Finding the Winning Factors - Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Attempt

by mgrex03 on Feb 18, 2009 12:02 PM EST in Winning Stats Comment 8 comments

First off, I want to thank everyone for their ideas last week, and plan on looking at all of the suggestions (except Point scored vs. Points allowed, smart ass). I've also slightly modified my title. As monstersbox pointed out, there really isn't 1 factor that will tell us everything we want to know; it's a combination of factors, so that's what we'll be looking at. Bobman, I answered your methodology question as well.

The first stat I'm going to look at is Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt. This is a stat contrived from Pro-Football-Reference.com, and here is exactly what it is:

(pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards) / (passing attempts + sacks)

The reasoning behind picking this stat is it includes 5 different passing stats into one number, really only leaving out fumbles in what a QB does. I'm also guessing the guys at PFR have done some research on this, making this a valuable stat. I certainly found this out after crunching the numbers.

I've compiled stats since 1996 (13 seasons), which is just over 6,500 games. I'm going to post some overall observations, then post the tables with some more thoughts after jump. Here are my thoughts and findings:

The overall average for the NFL over the past 13 seasons is 5.34 / att. As a point of reference, straight yards / attempt is 6.3. This makes sense, as ANPY/A takes into account INTs and Sacks, so it should be a little lower.
Guess which team is #1 overall offensively? That Manning guy is pretty good. With an average of 6.75 / att, they exceed the NFL average for yds/att, which is simply amazing. This number is so high, the difference between the Colts and the Packers (#2) is larger than the difference between the Packers and the Eagles (#16)!
Defensively, the Colts ranked 23rd at 5.57 / att. Not as good as I was hoping for, but the Colts defense struggled for some of those early years. #1 Overall? Tampa Bay at 4.38 / att.
When a team's offense is over the average, they are 2304-971-2, which is a Win Percentage of 70.3%, which is pretty damn good. Defensively, holding the other team below the average has a record of 2289-948-6, which is a Win Percentage of 70.7%, almost exactly the same as the offense. What happens when you do both? 1521-186, or 89.1%. I think this is a keeper.
The best game over the past 13 seasons? Week 1 of 2005, where Ben Roethlisberger had an amazing 23.5 / att against the Titans. Manning's best game was in Week 10, 2002 against the Eagles, at 16.5 / att. The worst game? None other than Ryan Leaf at -6.4 / att. Can't say I'm shocked.
Lastly, I wanted to see the offensive stats over the past 10 seasons, which are Peyton's years minus his rookie year, to see just how much better he's been over the rest of the league. Here's the top 3 teams since 1999:

Team Pass Yds Sack Yds TD INT Pass Atts Sacked ANYP/A

Colts 43064 1268 318 138 5585 194 7.258

Chiefs 38324 2150 226 154 5247 341 6.042

Patriots 38323 2190 266 141 5412 364 6.078

That is more than 1.2 yards more per attempt than the 2nd place team (the Patriots). Simply unbelievable.

Team	Pass Yds	Sack Yds	TD	INT	Pass Atts	Sacked	ANYP/A
Colts	43064	1268	318	138	5585	194	7.258
Chiefs	38324	2150	226	154	5247	341	6.042
Patriots	38323	2190	266	141	5412	364	6.078

After the jump you'll see the offensive and defensive numbers for each team, as well as Win/Loss records when going above/below the league average. Click on the headers to sort.

Here are the Offensive Numbers:

Team	Pass Yds	Sack Yds	TD	INT	Pass Atts	Sacked	ANYP/A
Colts	53908	2063	381	194	7203	322	6.742
Patriots	50227	2968	348	188	7127	464	6.028
Packers	52244	2436	381	240	7368	362	6.032
Broncos	48504	2524	304	207	6791	387	5.955
Vikings	50095	3278	339	228	6778	528	5.932
Jaguars	46246	3023	258	160	6569	521	5.809
Chiefs	48018	2806	280	196	6813	437	5.792
Titans	41087	2228	233	170	5994	358	5.647
Rams	53924	4094	306	267	7311	596	5.556
Seahawks	46478	2974	291	216	6768	497	5.451
49ers	45394	3072	294	202	6685	524	5.425
Redskins	44584	2988	255	186	6700	453	5.358
Saints	49372	3012	292	249	7169	469	5.367
Cowboys	44691	2836	263	226	6466	440	5.350
Eagles	47312	3312	292	192	7169	551	5.337
Steelers	42868	3011	261	216	6131	482	5.347
Raiders	45905	3516	276	204	6797	577	5.252
Jets	44927	2886	268	220	6721	455	5.226
Dolphins	44676	2724	243	217	6766	411	5.162
Panthers	44663	3210	274	224	6603	493	5.193
Buccaneers	42526	2969	250	193	6565	467	5.101
Texans	26418	2161	137	129	3835	360	5.052
Bengals	45559	3188	269	216	6989	508	5.073
Chargers	45528	2925	271	243	6870	426	5.083
Falcons	42891	3767	254	216	6198	594	5.080
Giants	44206	3020	248	208	6896	460	5.001
Bills	44039	3882	240	214	6497	566	5.002
Cardinals	49096	3571	256	270	7456	527	4.822
Ravens	42915	3442	252	215	6675	506	4.851
Lions	45592	3563	240	251	7149	578	4.599
Bears	41987	3041	226	233	6959	464	4.443
Browns	31700	2749	181	199	4981	413	4.378
Total	1447580	97239	8664	6789	212999	15196	5.338

And the Defensive Numbers:

Team	Pass Yds	Sack Yds	TD	INT	Pass Atts	Sacked	ANYP/A
Buccaneers	40731	3247	221	250	6510	497	4.375
Steelers	43383	3622	235	224	6758	575	4.689
Ravens	45650	3509	252	262	6972	537	4.713
Packers	44889	3285	284	254	6987	507	4.784
Eagles	43807	3561	232	211	6846	550	4.785
Patriots	47304	3278	259	245	7144	497	4.997
Dolphins	44090	3338	268	231	6524	533	5.061
Redskins	43444	2653	248	213	6754	432	5.033
Bills	43145	3306	241	191	6602	488	5.087
Giants	46981	3538	263	221	6968	553	5.153
Jets	44931	2816	248	226	6714	433	5.164
Cowboys	43321	2871	265	194	6673	462	5.189
Browns	33475	1897	192	172	5028	309	5.186
Panthers	46361	3212	270	230	6835	492	5.213
Broncos	46006	3198	267	211	6897	502	5.224
Bears	46894	2965	272	215	7054	449	5.290
Rams	46620	3350	303	238	6641	524	5.393
Chargers	49580	2974	323	232	7372	494	5.419
Seahawks	49222	3201	279	227	7102	523	5.428
Jaguars	45968	3169	266	201	6681	499	5.442
Raiders	45695	2983	274	207	6569	457	5.533
Titans	44311	2782	277	198	6415	465	5.546
Colts	44358	3068	271	188	6400	466	5.571
Chiefs	48430	3016	281	218	6901	466	5.596
49ers	49400	3135	321	220	7016	481	5.707
Saints	46893	3380	312	199	6516	542	5.780
Vikings	50946	3120	280	210	7230	480	5.704
Bengals	47879	2580	328	218	6694	398	5.929
Cardinals	46931	2476	313	197	6672	394	5.923
Lions	48630	3017	318	189	6783	456	6.005
Falcons	49018	3161	304	198	6681	501	5.991
Texans	29287	1531	196	99	4060	234	6.339
Total	1447580	97239	8664	6789	212999	15196	5.338

Here are the Win/Loss records of teams when they go above/below average:

Team	Offense								Defense
	Above Average				Below Average				Above Average				Below Average
	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Colts	112	33	0	0.772	18	45	0	0.286	51	61	0	0.455	79	17	0	0.823
Patriots	110	15	0	0.880	29	54	0	0.349	52	45	0	0.536	87	24	0	0.784
Packers	100	28	0	0.781	30	50	0	0.375	22	58	0	0.275	108	20	0	0.844
Broncos	95	26	0	0.785	35	52	0	0.402	43	54	0	0.443	87	24	0	0.784
Vikings	91	33	0	0.734	24	60	0	0.286	44	71	0	0.383	71	22	0	0.763
Jaguars	89	37	0	0.706	26	56	0	0.317	46	63	0	0.422	69	30	0	0.697
Chiefs	76	41	0	0.650	27	64	0	0.297	37	78	0	0.322	66	27	0	0.710
Titans	73	25	0	0.745	39	55	0	0.415	37	66	0	0.359	75	14	0	0.843
Rams	74	37	0	0.667	24	73	0	0.247	26	75	0	0.257	72	35	0	0.673
Seahawks	75	31	0	0.708	34	68	0	0.333	38	77	0	0.330	71	22	0	0.763
49ers	78	33	0	0.703	23	74	0	0.237	28	85	0	0.248	73	22	0	0.768
Redskins	69	33	0	0.676	30	76	1	0.285	27	65	0	0.293	73	43	1	0.628
Saints	68	35	0	0.660	20	85	0	0.190	30	87	0	0.256	58	33	0	0.637
Cowboys	77	25	0	0.755	28	78	0	0.264	32	65	0	0.330	73	38	0	0.658
Eagles	72	28	0	0.720	44	64	2	0.409	29	57	0	0.337	89	33	2	0.726
Steelers	80	23	1	0.774	48	57	0	0.457	29	52	1	0.360	100	27	0	0.787
Raiders	70	41	0	0.631	14	83	0	0.144	26	82	0	0.241	58	42	0	0.580
Jets	71	37	0	0.657	30	70	0	0.300	27	75	0	0.265	74	32	0	0.698
Dolphins	76	26	0	0.745	32	74	0	0.302	25	73	0	0.255	83	27	0	0.755
Panthers	73	37	0	0.664	29	69	0	0.296	31	74	0	0.295	71	32	0	0.689
Buccaneers	68	31	0	0.687	43	66	0	0.394	23	57	0	0.288	88	40	0	0.688
Texans	33	23	0	0.589	15	57	0	0.208	19	69	0	0.216	29	11	0	0.725
Bengals	59	34	0	0.634	21	94	1	0.185	30	94	0	0.242	51	33	1	0.606
Chargers	65	32	0	0.670	32	79	0	0.288	23	78	0	0.228	74	33	0	0.692
Falcons	67	36	1	0.649	28	77	0	0.267	37	88	1	0.298	59	24	0	0.711
Giants	64	21	0	0.753	47	76	1	0.383	27	73	0	0.270	85	23	1	0.784
Bills	69	27	0	0.719	28	84	0	0.250	21	77	0	0.214	76	34	0	0.691
Cardinals	53	38	0	0.582	25	92	0	0.214	30	90	0	0.250	48	40	0	0.545
Ravens	66	21	0	0.759	41	80	1	0.340	25	64	0	0.281	83	36	1	0.696
Lions	44	37	0	0.543	22	105	0	0.173	15	109	0	0.121	51	33	0	0.607
Bears	55	19	0	0.743	40	94	0	0.299	28	79	0	0.262	67	34	0	0.663
Browns	32	28	0	0.533	22	78	0	0.220	13	63	0	0.171	41	43	0	0.488
Total	2304	971	2	0.703	948	2289	6	0.293	971	2304	2	0.297	2289	948	6	0.707

And finally, Win/Loss records when the offense is above average, and the defense holds the other team below average (you'll have to click the link to see it, as I've hit my limit of characters).

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Comments

NEAT WORK!

Thanks for this. I am NOT surprised at all by the Chefs—Trent Green had a few monster years in there, behind only Manning and Warner (and maybe Gannon’s MVP season), etc. A shame about his demise. I AM surprised by the Pats passing studliness—excepting 2007, I always assumed Brady was a merely above-average QB stats-wise, but no better. The “he just wins” arguments don’t seem to have much merit—he appears to be good too, dammit. Bledsoe’s big years may also cloud that picture —he was a big producer.

What makes me really curious is what teams are at the head of the class when their O or D does poorly… now that indicates one or more of the following: luck (non-repeatable) good coaching (repeatable) and good ST play (repeatable). Probably some other variables in there, like refs who suck and screw you in OT of a playoff game.

Oops, did I say that out loud?

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Feb 18, 2009 2:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You will be fined.

You know the Czar (Goodell) doesnt like that!

like refs who suck and screw you in OT of a playoff game

It’s still killing me…

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Feb 18, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So If I read this table right....

Colts are very reliant on offense in this time period—when O performs, they are a .780 team (high) and when O stumbles, the wheels come off for a .299 win pct (middle of the pack). Less reliant on D—when it stumbles we still win decently at a .451 clip (2nd highest) and when the D is on its game, we’re unstoppable at .832 (also 2nd highest). No huge surprise if I am interpreting this data right.

Strangely the Titans have similar D win percentage numbers—suggesting to me that whether their D is up or down they still do okay because it’s the O that carries most weight. Maybe my surprise is fueled by the past few seasons and not their heyday from about 1998-2004. Good coaching, though.

Do we think this can tell us which teams are most balanced? (the smallest delta between the O/D up/down numbers. And which are most reliant on one side of the ball or another (the largest deltas)…

I’d almost prefer to see just the past 3-5 years, as what happened 12 years ago bears little relationship to what happens in 2009…. Not like it’s any extra work or anything…;-)

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Feb 18, 2009 2:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You read the table correctly

And your assessments of the Colts and Titans seem to be correct, in that Wins and Losses depend more on the offense than the defense.

As far as balanced teams, I’m not sure we can find that from this data, but I can think about it (when I’m not at work) and get back to you on it. There’s gotta be something we can pull out of it, not sure what yet though.

I can do the past 5 years relatively quickly, but it will have to wait until tonight. I’ll just link another html file with that info.

NFC North and NFC South writer for SB Nation's NFL Draft blog: Mocking the Draft

by mgrex03 on Feb 18, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, am I the only Colt fan out there screwing around while at work?

Three consecutive posts at mid-day (Seattle time) just make me look bad.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Feb 18, 2009 2:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm back from class, for now

so your not alone.

I think the heavy stats scares some people away. Even some of the sabermetrics stuff I read on baseball will start going over my head and lose me, or I’ll start just skimming over it.

I ain't tryin' do you, I'm just tryin' do me
Last album did two, I'm just tryin' do three.
-Young Jeezy "I Luv It

by shake n bake on Feb 18, 2009 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs