Anthony Gonzalez and Wide Reciever Stats
by shake n bake on Jun 13, 2009 11:08 PM EDT
in Colts Analysis
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Print| WR | Rec | Yards | TDs |
| A | 59 | 1,098 | 7 |
| B | 104 | 1,265 | 6 |
| C | 111 | 1,165 | 5 |
| D | 69 | 1,052 | 10 |
Which wide receiver had the best season last year?
"C" had the most receptions, "B" the most yards, "D" caught more touchdowns, and "A" was pretty good all-around.
Pick one and JUMP
Welcome. Now that you've picked the WR you think had the best season, how would your view change if you knew that the yardage leader (B) was thrown 181 passes in that season, most in the league, while C was thrown at 150 times, D was targeted only 139 times, and A just 100.
If you thought "B" was better than "C", are you reconsidering due to "B" turning 31 more targets into less receptions and only 100 more yards? Do the solid, but not outstanding numbers from "A" look a lot better considering he need just 100 passes thrown to him to reach them?
Catching the football is a key task for a wide receiver. The normal way of looking at receiver lines largely misses this. Here are the lines again with the number of passes thrown taken into account.
| WR | Rec | Catch% | Yards | TDs |
| A | 59 | 59 | 1,098 | 7 |
| B | 104 | 57 | 1,265 | 6 |
| C | 111 | 75 | 1,165 | 5 |
| D | 69 | 50 | 1,052 | 10 |
Catch% shows how "C" had more receptions with 31 less targets and helps show how "A" kept in the picture with by far the least targets.
"C" stands out pretty dramatically, almost like he's playing a different game than the other 3. He is to an extent, as a more conventional, but usually glazed over stat shows.
| WR | Rec | Yards | Y/Rec | TDs |
| A | 59 | 1,098 | 18.6 | 7 |
| B | 104 | 1,265 | 12.2 | 6 |
| C | 111 | 1,165 | 10.5 | 5 |
| D | 69 | 1,052 | 15.2 | 10 |
It's pretty clear that "A and "C" are playing WR differently. "A" is gaining nearly twice as many yards per catch. As we saw above "A" and "D" are also catching the ball significantly less often. These two are no coincidence. A 10 yard pass is harder to complete than a 20 yard pass. A and D were working as deep threats, while B and C are working much shallower routes (median* WR YPR last year was 12.6)
*=much, much quicker to find median on NFL.com's WR stat rankings, than to calculate the mean, 12.6 is in-line with the previous year means I remember from reading a PFR project on WRs.
We can use both the YPR and Catch % to a get a picture of a WRs usage/style and his ability.
| High YPR | Low YPR | |
| High Catch% | Great WR | Possession WR |
| Low Catch% | Deep Threat | Bad WR |
So WR A has a pretty average Catch % and a excellent YPR.
B was slightly below average in both
C was the picture of a possession WR with a tiny YPC, but great Catch%
D was way below average in catch%, while running a bit deeper than usual routes.
One last time, who do you think had the best season?
WR A is Vincent Jackson
WR B is Brandon Marshall
WR C is Wes Welker
WR D is Terrell Owens
Finally we get to the other half of the title. Anthony Gonzalez will be stepping into the #2 WR role. I'll be tough to match the 88-87 duo, but Anthony Gonzalez has shown a lot these past two seasons in his limited role.
Gonzo has recorded an average to above average YPR of 13.2, with an outstanding Catch% of 72% the last two years. Only Wes Welker and Ike Hilliard have topped his catch% over that time, and both had YPR's of just 10.5. Anthony Gonzalez has shown a rare ability to catch passes at a far greater than usual rate, while not running shorter than usual routes. This is an excellent sign for his future as he expands into a full time #2 WR.
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forgot to wrap up my nameless WRs game
done now
Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake
by shake n bake on Jun 13, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Ahh, I was wondering.
That is very interesting. Vincent Jackson was second in that group in completion percentage and first in YPR. Just didn’t get a lot of looks.
It’s nice to analyze the stats without the preconceived biases, then see who is who.
by coltsfanawalt on Jun 13, 2009 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice Post
Lots of good information and made me a lot more comfortable with Gonzo as the new #2 target.
by FreeneyWillEatYourBaby on Jun 13, 2009 11:36 PM EDT reply actions
Great Post, Shake
It’s good to see that Gonzo has the opportunity to stack up well against some pretty good WRs in the league next year. I still can’t believe I chose Brandon Marshall (choice B) though, lol.
"Peyton Manning flow, I just go no huddle."
- Lil' Wayne, Put Some Keys on That
I can believe people chose Marshall
him and Welker got Pro Bowl trips for their seasons. Target info isn’t widely available or considered and without knowing that Marshall’s numbers were inflated by a massive number of targets his season looks great.
With that many targets Marshall should have been putting up a line like Andre Johnson’s (170 targets) 1,575 yards, 115 receptions, 13.7YPC, 68% catch%.
Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake
by shake n bake on Jun 14, 2009 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Shake, very nice and thought-provoking piece, but I still hate you!
Because I selected Terrible Lockerroom Cancer Owens first, and then Vincent Jackson at first blush before the other data were revealed. Ick. First I shower, then I kill you for entrapment.
Well, maybe because I love your 2 by 2 grid so much, I’ll just shower the Owens stain off my conscience and NOT kill you.
BTW, what are you taking in school, because 2×2 grids like that, used properly, could get you an MBA without too much sweat.
I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.
A lot of MBA courses
emphasize getting to an “80/20 solution” quickly, and offer various frameworks to help you do so. A frequently-used one is plotting alternatives or scenarios in a 2×2 grid, where you have one analytical dimension along the x axis, another along the y axis, with values such as low and high (e.g., low YPR v. high catch %).
The issue of course is that many problems actually take a long time and difficult, intricate analysis to solve.
How can you not love a team that does this?
2 x 2 matrices
I’m thinking about five of them, thoroughly explained, and he’s got a shot at publication as a HBS case study.
(you know, I initially thought that as a joke, but the more I think about it, the more realistic it seems. Oh, he’d need a few initials after his name to get pubbed, but I bet a b-school publication would happily run a piece linking stats, sports, and predicted versus actual outcomes. So much of biz is predicting outcomes—apply the matrix (which is pretty simple to understand) to something most b-school students (largely males in their late 20s) are familiar with and you have an instant hit.) Stats and logistics teachers would assign it each fall as an easy way to link their discipline to last Saturday’s big game on campus.
Shake’s WR matrix instantly reminded me of the one with “cash cow” in one of the corners (from Micharl Porter? Boston Consulting Group?)… you know, upper left is a star (high returns high costs), upper right is question marks (high costs, low growth), cash cow is lower left (low cost/high rtn) and dog on lower right (low cost low rtns).
Okay, way too far off topic.
I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.
There was going to be more to this post
but the results from the stats weren’t clear enough for me to run with them, but suggestive enough for me to plan on adding more WR data to see if it makes more or less sense with the added data.
Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake
by shake n bake on Jun 15, 2009 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions
The matrix is also reminiscent of game theory
but I, too, digress…
How can you not love a team that does this?
It was either game theory
or Punnett squares
Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake
by shake n bake on Jun 15, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Journalism
with a natural science expertise/minors
but I do like Econ, as the various posts I’ve done with Econ concepts involved show.
Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake
by shake n bake on Jun 14, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Good stuff
I’m optimistic about Gonzo too; he’s progressing very well. Of course it doesn’t hurt to have Peyton throwing to him. Targets lose a lot of meaning if the QB sucks. Playing on a good offense with a smart and accurate QB will help the development of any WR.
I wonder what Marshall and Royal will do this year in Denver with Kyle Orton or Chris Simms throwing to them. And pity a guy like Calvin Johnson, who could be Jerry Rice’s more talented brother if he had any kind of offense around him.
I picked T.O.
I liked the TD production relative to the others, and without doing the calculations, the YPC looked pretty high.
How can you not love a team that does this?
I did too
But only because the catch % wasn’t given. I had just read a piece on Vincent Jackson, so I knew that he was A, and there was no way I was gonna pick that jerk after all the times he’s embarrassed our secondary.
Same here for TO
but not knowing A was Vince Jax, I made that mistake too.
I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.
You guys and your graphs and stats
Make my head spin, here’s what I want to know about a guy, is he a GAMER? Does he have the heart and talent to help keep his offense on the field? Answer for Gonzo-YES he does, and this year should be his big chance. If you’ve ever heard him in interviews you know he’s football smart. Plus his chemistry with Peyton just keeps getting better.
"I throw, you catch, it's not that hard."
I went for Marshall originally
Then swapped to Jackson when the catch % was included.
Welker’s an amazing possession receiver though, truly underrated before he got the media spotlight in New England.
well before he got to NE he was mostly a return man
he returned over 100 kicks before he caught his first NFL pass.
he returned his 400th kick around the same time he caught his 100th pass (both in New England)
Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake
by shake n bake on Jun 15, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
First downs
Is there a standard deviation available for YPR or better yet a conversion percentage for first downs? I’m thinking possesion recivers are much more important than are widely recognized.
duckling basket
I don´t understand nothing no more. Where is the tuna? Where are the breadcrumbs? My duckling´s wings aka slash are busy typing and giving his breadcrumbs to stampede blue, but nobody is paying attention to my white spot and my gray fur no more. My boots are trembling and my mouth is quivering because I don´t understand the rules of breadcrumb-ball. Coo.
slash 196
you´re duckling-breadcrumbs are my breadcrumbs.
you're posting from the same IP as slash196, so I think you'll be able to tell him that yourself
not through the site.
Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake
by shake n bake on Jun 16, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
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