Who wants to play coulda, woulda, shoulda

by shake n bake on Apr 6, 2009 4:49 PM EDT

Disclaimer: This is an example of how one single random event can dramatically alter the course of a season. I acknowledge that the conclusion is built on a mountain of (very plausible) assumptions, which add up to an unlikely final result.

In the 2nd quarter of Indianapolis' week 3 game against Jacksonville, the Colts offense was driving at midfield, up 7 to 3. On 1st and 10, Peyton threw short right to Marvin Harrison. With the ball in the air Jags CB Rashean Mathis grabbed a handful of Marvin's jersey and used it to pull himself in front of Marvin for the interception. No flag was thrown and Mathis returned the pick 61 yards for a TD, making the score 10 to 7 Jags. Jacksonville would win that game on a last second field goal. 7 points off the board for the Jags likely would have been the difference.

Indy lost the division by one game and a tiebreaker that would have been reversed if Indy had beaten the Jags that game.

That would gave given Indy the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs and a first round bye.

They, instead of the Titans would have faced the Ravens, who Indy crushed in their regular season meeting.

Then they, instead of the Ravens would have faced the Steelers at home, who Indy beat on the road, for the AFC title

Then they, instead of the Steelers would have played the Cardinals, who the Steelers beat, in the Superbowl.

So, a missed call in week 3 cost Indy a Superbowl victory.

Disclaimer: This has been an example of how one single random event can dramatically alter the course of a season. I acknowledge that the conclusion is built on a mountain of (very plausible) assumptions which add up to an unlikely final result.

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SOLD!

I’m sold and a COMPLETELY agree…

Self-administered mental torture is always so much fun during the offseason. awesome.

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Apr 6, 2009 5:05 PM EDT reply actions

+1

by LovinBlue on Apr 6, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

by MarkFive05 on Apr 6, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions

plus...

if they drive for the score there to make it 14-3 instead of 10-7 and win, they aren’t desperate the next week and probably don’t beat Houston. End result is the same.

The ridiculous sequence of events leading to a Titans win against Baltimore the following week played into the division’s final result a lot more than anything the Colts did. Though all a Raven win that week would’ve meant would be that the week 17 game was meaningful and we didn’t have the pleasure of facing Vince Young…

by willyduer on Apr 6, 2009 5:38 PM EDT reply actions

My own personal demon

is the playoff game…I know I should just let it go, but I am struggling. Those F-in refs….

Cause I know we could have beat the Titans, Steelers, Ravens and Cardinals…

“3rd and 2, 3rd and 2” ugh.

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Apr 6, 2009 5:41 PM EDT reply actions

Also,

keep in mind that if we had won the Jags game, the Titans would not have the division clenched when we faced them in Week 16 (or 17, depending on whether you are counting by “Colts weeks” or “NFL Weeks”), which means that they would have tried against us, which very well could have meant another loss, which would put us back at #5.

I would be interested in a “coulda, woulda, shoulda” for us drafting Ryan Leaf instead of Peyton back in ’98.

Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.

Man, I need a life...

Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: In my bedroom, I have 3 footballs with both Mike Vanderjagt's and Gilbert Gardner's signatures on them. Interesting story. Maybe I'll tell you about it sometime.

by Cassieper on Apr 6, 2009 7:48 PM EDT reply actions

there was actually

no chance of Polian drafting Leaf. All the drama leading up to that draft was just rumors and speculation. Leaf had some good number over a season of play. Manning was good more than just one year at Tennessee.

by BlueVol03 on Apr 6, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Not my point.

My scenario is IF Polian actually did draft him. If you just can’t play along with that, imagine that in ‘98, my dad really loved Ryan Leaf, went up to Polian, and blackmailed him into drafting Leaf. My comment wasn’t a question over the chances of Polian drafting Leaf back then; it was a question over the consequences for the Colts (and the league) in doing so.

Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.

Man, I need a life...

by Cassieper on Apr 6, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions

The Colts would have 15 years of asskicking coming

Courtesy of Peyton. He said so himself.

by Marik on Apr 7, 2009 5:41 AM EDT up reply actions

It’s a funny old game, football.

by eltharion_doa on Apr 6, 2009 8:23 PM EDT reply actions

Why do you think we all love it so much :-)

Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.

Man, I need a life...

by Cassieper on Apr 6, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Because we love John Mellencamp?

I know I wouldn’t watch football without those truck commercials.

by eltharion_doa on Apr 6, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions

ALSOOOO...

The Keiaho pass interference (last Jags drive, led to game winning FG) was a big mistake by the referees! He was looking at (and for) the ball all the way! He didn’t even saw the WR…! I was so pissed off then…

by fpacheco on Apr 6, 2009 8:37 PM EDT reply actions

Playoffs?? Are you kidding me? Playoffs???

I would rather play this game to discuss either the ‘03 loss to the Pats at home (stuffed at the goal line) resulting in an away game in the AFCCG, the loss of Cornelius Bennett in the final game of the ’99 season (possibly cost us a SB visit) and, the most obvious, Nick Harpers wife/Vanderjagt’s right foot and so many other things in ’05.

Going back to ’99, if they had somehow gotten to and won the SB that year can you imagine how this team would be regarded now?? Possibly winning in ’03, ’05 AND ’06 too?

I’m going to go smother myself now.

by AceOfSpades on Apr 6, 2009 10:54 PM EDT reply actions

And all of it turned out how God wanted it

Isn’t he wonderful?

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by Tkopa on Apr 7, 2009 10:58 PM EDT reply actions

always a great game

surreal to be teal

by Surteal on Apr 7, 2009 11:33 PM EDT reply actions

How does Peyton only have one ring... I've never seen a bigger choke artist in my life.

He had one of the best football minds, like an offensive coordinator. He has a great arm, a great o-line, great running game, great receivers, but nerves of cotton.

The guy consistently cracks under pressure. It’s sad to see. Bring back JEFF GEORGE!!

Hopefully you guys realize he’s through and you missed your window for a dynasty. It’s gone. Start drafting for the future, because you won’t win with peyton again. You’ll get 10+ wins each year, but you’ll never see the super bowl ever again. Sorry. :(

The End Is Nigh... www.infowars.com

by silencecs on Apr 8, 2009 2:10 AM EDT reply actions

says the fan of the team which went from playoffs to the division cellar

project much?

I got Summer hatin' on me cuz I'm hotter than the sun. Spring hatin' on me cuz I ain't never sprung
Winter hatin' on me cuz I'm colder than Y'all. And I will never, I will never, I will never Fall.
-Lil Wayne, Mr. Carter

by shake n bake on Apr 8, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions