Go Crazy"

by shake n bake on Feb 12, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

Football Outsiders fans like us know this. Kickers are going to kick around the league average, a guy could have a perfect season but he’ll naturally regress the next year.

What is consistent though is kickoffs. Hence a guy like Olindo Mare still being in the league.

by project geo on Feb 12, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

huh

so were you just saying that Vinny’s rep as clutch makes you feel better? Or that he is a better FG kicker or actually clutch?

I'm so fly,
I take this parachute off
I might fall and die
-Young Jeezy "Go Crazy"

by shake n bake on Feb 12, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We had a certain fella who was better

And technically one of, if not the best kicker in history (I really don’t feel like looking that up). And that didn’t exactly work out for us.

You know it’s the offseason when the kicker thread is getting all the love.

Jim Sorgi runs a 4.6 40. That's all I've got to say about that.

by monstersbox on Feb 12, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no Vandy sucked at kickoffs hardcore

and FG accuracy doesn’t seem to be a significantly repeatable skill. So we may have had one of the luckiest FG kickers in NFL history not anywhere near the best.

I'm so fly,
I take this parachute off
I might fall and die
-Young Jeezy "Go Crazy"

by shake n bake on Feb 12, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

FG accuracy doesn’t seem to be a significantly repeatable skill

I don’t get it. Explain please.

by ctnyc on Feb 12, 2009 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

a kickers FG accuracy isn't consistent from year to year

for the most part they bounce above and below the league average.

From the data (FO’s) Hitting a high % of your FGs doesn’t make you any more likely to hit a high % the next year.

I'm so fly,
I take this parachute off
I might fall and die
-Young Jeezy "Go Crazy"

by shake n bake on Feb 12, 2009 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm trying to find the article

but my google powers are failing me. I can only find references to it, but not the article or a link to it.

I'm so fly,
I take this parachute off
I might fall and die
-Young Jeezy "Go Crazy"

by shake n bake on Feb 12, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well considering

His accuracy for his career was about 78% for 40-50 and 68% for 50+ yarders and 2nd all time behind Nick Folk but his career was 7 seasons longer, I’d have to say that statistically speaking he was one of the best. And the only person to be remotely close to him that kicked 100% for a season was Gary Anderson (who wasn’t a slouch kicker) who had 2 less than him. With 42 consecutive, which is pretty impressive. And considering his career FG % after 9 seasons is still 86.5% after pulling an Ace Ventura, the only person remotely close to him in terms of years played and % is Stover at 83.7%.

If kickoff touchbacks and long field goals are what make great kickers, Janikowski and his 77.2% career FG % would be king. But he’s not. In fact, he only has a 46% FG % at 50+ yards. Bironas is at 61%, so the kickers with the awesome legs aren’t even kicking 50+ yarders like he was. Gostkowski, huge leg and all has only attempted 2 his entire career.

So yes, Vanderjagt was amazing but he wasn’t clutch. And after that miss it completely messed up his ability to kick even remotely close to the level he once was. So yes, I’d much rather have a kicker that kicks 70% in the regular season but comes out down 2 with 1 second left and boots a 46 yarder in a playoff game. And so would Polian.

Jim Sorgi runs a 4.6 40. That's all I've got to say about that.

by monstersbox on Feb 12, 2009 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Seems strange

I usually trust hard, empirical data, but this seems counter-intuitive. It seems like there would be some kickers who would be consistently above average for whatever reason – superior technique, better practice habits, innate skill, whatever. Like baseball pitchers: some have great control, some don’t.

What you’re saying leads to the conclusion that kickers are basically all the same (with extreme examples excepted) and therefore interchangeable. Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but again, I don’t get it.

by ctnyc on Feb 12, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm trying to find the article, but still failing

There is probably some difference, but I think the point is that they are some much more fungible than people think.

I'm so fly,
I take this parachute off
I might fall and die
-Young Jeezy "Go Crazy"

by shake n bake on Feb 12, 2009 6:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

*so not some much

I'm so fly,
I take this parachute off
I might fall and die
-Young Jeezy "Go Crazy"

by shake n bake on Feb 12, 2009 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I mean I agree

That there’s some years where dudes put up some insane numbers that led FO to create the analysis in the first place, but Vanderjagt I think was the exception to the rule. He was consistently a great kicker, until his moment to solidify that came up. Since he pretty much stopped the train in 2005 (not saying we didn’t deserve to lose it, but the comeback and momentum was awesome and it would’ve been overtime with momentum on our side), it seriously got into his head. I remember watching the Cowboys games when he was there and wishing I had a voodoo doll of him, but after he kept missing wide right, I sort of felt bad for him. But like I said, I’d rather have someone who all the announcers would say “Why are they bringing that guy on with 30 seconds left on 4th and 2 and trying to kick a 53 yard FG? No way that guy makes it.” but has proven he’s clutch than someone who can kick it out of the back of the endzone on a kickoff but doesn’t have the experience, or has choked in the past. You goto admit, the Vinny kick at the end of the regular season SD game (yeah I know the playoff one from 06) was clutch as hell.

But if you’re like me, you ALWAYS think a kicker’s going to miss. Even when it’s not crunch time. I hate kickers, I really do. Or I hate kicking situations I guess.

Jim Sorgi runs a 4.6 40. That's all I've got to say about that.

by monstersbox on Feb 12, 2009 7:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I definitely think Vinny is clutch

There’s no other kicker I’d rather have in the playoffs.

by project geo on Feb 12, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Purnell

Players do what there coaches tell them. Smith was being told on a consitant basis by Purnell to kick as high as possible for coverage purposes. Therefore it’s hard to base any opinions on his NET.

by slider09 on Feb 12, 2009 12:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Way to save...

I hate to say it, but Hunter hasn’t stood out as exceptional (though he is on a mediocre ST at best). How much say would Coyer have. This is a position where you can probably get away with an average guy making minimum.

I wouldn’t take signing Dragosavich as an indicator though since we have signed extra kickers before in the offseason.

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing...

by bluegirl on Feb 12, 2009 12:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I look at the Dragosavich signing as a start

Next they’ll draft a guy and/or sign an undrafted free agent this April, and let the best man win through training camp. I like there being a competition.

I thought it helped push Smith the last few years.

by project geo on Feb 12, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

true

They have brought in punters before in the past to push Hunter or just to push his buttons (after he blabbed to Kravitz). This time though, it’s the end for him. Not because he’s bad, because he’s not, but because he costs a lot more than a reasonable alternative.

by willyduer on Feb 12, 2009 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The new ST coach has made name for himself out of finding and developing great punters in college. I think this is a smart move and have a lot faith in the new guy to make this move pay off.

by dsvirsky on Feb 12, 2009 5:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs