This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at another semi-conventional stat: Time of Possession per Drive. This was suggested by Cassieper, so a special thanks goes out to him. There also was some talk of this last week, so I thought I'd bump this stat up the ladder and check it out. Here's the formula:
(ToP Minutes + ToP Seconds / 60) / Drives
When I pulled the data, it was much easier, for calculation purposes, to split ToP into minutes and seconds. That is why they are 2 separate categories. But don't worry, I've made everything look normal in the tables below, so it is easy to read.
Since this involves searching through the play-by-play data (to find the number of drives), I can only go back to 2001 to see how teams do. That means I'll be looking at 4,080 games over the past 8 years. I did this calculation for every game, then found the overall average for a game. I then went back and compared every game to this average, and found wins/losses based on being above or below average.
Here's what I found:
- The Overall Average over the past 8 years is 2:39 / Drive. I really wasn't sure how this number was going to turn out, but I figured it would be around 3:00 (30:00 ToP, 10 drives), so it may be a little low from what I thought it would be.
- This was the closest stat so far offensively, but much like every other one, the Colts are #1 in the league at 2:55 / Drive. They beat out the Steelers by just under 2 tenths of a second per drive. It was extremely close.
- Defensively, the Ravens are #1 at 2:28 / Drive. Again the Steelers are second, making them very good on both sides of the ball in this category. How about the Colts? 31st at 2:54 / Drive. What we all see on the field every week is exactly what the numbers show. The defense needs to get off the field quicker.
- How often do teams win when they are Above Average on Offense? 1330-705-0, which is 65.4%. Even better than Yards / Drive. Having an Above Average defense produces a record of 1334-707-4, which is 65.3%, pretty much the same as the offense. It like what I'm seeing.
- When both the Offense and Defense are Above Average, their record is 843-216, or 79.6%. This is much better than straight Time of Possession, which has a record of 1328-585, which is only 69.4%. You know see why I went with the Per Drive stat.
- The best game since 2001? Week 4 in 2005, where the Redskins had a whopping 5:37 / Drive against the Seahawks. Unfortunately for the Colts, the defense was in 3 of the top 5 games, and 5 of the top 11. Best game for the Colts offense? Week 12 in 2002 against the Broncos, when they had 4:52 / Drive.
- The worst game since 2001? Week 10 in 2002, where the Lions could only muster up 1:17 / Drive against the Packers. That is not good.
- I'm surprised at how well the Jets have played when both offense and defense are above average, going 24-1, which is tops in the NFL. The Buccaneers being 3rd is also surprising.
- The Colts have a better Win Percentage when the defense is Below Average than when the offense is Below Average. Again, this isn't earth shattering news by any means, but good confirmation from what we've seen on the field.
- You'll also notice in the 5 year data that both the Colts' offense and defense are over 3:00 / Drive. Great for the offense, bad for the defense. That also shows how the Colts have the fewest drives in the league, averaging that high on both sides of the ball. Just imagine if the defense could just be merely average...
After the jump you'll see the offensive and defensive numbers for each team, as well as Win/Loss records when going above/below the league average. Click on the headers to sort. Here's a link to the last 5 years worth of data. There's not much of a difference, especially since it only took out 3 years worth of data.
Here are the Offensive and Defensive Numbers...
Team | Offense | Defense | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ToP Mins | ToP Secs | Drives | ToP/Drive | ToP Mins | ToP Secs | Drives | ToP/Drive | |
Colts | 3782 | 3615 | 1311 | 2:55.8 | 3795 | 4075 | 1331 | 2:54.1 |
Steelers | 4122 | 3704 | 1429 | 2:55.7 | 3509 | 3796 | 1425 | 2:30.4 |
Patriots | 3941 | 3900 | 1395 | 2:52.3 | 3662 | 3597 | 1431 | 2:36.1 |
Jets | 3734 | 3569 | 1340 | 2:49.9 | 3905 | 3958 | 1365 | 2:54.5 |
Broncos | 3953 | 3660 | 1439 | 2:47.4 | 3667 | 4043 | 1419 | 2:37.9 |
Jaguars | 3861 | 3721 | 1412 | 2:46.7 | 3713 | 3872 | 1401 | 2:41.8 |
Chargers | 3831 | 3962 | 1425 | 2:44.1 | 3790 | 3641 | 1481 | 2:36.0 |
Buccaneers | 3910 | 3902 | 1466 | 2:42.7 | 3738 | 3709 | 1464 | 2:35.7 |
Vikings | 3873 | 3556 | 1458 | 2:41.8 | 3715 | 4068 | 1447 | 2:36.9 |
Rams | 3907 | 3613 | 1473 | 2:41.6 | 3695 | 4009 | 1452 | 2:35.4 |
Texans | 3240 | 3535 | 1227 | 2:41.3 | 3416 | 3122 | 1219 | 2:50.7 |
Titans | 3921 | 3882 | 1486 | 2:40.9 | 3667 | 3547 | 1471 | 2:32.0 |
Chiefs | 3800 | 3482 | 1444 | 2:40.3 | 3800 | 4051 | 1441 | 2:41.0 |
Falcons | 3817 | 3660 | 1455 | 2:39.9 | 3831 | 4054 | 1454 | 2:40.9 |
Giants | 3866 | 3610 | 1478 | 2:39.4 | 3785 | 3887 | 1485 | 2:35.5 |
Packers | 3887 | 3809 | 1488 | 2:39.3 | 3696 | 3843 | 1496 | 2:30.8 |
Saints | 3802 | 3823 | 1460 | 2:38.9 | 3782 | 3772 | 1448 | 2:39.3 |
Redskins | 3854 | 3752 | 1482 | 2:38.6 | 3734 | 3775 | 1468 | 2:35.2 |
Bills | 3722 | 3887 | 1435 | 2:38.3 | 3854 | 3675 | 1418 | 2:45.7 |
Cowboys | 3879 | 3963 | 1499 | 2:37.9 | 3708 | 3671 | 1491 | 2:31.7 |
Bengals | 3731 | 3816 | 1447 | 2:37.3 | 3864 | 3849 | 1441 | 2:43.6 |
Ravens | 3876 | 3708 | 1507 | 2:36.8 | 3732 | 3917 | 1537 | 2:28.2 |
Cardinals | 3776 | 4267 | 1474 | 2:36.6 | 3837 | 3320 | 1479 | 2:37.9 |
Raiders | 3683 | 3821 | 1449 | 2:35.1 | 3927 | 3823 | 1470 | 2:42.9 |
Dolphins | 3746 | 3822 | 1479 | 2:34.6 | 3840 | 3610 | 1459 | 2:40.4 |
49ers | 3761 | 3552 | 1486 | 2:34.2 | 3888 | 3925 | 1442 | 2:44.5 |
Seahawks | 3675 | 3892 | 1472 | 2:32.4 | 3945 | 3702 | 1480 | 2:42.4 |
Browns | 3635 | 3753 | 1464 | 2:31.5 | 3973 | 3800 | 1451 | 2:46.9 |
Panthers | 3735 | 4046 | 1510 | 2:31.1 | 3861 | 3686 | 1504 | 2:36.5 |
Eagles | 3732 | 3865 | 1517 | 2:30.2 | 3885 | 3638 | 1514 | 2:36.4 |
Lions | 3507 | 3880 | 1474 | 2:25.4 | 4086 | 3629 | 1462 | 2:50.2 |
Bears | 3677 | 3753 | 1555 | 2:24.3 | 3936 | 3716 | 1590 | 2:30.9 |
Total | 121236 | 120780 | 46436 | 2:39.3 | 121236 | 120780 | 46436 | 2:39.3 |
Here are the Win/Loss records of teams when they go above/below average:
Team | Offense | Defense | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Above Average | Below Average | Above Average | Below Average | |||||||||||||
Win | Loss | Tie | Pct | Win | Loss | Tie | Pct | Win | Loss | Tie | Pct | Win | Loss | Tie | Pct | |
Patriots | 73 | 9 | 0 | 0.890 | 24 | 22 | 0 | 0.522 | 61 | 7 | 0 | 0.897 | 36 | 24 | 0 | 0.600 |
Steelers | 71 | 17 | 0 | 0.807 | 14 | 25 | 1 | 0.363 | 62 | 19 | 1 | 0.762 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 0.500 |
Colts | 70 | 18 | 0 | 0.795 | 21 | 19 | 0 | 0.525 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 0.843 | 48 | 29 | 0 | 0.623 |
Chargers | 47 | 25 | 0 | 0.653 | 24 | 32 | 0 | 0.429 | 53 | 21 | 0 | 0.716 | 18 | 36 | 0 | 0.333 |
Packers | 47 | 18 | 0 | 0.723 | 28 | 35 | 0 | 0.444 | 51 | 22 | 0 | 0.699 | 24 | 31 | 0 | 0.436 |
Cowboys | 48 | 17 | 0 | 0.738 | 18 | 45 | 0 | 0.286 | 45 | 33 | 0 | 0.577 | 21 | 29 | 0 | 0.420 |
Eagles | 42 | 12 | 0 | 0.778 | 39 | 34 | 1 | 0.534 | 53 | 15 | 1 | 0.775 | 28 | 31 | 0 | 0.475 |
Ravens | 35 | 20 | 0 | 0.636 | 36 | 37 | 0 | 0.493 | 57 | 26 | 0 | 0.687 | 14 | 31 | 0 | 0.311 |
Seahawks | 42 | 15 | 0 | 0.737 | 29 | 42 | 0 | 0.408 | 42 | 14 | 0 | 0.750 | 29 | 43 | 0 | 0.403 |
Jets | 42 | 33 | 0 | 0.560 | 20 | 33 | 0 | 0.377 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0.872 | 28 | 61 | 0 | 0.315 |
Broncos | 57 | 22 | 0 | 0.722 | 17 | 32 | 0 | 0.347 | 44 | 20 | 0 | 0.688 | 30 | 34 | 0 | 0.469 |
Rams | 37 | 32 | 0 | 0.536 | 23 | 36 | 0 | 0.390 | 42 | 28 | 0 | 0.600 | 18 | 40 | 0 | 0.310 |
Dolphins | 37 | 22 | 0 | 0.627 | 24 | 45 | 0 | 0.348 | 43 | 24 | 0 | 0.642 | 18 | 43 | 0 | 0.295 |
Panthers | 36 | 14 | 0 | 0.720 | 28 | 50 | 0 | 0.359 | 50 | 22 | 0 | 0.694 | 14 | 42 | 0 | 0.250 |
Bears | 29 | 14 | 0 | 0.674 | 40 | 45 | 0 | 0.471 | 49 | 32 | 0 | 0.605 | 21 | 26 | 0 | 0.447 |
Giants | 42 | 26 | 0 | 0.618 | 26 | 34 | 0 | 0.433 | 42 | 21 | 0 | 0.667 | 26 | 39 | 0 | 0.400 |
Titans | 42 | 21 | 0 | 0.667 | 28 | 37 | 0 | 0.431 | 48 | 23 | 0 | 0.676 | 22 | 35 | 0 | 0.386 |
Falcons | 45 | 21 | 0 | 0.682 | 17 | 44 | 1 | 0.282 | 36 | 23 | 1 | 0.608 | 26 | 42 | 0 | 0.382 |
Buccaneers | 50 | 19 | 0 | 0.725 | 16 | 43 | 0 | 0.271 | 45 | 26 | 0 | 0.634 | 21 | 36 | 0 | 0.368 |
Saints | 37 | 27 | 0 | 0.578 | 23 | 41 | 0 | 0.359 | 37 | 26 | 0 | 0.587 | 23 | 42 | 0 | 0.354 |
Chiefs | 38 | 26 | 0 | 0.594 | 21 | 43 | 0 | 0.328 | 37 | 18 | 0 | 0.673 | 22 | 51 | 0 | 0.301 |
Vikings | 41 | 23 | 0 | 0.641 | 20 | 44 | 0 | 0.313 | 36 | 28 | 0 | 0.563 | 25 | 39 | 0 | 0.391 |
Bills | 30 | 33 | 0 | 0.476 | 22 | 43 | 0 | 0.338 | 33 | 21 | 0 | 0.611 | 19 | 55 | 0 | 0.257 |
Jaguars | 49 | 25 | 0 | 0.662 | 13 | 41 | 0 | 0.241 | 39 | 22 | 0 | 0.639 | 23 | 44 | 0 | 0.343 |
Browns | 28 | 19 | 0 | 0.596 | 21 | 60 | 0 | 0.259 | 31 | 22 | 0 | 0.585 | 18 | 57 | 0 | 0.240 |
49ers | 34 | 19 | 0 | 0.642 | 19 | 56 | 0 | 0.253 | 30 | 22 | 0 | 0.577 | 24 | 52 | 0 | 0.316 |
Bengals | 34 | 21 | 0 | 0.618 | 20 | 52 | 1 | 0.281 | 37 | 22 | 1 | 0.625 | 17 | 51 | 0 | 0.250 |
Redskins | 37 | 26 | 0 | 0.587 | 21 | 44 | 0 | 0.323 | 42 | 33 | 0 | 0.560 | 16 | 37 | 0 | 0.302 |
Cardinals | 33 | 27 | 0 | 0.550 | 16 | 52 | 0 | 0.235 | 35 | 27 | 0 | 0.565 | 14 | 52 | 0 | 0.212 |
Raiders | 32 | 25 | 0 | 0.561 | 13 | 58 | 0 | 0.183 | 30 | 31 | 0 | 0.492 | 15 | 52 | 0 | 0.224 |
Texans | 28 | 32 | 0 | 0.467 | 12 | 40 | 0 | 0.231 | 25 | 18 | 0 | 0.581 | 15 | 54 | 0 | 0.217 |
Lions | 17 | 27 | 0 | 0.386 | 14 | 70 | 0 | 0.167 | 22 | 28 | 0 | 0.440 | 9 | 69 | 0 | 0.115 |
Total | 1330 | 705 | 0 | 0.654 | 707 | 1334 | 4 | 0.347 | 1334 | 707 | 4 | 0.653 | 705 | 1330 | 0 | 0.346 |
And finally, Win/Loss records when the offense is above average, and the defense holds the other team below average
Team | Above Average | Below Average | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Win | Loss | Tie | Pct | Win | Loss | Tie | Pct | |
Patriots | 46 | 3 | 0 | 0.939 | 9 | 18 | 0 | 0.333 |
Steelers | 51 | 10 | 0 | 0.836 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0.158 |
Jets | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0.960 | 10 | 29 | 0 | 0.256 |
Packers | 30 | 6 | 0 | 0.833 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 0.269 |
Falcons | 27 | 7 | 0 | 0.794 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 0.222 |
Chargers | 34 | 6 | 0 | 0.850 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0.227 |
Giants | 25 | 9 | 0 | 0.735 | 9 | 22 | 0 | 0.290 |
Ravens | 29 | 7 | 0 | 0.806 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 0.308 |
Seahawks | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0.889 | 11 | 31 | 0 | 0.262 |
Rams | 25 | 13 | 0 | 0.658 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 0.222 |
Eagles | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0.889 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 0.313 |
Jaguars | 29 | 7 | 0 | 0.806 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 0.103 |
Bears | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0.750 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 0.321 |
Broncos | 32 | 8 | 0 | 0.800 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 0.200 |
Cowboys | 32 | 8 | 0 | 0.800 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 0.200 |
Panthers | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0.853 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 0.175 |
Colts | 29 | 4 | 0 | 0.879 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 0.318 |
Buccaneers | 37 | 4 | 0 | 0.902 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 0.276 |
Dolphins | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0.839 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 0.212 |
49ers | 21 | 7 | 0 | 0.750 | 10 | 41 | 0 | 0.196 |
Chiefs | 25 | 7 | 0 | 0.781 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 0.220 |
Saints | 23 | 11 | 0 | 0.676 | 9 | 26 | 0 | 0.257 |
Titans | 30 | 8 | 0 | 0.789 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 0.313 |
Raiders | 21 | 6 | 0 | 0.778 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 0.108 |
Cardinals | 25 | 11 | 0 | 0.694 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 0.143 |
Vikings | 22 | 8 | 0 | 0.733 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 0.200 |
Bengals | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0.808 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 0.103 |
Browns | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0.824 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 0.089 |
Bills | 19 | 11 | 0 | 0.633 | 8 | 33 | 0 | 0.195 |
Redskins | 24 | 12 | 0 | 0.667 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 0.115 |
Texans | 16 | 8 | 0 | 0.667 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 0.091 |
Lions | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0.733 | 3 | 46 | 0 | 0.061 |
Total | 843 | 216 | 0 | 0.796 | 216 | 843 | 0 | 0.204 |