Official Team Needs - Pre-Draft 2009

Recently I reviewed Polian's draft history and listed our drafts back to 2001 with the needs at each position before the draft.  Clearly, as hard as I tried, I couldn't completely remove 20/20 vision from my team needs assessment.  Accordingly, I thought it prudent to post what I believe are the team's official needs coming in to this draft.

Team Strengths:

The Colts biggest offensive strength is its passing game.  Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, and Dallas Clark combine for a high-octane passing attack which keeps opposing defenses on their heals, often struggling to match up.  With the departure of Marvin Harrison a new era is beginning and fans know that Polian puts a premium on offensive weapons for Manning to utilize.  Anytime the Colts feel they "have their man" in a draft who will be a new weapon for Peyton Manning, they will likely pull the trigger.  Still, not much work needs to be done to improve the passing game and arguably the biggest improvement could still be made on the offensive line.

The Colts biggest defensive strength is its passing defense.  The reasons for the Colts success defending the pass are varied:

1) Opponents choose to run the ball on the Colts, and have for the last two-four years, in order to keep Peyton Manning off of the field.

2) When our opponents do try to pass they have to deal with Freeney/Mathis hurrying the quarterback, forcing fumbles and getting sacks. Taking our pass rush out of the game is to their advantage.

3) We draft corners specifically for our system, not cover-corners but guys who excel in zone coverage. The result of that is two-fold.

First, trying to throw into the zone is dangerous, can force turnovers and leads to injuries because our secondary is one of (if not the) hardest hitting secondaries in the league.

Two, to expose the weaknesses of our secondary the receiver must be given enough time to get “over the top” of the zone… which means the QB needs more time than usual to wait for the play to develop and #2 above becomes a bigger factor.

With these things in mind, it can be said that finding system corners and pass-rushers is a Colts drafting strength.  This year could be a time to address the corner position, however, because Marlin Jackson and Tim Jennings are both in contract years and the other CB who saw the most time last year not named Hayden was Keiwan Ratliff who has just been signed by the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Drafting a CB or two would be wise and could start in the 2nd or 3rd Round of the draft, unless Malcolm Jenkins were to fall in the 1st Round.

Team Weaknesses:

The Colts biggest offensive weakness is its running game.  The reasons for this are the cause of much debate though all agree they are varied.  First, a lot of fans believe the biggest weakness in the Colts running game is along the offensive line.  Ryan Lilja was injured all of last year and Charlie Johnson was pushed into the starting line-up.  Additionally, Jake Scott was not retained for the 2008 season so rookie Mike Pollak had to step in at RG.  Add to all that the injury to Jeff Satruday which held him out of four games and arguably kept him from ever returning to 100% last year and we begin to see a pattern.  Still, the biggest need on the offensive line would seem to be the OT position with Ugoh struggling to this point and Ryan Diem struggling last year as well.

The Colts biggest defensive weakness is its run defense.  There could be two positions on the team who deserve some blame but few deny that defensive tackle is the biggest reason for the team's struggles.  The team has continually been addressing the LB issue through free agency, retaining Tyjuan Hagler, picking up Adam Seward, Michael Okwo and Rufus Alexander.  The team also added Philip Wheeler last year, and has lost only Freddie Keiaho.  Adding a LB could be an option but the argument for DT is varied as well:

1) The BIGGEST reason the Colts run defense ranked 31st last year is because of the interior of the defensive line.

2) Even the DTs we added as free agents last year either didn’t pan out, did not have a chance to really prove their value, or didn’t play.

Antonio Johnson wasn’t active for 2 or 3 games after he was added to the roster. Muir didn’t play more than a handful of downs all year. Dawson/Foster got beat up inside at their weight. Brock was back to DE. Darrell Reid is gone.

3) We have no talent or depth at the position for improving against the run. Imagine a CB rotation that looks like this: Tim Jennings, Brandon Foster, Michael Coe, T.J.Rushing, Dante Hughes. That is the equivalent of our run-stopping DTs right now.

It’s clearly the biggest need position on the team, DEFINITELY needs one starter out of the draft and arguably two (I argue two). No other position on the team, none, zero… HAS TO HAVE a starting caliber player in their first year for the team to perform well at that position or in that aspect of the game.

4) HISTORY! In the last three years at DT we’ve had the Corey Simon experience, lost Booger to a career ending injury, lost Reagor to a car accident, had Pitcock retire, witnessed Johnson smoke his way out of the league, lost Darrell Reid to free agency, and so on. This position is NOT getting stronger and has only gotten weaker in the last three years. It MUST be fixed. What is the draft for if not to find players who play in weak/broken positions on your team and mold them into the player you want them to be?

Team Positional Needs

1)  Defensive Tackle -

Current Roster -

NT - Antonio Johnson

NT/UT - Daniel Muir

UT - Eric Foster

UT/DE - Keyunta Dawon, Raheem Brock

Our starting DTs on the depth chart are both under 270 lbs. and simply could not hold up against the run last year.  Antonio Johnson may develop in our system but even after he was added to the roster he was inactive for 2 or 3 games.  Daniel Muir played only a handful of downs and is a bit of an unknown at this point.  Raheem Brock moved back outside to DE last year and unless a return inside is eminent, Brock is really only used inside on passing downs.  Accordingly, the Colts not only need "more size" but more importantly the Colts need more run stopping ABILITY than is currently on the roster.  The Colts NEED at least one starting caliber DT in 2009, and most likely need 2 starters in 2009, and based on salary cap numbers it appears those players will have to come from the draft.

2)  Offensive Line (OT)

Current Roster -

OT - Tony Ugoh, Ryan Diem, Michael Toudouze, Corey Hilliard

OT/G - Charlie Johnson, Dan Federkeil

G - Ryan Lilja, Mike Pollak, Brandon Barnes

C/G -Jamey Richard, Steve Justice, Kyle DeVan

C - Jeff Saturday

We certainly don’t need any G/Cs, we just picked up two more interior OLs in free agency, Kyle DeVan and Brandon Barnes. If we draft one it will be because we think he’s just too good to pass up. It won’t be for need.  He'll also likely be someone who think can move outside to RT.

However, drafting a solid OT back-up who could play LT or RT should Ugoh/Diem have injuries, or to replace one of them if they should not pan out, is a possibility. I don’t think it takes a 1st/2nd Round OT to be a suitable back-up or potential Diem replacement. The only reason to draft an OT on day one is if we're looking for a LT to replace Ugoh. I don’t think we're there yet with him. But we shall see.

3)  Runningback

Current Roster -

Joseph Addai, Mike Hart, Chad Simpson, Lance Ball

I think the Colts could be looking for a compliment to Addai but they’d only strike early if they absolutely felt a player was too talented to pass up. The depth behind Addai may not be composed of high draft picks but all indications, at this point, are suggesting they are suitable 1b “material.” Unless Moreno or Wells drops in the first, I don’t see a RB before Round 2 but I doubt they wait later than round 4. This is pretty deep RB class imo and "value" is the key to these picks.

4)  Cornerback

Current Roster - Kelvin Hayden, Marlin Jackson, Tim Jennings, Dante Hughes, Michael Coe, T.J. Rushing, Brandon Foster, Nick Graham, Travis Key, Brandon Sumrall

Cornerback has moved up my needs list because we were unable to retain Keiwan Ratliff.  Now that Ratliff is in Pittsburgh there is a much bigger question-mark at the position.  Both Marlin Jackson and Tim Jennings are in their contract seasons.  Unless Jackson is retained it is likely we'll have a new starting CB on the outside.  Tim Jennings could be retained for less cost to the team but he's not nearly as talented as Marlin Jackson and if he is not retained we'll have no proven starter ready to take his place.  Accordingly, it is quite possible that the Colts will strike early for a CB to replace the departing Jackson/Jennings, and may even select two.  There are a handful of prospects who should fit well in the Colts scheme with names like Victor Harris, Mike Mickens, and Bradley Fletcher popping out.  Those are 2nd-5th Round prospects and may find their way onto the Colts.

5)  Wide Receiver

Current Roster -

WR - Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, Roy Hall, Pierre Garcon, Samuel Giguere, Taj Smith

TE - Dallas Clark, Gijon Robison, Tom Santi, Jacob Tamme, Jamie Petrowski

I agree with those who have stated that we don’t need 5 First Round draft picks as weapons in the passing game for Manning to be effective. However, I see this particular group of WRs as one that might tempt Polian and Co. to get one early. I don’t care if it’s popular or not but I think Brian Robiskie is EXACTLY the kind of receiver the Colts want. He fits the Colts in EVERY way. Accordingly, I wouldn’t be surprised nor do I think it would be a reach (go run to your draft guides scoff) to grab him in the 1st Round. We’ll take the MVPA and he could be it on the Colts board. We’ll see how things come along and if we don’t get a WR until the 2nd day, this fan won’t be panicked in the slightest.

6)  Line Backer

OLB - Clint Session, Philip Wheeler, Tyjuan Hagler, Jordan Senn, Michael Okwo, Rufus Alexander

MLB - Gary Brackett, Adam Seward

I think there are a few Mike prospects who could intrigue the Colts and finding a heir for Gary Brackett who is not getting any younger is possible.  However, I think the OLB draft is much deeper and there could be some very strong candidates in the middle rounds. I think they should add at least one but wouldn’t panic at this position if they don’t get anyone either. I just think the class, overall, is too good (particularly for the kinds of guys we look for) for us to pass up all of them.  The early possibilities are Laurinaitis in the 1st Round and Marcus Freeman in the 2nd, in my opinion.

*Other notable potential needs - Back-up QB, P, and S.