Titles for the Tampa-2?

by shake n bake on Mar 5, 2009 5:18 PM EST

though the Tampa 2 is a productive defense…it doesn’t win SuperBowls with the frequency that is should…… -Peterbones

This comment struck me as "odd" so I started looking into how much Tampa-2 teams won Superbowls, and how often they "should".

The Tampa-2 has it's roots in the Steel Curtain, but we'll start in Tampa. Tony Dungy and Monte Kiffin installed the defense when they took over the Bucs in 1996. The Tampa 2 spread to Indy when Dungy arrived in 2002, came to Chicago in 2004, and arrived in Minnesota, KC, Detriot and Buffalo in 2006.

13 years in Tampa, 7 in Indy, 5 in Chicago, 3 each in Minny, KC, Detroit and Buffalo. 37 seasons of Tampa 2 defense in the NFL. What did those seasons bring.

2 Superbowl Titles, 3 SB appearances, 18 playoff appearances, 18 top 8 scoring Ds, 28 scoring Ds in the top half of the league and only 4 bottom 8 scoring Ds (3 of them belonging to the Lions),

So what number in each of those categories would be expected.

The odds of a title each year would be the number of teams running a Tampa 2 that year out of the total teams, add that up for each year and it should give the "expected titles" if the Tampa-2 was an exactly average defensive scheme.

1/31+1/31+1/31+1/31+1/31+1/31+2/32+2/32+3/32+3/32+7/32+7/32+7/32

For a total of 1.16, So if the Tampa 2 was a totally normal defense that gave no benefit and didn't hurt a team, over the last 13 years it would be expected to have about one title. Two Tampa2 teams have titles, so actually the T2 has won superbowls with a bit more frequency than would be expected ("than it should").

But that's small sample size. A superbowl takes a whole lot of luck and for things to click at just the right time. Let's look at the rest. Checking on SB appearences is easy enough, there are twice as many appearences available as victories, so the expected SB appearences is just double the expected titles, 2.32 compared to the actual of 3. Again the Tampa 2 outperforms what would be expected from random chance.

There are 12 playoff spots available to one title so the expected number of playoff appearances, is 12 times the expected titles. 1.16*12=13.9, so the Tampa 2 teams "should have" made the playoffs about 14 times. They made 18 playoff trips.

There are 8 spots available to be a top 8 defense, so the odds of a top 8 defense is 8 times that of a title. 1.16*8=9.3. So 9ish top 8 finishes would be expected for the Tampa 2 defenses. The Bucs alone had 10. The group totaled 18. Just under half of the seasons, the Tampa 2 defenses were in the top quarter of the league.

A Tampa-2 defense would be expected to be in the top half of the league, half of the time. The defenses were in the top half 28 of 37 seasons. Just over 75% of the time.

Teams running Tampa 2 defenses have been more successful than would be expected by chance, and defenses running the scheme have far exceeded what would be expected for a defense that was just as good as everything else out there.

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Comments

Let’s not forget that Super Bowl XLI had two T2 defenses playing against each other.

This line will remain in my signature until the Colts draft Rashad Jennings in 2009.

by KingRichard on Mar 5, 2009 6:15 PM EST reply actions

Urlacher

I can’t get the images of Urlacher trying to make adjustments while Peyton was calling signals at the line out of my head. Pure comedy.

by Stadtfeld on Mar 5, 2009 11:14 PM EST up reply actions

This is really interesting.

Especially with so many teams abandoning the T2 for the upcoming season…

I would be interested to know the number of titles, playoffs for the 3-4 over the period of time since the T2 has been around.

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Mar 5, 2009 6:52 PM EST reply actions

you cant really compare the T2 and the 3-4 as a whole. T2 is more of a niche within the 4-3 (although some base 3-4 teams such as this year’s steelers play some T2 packages). you probably have to make a distinction between the defensive system the pats use, the more zone blitzing oriented lebeau version and even the one the cowboys are using, which requires more pass rush out of the front 3, especially the NT.

by ColtfanIL on Mar 5, 2009 7:24 PM EST up reply actions

The problem with the T-2 is...

the guys are all too small and can’t tackle and it sucks and nobody can possibly win anything with it and they can’t stop the run and it contributes to the high divorce rate and causes cancer and TV announcers don’t know what they’re talking about and my fingers are getting tired from speed-typing and it’s susceptible to mold and mildew and did you see the Jags run for about seven miles on the Colts in 2006 and contact your doctor if side effects appear and strong running teams have their way with the Tampa-2 and leave afterwards and don’t buy breakfast or call the next day.

boo-hoo.

Nice article, research and analysis. Just a guess, but the T-2 seems to be sort of a bend-don’t-break D instead of a “stone wall/we will crush you on every play” type D, and the traditional NFL rankings are based cleverly on yards. So a lot of people look at rankings and form this impresson of a T-2 as porous, weak, “finesse,” etc. Fine with me. I’d rather be underestimated.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Mar 5, 2009 11:53 PM EST reply actions

I think I heard that it also caused the recession

by LovinBlue on Mar 6, 2009 12:46 AM EST up reply actions

Bernie Madoff

Is a big fan of the Tampa 2.

True story.

by eltharion_doa on Mar 7, 2009 6:23 AM EST up reply actions

Madoff

“No Your Honor, it’s like the Tampa 2: I didn’t BREAK the law, I just BENT it.”

Let’s hope the judge goes all Bob Sanders on him.

by ctnyc on Mar 8, 2009 1:03 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

you're right!

and also, apparently, my forgetfulness.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Mar 6, 2009 12:25 PM EST reply actions

I'm honored. Typo and all....But....

I suppose I could do a quick analysis of the past 25 SB champs and see what sort of D they run. I don’t always need to have all of my info spoon fed to me. My point is that yes we have ahd a lot of success, we have won the division and had high playoff seedings, one of the most productive offenses in history, and byes to rest tstarters because we eraned them….despite all of the remendous advantages these have afforded the Colts…we only have one SB title, and more dissapointments then you can shake a stick at….that is my point for “frequency that it should” comment. My objective here isn’t to get into a semantic argument with the contributing writerm but I think you have proven my point that compared to other defensive systems, it doesn’t deliver super bowls as often as say the (3-4)…

If the Colts were a bublicly traded corp…and all of my years of loyal rooting, merchandise buying and defending Manning could be considered equity investments in that company…I think I would want a declared dividend a little bit more often….esp when thourghout the whole year you think you are going to get something tangible for your investment, and then right at the end….another “Big Blue Choke”….
Please don’t give some bs rationalization either. (like I should be grateful…blah blah) Grateful doesn’t back you up in a So Cal bar, when your team loses (again) to a loser….it’s win or lose….period.

We are on the same team here, and I have been down for the Colts seince day one…but an era is over.. and I think its time to take a good long, skeptical look…at the Blue Horseshoe…..(who rule..)

by peterbones on Mar 6, 2009 2:30 PM EST reply actions

Just think of the investments

fans of teams like the Browns, the Bengals and the Lions have made, and compare their dividends to what we get…yes, I’m pulling the grateful card.

I know the feeling. Losing to SD is the worst…cause we live here. But chill, we got the Pats off our backs, the Chargers are next….I boldly predict we will beat them in the playoffs next season. And when we do, I will tell you “I told you so..” that is one of my favorite things to say… =)

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Mar 6, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions