Finding the Winning Factors - 3 & Outs

by mgrex03 on Jun 18, 2009 12:45 AM EDT in Winning Stats Comment 6 comments

This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at a not-so common stat: 3 & Outs. Technically it should be called "Drives without a First Down", but 3 & Outs is the common vernacular, so we'll go with that. Here's how I calculated it:

Drives without a First Down

Tough huh? I looked at dividing it by the number of drives in a game, but it wasn't as good at predicting as just straight 3 & Outs. In the stats I included the Percentages, just for completeness (and to show the Colts awesomeness on offense and not-awesomeness on defense).

I went back to 2001 to see how teams do. That means I'll be looking at 4,080 games over the past 8 years. I did this calculation for every game, then found the overall average for a game. I then went back and compared every game to this average, and found wins/losses based on being above or below average.

Let's get to the numbers:

The Overall Average number of 3 & Outs over the past 8 years is 3.92 / Game. About 1 per quarter, and 34.5% of all drives. That seems high to me, but the numbers don't lie. Funny enough there have been exactly 16,000 3 & Outs the past 8 years.
The Colts have by far the least number of 3 & Outs, with 336 (or 2.63 / Game). The difference between the Colts and #2 (Patriots) is the same difference between #2 and #14 (Giants). The Colts are also way ahead in Percentage at only 25.6%. I'm not surprised by this at all.
Defensively, the Ravens are #1 again, causing 633 3 & Outs (or 4.95 / Game). That 1 more 3 & Out, on average, for every game. How have the Colts done? If you guessed dead last, you'd be right. The Colts have only forced 399 3 & Outs (or 3.12 / Game). Yikes. But we already knew the Colts were bad at this.
So how often do teams win when they are Above Average on Offense? 1096-767-0, which is 58.8%. That's definitely not as good as some of the other stats we've looked at. Having an Above Average defense produces a record of 1271-942-4, which is 57.4%, which is a little worse than the offense. This doesn't seem like it is going to give us good predictions.
When both the Offense and Defense are Above Average, their record is 577-248, or 69.9%. This ranks 7th out of 10 stats so far, which won't make the cut. I plan on keeping the top 6.
The best game since 2001? Week 5 in 2005, where the Redskins had 12 drives without a 3 & Out against. the Broncos. That's pretty darn good. Unfortunately for them, they lost to the Broncos 21-19. Best game for the Colts offense? Week 11 in 2003 against the Jets, where they had 11 drives without a 3 & Out, tied for 2nd best game overall (8 games).
The worst game since 2001? Week 15 in 2006, where the Buccaneers had 13 3 & Outs against the Bears. They did have 19 drives in that game though, and scored 31 points, losing in Overtime. The Colts worst game not involving Sorgi? Week 12, 2001, a 39-27 loss to Baltimore, where they had 8 3 & Outs. The Colts have only had 5 games with more than 5 3 & Outs.
The Colts have only lost 2 games when they have had less than 4 3 & Outs, and the defense has forced 4 or more 3 & Outs: Week 10 in 2003 against the Jaguars (28-23 loss), and Week 13 in 2003 against the Patriots (stupid Edge not getting in the End Zone at the end). The Colts have won 21 straight games since then. Come on defense, get your act together and get off the field!

So what did we learn today? Well, 3 & Outs aren't the best way to predict football games, but it isn't the worst we've looked at so far. We also learned the Colts are really good on offense, and really bad on defense.

I promised a table of all the stats we've looked at so far, and those we still have to look at. Here goes:

Statistic	Average	Off Win%	Def Win %	Off/Def Win %
ANPY/A	5.338	70.3%	70.7%	89.1%
Yds/Play	5.095	62.2%	61.6%	77.4%
RZ Eff	65.6%	59.3%	60.6%	69.7%
RB Success	45.6%	54.8%	54.5%	59.0%
Yds/Drive	28.36	63.2%	63.6%	81.5%
ToP/Drive	2:39.3	65.4%	65.3%	79.6%
DSR
Yds/Carry	4.125	52.8%	52.2%	55.0%
3rd/4th Down	39.1%	62.6%	61.8%	75.1%
Turnovers
Avg Start Pos	31.20	65.0%	62.8%	72.9%
Plays/Drive
Net Punts Yds/Game
Penalty Yds / Play
First Downs/Drive
3 & Outs	3.92	58.8%	57.4%	69.9%

After the jump you'll see the offensive and defensive numbers for each team, as well as Win/Loss records when going above/below the league average. Click on the headers to sort. Here's a link to the last 5 years worth of data. There's not much of a difference, especially since it only took out 3 years worth of data.

Here are the Offensive and Defensive Numbers...

Team	Offense			Defense
Team	3 & Outs	Drives	3 & Outs %	3 & Outs	Drives	3 & Outs %
Colts	336	1311	25.6%	399	1331	30.0%
Patriots	413	1395	29.6%	499	1431	34.9%
Steelers	434	1429	30.4%	556	1425	39.0%
Broncos	446	1439	31.0%	488	1419	34.4%
Chiefs	449	1444	31.1%	449	1441	31.2%
Rams	459	1473	31.2%	490	1452	33.7%
Chargers	457	1425	32.1%	526	1481	35.5%
Jets	431	1340	32.2%	419	1365	30.7%
Saints	472	1460	32.3%	476	1448	32.9%
Vikings	472	1458	32.4%	478	1447	33.0%
Seahawks	477	1472	32.4%	476	1480	32.2%
Packers	498	1488	33.5%	504	1496	33.7%
Jaguars	473	1412	33.5%	479	1401	34.2%
Giants	496	1478	33.6%	513	1485	34.5%
Falcons	498	1455	34.2%	467	1454	32.1%
Ravens	523	1507	34.7%	633	1537	41.2%
Buccaneers	518	1466	35.3%	572	1464	39.1%
Titans	526	1486	35.4%	562	1471	38.2%
Raiders	516	1449	35.6%	487	1470	33.1%
Bengals	522	1447	36.1%	448	1441	31.1%
Bills	518	1435	36.1%	487	1418	34.3%
Cardinals	533	1474	36.2%	497	1479	33.6%
Texans	444	1227	36.2%	373	1219	30.6%
Eagles	551	1517	36.3%	569	1514	37.6%
Dolphins	538	1479	36.4%	524	1459	35.9%
Cowboys	549	1499	36.6%	547	1491	36.7%
Redskins	545	1482	36.8%	551	1468	37.5%
Panthers	571	1510	37.8%	545	1504	36.2%
Browns	557	1464	38.0%	461	1451	31.8%
Lions	563	1474	38.2%	452	1462	30.9%
49ers	586	1486	39.4%	456	1442	31.6%
Bears	629	1555	40.5%	617	1590	38.8%
Total	16000	46436	34.5%	16000	46436	34.5%

Here are the Win/Loss records of teams when they go above/below average:

Team	Offense								Defense
	Above Average				Below Average				Above Average				Below Average
	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Patriots	63	14	0	0.818	34	17	0	0.667	59	11	0	0.843	38	20	0	0.655
Steelers	56	18	0	0.757	29	24	1	0.546	53	24	1	0.686	32	18	0	0.640
Colts	71	20	0	0.780	20	17	0	0.541	40	8	0	0.833	51	29	0	0.638
Chargers	44	24	0	0.647	27	33	0	0.450	48	25	0	0.658	23	32	0	0.418
Packers	37	20	0	0.649	38	33	0	0.535	43	29	0	0.597	32	24	0	0.571
Cowboys	29	15	0	0.659	37	47	0	0.440	35	37	0	0.486	31	25	0	0.554
Eagles	40	14	0	0.741	41	32	1	0.561	52	25	1	0.673	29	21	0	0.580
Ravens	32	24	0	0.571	39	33	0	0.542	62	36	0	0.633	9	21	0	0.300
Seahawks	42	25	0	0.627	29	32	0	0.475	45	23	0	0.662	26	34	0	0.433
Jets	32	37	0	0.464	30	29	0	0.508	36	18	0	0.667	26	48	0	0.351
Broncos	45	24	0	0.652	29	30	0	0.492	43	25	0	0.632	31	29	0	0.517
Rams	36	35	0	0.507	24	33	0	0.421	40	30	0	0.571	20	38	0	0.345
Dolphins	24	20	0	0.545	37	47	0	0.440	40	37	0	0.519	21	30	0	0.412
Panthers	28	20	0	0.583	36	44	0	0.450	41	31	0	0.569	23	33	0	0.411
Bears	23	14	0	0.622	46	45	0	0.505	56	31	0	0.644	13	28	0	0.317
Giants	35	29	0	0.547	33	31	0	0.516	46	27	0	0.630	22	33	0	0.400
Titans	25	20	0	0.556	45	38	0	0.542	52	28	0	0.650	18	30	0	0.375
Falcons	37	21	0	0.638	25	44	1	0.364	30	33	1	0.477	32	32	0	0.500
Buccaneers	39	20	0	0.661	27	42	0	0.391	47	30	0	0.610	19	32	0	0.373
Saints	33	30	0	0.524	27	38	0	0.415	32	28	0	0.533	28	40	0	0.412
Chiefs	36	34	0	0.514	23	35	0	0.397	33	28	0	0.541	26	41	0	0.388
Vikings	37	29	0	0.561	24	38	0	0.387	35	33	0	0.515	26	34	0	0.433
Bills	25	31	0	0.446	27	45	0	0.375	40	34	0	0.541	12	42	0	0.222
Jaguars	35	29	0	0.547	27	37	0	0.422	35	30	0	0.538	27	36	0	0.429
Browns	24	22	0	0.522	25	57	0	0.305	27	38	0	0.415	22	41	0	0.349
49ers	26	18	0	0.591	28	56	0	0.333	32	32	0	0.500	22	42	0	0.344
Bengals	25	28	0	0.472	29	45	1	0.393	29	26	1	0.527	25	47	0	0.347
Redskins	29	22	0	0.569	29	48	0	0.377	41	41	0	0.500	17	29	0	0.370
Cardinals	22	26	0	0.458	27	53	0	0.338	28	34	0	0.452	21	45	0	0.318
Raiders	24	28	0	0.462	21	55	0	0.276	29	38	0	0.433	16	45	0	0.262
Texans	24	30	0	0.444	16	42	0	0.276	19	29	0	0.396	21	43	0	0.328
Lions	18	26	0	0.409	13	71	0	0.155	23	43	0	0.348	8	54	0	0.129
Total	1096	767	0	0.588	942	1271	4	0.426	1271	942	4	0.574	767	1096	0	0.412

And finally, Win/Loss records when the offense is above average, and the defense holds the other team below average

Team	Above Average				Below Average
Team	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Patriots	32	3	0	0.914	7	9	0	0.438
Steelers	29	9	0	0.763	5	9	0	0.357
Jets	18	3	0	0.857	12	14	0	0.462
Packers	15	7	0	0.682	10	11	0	0.476
Falcons	15	8	0	0.652	10	19	0	0.345
Chargers	26	10	0	0.722	5	18	0	0.217
Giants	20	9	0	0.690	7	13	0	0.350
Ravens	26	10	0	0.722	3	7	0	0.300
Seahawks	23	7	0	0.767	7	16	0	0.304
Rams	21	13	0	0.618	5	16	0	0.238
Eagles	20	8	0	0.714	9	15	0	0.375
Jaguars	17	8	0	0.680	9	15	0	0.375
Bears	15	5	0	0.750	5	19	0	0.208
Broncos	23	7	0	0.767	9	12	0	0.429
Cowboys	15	7	0	0.682	17	17	0	0.500
Panthers	14	9	0	0.609	9	22	0	0.290
Colts	26	2	0	0.929	6	11	0	0.353
Buccaneers	25	5	0	0.833	5	17	0	0.227
Dolphins	12	6	0	0.667	9	16	0	0.360
49ers	14	8	0	0.636	10	32	0	0.238
Chiefs	21	9	0	0.700	11	16	0	0.407
Saints	13	11	0	0.542	8	21	0	0.276
Titans	13	5	0	0.722	6	15	0	0.286
Raiders	15	7	0	0.682	7	24	0	0.226
Cardinals	10	8	0	0.556	9	27	0	0.250
Vikings	20	12	0	0.625	9	17	0	0.346
Bengals	11	7	0	0.611	11	26	0	0.297
Browns	10	8	0	0.556	8	27	0	0.229
Bills	17	13	0	0.567	4	24	0	0.143
Redskins	18	12	0	0.600	6	19	0	0.240
Texans	10	8	0	0.556	7	21	0	0.250
Lions	13	4	0	0.765	3	32	0	0.086
Total	577	248	0	0.699	248	577	0	0.301

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Comments

Excellent as usual

rec’d

How can you not love a team that does this?

by LovinBlue on Jun 18, 2009 2:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mgrex03,

I like your profile picture. Do you Photoshop?

"I throw, you catch, it's not that hard."

by Indy Lori on Jun 18, 2009 8:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can't take credit for that

Bullard47 made it for me. BBS had a contest over a year ago, since I didn’t have an avatar.

NFC North and NFC South writer for SB Nation's NFL Draft blog: Mocking the Draft

by mgrex03 on Jun 18, 2009 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is unbelievable... terrific work, great info

Thanks.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Jun 18, 2009 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Awesome as usual.

The first thing that occurred to me, since 3-and outs are attributable to both O and D (like turnovers), is the 3-and-out “net,” and how that predicts wins….?

My guess is that NE and maybe even Pitt comes out ahead of us net, and unbalanced teams might “find their right place” in the pecking order. (Or does that undermine your whole methodology of separating O and D, above and below average?)

(I prefer the term 3-and-outs because a drive without a 1st down can also be two runs and a 40 yd TD bomb. Or is a TD considered a FD in this instance, negating that drive from this analysis? How are TO’s treated—is a lost fumble on the 2nd play a 3-and-out trigger (it would be a series without a first down….). Just wondering.

Thanks again, cool stuff.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Jun 18, 2009 4:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here are the net numbers

If Team A has less 3 and Outs than Team B, they are 1144-548-2, or 67.6%, so a little worse than I found here with using the average.

In terms of net numbers, Top 5 are Steelers, Ravens, Patriots, Chargers, and Colts. The usual suspects are at the bottom as well (Texans, Bengals, Browns, Lions, and 49ers).

Drives ending in a TD were not counted, as that can’t be a bad thing. I did count a TO before gaining a first down as a 3 and out, as it is actually worse than the actual 3 and out.

NFC North and NFC South writer for SB Nation's NFL Draft blog: Mocking the Draft

by mgrex03 on Jun 18, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs