Finding the Winning Factors - 3rd/4th Down Conversions

by mgrex03 on Jun 2, 2009 12:35 AM EDT in Winning Stats Comment 21 comments

This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at a very common stat: 3rd/4th Down Conversions. I decided to combine both 3rd and 4th down as it gave better results than just 3rd Down Conversions, and 4th down by itself wasn't helpful at all. Here's how I calculated it:

(3rd Down Conversions + 4th Down Conversions) / (3rd Down Attempts + 4th Down Attempts)

I also threw around the idea of weighting short/middle/long distance conversions, but thought I'd keep it simple for now, and look to improve it later. If anyone wants to take on this challenge, let me know and I'll gather some data and send it off. The other challenge is perfecting my data-gathering technique for distance conversions. There's always room for improvement.

I went back to 2001 to see how teams do. That means I'll be looking at 4,080 games over the past 8 years. I did this calculation for every game, then found the overall average for a game. I then went back and compared every game to this average, and found wins/losses based on being above or below average.

Let's get to the numbers:

The Overall Average Conversion Percentage over the past 8 years is 39.1%. This is actually a little higher than I was expecting, which is a good sign. Haven't said that often.
The Colts have taken back the throne of being #1 in this stat, converting at 47.7%. This is a full 3.6% better than #2 (Patriots). Whenever the stat is led by the Colts and Patriots, I think it's going to lead to a lot of wins.
Defensively, the Ravens have also taken back the #1 spot, holding opponents to 34.2%. Nothing surprising with this list. The Colts check in at #31, 42.9%. Only the Lions are worse. That's not good company to be in.
So how often do teams win when they are Above Average on Offense? 1230-734-2, which is 62.6%. Anything over 60% here has been pretty good so far, so that's a good sign. Having an Above Average defense produces a record of 1305-807-2, which is 61.8%, which is a little worse than the offense. Looking good.
When both the Offense and Defense are Above Average, their record is 745-247, or 75.1%. This ranks 5th out of 9 stats so far, smack dab in the middle. For now, it's a keeper.
The best game since 2001? Week 16 in 2008, where the Saints converted at 91.7% (11/12) against the Lions. I'm a little surprised there hasn't been a game with 100% conversion. Something to shoot for I guess in 2009. Best game for the Colts offense? Week 13 in 2007 against the Jaguars, where they converted 10/13 (76.9%), good for 9th best game overall. The Colts are responsible for 5 of the top 17 games, and no other team has more than 1 in the top 17. Have I mentioned the Colts have been really, really good at this?
The worst game since 2001? Well, there were two that went 0/13: Week 16 in 2002, where the Cowboys were awful against the Eagles, and Week 8 in 2005, where the Saints failed miserably against the Dolphins. The Colts worst game not involving Sorgi? One I attended in 2003, a 31-17 loss to Denver. The Colts were an atrocious 2/10. Yikes.
The Colts have played the most games when the defense is below average. In other news, water is found to be wet, and Man has landed on the moon. The Colts also have the best record when the defense is below average, so I guess it can't be all that bad, huh? To contrast this, the Colts have played the most games where the offense was above average, with the 2nd best record.
In KingRichard's 10 Things the Colts Must Do to Become Champs, he lists as #3:
The biggest problem with the defense last season wasn't that they were being run all over or getting burnt deep against the pass. It was the failure to stop teams on third down, no matter what the distance.
As we see from these stats, he's absolutely right, and improvement can lead directly to wins. Even just 2 more games of holding the other team below 39% (Colts average only 6 / season) should lead to 2 more wins. The Colts have only lost 4 times when both the offense and defense show up in the same game. More of these games would be fantastic, and almost automatic wins. This is where I hope the new defensive staff improves the most.

So what did we learn today? 3rd and 4th down conversions are, in fact, very important to winning. The Colts are far and away the best team in the league offensively, and have lots of room for improvement defensively. Here's to that improvement coming in 2009.

After the jump you'll see the offensive and defensive numbers for each team, as well as Win/Loss records when going above/below the league average. Click on the headers to sort. Here's a link to the last 5 years worth of data. There's not much of a difference, especially since it only took out 3 years worth of data.

Here are the Offensive and Defensive Numbers...

Team	Offense					Defense
Team	3rd Conv	3rd Att	4th Conv	4th Att	Pct	3rd Conv	3rd Att	4th Conv	4th Att	Pct
Vikings	680	1680	65	126	41.3%	648	1648	51	112	39.7%
Falcons	664	1722	53	122	38.9%	638	1648	61	126	39.4%
Broncos	649	1658	62	124	39.9%	623	1670	59	119	38.1%
Giants	637	1694	41	119	37.4%	666	1750	60	133	38.6%
Chargers	669	1665	53	92	41.1%	657	1712	75	152	39.3%
Chiefs	663	1652	60	117	40.9%	648	1658	53	121	39.4%
Eagles	649	1719	41	87	38.2%	614	1795	58	136	34.8%
Jaguars	666	1712	88	163	40.2%	658	1696	52	124	39.0%
49ers	645	1724	57	115	38.2%	708	1738	69	116	41.9%
Seahawks	640	1673	47	98	38.8%	739	1809	56	112	41.4%
Packers	712	1724	51	105	41.7%	605	1695	66	140	36.6%
Rams	668	1697	78	137	40.7%	616	1616	51	105	38.8%
Jets	662	1661	52	117	40.2%	691	1694	80	137	42.1%
Redskins	654	1763	57	118	37.8%	639	1740	53	107	37.5%
Steelers	732	1754	63	127	42.3%	636	1718	53	128	37.3%
Raiders	615	1697	69	142	37.2%	679	1723	62	122	40.2%
Cowboys	656	1726	54	115	38.6%	640	1734	59	107	38.0%
Dolphins	631	1720	61	116	37.7%	652	1734	54	115	38.2%
Titans	661	1733	52	142	38.0%	600	1661	69	124	37.5%
Ravens	692	1844	58	114	38.3%	601	1779	51	125	34.2%
Saints	740	1749	63	143	42.4%	652	1673	54	105	39.7%
Bills	592	1654	68	143	36.7%	671	1692	68	127	40.6%
Bengals	704	1754	48	121	40.1%	682	1668	57	119	41.4%
Panthers	611	1726	32	89	35.4%	694	1795	55	115	39.2%
Lions	556	1685	64	150	33.8%	735	1712	54	94	43.7%
Colts	745	1591	58	92	47.7%	687	1627	74	145	42.9%
Patriots	739	1734	88	142	44.1%	658	1700	53	127	38.9%
Texans	524	1451	69	117	37.8%	581	1441	53	92	41.4%
Buccaneers	651	1754	52	101	37.9%	628	1740	48	111	36.5%
Browns	586	1665	52	118	35.8%	705	1764	64	136	40.5%
Bears	584	1789	70	143	33.9%	620	1819	57	132	34.7%
Cardinals	655	1741	64	128	38.5%	661	1662	61	119	40.5%
Total	20932	54511	1890	3883	39.1%	20932	54511	1890	3883	39.1%

Here are the Win/Loss records of teams when they go above/below average:

Team	Offense								Defense
	Above Average				Below Average				Above Average				Below Average
	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Patriots	70	14	0	0.833	27	17	0	0.614	54	7	0	0.885	43	24	0	0.642
Steelers	63	13	1	0.825	22	29	0	0.431	55	22	0	0.714	30	20	1	0.598
Colts	71	19	0	0.789	20	18	0	0.526	38	8	0	0.826	53	29	0	0.646
Chargers	43	22	0	0.662	28	35	0	0.444	43	19	0	0.694	28	38	0	0.424
Packers	45	26	0	0.634	30	27	0	0.526	50	23	0	0.685	25	30	0	0.455
Cowboys	41	18	0	0.695	25	44	0	0.362	41	32	0	0.562	25	30	0	0.455
Eagles	44	12	0	0.786	37	34	1	0.521	63	20	1	0.756	18	26	0	0.409
Ravens	36	21	0	0.632	35	36	0	0.493	53	30	0	0.639	18	27	0	0.400
Seahawks	38	18	0	0.679	33	39	0	0.458	48	11	0	0.814	23	46	0	0.333
Jets	38	25	0	0.603	24	41	0	0.369	34	16	0	0.680	28	50	0	0.359
Broncos	45	24	0	0.652	29	30	0	0.492	45	22	0	0.672	29	32	0	0.475
Rams	40	26	0	0.606	20	42	0	0.323	37	29	0	0.561	23	39	0	0.371
Dolphins	37	19	0	0.661	24	48	0	0.333	37	30	0	0.552	24	37	0	0.393
Panthers	34	14	0	0.708	30	50	0	0.375	37	26	0	0.587	27	38	0	0.415
Bears	24	12	0	0.667	45	47	0	0.489	50	30	0	0.625	20	28	0	0.417
Giants	36	18	0	0.667	32	42	0	0.432	44	25	0	0.638	24	35	0	0.407
Titans	33	22	0	0.600	37	36	0	0.507	45	25	0	0.643	25	33	0	0.431
Falcons	39	20	1	0.658	23	45	0	0.338	33	34	0	0.493	29	31	1	0.484
Buccaneers	42	19	0	0.689	24	43	0	0.358	48	34	0	0.585	18	28	0	0.391
Saints	39	38	0	0.506	21	30	0	0.412	42	25	0	0.627	18	43	0	0.295
Chiefs	42	26	0	0.618	17	43	0	0.283	41	26	0	0.612	18	43	0	0.295
Vikings	37	35	0	0.514	24	32	0	0.429	38	30	0	0.559	23	37	0	0.383
Bills	27	31	0	0.466	25	45	0	0.357	36	31	0	0.537	16	45	0	0.262
Jaguars	37	30	0	0.552	25	36	0	0.410	40	22	0	0.645	22	44	0	0.333
Browns	27	22	0	0.551	22	57	0	0.278	33	26	0	0.559	16	53	0	0.232
49ers	30	27	0	0.526	23	48	0	0.324	33	22	0	0.600	21	52	0	0.288
Bengals	36	33	0	0.522	18	40	1	0.314	34	25	1	0.575	20	48	0	0.294
Redskins	40	17	0	0.702	18	53	0	0.254	42	30	0	0.583	16	40	0	0.286
Cardinals	30	32	0	0.484	19	47	0	0.288	36	33	0	0.522	13	46	0	0.220
Raiders	31	26	0	0.544	14	57	0	0.197	33	35	0	0.485	12	48	0	0.200
Texans	22	29	0	0.431	18	43	0	0.295	26	26	0	0.500	14	46	0	0.233
Lions	13	26	0	0.333	18	71	0	0.202	16	33	0	0.327	15	64	0	0.190
Total	1230	734	2	0.626	807	1305	2	0.382	1305	807	2	0.618	734	1230	2	0.374

And finally, Win/Loss records when the offense is above average, and the defense holds the other team below average

Team	Above Average				Below Average
Team	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Patriots	35	2	0	0.946	8	12	0	0.400
Steelers	44	4	0	0.917	11	11	0	0.500
Jets	18	4	0	0.818	8	29	0	0.216
Packers	31	14	0	0.689	11	18	0	0.379
Falcons	17	10	0	0.630	7	21	0	0.250
Chargers	25	6	0	0.806	10	22	0	0.313
Giants	18	7	0	0.720	6	24	0	0.200
Ravens	26	7	0	0.788	8	13	0	0.381
Seahawks	22	2	0	0.917	7	30	0	0.189
Rams	24	9	0	0.727	7	22	0	0.241
Eagles	33	4	0	0.892	7	18	0	0.280
Jaguars	23	7	0	0.767	8	21	0	0.276
Bears	18	6	0	0.750	13	23	0	0.361
Broncos	27	6	0	0.818	11	14	0	0.440
Cowboys	23	7	0	0.767	7	19	0	0.269
Panthers	17	3	0	0.850	10	27	0	0.270
Colts	26	4	0	0.867	8	14	0	0.364
Buccaneers	31	6	0	0.838	7	15	0	0.318
Dolphins	21	9	0	0.700	8	27	0	0.229
49ers	19	9	0	0.679	9	35	0	0.205
Chiefs	27	8	0	0.771	3	25	0	0.107
Saints	28	12	0	0.700	7	17	0	0.292
Titans	21	9	0	0.700	13	20	0	0.394
Raiders	23	10	0	0.697	4	32	0	0.111
Cardinals	23	12	0	0.657	6	26	0	0.188
Vikings	22	14	0	0.611	8	16	0	0.333
Bengals	22	12	0	0.647	6	27	0	0.182
Browns	17	8	0	0.680	6	39	0	0.133
Bills	20	11	0	0.645	9	25	0	0.265
Redskins	27	7	0	0.794	3	30	0	0.091
Texans	12	10	0	0.545	4	27	0	0.129
Lions	5	8	0	0.385	7	46	0	0.132
Total	745	247	0	0.751	247	745	0	0.249

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Comments

Great Post

Mgrex, this is by far my favorite on going series on this site. One thing I would like to ask is, why no record for teams that were below average? I think that that is just as important an indicator of validity for statistical measure as wins with above average performance. There is definitely cases where the winner can underperform in a certain statistical area. I think it is the divergence in performance between overperformers and underperformers that truly measures a statistics reliability.

I also wish I had time and motivation to blog at Speed Blue Nation

by Bullard47 on Jun 2, 2009 12:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Just flip the records

Above Average Offense = Below Average Defense, so the record with a Below Average Defense is 734-1230-2, roughly 37%. You can do the same for the other side of the ball too.

Sorry I wasn’t more clear with that.

NFC North and NFC South writer for SB Nation's NFL Draft blog: Mocking the Draft

by mgrex03 on Jun 2, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haha

Thanks a lot. That’s why I should not read and post when I’m on the road. That of course makes sense.

I also wish I had time and motivation to blog at Speed Blue Nation

by Bullard47 on Jun 2, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice work, Mgrex

As the Colts have made great strides in addressing their run defense, you would think that would have a great impact on opponent’s 3rd down conversion rate.
Another reason to be very optimistic about the Colt’s chances for a great season in ‘09.
Your stats showing the Colt’s dismal record in stopping 3rd down conversions over the past several years is also more evidence of why showing Ron Meeks the door was absolutly necessary for the improvement of the team.

by HoosierHorseman on Jun 2, 2009 8:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Rec'd

Great stuff man!

Great stories. Compelling, and rich.

by KingRichard on Jun 2, 2009 8:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Are we grading our offense on a curve?

Though most of us would agree our defense has been far from great we all tend to put a fair amount of heat on the Colts offense for not producing like we’d hope they would. Some of this is chalked up to our high expectations based on personnel and salary allocation. However I’m wondering if part of our perspective is based on seeing how much better other team’s offenses look against our “soft bend but don’t break” defense. Does that somehow skew our sense of how good an “average” offense looks? Does that somehow raise our “expectations” for the Colts offense even though they are ofter playing against a much better defense? I’m mostly just wondering out loud.

by Rob-Westside on Jun 2, 2009 9:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good thought.

I have been guilty of that.

by coltsfanawalt on Jun 2, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Something else to point out

That I didn’t see mentioned is that the Colts have, by far, a drastically lower number of 3rd down attempts in the first place. With 1591 attempts the Colts are 61 attempts fewer than the second lowest team, the Chiefs. To put that into perspective, that is the same difference between #2 and #14.

This tells me that not only are the Colts converting more 3rd downs than anyone else, but they aren’t even getting to 3rd down nearly as often as anyone else either, either because they are converting on 1st and 2nd downs or their drives take up bigger chunks of field with each play than any other team…or a combination of the two.

by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 2, 2009 1:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that's also because teams like to run against Indy

so Indy is always near the bottom in # of drives, which means less 3rd downs because there’s less of every down when you have less drives.

Test Your Awareness

by shake n bake on Jun 2, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yet they are still scoring

And usually are among the top scoring offenses. So fewer drives or not they are making it down the field (and with sub-par ST play usually with lousy field position and coving a lot of the field). That would just fall into the catagory of taking more chunks of yardage per down than most other teams.

by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 2, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Our third down defense

is something that has provoked me to yell at my television many times. Especially on third and longs.

BTW, is there a link to this entire series? I’d like to go over it some more sometime.

by coltsfanawalt on Jun 2, 2009 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Top of the story

The first link will take you there. I’ll include in every subsequent one as well, so you can always get to it.

NFC North and NFC South writer for SB Nation's NFL Draft blog: Mocking the Draft

by mgrex03 on Jun 2, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks.

by coltsfanawalt on Jun 2, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

The 3rd and short defense was more to me frustrating last season. ;-S

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Jun 2, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

*more frustrating to me...

ugh.

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Jun 2, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What is the best stat so far?

Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.

Man, I need a life...

Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: This is what happens when you don't follow the rules...

by Cassieper on Jun 2, 2009 2:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

In order

Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt
Yards / Drive
Time of Possession / Drive
Yards / Play
3rd/4th Down Conversions
Average Starting Position
Red Zone Efficiency
RB Success Rate
Yards / Carry

I’ve got at least 7 more, that are all across the spectrum. For the next one, I’ll include a table with everything I’ve looked at, and which ones are still to come.

NFC North and NFC South writer for SB Nation's NFL Draft blog: Mocking the Draft

by mgrex03 on Jun 2, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This has all been very quality stuff.

by coltsfanawalt on Jun 2, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, mgrex03

Any chance of you becoming a Pats fan and writing this stuff on the Pulpit? Just thought I’d ask… ;-) Seriously, outstanding work and an FP link added on Pats Pulpit.

Blogger at SBNation's Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit

by MaPatsFan on Jun 2, 2009 5:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Heh, I don't think so

At least on the becoming a Pats fan stuff.

I can help you with any Pats-related stats you’d like though. Just shoot me an email.

NFC North and NFC South writer for SB Nation's NFL Draft blog: Mocking the Draft

by mgrex03 on Jun 2, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

MGREX

Really great informative post. I just joined stampede blue to give this pat on the back cause I didn’t think you could hear my nice polite golf clap.

I was wondering if offesive series that ended in a TD were included in the successful category? How bout FG?
And defensively if a turnover was included in the successful category?

Also I did series that ended withkneel downs at the end of the game or half get counted.

IDK how you might tease these out from the stats or even if it would alter the statistically significance of the outcome. Just wondering what stampede blue readers thought.

by steelerstyle on Jun 2, 2009 6:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs