Will he stay or will he go: Gary Brackett

via www.colts.com

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Our next player in the "will he stay or will he go" series is MLB Gary Brackett.  Brackett is scheduled to become a free agent at the end of the 2009 season, and could be one of the biggest LB free agents on the market if he makes it that far.

Over the past few years, Brackett has been an important cog in the success of the Colts pass defense.  If you ask coaches and players around the league, you'll be hard pressed to find many MLB who have the ability to come up and stuff the run just as well as they can drop back and cover receivers.  

Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2003, Brackett was thought by many coaches and GMs to be too small to play the position.  Being 5'11", many thought he would become engulfed by offensive linemen and not be able to see over players to read quarterbacks' eyes.  He quickly dispelled that theory in his first season as a starter.

From 2003-2004, he was a special teams player and backup LB, where he racked up 86 tackles. He quickly showed he had a knack for making plays, finishing with one interception in 2003 and two in 2004. He is also the captain of the defense who wears the microphone and makes all the calls and audibles for the defense.

In 2005, he earned the the starting Mike position, and has never looked back since.  His leadership, agility, intelligence, and his ability to drop back into coverage are just some of the reasons why the Colts pass defense has been so great in recent years.  In addition to this however, Brackett is equally efficient in sticking his nose in the line and sniffing out ballcarriers.

In the four seasons starting at MLB from 2005-2008, he has started 58 of the 64 regular season games racking up 516 tackles, 289 solo, seven interceptions for 178 return yards, 14 passes defensed, five FF, and 2 FR, and led the team in tackles two of these years.  In the postseason during these four seasons, he started 6 of 7 games at MLB (he missed the 2008 playoff game against San Diego due to a broken fibula), racking up 35 total tackles, 27 solo, and 2 FF.

While Brackett was out with his broken fibula, the Colts defense obviously suffered without him.  Though statistics do not really show a significant dropoff in his absence, MLB Buster Davis really did not prove he could step up and perform at the high level that Brackett typically does.   The most notable loss was during the Wild-Card loss against San Diego when Antonio Gates was pretty much unstoppable gaining several key first downs in the middle of the field, where Brackett would normally have been.

Brackett is due $2.415 million for the 2009 season, and will be turning 30 next May, though he doesn't appear to be slowing down.  By all indications, he will be back in the starting lineup in 2009 without any complications from his injury. 

The Colts biggest question mark on the team is at the linebacker position, and assuming that he returns to his pre-injury form, the loss of Brackett would be ENORMOUS.  I don't think that there's anyway that Polian could let him go, but examining Polians past history with resigning LBs does not make me optimistic. The only optimism I have is that we know Polian is a big fan of Brackett and understands the importance he has to holding the defense together, combined with the fact that the Colts signed free agent LB Adam Seward and re-signed Freddie Keiaho. 

The question is how much is he going to be worth when he becomes a free agent. The Saints re-signed Jonathan Vilma to a five-year deal worth $34 million, and while Colts fans may make the argument that he's just as good as Vilma, if not better, he may be viewed by some as not quite the caliber player that Vilma is.  Add his age when he signs his next deal into the mix, and we might start seeing agents and GMs way off from each other in terms of agreeing to a deal.  

As with Antoine Bethea, I REALLY don't want to see him hit the market, but with the difficult decisions looming salary-cap wise, I'm afraid that it may not be an option unless we start cutting some people or re-negotiating contracts.  One thing is for certain, whatever he's worth monetarily, he's worth twice that on the field.