First Round Quarterbacks - Stats don't Lie

by stuart0908 on May 4, 2009 6:12 PM EDT

So after reading about Matt Stafford and how he has already had a few stumbles in training camp (which is expected), it got me to thinking about how often quarterbacks drafted in the first round really succeed.

Of course we all know that it is a rare occurrence that a quarterback comes along and completely destroy opposing defenses, but the temptation to draft quarterback with the talent to do just that is something that many GMs cannot pass up.

Drafting a quarterback in the first round is a bit like gambling. We all compare quarterbacks to the next coming of Dan Marino or Peyton Manning, but most of the time, teams end up with someone more similar to Ryan Leaf or Heath Shuler.

So what's the deal? Year after year, why do people continually invest 20+ million dollars in guaranteed money to someone who will not likely be on the team five years from now?

In this article, I will take a look at the odds of drafting a successful quarterback in the first round.

Eli knows what it's like to feel the pressure. Luckily, he was able to overcome his misfortunes and deal with the stress of being a first round pick.

Since the 1970 AFL-NFL Merger, there have been 78 quarterbacks drafted in the first round.

Of these 78 QBs, there are several Hall of Fame candidates such as Dan Marino, John Elway, Jim Kelly, and Phil Simms. But amongst the short line of great QBs is a lonnnnng list of people that either never lived up to their potential (Kerry Collins) and players that just plain stunk (Ryan Leaf).

This is the complete list of QBs drafted in round one from 1970 to 2009 along with team they were drafted by, career completion percentage, QB rating, TD/INT stats, and pro-bowls and Super Bowls won. (Just so you know, I did not give them the super bowl win if they were a backup). I also went through and analyzed them and decided whether they were considered a bust or not. I think I was fairly honest about whether or not they are considered a bust, only labeling them that if they never really won consistently or didn't stay with the team for longer than about four or five years.

I also took into consideration many other factors, and I'm sure there may be some disagreement amongst players who are either labeled busts or are not labeled busts, but for the general idea of the article, we are looking merely at the statistics, not individual performances.

Year	Name	Drafted By	QB Rating	Comp. %	TDs	INTs	Pass Yards	PBs	SB Wins	Bust?
1970	Terry Bradshaw	Steelers	70.9%	51.9%	212	210	27,989	3	4 (2 MVPs)	no
1970	Mike Phipps	Browns	52.6%	49.2%	55	108	10,566	0	0	yes

1971	Jim Plunkitt	Patriots	67.5%	52.5%	164	198	25,882	0	2 (2 MVPs)	no
1971	Archie Manning	Saints	67.1%	55.2%	125	173	23,911	2	0	no
1971	Dan Pastorini	Oilers	59.1%	50.9%	103	161	18,515	1	0	yes

1972	Jerry Tagge	Packers	44.2%	48.4%	3	17	1,583	0	0	yes
1972	John Reaves	Eagles	51.4%	46.4%	17	34	3,617	0	0	yes

1973	Bert Jones	Colts	78.2%	56.1%	124	101	18,190	1	0	no

1975	Steve Bartkowski	Falcons	75.4%	55.9%	156	144	24,124	2	0	no

1976	Richard Todd	Jets	67.6%	54.3%	124	161	20,610	0	0	yes

1977	Steve Pisarkiewiscz	Cardinals	49.4%	44.8%	3	7	804	0	0	yes
1977	Tommy Kramer	Vikings	72.8%	55.1%	159	158	24,777	1	0	no

1978	Doug Williams	Buccaneers	69.4%	49.5%	100	93	16,998	0	1 (MVP)	no

1979	Jack Thompson	Bengals	63.4%	53.1%	33	45	5,315	0	0	yes
1979	Phil Simms	Giants	78.5%	55.4%	199	157	33,462	2	1 (MVP)	no
1979	Steve Fuller	Chiefs	70.1%	56.8%	28	41	7,156	0	0	yes

1980	Marc Wilson	Raiders	67.7%	52.1%	86	102	14,391	0	0	yes
1980	Mark Malone	Steelers	61.9%	50.9%	60	81	10,175	0	0	yes

1981	Rich Campbell	Packers	38.8%	45.6%	3	9	386	0	0	yes

1982	Art Schlichter	Colts	42.6%	45.0%	3	11	1,006	0	0	yes
1982	Jim McMahon	Bears	78.2%	58.0%	100	90	18,148	1	1 (MVP)	no

1983	John Elway	Colts	79.9%	56.9%	300	226	51,475	9	2 (MVP)	no
1983	Todd Blackledge	Chiefs	60.2%	48.1%	29	38	5,286	0	0	yes
1983	Jim Kelly	Bills	84.4%	60.1%	237	175	35,467	4	0	no
1983	Tony Eason	Patriots	79.7%	58.2%	61	51	11,142	0	0	yes
1983	Ken O'Brien	Jets	80.4%	58.6%	128	98	25,094	2	0	no
1983	Dan Marino	Dolphins	86.4%	59.4%	420	252	61,361	9	0	no

1986	Jim Everett	Oilers	78.6%	57.7%	203	175	34,837	1	0	no
1986	Chuck Long	Lions	64.5%	54.5%	19	28	3,747	0	0	yes

1987	Vinny Testaverde	Buccaneers	75.0%	56.5%	275	267	46,233	2	0	no
1987	Kelly Stoufer	Cardinals	54.5%	51.5%	7	19	2,333	0	0	yes
1987	Chris Miller	Falcons	74.9%	54.6%	123	102	19,230	0	0	yes
1987	Jim Harbaugh	Bears	77.6%	58.8%	129	117	26,288	1	0	no

1989	Troy Aikman	Cowboys	81.6%	61.5%	164	141	32,945	6	3 (MVP)	no

1990	Jeff George	Colts	80.4%	57.9%	154	113	27,602	0	0	yes
1990	Andre Ware	Lions	63.5%	51.6%	5	8	1,112	0	0	yes

1991	Dan McGwire	Seahawks	52.3%	50.0%	2	6	745	0	0	yes
1991	Todd Marinovich	Raiders	66.4%	50.7%	8	9	1,345	0	0	yes

1992	David Klinger	Bengals	65.1%	54.2%	16	22	3,994	0	0	yes
1992	Tommy Maddox	Broncos	72.4%	57.2%	48	54	8,087	0	0	yes

1993	Drew Bledsoe	Patriots	77.1%	57.2%	251	206	44,611	4	1	no
1993	Rick Mirer	Seahawks	63.5%	53.3%	50	76	11,969	0	0	yes

1994	Heath Shuler	Redskins	54.3%	49.2%	15	33	3,691	0	0	yes
1994	Trent Dilfer	Buccaneers	70.2%	55.5%	113	129	20,518	1	1	yes

1995	Steve McNair	Oilers	82.8%	60.1%	174	119	31,304	3	0	no
1995	Kerry Collins	Panthers	73.8%	55.7%	186	179	37,393	2	0	yes

1997	Jim Druckenmiller	49ers	29.2%	40.4%	1	4	239	0	0	yes

1998	Peyton Manning	Colts	94.7%	64.4%	333	165	45,628	9	1 (MVP)	no
1998	Ryan Leaf	Chargers	50.0%	48.4%	14	36	3,666	0	0	yes

1999	Tim Couch	Browns	75.1%	59.8%	64	67	11,131	0	0	yes
1999	Donovan McNabb	Eagles	85.9%	58.9%	194	90	29,320	5	0	no
1999	Akili Smith	Bengals	52.8%	46.6%	5	13	2,212	0	0	yes
1999	Daunte Culpepper	Vikings	89.0%	31.4%	146	100	23,208	3	0	yes
1999	Cade McNown	Bears	67.7%	54.6%	16	19	3,111	0	0	yes

2000	Chad Pennington	Jets	90.6%	66.0%	101	62	17,391	0	0	yes

2001	Michael Vick	Falcons	75.7%	53.8%	71	52	11,505	3	0	yes

2002	David Carr	Texans	74.9%	59.7%	64	70	14,141	0	0	yes
2002	Joey Harrington	Lions	69.4%	31.3%	79	85	14,693	0	0	yes
2002	Patrick Ramsey	Redskins	74.9%	24.7%	35	30	5,930	0	0	yes

2003	Carson Palmer	Bengals	88.9%	63.7%	107	67	15,630	2	0	no
2003	Byron Leftwich	Jaguars	80.3%	58.6%	54	38	9,624	0	0	yes
2003	Kyle Boller	Ravens	71.9%	56.9%	45	44	7,846	0	0	yes
2003	Rex Grossman	Bears	70.2%	54.2%	33	35	6,146	0	0	yes

2004	Eli Manning	Chargers	76.1%	55.9%	98	74	14,623	1	1 (MVP)	no
2004	Philip Rivers	Giants	92.9%	62.3%	78	36	10,697	1	0	no
2004	Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers	89.4%	62.4%	101	69	14,974	1	2	no
2004	J.P. Losman	Bills	75.5%	59.3%	33	34	6,211	0	0	yes

2005	Alex Smith	49ers	63.5%	54.4%	19	31	4,679	0	0	yes
2005	Aaron Rodgers	Packers	91.8%	63.2%	29	14	4,367	0	0	no
2005	Jason Campbell	Redskins	80.4%	59.7%	35	20	7,242	0	0	maybe

2006	Vince Young	Titans	68.8%	57.3%	22	32	4,964	1	0	probably
2006	Matt Leinart	Cardinals	71.7%	55.8%	14	17	3,458	0	0	maybe
2006	Jay Cutler	Broncos	87.1%	62.5%	54	37	9,024	1	0	no

2007	JaMarcus Russell	Raiders	73.9%	53.9%	15	12	2,796	0	0	maybe
2007	Brady Quinn	Browns	65.8%	49.5%	2	2	563	0	0	maybe

2008	Matt Ryan	Falcons	87.7%	61.1%	16	11	3,440	0	0	no
2008	Joe Flacco	Ravens	80.3%	60.0%	14	12	2,971	0	0	maybe

2009	Matt Stafford	Lions								?
2009	Mark Sanchez	Jets								?
2009	Josh Freeman	Buccaneers								?

After analyzing this list, if you do the math, you come up with a success rate of about 35%. THIRTY-FIVE PERCENT! I don't know about you, but if someone told me that there was a 35% chance my $20 million dollars (or more) would be thrown in the garbage, I think I'd keep it in my pocket. Of course, we should look at the amount of success quarterbacks selected in the later rounds have before we can do a valid comparison of how much of a bargain it would be.

But the truth is that some GMs are willing to put their money in the pot and bet it all in case he does turn into the next Peyton Manning. Hey, it worked for Bill Polian right?

Best Drafters

1. Colts - Bert Jones, John Elway, and Peyton Manning. Nuff Said

2. Falcons - If you don't count Michael Vick as a bust (which I did), then they have a success rate of 75%.

Worst Drafters

1. Bengals - The Bengals have ~~wasted~~ selected a QB in the first round of the draft FOUR times since 1970, with only Carson Palmer being worth the investment.

2. Lions - All three first round QBs have floundered in Detroit. Let's hope Stafford can change their luck.

Other Interesting Observations

The LA/St. Louis Rams have never selected a QB in the first round.
The Detroit Lions have misfired on every first round QB selection. Statistically speaking, Matt Stafford has to be their successful QB, right?
First round QBs don't have much luck in Ohio. Between the Bengals and the Browns, there have been 7 first round QBs drafted since 1970, and so far Carson Palmer is the only one has shown he was worth the investment. (Brady Quinn is still too green to judge).
The Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, and Miami Dolphins have never missed. Troy Aikman, Archie Manning, and Dan Marino remain their only first round QB selections.
I hope the Houston Texans learned their lesson after David Carr, they have two or three more bad picks before they should find success.
The NY Giants selected Phil Simms and Philip Rivers in the first round (and traded Rivers for Eli). They could potentially have two hall of fame first round QBs.
Only 12 of the first round QBs chosen since 1970 have ever played and won in a Super Bowl. That means only 15% will ever help your team win a Super Bowl. I would be interested in seeing if there are any other positions that would contribute more to winning a Super Bowl.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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Comments

This is really an interesting post!

The things that struck me were:

1) Terry Bradshaw’s TD:INT ratio 1:1 – a little worse, actually.
2) The relatively low QB ratings of the players in the ‘70s and early ’80s – probably attributed to the types of offenses – run happy Os
3) Aikman’s numbers are not much different than Jeff George’s EXCEPT Aikman has more INTs
4) Peyton is the best modern day QB…of course.

This was really cool. I am really surprised by some of these numbers.

Also, I wonder how David Carr would have done had he been allowed to throw the ball to his receivers versus being planted on his behind so much.

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on May 4, 2009 6:45 PM EDT reply actions

as for the lower QB ratings

You’re right in that it’s due to different offenses. However, part of it is just about how QB’s were used differently. Now, I’m only 24 so I’m not speaking from experience, but Dr. Z always talks about how much he hates the QB ratings because of this effect. He says that back in the day QB’s took more risks and were more likely to throw bombs. The west coast offense is designed in a way that automatically leads to higher QB ratings. The number depends highly on completion percentage so throwing a lot more shorter, easier passes leads to a higher rating. Again, this could be all wrong, but that is what Z harps on about a lot.

"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."

by psvirsky on May 4, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah QB Rating is comp% heavy

I can’t remember what the numbers were but someone somewhere broke it down for the bonus’ (bonii?) for TDs, Completions and INTs in terms of yards and the Completion bonus was just silly.

Half the game too lazy
still sleepin' on me
but I'm 'bout to wake 'em
-Lil' Wayne "Fireman"

by shake n bake on May 4, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Interesting read

Good job.

by yellowsnow on May 4, 2009 7:26 PM EDT reply actions

Terrific piece

pretty neat to see the stats on all the first round QBs all in one place. However you look at it, paying over $40 million for an unproven rookie just seems so hard to swallow.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on May 4, 2009 7:31 PM EDT reply actions

Daunte Culpepper?

I don’t see how Culpepper is a bust considering he was a really good quarterback until he had that injury. He had some really great years especially 2004 when he would have been the mvp if Peyton didnt have that amazing year

by indifan02 on May 4, 2009 7:35 PM EDT reply actions

Great post

Besides that great post!

by indifan02 on May 4, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Moss

Culpepper looked good when he was throwing to Moss. So did Brad Johnson and Randall Cunningham in Moss’ rookie campaign. The only place Moss didn’t make the QB shine was in Oakland, and we all understand the deeper issues there. Moss even assisted Tom Brady in having his best statistical season of his career by far, although Tom was a very good QB already. And Cassel even looked good throwing to Moss. Next to Rice, he is the greatest WR to play the game.

Culpepper has looked below average since losing Moss. I would call him a bust for a first round pick.

by coltsfanawalt on May 4, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice to Rice Moss is the greatest WR to play the game?

Selling Marvin a little short aren’t we?

by MarkFive05 on May 5, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions

In My Opinion

Randy Moss career stats

Marvin Harrison career stats

Moss is four and a half years younger and still adding significantly to his career stats. Barring a career ending injury, he will have some great numbers before he is done.

Moss already has more TDs, more catches over twenty yards, more catches over forty yards, more thousand yard plus seasons, as many ten plus touchdown seasons, twice as many fifteen plus touchdown seasons. Of the two, Moss also has the higher yards per reception, the higher yards per game, and the longer “longest reception”. Moss has also thrown two touchdowns and returned a punt for another touchdown, both things that Harrison has never done.

As you can see, Marvin still leads in total receptions, total yards, and first downs. However, he is probably done adding much, if at all, to those numbers (I hope I’m wrong, and that he comes back to the Colts for cheap), while Moss is still compiling. Moss will likely overtake Harrison in yards before this year is over if Marvin is finished. The other categories will take longer, if at all.

In the end, Moss will have more yards and significantly more TDs, again barring a devastating injury. And Moss has never had a Peyton Manning throwing to him. The best he has had was one year of Tom Brady. Besides that, it has been Brad Johnson, Randall Cunningham, Dante Culpepper, a couple guys in Oakland, and Matt Cassel.

So yes, I believe that Moss is the next best WR behind Rice. I believe that Moss makes QBs look better, while Manning and Harrison teamed up, but Manning did more for Harrison than vice versa.

Again, just my opinion.

by coltsfanawalt on May 5, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions

You also have to consider

That Randy Moss mailed in at least one season, probably two, with the Raiders. God knows how insane his statline would be if he’d actually turned up and had a decent QB throwing at him.

by eltharion_doa on May 6, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions

I don’t care how great Moss was/is. Culpepper was no first round bust. He produced for the first 4/5 years and according to your criteria, should be considered not a bust. He was better than Testaverde if each QB was in their prime. Testaverde is a durably average, and if he’s not a bust, Culpepper certainly isn’t. Other than that, very interesting post and a great number crunching way to slack off at work. Solid.

by Mark Lempke on May 6, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point, eltharion doa.

by coltsfanawalt on May 7, 2009 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Daunte Culpepper

Indifan, if it’s any consolation, it was really hard putting Daunte on the bust list because I really like him.

But it’s so hard to not label him a bust when you look at his Post-Randy Moss days. As I said in the article, there may be players that you agree/disagree with, but this was just my take.

I’m really glad that you enjoyed the post though. I think I may do another post similar to this but with D-Ends. lol People go slap-happy over a big DL that can run fast, and that translates into a lot of excess spending.

Former New Orleans Saints RB George Rogers
"I want to rush for 1,000 or 1,500 yards, whichever comes first"

by stuart0908 on May 4, 2009 7:42 PM EDT reply actions

Excellent article.

Rec’d

by coltsfanawalt on May 4, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions

very interesting

very interesting i will have to keep an eye on that

hartzler92

by Hartzler92 on May 5, 2009 2:52 PM EDT reply actions

But...

You said your “bust” vs. “not bust” label was based on the statistical lines provided. You called Chad Pennington a bust, but his stat line was very similar to Carson Palmer’s. If you added other qualifiers like “career winning percentage,” you’d see that Pennington has a higher career winning percentage than Palmer (plus a higher post season percentage…since Palmer’s is .000).

If you’re really going by stats alone, then by the Pennington line of reasoning, shouldn’t Jeff George and Kerry Collins NOT be considered busts either?

I mean, if you’re talking about which QB is probably more talented, or which one you’d rather start a franchise with, or which one you’d want on your fantasy football team, then clearly Palmer is the pick. But you put up all these stats (empirical data) then added a subjective category, which, in my opinion, was not consistent with your statistical argument. I’m not trying to start a disagreement or anything, but calling guys “busts” when, by your own standards, they are not (or visa versa) will throw off your end result. You might as well make your argument even stronger and call Palmer a bust (because his stats are similar to Pennington’s). But then, everyone would probably disagree with you and it would be obvious that something’s wrong.

I’d say just get rid of the subjective factor and try to qualify QBs with a good or bad label with numbers somehow.

by LukeNukem on May 6, 2009 5:25 PM EDT reply actions