Mgrex03 showed us that one of my favorite stats Adjusted Net (Passing) Yards per Attempt predicts team success very strongly.
Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats.com has laid out a convincing case that evaluating QBs without their YAC yards (Air Yards) is more accurate than total passing yards. (It's important to note that the idea isn't that QBs don't contribute at all to YAC, a well thrown pass is more likely to gain YAC but that their contribution is small enough that removing it makes more sense that using it. Mainly because YAC largely depends on the quality and style of receivers the QB has along with the type of passes they throw, dumpoffs/screens vs downfield passing).
Now I've merged the pair into a QB evaluating statistical Frankenstein, ANAY/A. It includes nearly everything a QB does, in particular a few things that normal stats don't, and excludes something that the statistical evidence suggests that a QB doesn't really do (YAC).
ANAY/A=(PassingYards - YAC - INTs*45 - SackYards + TDs*10)/(PassAttempts+Sacks)
2008 QB ANAY/A after the jump. Remember the stat is per attempt, not total value. It's the most effiecent QB, not the most productive, and neither of those are certain to be the best QB.
Table by Mgrex03 because he's awesome like that
QB | Yards | YAC | Air Yards | Att | INT | TD | Sack Yds | Sacks | ANAY/A |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pennington | 3653 | 1546 | 2107 | 476 | 7 | 19 | 121 | 24 | 3.72 |
Rivers | 4009 | 1840 | 2169 | 478 | 11 | 34 | 151 | 25 | 3.70 |
Ryan | 3440 | 1404 | 2036 | 434 | 11 | 16 | 104 | 17 | 3.54 |
Delhomme | 3288 | 1269 | 2019 | 414 | 12 | 15 | 130 | 20 | 3.45 |
Manning P | 4002 | 1627 | 2375 | 555 | 14 | 27 | 124 | 21 | 3.28 |
Brees | 5069 | 2398 | 2671 | 635 | 17 | 34 | 92 | 13 | 3.32 |
Rodgers | 4038 | 1652 | 2386 | 536 | 13 | 28 | 231 | 34 | 3.25 |
Cutler | 4526 | 1881 | 2645 | 616 | 18 | 25 | 69 | 11 | 3.22 |
Manning E | 3238 | 1220 | 2018 | 479 | 10 | 21 | 174 | 27 | 3.17 |
Garcia | 2712 | 1248 | 1464 | 376 | 6 | 12 | 100 | 23 | 3.04 |
Warner | 4583 | 2173 | 2410 | 598 | 14 | 30 | 182 | 26 | 3.04 |
Romo | 3448 | 1578 | 1870 | 450 | 14 | 26 | 123 | 20 | 2.93 |
McNabb | 3916 | 1805 | 2111 | 571 | 11 | 23 | 149 | 23 | 2.86 |
Jackson | 1056 | 502 | 554 | 149 | 2 | 9 | 97 | 14 | 2.80 |
Schaub | 3043 | 1470 | 1573 | 380 | 10 | 15 | 149 | 23 | 2.79 |
Collins | 2676 | 1292 | 1384 | 415 | 7 | 12 | 60 | 8 | 2.67 |
Wallace | 1532 | 755 | 777 | 242 | 3 | 11 | 76 | 14 | 2.64 |
Hill | 2046 | 895 | 1151 | 288 | 8 | 13 | 148 | 23 | 2.49 |
Garrard | 3620 | 1494 | 2126 | 535 | 13 | 15 | 288 | 42 | 2.43 |
Edwards | 2699 | 1266 | 1433 | 374 | 10 | 11 | 143 | 23 | 2.39 |
Quinn | 518 | 230 | 288 | 89 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 2.32 |
Roethlisberger | 3301 | 1368 | 1933 | 469 | 15 | 17 | 284 | 46 | 2.22 |
Thigpen | 2608 | 1101 | 1507 | 420 | 12 | 18 | 162 | 26 | 2.21 |
Orlovsky | 1616 | 652 | 964 | 255 | 8 | 8 | 95 | 14 | 2.19 |
Campbell | 3245 | 1686 | 1559 | 506 | 6 | 13 | 266 | 38 | 2.12 |
Russell | 2423 | 1143 | 1280 | 368 | 8 | 13 | 210 | 31 | 2.11 |
Orton | 2972 | 1450 | 1522 | 465 | 12 | 18 | 160 | 27 | 2.04 |
Cassel | 3693 | 2116 | 1577 | 516 | 11 | 21 | 219 | 47 | 1.91 |
Flacco | 2971 | 1433 | 1538 | 428 | 12 | 14 | 276 | 32 | 1.87 |
Anderson | 1615 | 724 | 891 | 283 | 8 | 9 | 87 | 14 | 1.80 |
Rosenfels | 1431 | 664 | 767 | 174 | 10 | 6 | 58 | 9 | 1.74 |
Bulger | 2720 | 1336 | 1384 | 440 | 13 | 11 | 263 | 38 | 1.35 |
Fitzpatrick | 1905 | 848 | 1057 | 372 | 9 | 8 | 193 | 38 | 1.31 |
Griese | 1073 | 488 | 585 | 184 | 7 | 5 | 69 | 9 | 1.30 |
Favre | 3472 | 1779 | 1693 | 522 | 22 | 22 | 213 | 30 | 1.29 |
Frerotte | 2157 | 1023 | 1134 | 301 | 15 | 12 | 164 | 29 | 1.26 |
Palmer | 731 | 358 | 373 | 129 | 4 | 3 | 67 | 11 | 1.11 |
Hasselbeck | 1216 | 451 | 765 | 209 | 10 | 5 | 119 | 19 | 1.08 |
O'Sullivan | 1678 | 887 | 791 | 220 | 11 | 8 | 197 | 32 | 0.71 |
Losman | 584 | 294 | 290 | 104 | 5 | 2 | 119 | 15 | -0.29 |
AVERAGE | 2.49 |