Colts Draft Board by Shake

by shake n bake on Mar 30, 2009 10:07 PM EDT

When you have to wait 26 picks to make your first pick of the draft, it's hard to sort out all the possible scenarios. A draft board is the best way to collect my thoughts on a pick this far back in the draft.

I'm going to cheat a little and only rank RBs, WRs, OTs, DTs, LBs and CBs. If a player at another position drops far enough I'm sure Indy would grab the value, but it's a safe bet that Indy's 1st round pick will come at one of those six positions

Jump for the draft board that would be hanging in the war room if Indy had the misfortune of me GMing.

Tier 1:				Consensus Top 5'ers
#	Prospect	Position	College	Comments
1	Aaron Curry	OLB	Wake Forest	A top prospect coming out of the season who lit it up in workouts.
2	Jason Smith	OT	Baylor	Top of a loaded Tackle Class
3	Eugene Monroe	OT	Virgina	Virgina just keeps churning out elite LT prospects
4	Micheal Crabtree	WR	Texas Tech	Do you really need a 40 time for a player that showed that much ability on the field?
Tier 2:				Elite Prospects
5	Malcolm Jenkins	CB	Ohio State	Jenkins' stock suffered from a slow 40, but guess who loves talented CB's without elite speed?
6	B.J. Raji	DT	Boston College	Massive, but still quick and disruptive.
7	Micheal Oher	OT	Mississippi	All the tools, but inconsistent. Slide Ugoh to RT and have the complete set.
8	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Missouri	Has to adjust to a NFL style offense, but seems the best equipped of the top WRs to do so with the only Wonderlic score over 15 of the 1st round WRs (25)
9	Rey Maualuga	LB	USC	Athletic run stopper. Not a guy in the Colts' mold, but he wouldn't not fit.
Tier 3:	I WANT HIM!	I WANT HIM!	I WANT HIM!	(and might get him)
10	Peria Jerry	DT	Mississippi	I know Ziggy has gained a lot of converts, but Jerry is still the player I'm hoping for.
11	Evander "Ziggy" Hood	DT	Missouri	Doesn't have Jerry's burst, but is significantly younger and could add weight, which Jerry likely can't
12	Hakeem Nicks	WR	UNC	The weight bounce between the Combine and Pro Day is concerning, but he's reportedly cut most of it already.
13	Eben Britton	OT	Arizona	The first OT who could realistically drop to Indy.
14	Knowshon Moreno	RB	Georgia	Only first round back who can block, catch AND hold on to the football
Tier 4:				Talented Character Risks
15	Vontae Davis	CB	Illinois	Played in a cover 2, but has man coverage athleticism. Physical, hard hitter. Commitment and heart have been questioned.
16	Andre Smith	OT	Alabama	A mauling run blocker, who may or may not be quick enough to stay at LT. Weight and maturity issues. Has breasts.
Tier 5:				Great Player, Poor Fit
17	Brian Cushing	LB	USC	A pass rusher and run stopper who was often pulled off the field when coverage was needed.
18	Percy Harvin	WR	Florida	Colts WRs are accomplished route runners. Harvin is an athlete that needs to learn to run NFL routes.
19	Darius Heyward-Bey	WR	Maryland	Bey shot up the boards with a blazing 40, but he's not a good route runner.
20	LeSean "Shady" McCoy	RB	Pittsburgh	An excellent receiving back, talented and productive runner. Fumbling issues put him outside the Colts RB profile.
21	Sean Smith	CB/FS	Utah	Big, physical DB who seems to have the athleticism to CB in the Pros. Unfortunately he's a great man CB, who has struggled in zone.
22	Chris Wells	RB	OSU	Backs that can't block or catch don't have a place in Indy no matter how good they are at the other stuff.
Tier 6:				Consolation Prizes
23	Kenny Britt	WR	Rutgers	More potential than Nicks, but a less polished receiver. Nick's weight questions have closed up some of the risk gap between the two.
24	Phil Loadholt	RT	Oklahoma	Might not be quick enough to pass protect even moving to the right side, but he's a dominating run blocker who was a college LT.
25	Duke Robinson	G/RT	Oklahoma	Indy has a good number of guards, but Lilja is a question mark, Pollak isn't guaranteed to work out and Duke might be able to play RT.
26	James Laurinaitis	LB	OSU	Limited ceiling, may not be athletic enough, Indy hasn't drafted LBs early since the Tampa-2 was installed.
27	Alphonso Smith	CB	Wake Forrest	Good Zone corner, scouting reports eerily Tim Jennings-esque
28	Darius Butler	CB	UConn	Another zone CB, bigger than Smith, but less athletic.
29	William Beatty	OT	UConn	Some places put him at the back of the 1st OT tier, others have him as the start of the next step down.
30	D.J. Moore	CB	Vanderbilt	More zone CBs

Remember I excluded all QBs, TEs, OGs, OCs, DEs and Safeties. Even without all those players (who are 10 of Mocking Dan's top 32) I managed to come up with 30 players who I would be somewhere between ecstatic and understanding of as Indy's first round pick.

The floor is now open for criticisms.

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Comments

Looks good

As much fun as it’s been to look at the million mock drafts out there, this feels more interesting to me, maybe just b/c it’s more Colts centered.

and +1 for the breasts comment

"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."

by psvirsky on Mar 30, 2009 10:39 PM EDT reply actions

not going to lie

after writing that comment, getting it up onto the site was a motivating factor to keep me working on this post (worked on it for chunks of the last 4 days).

I got Summer hatin' on me cuz I'm hotter than the sun. Spring hatin' on me cuz I ain't never sprung
Winter hatin' on me cuz I'm colder than Y'all. And I will never, I will never, I will never Fall.
-Lil Wayne, Mr. Carter

by shake n bake on Mar 30, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree with psvirsky

This is a much more interesting way to look at it… quick snapshots, tiered structure, and I’ll also give a +1 for the breasts comment.

by LovinBlue on Mar 30, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I only support Hood to the Colts

On the grounds that Jerry won’t be available. We’ll see on draft day, y’know?

by Marik on Mar 30, 2009 10:44 PM EDT reply actions

Anyone in Tier 3

has my full support, if we have to go to tier 6, I’d rather trade down…

by GoHorse88 on Mar 30, 2009 10:55 PM EDT reply actions

call me crazy

but i would be perfectly happy with laurinitis. brackett isn’t getting any younger…

by saintnixon on Mar 30, 2009 11:12 PM EDT reply actions

some days I like him, some days I don't think he fits.

by shake n bake on Mar 30, 2009 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions

call you crazy???

what are you talking about? I would love him too. You know, before signing Seward i really thought he had a real chance to play for the colts next season but now, i just dont see it happening. Of course i would also like Maualuga, specially since some mocks gave me some hope, as he fell to 26th with the ravens, however, i have to be realistic and admit that simply wont happen.
I would pick a LB, either Laurinaitis or by some miracle Rey, but i believe the Colts are picking either a DT or a WR, depending on who’s still available by then and hopefully, they pick Jennings in the 2nd round.

"We’re only going to score 17 points? haha OK" - Tom Brady

by BlueMark1821 on Mar 30, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions

This is more interesting

If there were ever to be a good draft pool, it would have to be something like this, in which each player were listed according to his value to the Colts, and only every player you listed above the guy the Colts actually take were already off the board would it be counted a success. I think Raji should be a top 5 guy though, since plugging Raji in at DT would arguably be a dramatic upgrade among the starters than Crabtree at WR. But maybe that’s the way you wanted this to be taken. I really like the draft board idea though. Good work.

by CooperManningsNotTrying on Mar 31, 2009 12:32 AM EDT reply actions

missed some words

*if every player
*not how you wanted

by CooperManningsNotTrying on Mar 31, 2009 12:35 AM EDT reply actions

Percy

Looks like he’s running pretty good routes here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34—XTjboDI

3rd down back, slot receiver, and kick returner is a poor fit? That’s news to me. I just think it’s a little subjective that you put Maclin in Elite prospects when he’s knocked for the exact same thing. Not to mention Harvin’s faster, the same height, has a 2" higher vertical, and 1 more inch on his broad jump.

If you wanted to place him down there due to injury, that’s fine. But if injury history wasn’t a factor, he’d have no chance at being around by our pick. I don’t have an obsession with him like some people do with certain people, and I understand it’s your opinion, but 1300 yards and 17 TDs (10 rushing) is pretty impressive considering he missed time.

And are you seriously ranking Loadholt in front of Beatty? I’d put Gilbert ahead of Loadholt.

Jim Sorgi runs a 4.6 40. That's all I've got to say about that.

by monstersbox on Mar 31, 2009 8:37 AM EDT reply actions

Harvin

actually never returned a kick or punt at Florida so it’s no guarantee he can do it in the pros.

Maclin is universally higher rated and at least was a full time WR in a spread O. I could have put him into the poor fits, but I think he’s good enough that it could be overlooked and that is doesn’t really matter since he’s not falling anywhere near Indy.

Why would Indy need another 3rd down back. Addai is an elite blocker (Harvin is far from it) and a very good receiver. Even the most hardcore Addai haters, would readily admit he’s a fantastic “3rd down back”.

Beatty over Loadholt is the common opinion and if re-doing this I would probably move Beatty up some more since Mocking Dan is more down on him that just about everyone.

by shake n bake on Mar 31, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

I’m just saying you rate a guy as “elite” and one guy as “poor fit” although they’re scouted pretty close to exactly the same in regards to route running. And yeah, it does matter how you rate them. Isn’t that the point? It doesn’t matter if he falls close to us or not, if he’s a poor fit he’s a poor fit. That doesn’t make any sense. Cushing is an “elite” pick but I’d put him in “poor fit” even though he won’t be close to our pick. And the only reason Maclin is rated over Harvin (which isn’t universal, but more common) is due to the injury history. That’s it. That’s why I said if you want to put him in poor fit due to injury that makes sense. But like I said, rating one elite and one poor fit, although mentioning their weakness as being exactly the same, is subjective. And that’s not how ranking prospects works for scouts or GMs.

And if you want to go on pure athletic ability, Harvin takes Maclin. Maclin was considered the taller, faster of the two. Well he’s not taller, and he’s not faster. And Harvin can run the ball like a RB. Not an end around guy, he runs up the middle with a good deal of power. And even if he’s never returned a kick, I think he could pick that up pretty easily. He returned punts (4 TDs) in highschool. And I’m sure he would have if Brandon James wasn’t on the team as well.

But this isn’t about who’s better, I’m just pointing out that you’re listing one as elite and one as a poor fit. That’s not consistent. Consistency shows objectivity. If route running is high enough on your priorities to list Harvin under poor fit, same should apply for Maclin.

And Beatty has been tearing it up recently. No offense to Dan, but he’s not the end all be all of talent evaluation. I’d listen to Gil Brandt if I were you. Gil is by far the best talent evaluator. Pat Kirwin is decent at evaluation, I’m not a huge fan of his mocks, but at least his explanations make sense.

And a 3rd down back would

Jim Sorgi runs a 4.6 40. That's all I've got to say about that.

by monstersbox on Mar 31, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think Dan is the end all be all

no one but Polian is (and he doesn’t share). But he’s made enough sense over all the stuff of his I’d read to trust his judgment a good deal.

by shake n bake on Mar 31, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Educated readers

And people that go to every event and see the players in person and have been doing it for longer than I’ve been alive are in two seperate categories.

Jim Sorgi runs a 4.6 40. That's all I've got to say about that.

by monstersbox on Mar 31, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Loadholt is overrated. I don’t like him.

This line will remain in my signature until the Colts draft Rashad Jennings in 2009.
Oh and I write words and stuff for Stampede Blue.

by KingRichard on Mar 31, 2009 2:50 PM EDT reply actions

K...

I am assuming you are familiar with him, have your reasons for the sentiment. Care to educate us, I’m not an OLine guru when it comes to draft analysis. Maybe you are. Whatcha got?

by bamock on Mar 31, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions