With the first pick of the 2009 draft...

by coltsfanawalt on Mar 24, 2009 12:02 AM EDT

The Detroit Lions select.....

Well, let me explain my decision first. The possible choices are QB Matt Stafford, OT Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe, LB Aaron Curry, or DT BJ Raji. There are other scenarios that are worth consideration, like trading out of the number one pick. A strong possibility is a three way trade with Cleveland and Denver that will send Quinn and the number five pick to Denver, the number one pick to Cleveland, and Cutler and the number twelve pick to Detroit. Or some variation that gets Cutler to Detroit and sends away the number one pick.

Anyhow, I believe there is a very likely scenario that Detroit will not pick first. They are doing very interesting things publicly that make me suspect they are trying to spook someone below them to trade up and secure their guy. That may or may not work, but I still suspect that somehow Detroit will not pick first in actuality.

There are drawbacks to every possible first choice. Matt Stafford is the top choice in the weakest class of QBs in a while. They drafted Drew Stanton 43rd overall in '07, and I think they would be better off building other areas this season while trying out 2nd rounder Stanton, then drafting QB next year if he doesn't work out.

Next, OT is a big need and a good possibility. However, the Lions pick again at #20, and this is a deep class at this position. There is much debate over who is the top player at this position. Rather than gambling on that choice, the wise thing would be to draft the top guy later in the opening round. There will be a good option there.

Now to Curry. He is the best defensive player in the draft, and he is the most popular choice of the Lions fanbase. That should make him a slam dunk, but I only hesitate because they traded for Julian Peterson already. Along with Sims, this would give them three outstanding LBs, and there are other needs.

Raji. This seems like a slight reach. However, the struggling defense could use a great DT. Additionally, the Lions traded away Cory Redding in the trade for Peterson, so there is a great need there. But is Raji a number one overall?

Crabtree will never happen on the heels of the Millen era. This brings me to the conclusion that the Lions desperately need out of this slot. I believe that a Cutler deal is an excellent scenario for them.

So what do I choose? Well if I am forced to choose at number one, I am going with my favorite player at the top of the draft.......

AARON CURRY

The fans who follow them closely want this as well, and some draft experts agree. I just think that Stafford is too expensive for the risk. Give Stanton a whirl for a year. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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Oh, and

I think that after the debacle that was Matt Millen, the Lions will stay away from “skill” positions in the first round of this draft, like Stafford or Crabtree. Then again, they are the Lions, so who knows….

If I wouldn’t have selected Curry, then it would be Raji. In fact, I’m already wishing I’d done that. Is it too late to change the pick? Oh, never mind. Curry it is, the best player. Wait. Aargh!

by coltsfanawalt on Mar 24, 2009 12:17 AM EDT reply actions

Just Curious

Do you think if they hadn’t had their history of poor decision making with skill position players, people would be more comfortable with them going with Stafford? Cause it seems like a lot of people don’t want them to pick QB at #1 for this very reason (granted there are a myriad of others brought up but this one to me seems to be one that everyone mentions)

I like the Aaron Curry pick, if they can pick up another solid OT later, and still lose enough to get an early pick next year for Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, TIm Tebow, or sign a solid FA QB.

Personally i wouldn’t mind if Stafford started his carreer somewhere else besides the black hole that is the Lions.

Do you not know that those who run in a race all run, but only one receives the prize? Run in such a way that you may win.

I Corinthians 9:24

by Southern Dawg on Mar 24, 2009 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I do think that is a big part of it.

Many of the Lions fans that I have listened to and communicated with don’t want Stafford #1. To debate the Curry pick is fine, but Stafford is even less desired by the fan base as a whole, though they will embrace him if the team drafts him anyway.

You are right about the hesitation in part. The Lions have drafted “skill” positions players in the first round many times under Matt Millen, and it hasn’t worked out well. Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, Joey Harrington. The better ones, like Kevin Jones and Roy Williams, are no longer with the team. They are down to Calvin Johnson to show for their troubles.

It appears that many are hoping to see the organization finally start to address the line on both sides and the defense in general. I really wish I’d had the courage to grab Raji there in my mock pick, but that would’ve been even less well received. On the Lions site, Curry has been th favorite choice according to the poll and many comments, but less popular amongst the Colts fans here. I wonder about its likeliness since the Peterson trade, but the best player available mentality boosts Curry as one of the top two players and as the best defender, hands down.

They may feel forced to take Stafford, but I think it’s obvious that they’ll try to get out of it first. Remember, apart from the risk that goes with any player, he is also the most expensive choice.

by coltsfanawalt on Mar 24, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Another thought against drafting QB first

To everyone who says that it is the obvious choice based on need (the Lions have more needs than they can draft), I would encourage a close look at the success of that decision over the past ten plus years. I will go back far enough to include Peyton in the argument FOR drafting a QB first. Other than the Manning Brothers, who have both thrown for super bowl winning teams, what are the other names? And how have they worked out?

Tim Couch – Bust. David Carr – Bust. Carson Palmer – Pretty Good. Jamarcus Russell- Not so much. Michael Vick – Trouble. Alex Smith – Bust. (We won’t mention #2 overall Ryan Leaf or #3 Joey Harrington.) There have been good first round choices like Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers, and bad ones like Matt Lienart and Vince Young. But on #1 overall, not very great unless you are named Manning.

The best first picks (besides Mannings) during this time have been DE Mario Williams and OT Jake Long (early call there). Positions other than QB. I think that Curry, J Smith or Raji are the only great choice if the Lions stay stuck at #1. I know you probably like Stafford a lot judging from your profile, but he honestly has more question marks than many of the busts listed above did. He may be great in the NFL, it is always hard to tell, but it is a very expensive risk for the franchise.

Having said all of that, they may well take Stafford.

by coltsfanawalt on Mar 24, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not arguing for Stafford to go #1

Like i said in the previous post, i’d rather see him somewhere else, honestly i believe that the primary reason he wants to go #1 so much and always talks about not being afraid of going to the Lions is that he wants that fat #1 pick contract, (i’m sure he also is trying to be professional and doesn’t want to offend Detroit if they take him by saying he doesn’t want to go there, like Eli did to the Chargers)

I agree Picking QB this high is a high risk and high reward type of thing with the percentages telling you its a very high risk, and at the same time it can turn around your franchise. And with the history of the Lions, i can see why the new regime would decide to finally play it a little safer.

My opinion of Stafford is much more sober than most uga fans and NFL scouts. I don’t think he’ll be the next Peyton Manning and i doubt (but wouldn’t be surprised by) him having the early success of Matt Ryan or Ben Rothlesberger. I think he would have benefited greatly by staying an extra year, he improved noticeably each year from starting half of his freshman year, to his decent sophomore and a solid Junior year. A final Senior year would have completed his maturity process and polished up some of the question marks against him (decision making i think being the biggest one) But i can’t blame him for leaving. I know people are tired of hearing this, but physically he’s the most prepared NFL QB to ever come into the draft (and this is where many people become blind to some of his faults)

I do not think he should start the first game of the season wherever he ends up. Yet i would feed him as much experience as i could to prepare him. Plenty of pre-season and bits of the regular season when its appropriate. I know Matt is competitive, and holding back the starting job from him initially i think will go a long way to motivating him to polish his game, compete his hardest, and truly prove that he is the best franchise QB in 2009 that Mel Kiper banks his hairpiece on.

I love the Aaron Curry pick for reasons i stated previous. So where should Stafford end up? The Cutler situation also got me thinking some trade of Cutler to the Lions and Denver then picking up Stafford might work well. Denver would then be trading a proven First Round QB for a more expensive unproven First Round QB (albeit with tons of potential). I think the only way this scenario gets done is if the situation gets worse and its absolutely unrepairable. So maybe not there. OK then what team will he fall to. Seahawks might be the best situation for him, to sit behind Hasselbeck (sp?) for a bit, learning and proving he can do the job. I don’t like him in San Fran, or New York. Chicago i think would be so-so, but unlikely he ends up there.

Didn’t really mean to turn this into a long thread about Stafford, but he is in the equation for what Detroit does. The question is not really why would they pick Aaron Curry or Jason Smith, but why Detroit should or should not pick Matthew Stafford.

Do you not know that those who run in a race all run, but only one receives the prize? Run in such a way that you may win.

I Corinthians 9:24

by Southern Dawg on Mar 25, 2009 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions

You have a good understanding of Stafford.

Everyone is looking for that franchise QB, it is always a gamble, but it transforms a team. The Falcons seem to be last year’s winner at this search. High draft picks often don’t work out as hoped, and then there are your late draft, Tom Brady stories. It takes a lot more than the right QB though. Peyton Manning would struggle behind the line of some teams.

The Lions have been famous for drafting and blaming their QBs and RBs for their woes. I spent my teen years in central Michigan, and it was a regular and tired debate. The Lions needed to get a line to protect the backfield rather than constantly changing the backfield. Even Barry Sanders would take as many four yard losses as big gains. Some fans even disliked him for this, as well as every back since, but the problem is the line.

Why do some teams like Denver make any scrub RB look great? Good linemen and good coaching. Detroit has let first rounder Kevin Jones go in recent seasons, yet I think that better drafting and coaching in the trenches is what they have really needed. The same is true with their carousel of QBs. Why not Stanton? What was so bad about Orlovsky? And on and on…

For the sake of Detroit, who has bigger needs, and the sake of Stafford, who needs good protection, I hope he does not go #1. The problem with drafting for Detroit is that they need one of everything. If a QB slides, they might oughta consider it. However, if they can’t deal out of #1, Curry is arguably the best athlete.

By the way, I love your signature line.

by coltsfanawalt on Mar 25, 2009 6:08 AM EDT up reply actions