Time to end this once and for all

But I don’t think they care what they need, either. There isn’t any position at which the Colts are so stacked that another player there wouldn’t contribute anything ever. A player chosen at a non-need position like WR, maybe, might not make a contribution in his first two years, but that’s normal for the Colts. It makes sense to me that a team can’t get ahead or stay ahead by taking inferior players at need positions. That’s short-term thinking. You have to keep taking the best player unless you’re actually running out of players at a position or having to cut great players to make room for newcomers to sit on the bench—in other words, until the short-term becomes desperate. This is the only interpretation of the “need line crossing the talent line” that is coherent in my opinion.

I can’t pretend like I know who the great players really are without an expert telling me, but Nicks looks pretty good, and Polian said he likes him. That’s why I don’t think it’s stupid to suggest drafting him. If a DT like Jerry is the best available then I think they’ll pick him, but not because they need a DT. If he were a huge, dominant NT I might like that pick more, but then he probably wouldn’t be available.

is explained in a story posted on Colts.com this morning. He describes the drafting philosophy as where the “need axis” meets the “talent access,” which is just a fancy way of saying BPA based on needs.

I’m not saying this is justification for Nicks (or even my heartthrob, Zack Follett) specifically, but if by 27 (or 61, or 92) this is the guy who’s available, and he is on this mythical graph, then that’s what Polian would do. In other words, it all comes down to how Polian values the player.

Please note that what I’m NOT saying is that I believe a WR is the Colts’ greatest need, or Nicks is the talent needed. I personally do not know. But I have this feeling someone will respond to my comment discrediting my understanding of what this team needs and whether we need it now. I was simply trying to be PURE in my response to you of why Polian might do it.

I don’t think anyone knows who Polian will draft. We don’t even know who the Colts want. Can’t we cool down on the draft talk and just see what happens? Maybe BJ Raji falls to us at 27? Maybe Polian takes a QB. Maybe he takes a WR. Maybe he takes a linebacker. NO ONE KNOWS.

So Bill Polian just said what I have been saying… that BPA is based on talent AND need. I guess that mean I f’ing rule!

Hall 5th round…..0 TD
Garcon 6th round….0TD
Giguere FA -PS-0TD
Smith FA—-0TD
Reggie 1st round 53 TD
Gonzo 1st round 7 TD
Stats speak…Only Hall and Garcon has playing time…..what if Reggie or Gonzo get hurt….a 5th and 6th rounder become Peyton’s go to guys…….I would rather have another 1st rounder that has real skills like 1st rounders Reggie and Gonzo. Our running game sucks lemons….we need a third wr from a 1st round to keep Peyton weapons grade A.

I don’t think we need a WR in the early rounds this year, I agree with the logic and rationale behind those who feel that we’re set at WR right now and have other positions we should focus on. However, I do not feel that ruling out a WR as a potential first or second round selection is realistic because if Polian feels there is a prospect available with one of those picks who he really wants, he’ll probably take them. He does not intentionally pass up on weapons for the offense just because there are needs elsewhere and subscribes from a philosophy that many of the positions on defense in our system don’t require first round selections in order for our defense to be effective.

That said, it is my opinion, based on the research I’ve done on players, that there will be players on the defensive side of the ball who will bring a high enough value that the intersection with the need line will be higher than the value of a WR that might drop to us in the 1st and probably 2nd Rounds at the WR need line. Will Billy P see it that way? Your guess is as good as mine. Would he be an “idiot” if we select at WR… I wouldn’t go that far and I’d watch out… the guy he gets will likely be special if he’s not in one of our three or so biggest need positions.

and the 3 WR, Clark at TE sets that Indy’s been using on 3rd downs and in the 2 minute drill since they drafted Gonzo is a big part of why they they’ve been the best in the league on 3rd downs, and why they can move the ball very effectively in limited time.

If a WR is the best, most talented on their board at #27 they should take him.

Ok, so there are two levels in the Top 50 players

And pick #27 falls into that "very good" category. I’ll go along with that.

I wouldn’t put any Interior Lineman in the top 20, as I wouldn’t put any WR outside of Crabtree and maybe Macklin in there. Clearly Mack and Robinson, at a minimum are in the next group, as are about 4-5 WRs, a group which includes Nicks. So talent wise, we have Mack, Robinson (I know we aren’t talking about him), and a group of WRs all at roughly the same level.

What I think some people, including myself, are taking issue with is that you are extremely adamant that the Colts need to let the young WRs who haven’t played show what they can do before bypassing them with a 1st round pick, yet saying that the young interior OL shouldn’t get the same opportunity.

It was clear last year that Polian wants to have players on the OL who can play multiple positions, which I (and I think you) agree with. Flexibility is great. The interior of the line has 3 spots, which we have 6 guys currently for those spots. You are right that the Colts should not count on Lilja being 100%, but

Charlie Johnson who shouldn’t be on the team anymore

may be your opinion, but I don’t think it is shared by most here. He definitely should not be playing tackle, but was fine at Guard. Saturday is obviously set, and Pollak was a pick in this same talent pool last year, so I really don’t think Polian is ready to show him the door already. So 2/3 are set, with Johnson (or maybe Lilja) as a decent option at the 3rd.

I’d say there are 2.5 spots at WR, as Clark should be the slot receiver about half the time. Beyond Wayne and Gonzo, I don’t see anyone who is relatively better at WR than Johnson (or healthy Lilja) at OG. That’s definitely less depth than the Cardinals have at WR (3 guys over 77 catches, plus another with 34 catches, and another that was a 3rd round pick last year), yet you have them taking a WR with their first pick. What is the difference?

I’d put Interior Lineman about the same need level as WR, with maybe IL being higher than WR, but not by much. I think the situations are very similar, as do many people here. Would Mack be a bad pick at 27? I don’t think so. Would Nicks, or some other WR be a bad pick at 27? I don’t think so. I don’t think you go wrong in either direction. I also wouldn’t rank these positions as highly as DT or OT, which I think you also agree with.

Reasonable arguments can be made that WR and Interior Lineman are at about the same level need-wise for the Colts, and the situations are very similar in terms of depth and experience.

By that I mean we tend to put OLs out there early as needed (maybe it’s just that we’ve had more retirements/injuries there) but WRs are brought along relatively slowly in our system.

I’d view a WR pick as someone who adds value that we need to some extent, but his real contributions would still be a few years away—closer to the closing of 18’s window. The flip-side is that a top OL might well be starting 16 games this year or next. And as we saw last year, keeping 18 vertical, clean, and in one piece is at least as important as having a good WR to catch his passes.

If in the past the draft has been somewhat about maximizing our chances of winning by giving Manning the best tools to work with, shouldn’t that take on a slightly new cast as he ages—the best tools to win with for the next 2-3 years? (with anything beyond that being “gravy.”) They might decide that keeping 18 whole is a better strategy than giving him a lot of cool fast gizmos to play with. Last year’s draft tended that way.

mgrex, I like your comments above and generally agree, but notice you didn’t even mention RB, an area a lot of people think we need help early. I am not one of them, but DO think we need to platoon Addai to maximize his productivity. And historically, we tend to rely on them a little more as rookies than WRs. I wonder how Hart is progressing and if Dom’s agent has been talking with Colts mgmt.

Is that Dallas Clark plays the slot in the 3 WR set. The reason we drafted Santi and Tamme was so they could play TE while Clark was in the slot. We could use another WR, but its a HUGE stretch to say we need a 1st round pick on it. There is no way anyone outside of Crabtree would be better than Dallas Clark in the slot for their first year.

Scouts Inc. take: “If history has taught us anything about the Colts’ organization it is that Bill Polian and Co. will use first-round picks to surround Peyton Manning with plenty of skill-position talent. It is a long, illustrious list of first-rounders and that trend could continue once again this year. With Wayne, Gonzalez and Dallas Clark — all former first-rounders — in the fold right now, another wideout might not appear to be as high of a draft priority as defensive tackle, which is a position made up of adequate-at-best starters. But the Colts’ decision-makers understand what has made them so successful throughout the Manning era and probably will continue with that strategy. While defensive tackles like Peria Jerry, Ziggy Hood and Ron Brace will be attractive to Indianapolis, do not be surprised when Britt or Brian Robiskie’s name is taken to the podium for the Colts in Round 1.” — Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc.

the game against the Chargers where Manning threw 6 picks. Both Marvin and Dallas were out leaving us with the likes of Aaron Moorehead and Craphonso Thorpe. We could be seeing that again if Reggie or Gonzo get injured.

The bottom line is that if Polian thinks Garcon and Hall are reliable options then he won’t go WR round one. If he opts to go WR, then we know how the coaching staff feels about both of them.

Was due to the fact that we had no Oline and we also couldn’t run the ball!

You really “aruge” Shake without presenting all the facts. The Colts Oline was banged up some but in the Chargers game we had Jake Scott at LT… we completely ran out of tackles and had to use guards in those spots?

You see what I mean when you argue without presenting the real facts? That you take extreme situations particular to one game and then expand them across 8 plus games?

OLine injuries ALWAYS have more of an affect on offenses than injuries to WR’s. In my opinion WR is one of the most overrated positions in the NFL.

We MAY draft a WR. I think quite a few players would have to be gone before we do, but who knows. I understand arguing about it, but seriously, don’t you think this is getting out of hand? Every other thread is either about Addai or drafting a receiver in the 1st round. Just do a poll. Everyone’s arguing in circles. I like arguing and debating as much as the rest of you, I’m sure that’s obvious. But the horse has been dead for at least a month.

Thats what decides if WR is taken in the first 3 picks IMO. Its possible the Colts trade away a draft pick for a veteran. Roscoe Parrish just as an example. A player who has yet to show their full potential thats a good value, and could step right in at the slot

I don’t intend to outline my arguments in great detail, as they have already been well articulated time and again by others I agree with on here, and dismissed as worthless by those who disagree. So I don’t need to convince the ones who agree, and it has proven futile to convince those already convinced otherwise.

But just for the record on what I think on some recent discussions, and to add a voice of support to those who share my sentiment:

1. While I don’t necessarily want a receiver in the first round, I think that one may be the best choice, depending on who is drafted already. I don’t want to reach for an inferior talent just because we want to address a team need. If anything, trading down in the draft would be the next option. Otherwise, BPA within a broad definition of team needs. As defined by Polian, not by fans.

2. I really have no idea who we should draft or what position we should fill in the first round. Polian usually is thinking ahead to decisions that he will make in the next two years regarding personell, and that factors into our draft needs. Since I don’t know those things or how he truly values certain players in the draft or on the roster, I will be excited about whoever he chooses.

3. I don’t think that Addai is the problem, I think the slew of injuries to the offensive line and the inexperience of three rookie linemen was the problem last year. I think that health and improvement there will solve everything this season. That being said, if Addai struggles this year behind an improved line, it will have to be addressed. And back to point two, if Polian feels it is a concern, we will know so real soon. Like in two weeks.

4. I think that Mike Hart will be a beast for this team, and he may even be able to be the main guy real soon. I think we have a great 1a and 1b already, plus a quality backup in Ball. However, I would not be disapppointed in picking up the right guy at the right draft spot. Polian will know, once again.

5. I believe that Roy Hall is still on this team for a reason, and if healthy I believe we will see that reason this season. Again, we might be best off getting a WR early, who knows, but he also might be on our roster already. I wonder which way Polian feels.

6. I would be okay with drafting a player like Mack first, as I really like him, but I find it strange to argue for that and against wide-out. The two lines of reasoning seem very similar. I will be fine if Polian goes either direction.

7. I believe we all love the Indianapolis Colts and all want whatever’s best to help us win.

Cue 7 paragraph essay :-D

I have no idea who the Colts will draft. I’m sure Polian and friends will make good choices for the future of the team. I look forward to checking in with our new players at the draft.

I am really excited to see Garcon get some playing time, I really think he will suprise alot of us with his talent. I’ve pretty much given up on Hall and as a Buckeye fan I find that hard to say but he just has’nt done much besides special teams. Move him to tight-end. Get me Hood or Laurinitis, or another great LB in a later round Marcus Freeman