Finding the Winning Factors - Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Attempt

First off, I want to thank everyone for their ideas last week, and plan on looking at all of the suggestions (except Point scored vs. Points allowed, smart ass).  I've also slightly modified my title.  As monstersbox pointed out, there really isn't 1 factor that will tell us everything we want to know; it's a combination of factors, so that's what we'll be looking at.  Bobman, I answered your methodology question as well.

The first stat I'm going to look at is Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt.  This is a stat contrived from Pro-Football-Reference.com, and here is exactly what it is:

(pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards) / (passing attempts + sacks)

The reasoning behind picking this stat is it includes 5 different passing stats into one number, really only leaving out fumbles in what a QB does.  I'm also guessing the guys at PFR have done some research on this, making this a valuable stat.  I certainly found this out after crunching the numbers.

I've compiled stats since 1996 (13 seasons), which is just over 6,500 games.  I'm going to post some overall observations, then post the tables with some more thoughts after jump.  Here are my thoughts and findings:

  • The overall average for the NFL over the past 13 seasons is 5.34 / att.  As a point of reference, straight yards / attempt is 6.3.  This makes sense, as ANPY/A takes into account INTs and Sacks, so it should be a little lower.
  • Guess which team is #1 overall offensively?  That Manning guy is pretty good.  With an average of 6.75 / att, they exceed the NFL average for yds/att, which is simply amazing.  This number is so high, the difference between the Colts and the Packers (#2) is larger than the difference between the Packers and the Eagles (#16)!
  • Defensively, the Colts ranked 23rd at 5.57 / att.  Not as good as I was hoping for, but the Colts defense struggled for some of those early years.  #1 Overall?  Tampa Bay at 4.38 / att.
  • When a team's offense is over the average, they are 2304-971-2, which is a Win Percentage of 70.3%, which is pretty damn good.  Defensively, holding the other team below the average has a record of 2289-948-6, which is a Win Percentage of 70.7%, almost exactly the same as the offense.  What happens when you do both?  1521-186, or 89.1%.  I think this is a keeper.
  • The best game over the past 13 seasons?  Week 1 of 2005, where Ben Roethlisberger had an amazing 23.5 / att against the Titans.  Manning's best game was in Week 10, 2002 against the Eagles, at 16.5 / att.  The worst game?  None other than Ryan Leaf at -6.4 / att. Can't say I'm shocked.
  • Lastly, I wanted to see the offensive stats over the past 10 seasons, which are Peyton's years minus his rookie year, to see just how much better he's been over the rest of the league.  Here's the top 3 teams since 1999:
    Team Pass Yds Sack Yds TD INT Pass Atts Sacked ANYP/A
    Colts 43064 1268 318 138 5585 194 7.258
    Chiefs 38324 2150 226 154 5247 341 6.042
    Patriots 38323 2190 266 141 5412 364 6.078
    That is more than 1.2 yards more per attempt than the 2nd place team (the Patriots).  Simply unbelievable.

After the jump you'll see the offensive and defensive numbers for each team, as well as Win/Loss records when going above/below the league average.  Click on the headers to sort.

Here are the Offensive Numbers:

Team Pass Yds Sack Yds TD INT Pass Atts Sacked ANYP/A
Colts 53908 2063 381 194 7203 322 6.742
Patriots 50227 2968 348 188 7127 464 6.028
Packers 52244 2436 381 240 7368 362 6.032
Broncos 48504 2524 304 207 6791 387 5.955
Vikings 50095 3278 339 228 6778 528 5.932
Jaguars 46246 3023 258 160 6569 521 5.809
Chiefs 48018 2806 280 196 6813 437 5.792
Titans 41087 2228 233 170 5994 358 5.647
Rams 53924 4094 306 267 7311 596 5.556
Seahawks 46478 2974 291 216 6768 497 5.451
49ers 45394 3072 294 202 6685 524 5.425
Redskins 44584 2988 255 186 6700 453 5.358
Saints 49372 3012 292 249 7169 469 5.367
Cowboys 44691 2836 263 226 6466 440 5.350
Eagles 47312 3312 292 192 7169 551 5.337
Steelers 42868 3011 261 216 6131 482 5.347
Raiders 45905 3516 276 204 6797 577 5.252
Jets 44927 2886 268 220 6721 455 5.226
Dolphins 44676 2724 243 217 6766 411 5.162
Panthers 44663 3210 274 224 6603 493 5.193
Buccaneers 42526 2969 250 193 6565 467 5.101
Texans 26418 2161 137 129 3835 360 5.052
Bengals 45559 3188 269 216 6989 508 5.073
Chargers 45528 2925 271 243 6870 426 5.083
Falcons 42891 3767 254 216 6198 594 5.080
Giants 44206 3020 248 208 6896 460 5.001
Bills 44039 3882 240 214 6497 566 5.002
Cardinals 49096 3571 256 270 7456 527 4.822
Ravens 42915 3442 252 215 6675 506 4.851
Lions 45592 3563 240 251 7149 578 4.599
Bears 41987 3041 226 233 6959 464 4.443
Browns 31700 2749 181 199 4981 413 4.378
Total 1447580 97239 8664 6789 212999 15196 5.338

And the Defensive Numbers:

Team Pass Yds Sack Yds TD INT Pass Atts Sacked ANYP/A
Buccaneers 40731 3247 221 250 6510 497 4.375
Steelers 43383 3622 235 224 6758 575 4.689
Ravens 45650 3509 252 262 6972 537 4.713
Packers 44889 3285 284 254 6987 507 4.784
Eagles 43807 3561 232 211 6846 550 4.785
Patriots 47304 3278 259 245 7144 497 4.997
Dolphins 44090 3338 268 231 6524 533 5.061
Redskins 43444 2653 248 213 6754 432 5.033
Bills 43145 3306 241 191 6602 488 5.087
Giants 46981 3538 263 221 6968 553 5.153
Jets 44931 2816 248 226 6714 433 5.164
Cowboys 43321 2871 265 194 6673 462 5.189
Browns 33475 1897 192 172 5028 309 5.186
Panthers 46361 3212 270 230 6835 492 5.213
Broncos 46006 3198 267 211 6897 502 5.224
Bears 46894 2965 272 215 7054 449 5.290
Rams 46620 3350 303 238 6641 524 5.393
Chargers 49580 2974 323 232 7372 494 5.419
Seahawks 49222 3201 279 227 7102 523 5.428
Jaguars 45968 3169 266 201 6681 499 5.442
Raiders 45695 2983 274 207 6569 457 5.533
Titans 44311 2782 277 198 6415 465 5.546
Colts 44358 3068 271 188 6400 466 5.571
Chiefs 48430 3016 281 218 6901 466 5.596
49ers 49400 3135 321 220 7016 481 5.707
Saints 46893 3380 312 199 6516 542 5.780
Vikings 50946 3120 280 210 7230 480 5.704
Bengals 47879 2580 328 218 6694 398 5.929
Cardinals 46931 2476 313 197 6672 394 5.923
Lions 48630 3017 318 189 6783 456 6.005
Falcons 49018 3161 304 198 6681 501 5.991
Texans 29287 1531 196 99 4060 234 6.339
Total 1447580 97239 8664 6789 212999 15196 5.338

Here are the Win/Loss records of teams when they go above/below average:

Team Offense Defense
Above Average Below Average Above Average Below Average
Win Loss Tie Pct Win Loss Tie Pct Win Loss Tie Pct Win Loss Tie Pct
Colts 112 33 0 0.772 18 45 0 0.286 51 61 0 0.455 79 17 0 0.823
Patriots 110 15 0 0.880 29 54 0 0.349 52 45 0 0.536 87 24 0 0.784
Packers 100 28 0 0.781 30 50 0 0.375 22 58 0 0.275 108 20 0 0.844
Broncos 95 26 0 0.785 35 52 0 0.402 43 54 0 0.443 87 24 0 0.784
Vikings 91 33 0 0.734 24 60 0 0.286 44 71 0 0.383 71 22 0 0.763
Jaguars 89 37 0 0.706 26 56 0 0.317 46 63 0 0.422 69 30 0 0.697
Chiefs 76 41 0 0.650 27 64 0 0.297 37 78 0 0.322 66 27 0 0.710
Titans 73 25 0 0.745 39 55 0 0.415 37 66 0 0.359 75 14 0 0.843
Rams 74 37 0 0.667 24 73 0 0.247 26 75 0 0.257 72 35 0 0.673
Seahawks 75 31 0 0.708 34 68 0 0.333 38 77 0 0.330 71 22 0 0.763
49ers 78 33 0 0.703 23 74 0 0.237 28 85 0 0.248 73 22 0 0.768
Redskins 69 33 0 0.676 30 76 1 0.285 27 65 0 0.293 73 43 1 0.628
Saints 68 35 0 0.660 20 85 0 0.190 30 87 0 0.256 58 33 0 0.637
Cowboys 77 25 0 0.755 28 78 0 0.264 32 65 0 0.330 73 38 0 0.658
Eagles 72 28 0 0.720 44 64 2 0.409 29 57 0 0.337 89 33 2 0.726
Steelers 80 23 1 0.774 48 57 0 0.457 29 52 1 0.360 100 27 0 0.787
Raiders 70 41 0 0.631 14 83 0 0.144 26 82 0 0.241 58 42 0 0.580
Jets 71 37 0 0.657 30 70 0 0.300 27 75 0 0.265 74 32 0 0.698
Dolphins 76 26 0 0.745 32 74 0 0.302 25 73 0 0.255 83 27 0 0.755
Panthers 73 37 0 0.664 29 69 0 0.296 31 74 0 0.295 71 32 0 0.689
Buccaneers 68 31 0 0.687 43 66 0 0.394 23 57 0 0.288 88 40 0 0.688
Texans 33 23 0 0.589 15 57 0 0.208 19 69 0 0.216 29 11 0 0.725
Bengals 59 34 0 0.634 21 94 1 0.185 30 94 0 0.242 51 33 1 0.606
Chargers 65 32 0 0.670 32 79 0 0.288 23 78 0 0.228 74 33 0 0.692
Falcons 67 36 1 0.649 28 77 0 0.267 37 88 1 0.298 59 24 0 0.711
Giants 64 21 0 0.753 47 76 1 0.383 27 73 0 0.270 85 23 1 0.784
Bills 69 27 0 0.719 28 84 0 0.250 21 77 0 0.214 76 34 0 0.691
Cardinals 53 38 0 0.582 25 92 0 0.214 30 90 0 0.250 48 40 0 0.545
Ravens 66 21 0 0.759 41 80 1 0.340 25 64 0 0.281 83 36 1 0.696
Lions 44 37 0 0.543 22 105 0 0.173 15 109 0 0.121 51 33 0 0.607
Bears 55 19 0 0.743 40 94 0 0.299 28 79 0 0.262 67 34 0 0.663
Browns 32 28 0 0.533 22 78 0 0.220 13 63 0 0.171 41 43 0 0.488
Total 2304 971 2 0.703 948 2289 6 0.293 971 2304 2 0.297 2289 948 6 0.707

And finally, Win/Loss records when the offense is above average, and the defense holds the other team below average (you'll have to click the link to see it, as I've hit my limit of characters).

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