QB overrate index (well, almost)

by Cow of Pain on Mar 17, 2009 12:22 PM EDT Comment 9 comments

Inspired by shake n bake's look at ANAY/A as a measure of actual QB efficiency, I decided it would be interesting to look at something in the opposite end of the spectrum, namely how much of a QB's production is due to YAC production by the recievers, rather than the QB's own throwing ability.

The result can, in a way, be viewed as a measure of how overrated a QB is. If a large amount of the production is due to YAC, rather than air yards, the QB will most likely look better than he actually is. However some systems are heavy on short passes and YAC production, whereas others are more vertical, and so this should not be considered the final say.

In the table below I have YAC, total yards (TY), the quotient, and percentage above average (PAA) for this quotient. So if someone (say, Matt Cassel...) has a PAA of 25, that means the part of his TY accounted for by YAC is more than one fourth more than what could be expected from an average passing offence.

QB	YAC	TY	YAC/TY	PAA
Cassel	2116	3693	0,57	25,5
O'Sullivan	887	1678	0,53	15,8
Campbell	1686	3245	0,52	13,8
Favre	1779	3472	0,51	12,2
Losman	294	584	0,5	10,3
Wallace	755	1532	0,49	8
Bulger	1336	2720	0,49	7,6
Palmer	358	731	0,49	7,3
Orton	1450	2972	0,49	6,9
Collins	1292	2676	0,48	5,8
Schaub	1470	3043	0,48	5,8
Flacco	1433	2971	0,48	5,7
Jackson	502	1056	0,48	4,1
Frerotte	1023	2157	0,47	3,9
Warner	2173	4583	0,47	3,9
Brees	2398	5069	0,47	3,6
Russell	1143	2423	0,47	3,3
Edwards	1266	2699	0,47	2,7
Rosenfels	664	1431	0,46	1,6
McNabb	1805	3916	0,46	1
Garcia	1248	2712	0,46	0,8
Rivers	1840	4009	0,46	0,5
Romo	1578	3448	0,46	0,3
Griese	488	1073	0,45	-0,4
Anderson	724	1615	0,45	-1,8
Fitzpatrick	848	1905	0,45	-2,5
Quinn	230	518	0,44	-2,7
Hill	895	2046	0,44	-4,2
Pennington	1546	3653	0,42	-7,3
Thigpen	1101	2608	0,42	-7,5
Cutler	1881	4526	0,42	-9
Roethlisberger	1368	3301	0,41	-9,2
Garrard	1494	3620	0,41	-9,6
Ryan	1404	3440	0,41	-10,6
Manning, P	1627	4002	0,41	-10,9
Rodgers	1652	4083	0,4	-11,4
Orlovsky	652	1616	0,4	-11,6
Delhomme	1269	3288	0,39	-15,5
Manning, E	1220	3238	0,38	-17,5
Hasselbeck	451	1216	0,37	-18,8

The conclusion seems to be that Matt Cassel indeed - as most of us probably expected - is way overrated, while Manning (choose one) is actually a better QB than his stats claim. Oh, and the Seahawks had no WR's worth anything.

Now as I suggested, it could easily be claimed that Cassel plays in a system heavy on the YAC, and that this is the only reason his YAC/TY is so high. However the system is the same system in which Tom Brady last year had a YAC/TY quotient of .42, which would have placed him in the bottom third this year.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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Comments

I hate the term overrated

but that’s because it’s (almost) never defined. If there’s reference to what specifically is doing the rating in the first place then I’m all for underrated/overrated.

They ball when they can and I'm ballin' by nature
Addicted to the game like Jordan and Peyton
-Lil Wayne "Fireman"

by shake n bake on Mar 17, 2009 12:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

interesting but not a complete picture

A good QB makes the best use out of the situation he’s in and receivers he has. Matt Cassel had Wes Welker, a beast at YAC production, and he used him as well as Brady did in 2007, almost to the yard. Brady was able to make better use of Randy Moss than Cassel was, but that might stat might have improved some in Cassel’s second year as starter – we’ll never know.

I just think these stats are limited for QBs, because they can only work with their own offense. To downplay Cassel because he had Welker at his disposal and used him well doesn’t quite seem right. Then what about factoring in the offensive lines for each QB, dropped passes that were right on the money (for which there aren’t stats kept) and the what-if factor (what if such and such a QB had a top class WR or beast of a RB, then they would have been better) etc…

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Mar 18, 2009 10:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

but it doesn't take a great QB to throw dumpoffs to Welker

it’s downplaying him because a lot of the passes he made don’t show a lot of QB skill.

They ball when they can and I'm ballin' by nature
Addicted to the game like Jordan and Peyton
-Lil Wayne "Fireman"

by shake n bake on Mar 18, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hear ya, that's why I used the word "good" instead of "great"

Not every QB has the chance to showcase like that – excel without quality receivers, and will wring the life out of a good slot receiver if they have one. That’s why it will be pretty interesting to see how Cassel does in Kansas City this year – different receivers, different O-line, different coach, no Welker. One thing I know is that the guy worked his tail off in New England to learn and improve from one game to the next and will give it everything he’s got. Whether that will be good enough remains to be seen.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Mar 18, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and he did improve as the year went on.

that’s the only reason I’m not running around declaring he’ll bust.

They ball when they can and I'm ballin' by nature
Addicted to the game like Jordan and Peyton
-Lil Wayne "Fireman"

by shake n bake on Mar 18, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know

And I believe Cassel can actually be a quite good QB on his own. But his stats from last season are making him somewhat overrated, still. That is in the sense that they appear to boost his impact.

by Cow of Pain on Mar 19, 2009 4:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Favre

Does it strike anyone else as interesting that Favre shows up high here and he also had a lot of YAC production during his years at GB? Those were two very different offenses with completely different personnel yet the QB had the same “YAC Effect” in both systems. Rogers meanwhile had a negative YAC effect with basically the same offense that Favre had the year before. What was the YAC ratio of Pennington (and backups) for the NYJs in previous years to Favre? It could lead to some interesting speculation about QBs having more impact over YAC then might otherwise be assumed.

For instance YAC is greatly assisted when receivers are hit in full stride, as opposed to being passed to while “stationary”. Perhaps a QB who is better at throwing accurately to receivers on the move helps to generate more YAC?

by Rob-Westside on Mar 18, 2009 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it might also be what kind of passes a QB prefers rather than their ability

a big part of YAC production is how often QBs dink, dunk and dumpoff passes.

Pennington had a even lower % of YAC in 07. The Pennington-Favre thing kind of goes against the accuracy idea for QB’s being responsible for YAC. Pennington is about a accurate as it gets, but has had low YAC% all of the last 3 years.

They ball when they can and I'm ballin' by nature
Addicted to the game like Jordan and Peyton
-Lil Wayne "Fireman"

by shake n bake on Mar 18, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

YAC and QB

I’d highly recommend the article http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/08/who-gets-credit-for-yac-follow-up.html – the conclusion (based on fairly solid statistics) is that YAC production relies more on (has a higher correlation) the recievers than the QB. This means that a QB who has a high YAC/TY ratio most likely (since we are talking correlations, it gets a little fuzzy) have inflated stats.

But then of course there are someone like Favre who appears to be succesfully creating high YAC production in new offences (last year Pennington had a YAC/TY ratio of .38, while Clemmens had .46 – Favre last year had .52).

by Cow of Pain on Mar 19, 2009 3:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs