Percy Harvin v. Hakeem Nicks - YOU DECIDE 2009

While some Colts fans disagree about whether the Colts should draft a WR in the 1st Round, one thing is clear; drafting a WR is certainly not out of the question.  It is not uncommon for Polian to go offense in the 1st Round and it would seem that either WR or RB would be the greatest offensive skill position needs on the team this year.  Accordingly, this thread will take a look at the two most respected 1st Round WR prospects amongst most Colts fans.  A lot has changed since February that has caused Percy Harvin and Hakeem Nicks to see their stock rise and fall.  The question posed to you is, if Polian does select a WR with pick 27 and these two WRs are available, who would you choose?

Percy Harvin - Florida

Photo
Photo - Harvin is Ripped!
2008 Season Highlights
Go Hard - Percy Harvin Tribute

5'11", 192 lbs.
4.39 40 Yard Dash, 3.93 20 Yard Shuttle, 6.68 3-Cone
20 Bench Reps, 37.5 Inch Vertical

SENIOR SEASON STATS

40 Receptions, 644 Receiving Yards, 7 TDs - 16.1 Yard Avg.
70  Rushes, 659 Rushing Yards, 10 TDs - 9.4 Yard Avg.

INJURIES

2006 - Left-Ankle injury limited Harvin or kept him out of games for two months.  One week after returning he was injured again, suffering a neck stinger.

2007 - Limited in practice on 8/14 because of Achilles' tendonitis.  Missed a week of practice after he suffered a hip pointer on 9/22.  Harvin missed a game on 11/10 and missed close to the next two weeks of practice because of sinus infection and migraine headaches.

2008 - Heel problems forced Harvin to miss spring drills on March 24.  On April 7, Harvin had heel surgery.  Was unable to return to full-speed practices until Sept. 6.  Harvin sprained his right ankle, which he re-injured in a game against Florida State.  Forced to miss practices leading up to the SEC Championship game, and the game itself, against Alabama on Dec. 6.  After working hard to rehabilitate, Harvin did participate in the BCS game v. Oklahoma.

ANALYSIS

NFLDraftScout, MockingtheDraft.com

Strengths:

Shorter than scouts would like, but has a strong, compact build.  Rare straight-line speed.  Rare elusiveness.  Can make defenders miss in tight quarters.  Good vision when running in space.  Sets up his blocks well and can cut back against the grain.  Good agility as a route-runner.  Strong, secure hands for the reception.  Courageous going over the middle.  Gathers in the pass and quickly moves upfield to maximize production.  Can extend outside of his frame to make the spectacular reception.  Versatile athlete who can contribute as a receiver, running back and shows great potential as a returner, although he never attempted a kick or punt return at Florida.  Has struggled with durability, but is considered a physically tough player.

Harvin possesses possibly the best first step off the line not only in this draft class, but of the last several years.  He's explosive off the snap, which allows him to immediately get open on slant routes.  Harvin bursts into and out of his cuts with a strong plant foot.  Coaches said he is a strong competitor with great work ethic.  Has incredible elusiveness and can score on any possession.  Intelligently cuts back to gain extra yards going against the flow of traffic.  Will go over the middle on occasion.  Has the agility to make extraordinary catches look easy.  An intelligent player who has lined up at multiple receiver spots, running back and even quarterback.

If there is anything that is clear about Percy Harvin it is that he is a dynamic player.  He can run, catch, and throw the ball better than most football players and has the ability to break big plays as a receiver and out of the backfield.  He is quick, fast in a line, has great moves and instincts, and the kind of elusiveness that doesn't come along that often.  That he plays with intelligence and can get in and out of his breaks as quickly as he can gives him a lot of potential as a route runner in the NFL as well.

Weaknesses:

Looks shorter on film than his listed 5'11.  Many of his plays in this offense were slip screens designed to get him the ball quickly and in space.  Could struggle acclimating to a more pro-style offense.  Lack of success at the NFL level for former receivers from Meyer's offense is troubling.  Has struggled with durability.  Missed practice time in 2008 with ankle, hip pointer and tendonitis in his knee and heel.

Where does he play?  Much like Reggie Bush of the New Orleans Saints, Harvin might be good at a lot of different things, but a master of none.  He might not be able to be relied on as a true no. 1 receiver and is far too slender to regularly carry the ball as a running back.  Has a long history of injury problems.  While he may have missed five games in three years, he was banged up and unproductive in several contests.  In 2007, Harvin sat out two games with the flu, so his toughness is somewhat questionable.  For such an explosive and fast player, it's somewhat of a surprise that Harvin never returned a punt or kick at Florida.  While it's probably due to the Gators having so much talent and speed, it makes you question Harvin's ability to do this and even his vision somewhat.

Harvin is kind of small for the receiver position, at least in the NFL.  While he is the same height as Anthony Gonzalez, he plays smaller than Gonzalez.  As such, if Harvin were to come to the Colts he'd likely be put into the slot.  As some Colts fans may remember, though, one of the biggest issues we had with the "slot machine," Brandon Stokely, is that he seemed to get injured regularly.  Harvin is coming into the NFL with a notorious history of injuries.  Ankle turns, heel problems, illnesses, tendonitis, etc.  That said, I don't agree with the analysis from Mocking the Draft suggesting that because Harvin didn't return punts or kicks at all "it makes you question Harvin's ability to do this and his vision somewhat."  Umm... no, it doesn't.  That is silly logic.  He was a 1st team player who was injured often and a major part of the running and receiving game.  Having him return kicks would have been silly.  Also, the argument that missing time due to having the flu puts Harvin's toughness in question is likewise foolish.  Anyone who has tried to play sports at a high level while suffering from illnesses causing fever, congestion and respiratory problems knows that it is pretty much impossible.

PROFESSIONAL SCOUTING REPORT - Dave-Te' Thomas - CBSSports.com

Dave-Te Thomas Biographical Information

Athletic Ability:  Harvin has that explosive playing burst to easily gain separation after the catch.  He is shorter than ideal for a split end, but has good strength for a player his size and uses his hands well to defeat the press.  His suddenness coming out of his stance will see him consistently gobble up the cushion and his acceleration and burst is most effective when utilized on the team's screens, as he shows that straight-line charge to instantly break free and the hip swerve to elude.  He shows nice feet getting in and out of his cuts.  He does an excellent job of extending for the ball and keeping his feet inbounds when working along the sidelines.  He has the burst to quickly eat up the cushion and run by defensive backs consistently.  He also has the hip wiggle and head fakes to elude defenders after the catch.

Football Sense:  Harvin is a good student of the game, as he plays with solid awareness and instincts.  He has that uncanny feel to adjust on the move and set up the defensive backs when trying to get open.  He shows very good vision and hip snap to elude after the catch.  He learns and retains plays with minimal reps.  He has big-play quickness after the catch, as he consistently finds the open areas and works back to the ball, making nice adjustments to the poorly thrown pass.  He has no problems taking the plays from the chalkboard to the field.

Character:  Harvin has made a conscious effort to stay out of the spotlight at Florida.  He showed great maturity and solid work ethic, battling back from several injuries with only one desire - to return to the football field.

Competitiveness:  Harvin always gives total effort on the field.  He might lack the bulk and strength to punish defenders, but will not hesitate to sacrifice his body in order to make the tough catch going over the middle.  He has that fearless nature like Hines Ward, in that he willingly gives up his body to get to the ball.  He loves to play the game, will not hesitate to compete for the ball in a crowd and gives a consistently high effort.  In crunch situations, he thrives by being the type who wants the ball when the game is on the line.

Work Habits:  Harvin proved his worth ethic with his strong desire to get back on the field late last season... staying at school over Christmas Break in order to rehab an ankle sprain that threatened to keep him out of the BCS Championship.

ATHLETIC REPORT:  GRADE:  7.44

Route Running:  Harvin is an effective route runner who shows very loose lower body motion.  He has the balance, body control and quickness, along with the strong and quick feet in his routes to separate out of his cuts.  He needs to be a bit more focused attacking the deep third of the secondary (will sometimes drift on long patterns), but has developed crisp cut moves and refined his route running.  His body control and quickness out of his breaks allows him to set up the defender, as he does a nice job of dropping his weight, sinking his hips and maintaining body control in and out of his cuts when separating.

Ball Concentration:  Harvin shows better vision and focus working underneath than he does on deep routes.  He will make the tough grab in traffic and knows how to keep is feet along the sidelines, but needs to stay in his pattern better (drifts) when going for the deep ball.  Will make adjustments so he doesn't repeat mistakes.

Ball Adjustment:  Harvin has the frame and good extension to get to the ball outside his frame.  He uses his timing and leaping ability to battle for the throw at its highest point and shows the natural hands and ball skills to make smooth adjustments on the move.  He has the hip snap to make the adjustments when the throws are behind him.  Few receivers can get the rise in their leap or contort their body and make adjustments in the air to get the high ball like Harvin can.

Hands:  As good as Harvin's speed is, his hands are his best asset.  He does not have large baskets for mitts, but is perfectly capable of looking the ball in and securing it before heading upfield.  He looks very natural plucking the ball out of the air and even though he drifts on long patterns, he will make proper body adjustments to settle under those throws.  Harvin almost never uses his body to make the play.

Blocking Ability:  Harvin is not going to frighten anyone, but he is a pester-type that will occupy a defensive back at the line of scrimmage.  He is a decent crack blocker who does a good job of firing low to take out the defender's legs.  He is an effective open-field cutter because of his ability to attack the defender low and use his hands to mirror and sustain.

Compares to:  Eric Metcalf, ex-San Diego/Cleveland -- It is hard to find a present day comparison to Harvin among NFL players.  Some compare him to the Saints' Reggie Bush, but he is not really much of a returner and is a better big play threat than the New Orleans multi-purpose back.  Harvin has the vision and moxie that Metcalf showed, as both are fearless going for the ball.  He might not be the greatest route runner, especially getting to the deep ball, but on bubble and slip screens he is a fan favorite, as he can turn those short throws into big gains better than any other player in this draft.

OVERALL GRADE:  7.44

Dave-Te Thomas makes it clear that Harvin is an exceptional inside receiver, probably the kind of receiver who would really excel in the slot for the Colts.  He's fearless, has the athletic ability to weave through defenders in traffic and the burst in his breaks to leave defenders behind him to make catches on the run, even in traffic, and the vision to find seams that allow him to make big plays.  A big play threat slot receiver is what teams will likely get with Harvin.  The biggest question mark of all about Harvin is if he can stay healthy long enough to reach his potential in the NFL and produce regularly on an NFL team, during its long (and potentially extending) season.

Another Scouting Report - FFToolbox.com
And Another Scouting Report - WalterFootball.com


Hakeem Nicks - North Carolina

Photo
2008 Season Highlights
2009 Skills Competition

6'1", 212 lbs.
4.51 40 Yard Dash, 4.43 20 Yard Shuttle, 6.96 3-Cone Drill
21 Bench Reps, 36 Inch Vertical Jump

SENIOR SEASON STATS

68 Receptions, 1,222 Receiving Yards, 12 TDs (18 Yd/Avg.)
5 Rushes, 34 Rushing Yards, 1 TD (6.8 Yd/Avg.)
7 KR, 134 Yards

INJURIES

2006 - Sat out a game v. South Florida on 10/18 with a high-ankle sprain.
2007 - Missed part of the second half v. South Carolina on 10/13 with a high-ankle sprain.

ANALYSIS

NFLDraftScout, TFYDraft.com

Strengths: 

Passes the eyeball test.  good initial quickness off the snap.  Good strength and lateral agility to fight through press coverage.  Sneaky downfield speed.  Good burst out of his breaks to generate separation, especially on slants.  Rare body control for a player of his size.  Can contort his body in space to make the spectacular reception.  Sticky hands.  Can snatch out of the air or absorb with his body when he feels an impending big hit.  Knows where the sidelines, down markers and, most important, end zone are.  Good height and leaping ability for the fade.  Rare strength, balance and agility to turn short and intermediate catches into long gains.  Good vision to cut back against the grain.  Improved with each year of experience.  Might just be scratching the surface of his potential.

Large, physically gifted pass catcher who plays much faster than his forty time.  Very athletic, easily adjusts to the errant pass, and makes a lot of difficult receptions.  Gets vertical in a crowd, exposes himself to the big hit, but comes down with the ball.  Displays quickness into breaks, comes back to the pass and gets separation from defenders.  Extends and offers the quarterback a nice target.  Quickly transitions from making the catch to running after the reception.  Effectively uses his frame to shield away defenders and protect the pass. Consistently makes the reception with his hands and keeps the play in bounds.

Nicks sounds like some kind of Wayne/Harrison hybrid to me.  He's does not have blazing speed but plays faster than his time speed suggests (Wayne).  He has the body control and hands to make amazing catches and knows where the sidelines, first down markers and end zone are when he catches the football (Harrison/Wayne).  He also has the vision to know when to break from his route and come back to the ball, presenting his QB with a target when he needs a release quickly (Harrison).

Weaknesses:

Questionable deep speed.  May lack the top-end speed to challenge defensive backs over the top, allowing savvy NFL defenders to close off the crossing routes on which Nicks generated much of his success.  One of three legitimate NFL-caliber receivers for the Tar Heels, and capitalized on defenses spread thin.

Not overly quick releasing off the line into routes.  Not a true speedster and will have difficulty getting downfield separation at the next level.  Does not display consistently soft hands.

Nicks will not beat defensive backs in an all out race on a fly route.  However, that sounds similar to Harrison, who beat people not so much by being clearly faster in a straight-line but by running such precise routes that defenders would bite on fakes and Harrison would leave them trying to catch up.  His lack of quickness off the line makes him more of a possession receiver than a big-play guy.  That's not to say that he can't make big plays, great catches, etc... just that his MO isn't the highlight reel 70 yard runs after the catch.

PROFESSIONAL SCOUTTING REPORT - Dave-Te' Thomas - CBSSports.com

Dave-Te Thomas Biographical Information

Athletic Ability:  Nicks lacks blazing speed, but it is rare to see him struggle vs. the jam as he has more than enough power and good hand usage to get a clean crisp release off the snap.  He shows excellent balance and crisp cutting ability, demonstrating the agility and flexibility to make adjustments in his route without having to throttle down.  He has very good body control, doing a nice job of settling in the soft areas and displays the vision and burst to come back when the pocket is pressured.

Football Sense:  Nicks only needs normal reps to learn and retain plays.  He shows good awareness and instincts and understands the game and coverages.  He adjusts well on the move and has no problems dealing with classroom work.  When he gets open, he knows what his job is - to move the chains.

Character:  Nicks is high respected, considered a good guy and is highly recommended by his coaches.  There are no off-field issues or skeletons hidden in his closet.  He has a quiet, yet friendly personality and is a self-start with confidence in his ability to get the job done. 

Competitiveness:  Nicks is a good competitor with a strong desire to come out victorious.  He is the type who thrives getting the ball in his hands in pressure situations.  He has enough competitiveness for the position and plays with toughness, competing on every down.  He plays at an even tempo and rarely gets rattled on the field.

Work Habits:  Nicks applies himself in practices and games.  He is a self-starter in the training room and an adequate student.  He is a team leader and takes pride in that role, but is not the rah-rah type who needs to shout to get his point across.

ATHLETIC REPORT:  GRADE:  7.36

Quickness:  Nicks shows good quickness once he builds up in his stride.  He has deceptive speed to eat up the cushion and looks very smooth getting into his routes.  He compensates for a lack of blazing speed with his excellent body control, balance and agility to gain valid yardage after the catch.

Route Running:  Nicks is never going to be able to generate the explosion needed to simply separate, but he is a precise route runner who comes out of his breaks cleanly, doing a nice job of generating YAC when used on slants.  For a player of his size, he gets in and out of cuts so well, thanks to his ability to drop and sink his weight.  He is shifty in the open and uses solid head and shoulder fakes to con his man on his patterns.  He shows the vision and balance to come back for the ball on option routes.  His savvy moves usually gets cornerbacks to come out of their backpedal and commit too early.  He gets a very good push off the defender with his hand usage.

Separation Ability:  Nicks' footwork is well above average when trying to separate.  He uses his power well to get a clean release and while he is not going to gobble up the cushion on every deep pattern, he has enough of a short-area burst to settle in the soft spots.

Ball Concentration:  Nicks does a nice job of maintaining focus on the ball in flight.  Because he will not be able to suddenly run under every ball, maintaining position and tracking the ball is what he does best to compensate.

Ball Adjustment:  Nicks is a contortionist, as he is always twisting and turning his frame to get into position to make the catch.  His long arms let him adjust to the balls thrown down low and he has the extension to get to the high throws outside of his frame.  You can see on film that he will simply go over people to get to the ball.

Hands:  What separates Nicks from the other two North Carolina receivers eligible in the draft is his natural hands.  He is a natural pass catcher and keeps on getting better.  His soft hands let him snatch and pluck.  He also makes very good body adjustments to deliver the over-the-shoulder grabs.  His concentration skills are above average and it is rare to see him drop the ball due to a lack of focus.  He does a fine job of catching away from his body and is fearless going for the ball in a crowd.

Blocking Ability:  This is a hard area to gauge Nicks in.  Whether it is a lack of desire or poor technique, it is rare to see him throw a block for a teammate in the open field.  He will face up with aggression at the line of scrimmage, but does not always give total effort.  Has to become more involved in this area.

Compares to:  Roddy White, Atlanta -- Actually, Hicks looks more like a smaller version of Keyshawn Johnson.  He has very good power and runs precise routes, displaying some of the best hands in this draft.  He won't be a cornerback on deep patterns using pure speed, but he's a savvy route runner who is also light on his feet for a player his size.

OVERALL GRADE:  7.33

Nicks has the hands and strength facing press coverage that might make him a bit more capable of separating from physical DBs.  What makes him an intriguing prospect for the Colts is his field vision, body control, route running and excellent hands which tend to indicate that Nicks will be successful in the NFL.  The things a WR needs most in the NFL are already well developed in Nicks.  That's not to say he wouldn't benefit from continued development but he works hard and may yet have an upside to be a strong receiver as a professional.

Another Scouting Report - FFToolbox.com

COMPARISON:

The easiest way to break down the comparisons between Harvin and Nicks is to differentiate between a speedy, game-breaking, big-play receiver who's small stature can make him susceptible to injury but also gives him the World Class agility to be as elusive as any prospect coming into this year's draft against a guy who has more size and strength, along with hands and vision to be an exceptional possession receiver but will not bring the kind of "game-breaking" ability which will cause opponents to realize that he could break a long run after the catch at any moment.  One WR is more suited to filling the slot position and using his breaks to catch shorter passes which he can break into longer gains.  The other uses consistent route running, strength in press coverage and body control to excel in slants and come-back routes, as well as fade routes on the goal line.  Both players should be solid contributors.  Which player is better? Heh.

YOU DECIDE