The problem is that there are far too many variables that affect the statistics for them to accurately represent skill/ability. Statistics are representative only of a player’s past performance (as accurately as that performance can be recorded by those recording the numbers). The interpretation of what those numbers mean is subject to endless intellectual bias or “run-throughs” on behalf of those who are analyzing them to “prove” their theory.

In order to accurately analyze a WR, for example, you need to consider all of the following variables, which will be found inside the numbers of any statistic you could come up with:

Pass Accuracy – Weather – Field Conditions – Pass Coverage (individual defender and team defense) – Field Position – Injuries – Offensive Scheme – Other Receiving Options (pass-catching teammates) – Offensive Line Strength – Defensive Line Strength – Time of Possession – Game Situations (when was the reception made, under what game conditions) – Defensive Penalties (passing interference, holding, etc.) – Time/Placement/Impact of Tackle – etc.

1) Pass Accuracy – Any uncatchable pass, overthrow, underthrow, early throw, late throw, or pass errant in any way would have to be a part of the analysis. (not recorded)
2) Weather – The number of passes, receptions, and ability to perform as a receiver will obviously be affected by the weather. (functionally not recorded)
3) Field Conditions – Similar to weather, if you can’t run routes, if you trip on a choppy field, etc. it can affect your ability to perform. (not recorded)
4) Pass Coverage – Is your opponent one of the best pass defenders in the league, how often are you covered by high caliber pass defenders compared to other receivers, what kind of defense are you facing, does the defense prevent deep passes or gamble and give up deep passes, all of these things will affect a receivers ability to perform. (not recorded)
5) Field Position – How often were you on a long field compared to a short field. How often were you on the thin side of the field vs. the wide side of the field. (functionally not recorded)
6) Injuries – How often were you on the field and under what physical condition, were you hobbled, incapable of make cuts, incapable of catching passes you would otherwise have been able to reel in (functionally not recorded)
7) Offensive Scheme – Do you play in a the west coast offense, do you play in a vertical threat offense, does your offense key on the run or the pass, etc. (not recorded)
8) Other Receiver Options – Do you play next to other outstanding receiving options, like maybe a Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Marvin Harrison, etc. (do you play on the same team with all of them, 1 or 2 of them), how do those receiving options impact your role in the offense (position, routes, etc.). (functionally not recorded)
9) Offensive Line Strength – How much time does your offensive line give your quarterback to look at the field and give you to find a way to get open, does the quarterback have to regularly rush throws, do you regularly have to make a play on balls arriving too soon/late in your route, etc. (functionally not recorded)
10) Defensive Line Strength – Conversely related to 9. (functionally not recorded)
11) Time of Possession – Does your team rarely have the ball or hold the ball for most of its games, how does this affect your role or the offensive play-calling. (functionally not recorded)
12) Game Situations – Did you miss a catch that was a hail mary at the end of a ball game which was a free for all for the players waiting in the end zone, did you make a clutch catch when time was about to expire to win the game, etc. (functionally not recorded)
13) Defensive penalties – How many passes did you “drop” or miss due to penalties, called or uncalled, like being held or interfered with, due to incidental contact, maybe a bad pick or broken route. (functionally not recorded)
14) Time/Placement/Impact of Tackle – When you made a play on the ball, when did you get contacted by the defender, where were you hit, how hard, in what position was your body, how long had the ball been secured in your hands (if at all) before the blow was delivered. (not recorded)

I will stop with this list and simply say I have no doubt that I could make it longer. No stat, not mgrex’s stats, yours, or anyone else’s will ever be able to take all of this into account. If they could, then maybe we would be close to having a statistical representation of a player’s actual ability… and only then they would still be subject to individual interpretation of the numbers.

Oh but keep in mind, each variable you add to your statistical representation/analysis will also be subject to individual interpretation of the data. Accordingly, even if you could come up with the list that included all of the variables I listed, and the rest of the variables that should be included, it would be such a muddled omelet of individual interpretation, bias, and opinion that it would be entirely useless as a representation for anything. Doesn’t that suck? I think it sucks, the world would be simpler if this weren’t true and everyone could be a football expert just by studying statistics. Oh well, I guess we’re just going to have to figure out a way to know a good football player when we see one.

Without the use of statistics at all consider my following opinion based on watching every game Anthony Gonzalez has played in for the Colts:

Solid hands (susceptible to the occasional drop in traffic or when he tries to run before the catch)
Excellent feet (does a great job of keeping his balance and making cuts when he needs to)
Solid field awareness (excels more at knowing where the sidelines are and could use some improvement on where the first down marker is)
Excellent quickness (makes most of his runs after the catch due more to his initial quickness than to his blazing timed speed)
Solid speed (could be really fast but focuses more on fundamentals, making the catch, running a solid route, most of the time)
Excellent mind (very smart on and off the field)
Excellent conditioning (goes above and beyond to stay in peak physical condition)
Average blocking (not much of a blocker down-field but will always make an effort)

Entering his first role as a unquestioned starting wideout, in his third season with Peyton Manning (2nd off-season of work with Manning), Manning throws for 4,000 yards + almost every year.

Assessment – Someone has to catch Peyton Manning’s passes this year with Harrison gone. Gonzalez will get the opportunity to fill that position and has the hands, route running ability, speed, quickness, and work ethic which suggest he will do well. With Peyton back to full health it makes sense for Gonzalez to see 20-40 more passes this year than he did last year, and probably an increase in another 300-500 receiving yards. My bet is that he catches 85-95 passes and eclipses 1,000 yards for the year with five or more TDs (so long as he stays healthy).

This is not based on “stats” so much as it is me watching the games and reaching my own conclusions about Gonzalez based on my “football eye.” Fallible? Sure, all opinions/assessments are. More fallible than a statistical interpretation? I don’t think so. You might. That’s fine, if numbers make you feel better about your opinions, go for it. To me, they’re largely questionable as tools to assess player ability or to even predict how a player will produce in the future.

In short, number are RAW, any additional weight given to them is created by the person analyzing them.

I’ll see if it correlates. Though I’m not optimistic since it won’t distinguish between a 2 yard screen pass, which is designed for piles of YAC and a 2 yard quick slant which is usually just a grab for those 2 yards.