Last time I used the relationship between Catch% and AirYards per Completion (yards per completion with yards after catch removed) to give an evaluation of WR hands over the last two seasons. Today with 8 years of data (as far back as I can find YAC info for) Catch% and AY/C remain correlated, allowing for 8 years of hands eval and an attempt at an overall WR ranking.

AirYards per Reception (x axis) vs Catch% (y axis)

Top 20 Catch% over expected

That 2002 Dennis Northcutt line is amazing. Of his 50 targets he caught 38 of him (76%) while averaging 15.8 yards per reception (9.8 AirYards/C). Making it even more astonishing was that it was done while catching passes from Tim Couch and lining up besides Kevin Johnson and Quincy Morgan. Ashley Lelie was a surprise to me since his name is associated with perrienial disappointment in my mind, but to be a disappointment you have to of built expectations. Lelie definetly did so catching 66% of his targets (well above average) with an average catch depth of 12 yards (top 1/8th of the sample) in 2002. Both of Anthony Gonzalez's seasons remain in the top 15, Reggie Wayne's '04 checks in at 16th, and just missing the chart at #21 is Marvin Harrison's 143 catch, 205 target, 2002 season. Marvin Harrison does not care for your concept of diminishing returns.

Bottom 20 Catch% over Expected

The worse run the range from stone handed speedsters (Chambers, Ismail, Hakim), to the master of the failed screen/dumpoff (converted Missouri QB Brad Smith). David Patten is absolutely puzzling. How does an NFL WR get 53 passes thrown his way when he barely catches 40% of them at a depth of less than 6 yards? Greg Jennings' shows that a terrible hands year isn't enough to write off a rookie. His following two seasons had catch%'s above expected.

Top 20 Receptions over Average

Marvin Harrison owns this list running away with the top spot and appearing 4 times in the 8 year span, no other WR appears more than twice in the top 20 (Reggie Wayne owns the #21 and #24 seasons to put him as the only other WR with more than 2 seasons in the top 25). Troy Brown's work as a possession WR for the early Brady Patriots gets serious love for the biggest surprise to me in the top 20.

Bottom 20 Receptions over Average

The end of Randy Moss' stay in Oakland gives us our first member of both the top and bottom lists. Moss' isn't much of a puzzle, while Laveranues Coles takes a bit more digging. The stats show a pretty big usage shift between the two seasons, going from running slightly deeper than average routes to some of the shortest routes in the sample. This raised the bar for his catch% considerably, but isn't the full story since his catch% actually dropped running the shorter routes in 2004. Going outside the spreadsheet to PFR shows a massive difference between those two years. They were played on different teams. 2002 was played for the Jets with Chad Pennington before multiple shoulder injuries and surgeries took his arm strength from weak to a punchline. 2004 was played with the Redskins catching (or not catching) passes from a Mark Brunell/Patrick Ramsey combo that completed just 56% of their passes, sported a passer rating of 70 and just 3.7 ANY/A (for a ANY/A comparison, only 1 of Joey Harrington's 4 seasons with the Lions was worse). An example like this gives you two things to consider when looking at these stats, outside factors that can effect the results. QB Play, a drop in QB play of 35 points in QB rating seems like it would effect a WRs production. Usage is the other, as some guys are better suited to get deep than sit short and vise versa. Coles seems to be the first type having his best hands season running the deepest routes of his career in 2002, and his worst running his shortest routes in 2004.

So by removing the YAC in order to clear up the relationship the hands stats clearly don't represent everything about a WRs performance. An intuitive way to remedy this is to add the YAC back in once the depth of routes has been accounted for. Receptions over average times the sample average AirYards per catch gives how many more AirYards the WR was worth than the average WR with 50+ targets. Adding the YAC over the sample average gives how many yards overall the WR was worth compared to the average WR with 50+ receptions from 2001-2008.

Or in harder to understand terms

((-.123*Ln((Yards-YAC)/Comp) + .8441) - Catch%) * Targets) * (sample average AirYards per Reception + (YAC/C - sample average YAC)) = Yards Over Average

With the numbers in place for the sample averages

(Catch%-(-.123*Ln((Yards-YAC)/Comp%) + .8441)) * Targets) * (9.563 + (YAC/Comp - 3.99)) = Yards Over Average

(7/5 note. I copied the formula wrong above. What is now posted above is the formula in the spreadsheet giving the table values, thanks Jay Paradise)

Top 20 Yards over Average

Marv again dominates, with good showings from Holt, Ward, Wayne and Troy Brown in addition to various single seasons from several talented #1 WRs.

Bottom 20 Yards over Average

... is currently unavailable since the way the formula is set up now, guys with negative hands ratings are penalized for above average YAC. So as of right now the formula is only valid for players with positive receptions over average. The formula is listed above for anyone that wants to suggest ways to expand it to the bottom half. Tying the YAC to receptions instead of receptions over average makes the formula ultra YAC heavy, and the absolute value for the Rec over Average rewards guys with worse hands over less below average catchers.