What will the 09 D look like?
by shake n bake on May 23, 2009 6:16 PM EDT
in Analysis
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With the change from Dungy to Caldwell and from Meeks to Coyer there will be changes defensively. The question is, How big of a change will it be?
The comments from the organization and the lack of a purge on the defensive side of the ball this offseason both set the upper limit on the change. The Colts will still be running a Tampa-2 with speed and quickness the primary player traits. The (pretty safe) assumption that a defense any smaller and more speed focused wouldn't be viable in the NFL sets the opposite boundary. The Colts D will be a small speedy Tampa-2, somewhere between the Dungy era Ds and a defense like the Bears who run a base Tampa-2, but change up the scheme much more often than the Colts have in the past.
We won't know for certain where in that range they will fall, and likely won't know until they've played a few regular season games, but there are some key positions and players to watch as OTAs, Training Camp and Preseason develop. SAM, UT and NT are the undecided starting spots on the D right now. How they are filled will go a long way towards determining what flavor of T-2 they'll be running.
If it's a big change, the D will look like...
SAM: Phillip Wheeler (6'2" 240lbs) or Adam Seward (6'2" 250lbs) will win the starting spot over Tyjuan Hagler (6'0 236lbs) and Freddy Keiaho (5'11" 226lbs).
UT: Fili Moala will be the fixture with the smaller Eric Foster and Keyunta Dawson pushed into specialist roles or off the roster in favor of bigger DTs.
NT: Terrence Taylor will see significant time and will play at a weight on the upper end of the spectrum he was listed at pre-draft (305-325). Antonio Johnson will be the other main role player and both Ed Johnson and Daniel Muir will make the roster.
Scheme: the LB blitz will no longer be a vague legend in Indy. Wheeler, a top blitzer and former DE in college, will be a 5th rusher regularly, with Gary Brackett and Clint Session at the least chipping in some run blitzes.
If it's a change in personnel not scheme the D will look like...
SAM: Unless Wheeler takes major strides in cover skills, Hagler or Keiaho will win the remaining LB spot.
UT: Eric Foster and Keyunta Dawson will be the regulars, with Moala only playing UT in clear run situations if at all.
NT: Moala becomes another in a long line of athletic NTs employed by the Colts, spending most of his time playing the 1-tech. Daniel Muir has little to no chance of making the roster, while Ed and Antonio Johnson will be fighting for 1 job.
Scheme: Meet the new DC, same as the old DC. Tampa-2 'til you're blue in the face, with the cover-3 coming in only when teams are determined to grind down the clock.
I expect the D will look like...
SAM: Wheeler and Hagler battle it out for one spot, good shot to split time if Wheeler still isn't ready in coverage, Wheeler for blitzing, Hagler for coverage, both are pretty well suited for run D.
UT: Eric Foster starts, Moala shifts between the two DT spots playing UT on some run downs and NT on most passing downs, Dawson is a 3rd down specialist.
NT: Ed Johnson reclaims his starting spot (if he stays out of trouble) Fili Moala is the 3rd down NT (or starter if Ed blows chance #4), with Terrence Taylor limited to goal line situations. Mookie cut if Ed stays on the straight and narrow, Muir cut for sure.
Scheme: Plenty of T-2, but Wheeler will bring some added heat at times, the extra bulk at NT and the option to go big at UT will force teams out of the grind it down strategy.
Players to watch
- Fili Moala, where he plays, and who he plays over will tell a LOT about where the D is going
- Phillip Wheeler, more about usage than whether he plays (since his PT will likely be tied to how much he progresses in coverage). If Wheeler spends the summer chasing Sorgi and Painter around then we can expect Coyer to bring some added pressure at times.
- Terrence Taylor, starting NT, situational player, or project?
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I expect to see the same T-2 system
but with quite a few tweaks due to the personal we brought in. For one, I expect that the BSBD or Cover 3 defense to be used very seldom this year with the new NT additions to the line. The only time I expect to see that defense, is when we are playing a team that deploys something like what Shannahan did the last time we played Denver: three TE set, pound the rock. I see more blitzes on first and second down from LB’s and im pretty sure Coyer will try and find a way maximize Bob Sanders by blitzing him on occasion. Meeks tried it a few times in ’07 (albeit against he Titans only) and it seemed to work pretty well.
Overall though, I expect the same base T-2 where the Colts deploy 4 d-linemen to rush the passer and the rest of the D drops back into coverage. There will be blitzing, but Coyer said he wont do it as much as he did in Denver since he now has pass rushers up front.
by metal_militia on May 23, 2009 6:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
My expectations are pretty the same as yours. I expect that we will see many different looks throughout the season, though.
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by J-Gao on May 23, 2009 8:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Disagree about the Johnsons
I figure Ed and Antonio will be the base DTs. Moala will spend his first year subbing in for spell reasons, and Taylor will play run downs only. Either Foster OR Dawson will get cut, but not both of them. Muir will get cut for sure.
As for LB, I figure it’s Wheeler at SOLB, Session at WOLB and Brackett at MLB. Since Keiahou played MLB his first two years, he’s the primary backup there, with Hagler being the outside backup. Depending on how many o-linemen they need to keep, Seward may have to struggle for a roster spot when it’s all said and done.
I figure it’s T-2 again. Can’t go wrong with this personnel. I do agree that there will be some more blitz packages thrown in, and I figure there will be less Bob Sanders, as the DTs may be able to hold the run more effectively.
"You're hitting the wrong person. Don't you know you're hitting Ron Artest?"
by LukeNukem on May 23, 2009 9:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
which Johnson changes positions?
they’ve both only played NT, and I don’t think either are athletic enough to be close to the kind of UT we’ve seen before.
by shake n bake on May 23, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ed at UT
I figure he gets a chance to prove he’s fast enough to play 3-tech, since he’d probably only have to play it about 40-50% of the time anyway. UT rotation should include Johnson, Moala, Brock and Foster/Dawson/Grady (or two of those last three guys, and no Brock…Brock could play exclusively at run/base DE with this DT depth). NT rotation should include the other Johnson, Moala and Taylor. I figure Ed is the Johnson who could play UT because he’s a little smaller and lighter than Mookie, but you’re right, I don’t know if he’s fast and athletic enough. This team does so much subbing, I really don’t think it’ matters. I just want them to find a way to get the two best DTs on the field as much as they can, and right now (assuming both are in shape) my feeling is that the Johnsons are the two best. Moala will certainly eventually be better than one, or both, and is athletic and big enough to play both positions. But for now, give me both Johnsons.
"You're hitting the wrong person. Don't you know you're hitting Ron Artest?"
by LukeNukem on May 24, 2009 7:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My take
First off, solid article shake.
NT is Mookie Johnson with Fili Moala at three technique DT. Dwight Freeney and Raheem Brock start at DE. Third and long situations will feature Fili and Brock at DT with Dwight and Robert Mathis at DE. Players clearly on the bubble: Daniel Muir, Keyunta Dawson. Ed Johnson will play NT, but will also switch to other DT spot in rotation. Foster is a question mark.
SAM is Philip Wheeler, unless he shows up to camp and just plays like dog meat. He has potential. Hagler has pretty much maxed out his. Session and Brackett are locked in at other two LB spots.
In secondary, look for Powers to push Jennings. Hughes and Coe are on life support with this roster.
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by BigBlueShoe on May 23, 2009 9:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
only thing I really disagree with there is
Brock moving inside on 3rd downs instead of bringing Foster into the game. A fresh Foster would be better than Raheem Brock after playing the run downs at DE.
by shake n bake on May 23, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
right on pretty muck how i see it playing out.
I love the thougt of Freeny, Mathis, Brock and Moala in there at the same time on passing downs. Mad speed on the out side and, big long dudes you can’t throw over, you have to throw around comming up the middle. If I were an offensive line coach, I know that group would scare the crap out of me.
Defense if more important then breathing.
by BetterD on May 25, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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