Finding the Winning Factors - Time of Possession per Drive

by mgrex03 on Apr 14, 2009 12:05 PM EDT in Winning Stats Comment 17 comments

This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at another semi-conventional stat: Time of Possession per Drive. This was suggested by Cassieper, so a special thanks goes out to him. There also was some talk of this last week, so I thought I'd bump this stat up the ladder and check it out. Here's the formula:

(ToP Minutes + ToP Seconds / 60) / Drives

When I pulled the data, it was much easier, for calculation purposes, to split ToP into minutes and seconds. That is why they are 2 separate categories. But don't worry, I've made everything look normal in the tables below, so it is easy to read.

Since this involves searching through the play-by-play data (to find the number of drives), I can only go back to 2001 to see how teams do. That means I'll be looking at 4,080 games over the past 8 years. I did this calculation for every game, then found the overall average for a game. I then went back and compared every game to this average, and found wins/losses based on being above or below average.

Here's what I found:

The Overall Average over the past 8 years is 2:39 / Drive. I really wasn't sure how this number was going to turn out, but I figured it would be around 3:00 (30:00 ToP, 10 drives), so it may be a little low from what I thought it would be.
This was the closest stat so far offensively, but much like every other one, the Colts are #1 in the league at 2:55 / Drive. They beat out the Steelers by just under 2 tenths of a second per drive. It was extremely close.
Defensively, the Ravens are #1 at 2:28 / Drive. Again the Steelers are second, making them very good on both sides of the ball in this category. How about the Colts? 31st at 2:54 / Drive. What we all see on the field every week is exactly what the numbers show. The defense needs to get off the field quicker.
How often do teams win when they are Above Average on Offense? 1330-705-0, which is 65.4%. Even better than Yards / Drive. Having an Above Average defense produces a record of 1334-707-4, which is 65.3%, pretty much the same as the offense. It like what I'm seeing.
When both the Offense and Defense are Above Average, their record is 843-216, or 79.6%. This is much better than straight Time of Possession, which has a record of 1328-585, which is only 69.4%. You know see why I went with the Per Drive stat.
The best game since 2001? Week 4 in 2005, where the Redskins had a whopping 5:37 / Drive against the Seahawks. Unfortunately for the Colts, the defense was in 3 of the top 5 games, and 5 of the top 11. Best game for the Colts offense? Week 12 in 2002 against the Broncos, when they had 4:52 / Drive.
The worst game since 2001? Week 10 in 2002, where the Lions could only muster up 1:17 / Drive against the Packers. That is not good.
I'm surprised at how well the Jets have played when both offense and defense are above average, going 24-1, which is tops in the NFL. The Buccaneers being 3rd is also surprising.
The Colts have a better Win Percentage when the defense is Below Average than when the offense is Below Average. Again, this isn't earth shattering news by any means, but good confirmation from what we've seen on the field.
You'll also notice in the 5 year data that both the Colts' offense and defense are over 3:00 / Drive. Great for the offense, bad for the defense. That also shows how the Colts have the fewest drives in the league, averaging that high on both sides of the ball. Just imagine if the defense could just be merely average...

After the jump you'll see the offensive and defensive numbers for each team, as well as Win/Loss records when going above/below the league average. Click on the headers to sort. Here's a link to the last 5 years worth of data. There's not much of a difference, especially since it only took out 3 years worth of data.

Here are the Offensive and Defensive Numbers...

Team	Offense				Defense
Team	ToP Mins	ToP Secs	Drives	ToP/Drive	ToP Mins	ToP Secs	Drives	ToP/Drive
Colts	3782	3615	1311	2:55.8	3795	4075	1331	2:54.1
Steelers	4122	3704	1429	2:55.7	3509	3796	1425	2:30.4
Patriots	3941	3900	1395	2:52.3	3662	3597	1431	2:36.1
Jets	3734	3569	1340	2:49.9	3905	3958	1365	2:54.5
Broncos	3953	3660	1439	2:47.4	3667	4043	1419	2:37.9
Jaguars	3861	3721	1412	2:46.7	3713	3872	1401	2:41.8
Chargers	3831	3962	1425	2:44.1	3790	3641	1481	2:36.0
Buccaneers	3910	3902	1466	2:42.7	3738	3709	1464	2:35.7
Vikings	3873	3556	1458	2:41.8	3715	4068	1447	2:36.9
Rams	3907	3613	1473	2:41.6	3695	4009	1452	2:35.4
Texans	3240	3535	1227	2:41.3	3416	3122	1219	2:50.7
Titans	3921	3882	1486	2:40.9	3667	3547	1471	2:32.0
Chiefs	3800	3482	1444	2:40.3	3800	4051	1441	2:41.0
Falcons	3817	3660	1455	2:39.9	3831	4054	1454	2:40.9
Giants	3866	3610	1478	2:39.4	3785	3887	1485	2:35.5
Packers	3887	3809	1488	2:39.3	3696	3843	1496	2:30.8
Saints	3802	3823	1460	2:38.9	3782	3772	1448	2:39.3
Redskins	3854	3752	1482	2:38.6	3734	3775	1468	2:35.2
Bills	3722	3887	1435	2:38.3	3854	3675	1418	2:45.7
Cowboys	3879	3963	1499	2:37.9	3708	3671	1491	2:31.7
Bengals	3731	3816	1447	2:37.3	3864	3849	1441	2:43.6
Ravens	3876	3708	1507	2:36.8	3732	3917	1537	2:28.2
Cardinals	3776	4267	1474	2:36.6	3837	3320	1479	2:37.9
Raiders	3683	3821	1449	2:35.1	3927	3823	1470	2:42.9
Dolphins	3746	3822	1479	2:34.6	3840	3610	1459	2:40.4
49ers	3761	3552	1486	2:34.2	3888	3925	1442	2:44.5
Seahawks	3675	3892	1472	2:32.4	3945	3702	1480	2:42.4
Browns	3635	3753	1464	2:31.5	3973	3800	1451	2:46.9
Panthers	3735	4046	1510	2:31.1	3861	3686	1504	2:36.5
Eagles	3732	3865	1517	2:30.2	3885	3638	1514	2:36.4
Lions	3507	3880	1474	2:25.4	4086	3629	1462	2:50.2
Bears	3677	3753	1555	2:24.3	3936	3716	1590	2:30.9
Total	121236	120780	46436	2:39.3	121236	120780	46436	2:39.3

Here are the Win/Loss records of teams when they go above/below average:

Team	Offense								Defense
	Above Average				Below Average				Above Average				Below Average
	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Patriots	73	9	0	0.890	24	22	0	0.522	61	7	0	0.897	36	24	0	0.600
Steelers	71	17	0	0.807	14	25	1	0.363	62	19	1	0.762	23	23	0	0.500
Colts	70	18	0	0.795	21	19	0	0.525	43	8	0	0.843	48	29	0	0.623
Chargers	47	25	0	0.653	24	32	0	0.429	53	21	0	0.716	18	36	0	0.333
Packers	47	18	0	0.723	28	35	0	0.444	51	22	0	0.699	24	31	0	0.436
Cowboys	48	17	0	0.738	18	45	0	0.286	45	33	0	0.577	21	29	0	0.420
Eagles	42	12	0	0.778	39	34	1	0.534	53	15	1	0.775	28	31	0	0.475
Ravens	35	20	0	0.636	36	37	0	0.493	57	26	0	0.687	14	31	0	0.311
Seahawks	42	15	0	0.737	29	42	0	0.408	42	14	0	0.750	29	43	0	0.403
Jets	42	33	0	0.560	20	33	0	0.377	34	5	0	0.872	28	61	0	0.315
Broncos	57	22	0	0.722	17	32	0	0.347	44	20	0	0.688	30	34	0	0.469
Rams	37	32	0	0.536	23	36	0	0.390	42	28	0	0.600	18	40	0	0.310
Dolphins	37	22	0	0.627	24	45	0	0.348	43	24	0	0.642	18	43	0	0.295
Panthers	36	14	0	0.720	28	50	0	0.359	50	22	0	0.694	14	42	0	0.250
Bears	29	14	0	0.674	40	45	0	0.471	49	32	0	0.605	21	26	0	0.447
Giants	42	26	0	0.618	26	34	0	0.433	42	21	0	0.667	26	39	0	0.400
Titans	42	21	0	0.667	28	37	0	0.431	48	23	0	0.676	22	35	0	0.386
Falcons	45	21	0	0.682	17	44	1	0.282	36	23	1	0.608	26	42	0	0.382
Buccaneers	50	19	0	0.725	16	43	0	0.271	45	26	0	0.634	21	36	0	0.368
Saints	37	27	0	0.578	23	41	0	0.359	37	26	0	0.587	23	42	0	0.354
Chiefs	38	26	0	0.594	21	43	0	0.328	37	18	0	0.673	22	51	0	0.301
Vikings	41	23	0	0.641	20	44	0	0.313	36	28	0	0.563	25	39	0	0.391
Bills	30	33	0	0.476	22	43	0	0.338	33	21	0	0.611	19	55	0	0.257
Jaguars	49	25	0	0.662	13	41	0	0.241	39	22	0	0.639	23	44	0	0.343
Browns	28	19	0	0.596	21	60	0	0.259	31	22	0	0.585	18	57	0	0.240
49ers	34	19	0	0.642	19	56	0	0.253	30	22	0	0.577	24	52	0	0.316
Bengals	34	21	0	0.618	20	52	1	0.281	37	22	1	0.625	17	51	0	0.250
Redskins	37	26	0	0.587	21	44	0	0.323	42	33	0	0.560	16	37	0	0.302
Cardinals	33	27	0	0.550	16	52	0	0.235	35	27	0	0.565	14	52	0	0.212
Raiders	32	25	0	0.561	13	58	0	0.183	30	31	0	0.492	15	52	0	0.224
Texans	28	32	0	0.467	12	40	0	0.231	25	18	0	0.581	15	54	0	0.217
Lions	17	27	0	0.386	14	70	0	0.167	22	28	0	0.440	9	69	0	0.115
Total	1330	705	0	0.654	707	1334	4	0.347	1334	707	4	0.653	705	1330	0	0.346

And finally, Win/Loss records when the offense is above average, and the defense holds the other team below average

Team	Above Average				Below Average
Team	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Patriots	46	3	0	0.939	9	18	0	0.333
Steelers	51	10	0	0.836	3	16	0	0.158
Jets	24	1	0	0.960	10	29	0	0.256
Packers	30	6	0	0.833	7	19	0	0.269
Falcons	27	7	0	0.794	8	28	0	0.222
Chargers	34	6	0	0.850	5	17	0	0.227
Giants	25	9	0	0.735	9	22	0	0.290
Ravens	29	7	0	0.806	8	18	0	0.308
Seahawks	24	3	0	0.889	11	31	0	0.262
Rams	25	13	0	0.658	6	21	0	0.222
Eagles	24	3	0	0.889	10	22	0	0.313
Jaguars	29	7	0	0.806	3	26	0	0.103
Bears	18	6	0	0.750	9	19	0	0.321
Broncos	32	8	0	0.800	5	20	0	0.200
Cowboys	32	8	0	0.800	5	20	0	0.200
Panthers	29	5	0	0.853	7	33	0	0.175
Colts	29	4	0	0.879	7	15	0	0.318
Buccaneers	37	4	0	0.902	8	21	0	0.276
Dolphins	26	5	0	0.839	7	26	0	0.212
49ers	21	7	0	0.750	10	41	0	0.196
Chiefs	25	7	0	0.781	9	32	0	0.220
Saints	23	11	0	0.676	9	26	0	0.257
Titans	30	8	0	0.789	10	22	0	0.313
Raiders	21	6	0	0.778	4	33	0	0.108
Cardinals	25	11	0	0.694	6	36	0	0.143
Vikings	22	8	0	0.733	6	24	0	0.200
Bengals	21	5	0	0.808	4	35	0	0.103
Browns	14	3	0	0.824	4	41	0	0.089
Bills	19	11	0	0.633	8	33	0	0.195
Redskins	24	12	0	0.667	3	23	0	0.115
Texans	16	8	0	0.667	3	30	0	0.091
Lions	11	4	0	0.733	3	46	0	0.061
Total	843	216	0	0.796	216	843	0	0.204

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Rec'd

Love this info and it just confirms again what many fans (and others) have been saying for years now…..taking another skill position player in the 1st Round isn’t going to help the defense, which simply needs to get better all around.

Also notice that you can’t blame the defensive ToP concerns on the Cover 2, because many of the other teams that use that same system are averaging 20-25 seconds less per drive which comes to about a full extra offensive posession per game I would think.

by AceOfSpades on Apr 14, 2009 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

well actually ANPY/A had a stronger relationship with winning

65.4%/65.3% to 70.6%/70.2% when one unit is above average

79.6% to 88.6% when both units are above average

this data says that having (or preventing) an efficient passing offense is more important than going on (or preventing) long drives.

I got Summer hatin' on me cuz I'm hotter than the sun. Spring hatin' on me cuz I ain't never sprung
Winter hatin' on me cuz I'm colder than Y'all. And I will never, I will never, I will never Fall.
-Lil Wayne, Mr. Carter

by shake n bake on Apr 14, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

link

http://www.stampedeblue.com/2009/2/18/762411/finding-the-winning-factor

by shake n bake on Apr 14, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks mgrex03.

This is good to know. I have to admit that I have always criticized time of possession stats and rolled my eyes at people who say that we “need to get our defense off the field,” but this proved me wrong. Guess that’s what this series is all about, huh?

Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.

Man, I need a life...

Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: The fear of long words is called Hippopotomonstrosesquippedaliophobia. Think about that for a second.

by Cassieper on Apr 14, 2009 4:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

rolling your eyes might not have been the right responce

but if they are proposing less resources go to the passing game or stopping the pass Mgrex’s data suggests “eye roll away”. (see my above comment)

by shake n bake on Apr 14, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep.

That’s an important distinction to make, and one that a lot of people miss.

Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.

Man, I need a life...

Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: The fear of long words is called Hippopotomonstrosesquippedaliophobia. Think about that for a second.

by Cassieper on Apr 14, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Love your fact of the week!

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Apr 14, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks.

I’m not sure how long I’ll be able to think up interesting ones (I learned this one at a Buffalo Wild Wings trivia game.). I may need to fall back on game show facts eventually. Love me some game shows.

Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.

Man, I need a life...

Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: The fear of long words is called Hippopotomonstrosesquippedaliophobia. Think about that for a second.

by Cassieper on Apr 14, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

how about John Elway didn't have a season with a QB Rating over 90

until his 11th season as a starter. Or than his career QB rating is lower than Jeff George, Jason Campbell and Byron Leftwich’s. I didn’t know that until today.

by shake n bake on Apr 14, 2009 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is interesting...

I’ll have to remember that for when I get stuck coming up with a new one (and it will eventually happen). Learn something new every day.

Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.

Man, I need a life...

Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: The fear of long words is called Hippopotomonstrosesquippedaliophobia. Think about that for a second.

by Cassieper on Apr 14, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

We are disproving myths, and finding facts that you can take out into the world.

I still think the best thing we’ve found so far is that a good RB Success Rate in the 4th quarter loses more games than it wins.

I’ve got lots more coming throughout the summer, so stay tuned.

NFC North and NFC South writer for SB Nation's NFL Draft blog: Mocking the Draft

by mgrex03 on Apr 14, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That RB success rate bit is a stunner!

Overall, another brilliant piece.

But as I have said often, since we’re talking averages here, the D does not have to be merely middle of the league. It can be statistically the same D, with one small change (I know, that changes the stats, but only by a hair). It just has to make one more 3rd down stop per game. Two more would be insane. It would reduce the opponents’ TOP/D and add to our drives/scoring, etc Can you Imagine Manning’s stats with 32 more possessions a season? And that would put him just at league average! Or our sack-happy DEs with a more desperate and pass-whacky opponent as a result?

One stop is all I ask of this year’s draft. One more 3rd down stop per game. A pick or fumble is great, but a non-Scifres punt is good too. Two more stops each week, and we have another Lombardi.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Apr 15, 2009 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

3 & Outs

Your next stat should be offensive and defensive 3 and outs. Just off the cuff, I’d say the Colts probably were on the lower part of the spectrum in regards to forcing a 3 and out on defense and probably had a much higher percentage of losing when the offense had less than the average of the rest of the league in a loss.

Jim Sorgi runs a 4.6 40. That's all I've got to say about that.

by monstersbox on Apr 15, 2009 2:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll put it on the list

I actually figured that out already, when I thought I was doing FO’s Drive Success Rate, until I figured out what they were actually doing. I’ll try to do it sooner than later.

NFC North and NFC South writer for SB Nation's NFL Draft blog: Mocking the Draft

by mgrex03 on Apr 15, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great Series

I’ve enjoyed these articles and I really think they do a great job of confirming what we see on the field and uncovering what we know to be pop-media myths.

It would be great to see not only which of these statistics most closely correlates with winning percentage but also which of them are the best predictors of future results. Really, it’s a whole different animal and might be tough to do across seasons (because teams obviously change). So with a smaller sample-size (i.e., only the games of that particular season that have already been played), can we really expect similar performances among the teams week to week? Then again, because we’ve consistently seen the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers at the top of these measures, it might be the case that form holds true from season to season.

It might be an interesting feature to add to next season’s Stampede Blue Prediction Contest. You did a great job with that series and I thought that tracking the performance of "Home Teams" and "Road Teams" was particularly insightful. Anyway, thanks again.

by B.P. Glass on Apr 15, 2009 9:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Honestly, that is the whole reason for doing this

I had a predictor last year, but it was very basic, and only used straight stats. I wanted to find out which stats led to wins, then use those.

Last year I only used the previous 7 games, as anything before that wasn’t significant. I also just used a straight average of the 7, which I plan not to do this season. It will be much more sophisticated. And I’ll be sharing the results right here.

NFC North and NFC South writer for SB Nation's NFL Draft blog: Mocking the Draft

by mgrex03 on Apr 15, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs