Adjusted Net Air Yards Per Attempt

Mgrex03 showed us that one of my favorite stats Adjusted Net (Passing) Yards per Attempt predicts team success very strongly.

Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats.com has laid out a convincing case that evaluating QBs without their YAC yards (Air Yards) is more accurate than total passing yards. (It's important to note that the idea isn't that QBs don't contribute at all to YAC, a well thrown pass is more likely to gain YAC but that their contribution is small enough that removing it makes more sense that using it. Mainly because YAC largely depends on the quality and style of receivers the QB has along with the type of passes they throw, dumpoffs/screens vs downfield passing).

Now I've merged the pair into a QB evaluating statistical Frankenstein, ANAY/A. It includes nearly everything a QB does, in particular a few things that normal stats don't, and excludes something that the statistical evidence suggests that a QB doesn't really do (YAC).

ANAY/A=(PassingYards - YAC - INTs*45 - SackYards + TDs*10)/(PassAttempts+Sacks)

2008 QB ANAY/A after the jump. Remember the stat is per attempt, not total value. It's the most effiecent QB, not the most productive, and neither of those are certain to be the best QB.

Table by Mgrex03 because he's awesome like that

QB Yards YAC Air Yards Att INT TD Sack Yds Sacks ANAY/A
Pennington 3653 1546 2107 476 7 19 121 24 3.72
Rivers 4009 1840 2169 478 11 34 151 25 3.70
Ryan 3440 1404 2036 434 11 16 104 17 3.54
Delhomme 3288 1269 2019 414 12 15 130 20 3.45
Manning P 4002 1627 2375 555 14 27 124 21 3.28
Brees 5069 2398 2671 635 17 34 92 13 3.32
Rodgers 4038 1652 2386 536 13 28 231 34 3.25
Cutler 4526 1881 2645 616 18 25 69 11 3.22
Manning E 3238 1220 2018 479 10 21 174 27 3.17
Garcia 2712 1248 1464 376 6 12 100 23 3.04
Warner 4583 2173 2410 598 14 30 182 26 3.04
Romo 3448 1578 1870 450 14 26 123 20 2.93
McNabb 3916 1805 2111 571 11 23 149 23 2.86
Jackson 1056 502 554 149 2 9 97 14 2.80
Schaub 3043 1470 1573 380 10 15 149 23 2.79
Collins 2676 1292 1384 415 7 12 60 8 2.67
Wallace 1532 755 777 242 3 11 76 14 2.64
Hill 2046 895 1151 288 8 13 148 23 2.49
Garrard 3620 1494 2126 535 13 15 288 42 2.43
Edwards 2699 1266 1433 374 10 11 143 23 2.39
Quinn 518 230 288 89 2 2 9 1 2.32
Roethlisberger 3301 1368 1933 469 15 17 284 46 2.22
Thigpen 2608 1101 1507 420 12 18 162 26 2.21
Orlovsky 1616 652 964 255 8 8 95 14 2.19
Campbell 3245 1686 1559 506 6 13 266 38 2.12
Russell 2423 1143 1280 368 8 13 210 31 2.11
Orton 2972 1450 1522 465 12 18 160 27 2.04
Cassel 3693 2116 1577 516 11 21 219 47 1.91
Flacco 2971 1433 1538 428 12 14 276 32 1.87
Anderson 1615 724 891 283 8 9 87 14 1.80
Rosenfels 1431 664 767 174 10 6 58 9 1.74
Bulger 2720 1336 1384 440 13 11 263 38 1.35
Fitzpatrick 1905 848 1057 372 9 8 193 38 1.31
Griese 1073 488 585 184 7 5 69 9 1.30
Favre 3472 1779 1693 522 22 22 213 30 1.29
Frerotte 2157 1023 1134 301 15 12 164 29 1.26
Palmer 731 358 373 129 4 3 67 11 1.11
Hasselbeck 1216 451 765 209 10 5 119 19 1.08
O'Sullivan 1678 887 791 220 11 8 197 32 0.71
Losman 584 294 290 104 5 2 119 15 -0.29
AVERAGE


2.49
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