Finding the Winning Factors - Drive Success Rate

by mgrex03 on Jul 1, 2009 11:53 PM EDT in Winning Stats Comment 10 comments

This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at a not-so common Football Outsider stat: Drive Success Rate. The FO website didn't give a full definition on their website, but said to refer to Pro Football Prospectus 2005, where it was introduced. The Public Library came to the rescue, and I found exactly what they meant:

Drive Success Rate (or more precisely, series of downs success rate), or DSR, measures the likelihood that a team's offense will get another first down (or a touchdown, which the official NFL statisticians also count as a first down) in a given set of downs. And the equivalent defensive number measures how often a defense will allow another first down.

It confused me at first, as I thought they considered a drive "successful" with just 1 first down. But after reading this, it looks at each time a team has a first down, how often do they earn another one. My next challenge was to figure out the easiest way to calculate this. After thinking about for way too long, the simple answer finally came to me:

(First Downs + Pass TDs + Rush TDs) / (First Downs + Drives)**

**I don't know if this is the formula FO uses, because they didn't have that on their site. But it's the formula I used (and the numbers came out very close), so we're going with it.

I went back to 2001 to see how teams do. That means I'll be looking at 4,080 games over the past 8 years. I did this calculation for every game, then found the overall average for a game. I then went back and compared every game to this average, and found wins/losses based on being above or below average.

Let's get to the numbers:

The Overall Average Drive Success Rate over the past 8 years is 69.1%. Does this mean that offenses are just really good at getting first downs, or the defenses aren't that good at stopping them?
The Colts blow away the competition in this, with a DSR of 77.3%. The usual suspects are also high up there (Patriots, Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos), making the top 5 teams in this category all teams from the AFC. Dominance anyone?
Defensively, the Ravens are #1 again (they really have been as dominant on defense as the Colts have been on offense), with a DSR of only 63.5%. Even the best team can only stop an offense 36% of the time. The Colts come in at 30th, with a DSR of 71.6%. If the Colts can get back to "average", they'll have a scary good team.
So how often do teams win when they are Above Average on Offense? 1308-658-1, which is 66.5%. That's the 2nd best record we've seen so far. DSR is looking really good for predicting games. Having an Above Average defense produces a record of 1381-729-3, which is 65.4%, which is a little worse than the offense. We haven't seen numbers like this since we looked at Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt. Fantastic.
When both the Offense and Defense are Above Average, their record is 742-90-1, or 89.14%. This ranks 1st out of 11 stats so far, which is unbelievable. I didn't think we could get better than ANPY/A, but we did. I guess those guys at FO know what they are doing, huh?
The best game since 2001? Week 11 in 2007, where the Patriots had a DSR of 97.4% against the Bills. I remember that game, and it was ugly. Best game for the Colts offense? Week 4 in 2007 against the Broncos, where they had a DSR of 92.1%, 5th best game overall. Of the top 35 games, 11 are Colts games. Also, the top 42 games were all wins (the first loss was a Jaguars loss to the Colts, Week 13 of 2007), and those teams averaged 40.5 points / game.
The worst game since 2001? Week 16 in 2006, where the Vikings had a DSR of 20.0% against the Packers, a 9-7 loss. Tavaris Jackson at his best, and no Adrian Peterson. Only 104 total yards. Yeah, I'd say that was a bad, bad game. The Colts worst game (with Manning)? Week 12 in 2001, a 39-27 loss to the Ravens, where they had a DSR of 56.3%.
The Colts have only had 21 games where they were below average in DSR, and were 11-10 in those games. This is by far the lowest number of games below average (the Patriots were 2nd with 37 games). That Manning guy is good.
Two teams haven't lost since 2001 when their offense and defense are above average: the Falcons (22-0) and the Titans (19-0). Included in that Titans stat is the final game of 2007, when Kerry Collins put them in the playoffs against the Colts 2nd and 3rd team.
I mentioned above that if the Colts could get to "average" on defense, this team would be scary good. How do they get there? They need to make just 2 stops / game to get back to 69.5%. That's it, only 2. The offense will be above average at least 12 games. If the defense can do the same, the Colts will win, period.

So what did we learn today? Drive Success Rate is the best stat we've looked at so far, and leads to a whole lot of wins. We also learned the Colts (like many of the other stats) are really good on offense, and really bad on defense.

I promised a table of all the stats we've looked at so far, and those we still have to look at. Here goes:

Statistic	Average	Off Win%	Def Win %	Off/Def Win %
ANPY/A	5.338	70.3%	70.7%	89.10%
Yds/Play	5.095	62.2%	61.6%	77.4%
RZ Eff	65.6%	59.3%	60.6%	69.7%
RB Success	45.6%	54.8%	54.5%	59.0%
Yds/Drive	28.36	63.2%	63.6%	81.5%
ToP/Drive	2:39.3	65.4%	65.3%	79.6%
DSR	69.1%	66.5%	65.4%	89.14%
Yds/Carry	4.125	52.8%	52.2%	55.0%
3rd/4th Down	39.1%	62.6%	61.8%	75.1%
Turnovers
Avg Start Pos	31.20	65.0%	62.8%	72.9%
Plays/Drive
Net Punts Yds/Game
Penalty Yds / Play
First Downs/Drive
3 & Outs	3.92	58.8%	57.4%	69.9%

After the jump you'll see the offensive and defensive numbers for each team, as well as Win/Loss records when going above/below the league average. Click on the headers to sort. Here's a link to the last 5 years worth of data. There's not much of a difference, especially since it only took out 3 years worth of data.

Here are the Offensive and Defensive Numbers...

Team	Offense					Defense
Team	1st Downs	Pass TDs	Rush TDs	Drives	DSR	1st Downs	Pass TDs	Rush TDs	Drives	DSR
Ravens	2238	134	96	1507	65.9%	2097	143	68	1537	63.5%
Buccaneers	2247	154	84	1466	66.9%	2076	149	70	1464	64.8%
Bears	2094	136	91	1555	63.6%	2332	147	90	1590	65.5%
Steelers	2453	178	120	1429	70.9%	2084	142	75	1425	65.6%
Eagles	2406	202	105	1517	69.2%	2270	140	81	1514	65.8%
Cowboys	2333	178	100	1499	68.1%	2219	172	91	1491	66.9%
Panthers	2164	153	100	1510	65.8%	2283	158	100	1504	67.1%
Redskins	2283	152	89	1482	67.0%	2237	159	97	1468	67.3%
Patriots	2646	225	122	1395	74.1%	2317	152	80	1431	68.0%
Packers	2493	225	94	1488	70.6%	2331	181	94	1496	68.1%
Dolphins	2260	144	112	1479	67.3%	2332	165	88	1459	68.2%
Giants	2474	160	114	1478	69.5%	2331	177	101	1485	68.4%
Jaguars	2382	153	128	1412	70.2%	2297	152	92	1401	68.7%
Broncos	2620	177	123	1439	71.9%	2285	150	120	1419	69.0%
Seahawks	2540	183	122	1472	70.9%	2445	170	99	1480	69.1%
Browns	2077	153	62	1464	64.7%	2422	155	108	1451	69.3%
Titans	2332	157	115	1486	68.2%	2357	193	107	1471	69.4%
Vikings	2469	178	118	1458	70.4%	2429	171	113	1447	70.0%
Chargers	2458	190	158	1425	72.3%	2489	189	101	1481	70.0%
Rams	2504	184	100	1473	70.1%	2391	170	133	1452	70.1%
Bills	2209	137	93	1435	66.9%	2389	155	126	1418	70.1%
Saints	2520	204	111	1460	71.2%	2382	198	108	1448	70.2%
Raiders	2244	144	96	1449	67.3%	2481	160	153	1470	70.7%
Cardinals	2325	169	77	1474	67.7%	2475	202	120	1479	70.7%
Jets	2295	146	97	1340	69.8%	2458	143	114	1365	71.0%
Falcons	2294	140	125	1455	68.3%	2490	184	127	1454	71.0%
49ers	2203	156	97	1486	66.6%	2472	192	118	1442	71.1%
Bengals	2428	175	95	1447	69.6%	2486	196	112	1441	71.1%
Chiefs	2598	170	163	1444	72.5%	2524	178	131	1441	71.5%
Colts	2811	255	121	1311	77.3%	2399	148	124	1331	71.6%
Texans	1905	115	86	1227	67.2%	2216	172	103	1219	72.5%
Lions	2130	146	71	1474	65.1%	2639	210	141	1462	72.9%
Total	75435	5373	3385	46436	69.1%	75435	5373	3385	46436	69.1%

Here are the Win/Loss records of teams when they go above/below average:

Team	Offense								Defense
	Above Average				Below Average				Above Average				Below Average
	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Patriots	77	14	0	0.846	20	17	0	0.541	64	5	0	0.928	33	26	0	0.559
Steelers	57	13	1	0.810	28	29	0	0.491	59	18	1	0.763	26	24	0	0.520
Colts	80	27	0	0.748	11	10	0	0.524	43	8	0	0.843	48	29	0	0.623
Chargers	53	24	0	0.688	18	33	0	0.353	45	19	0	0.703	26	38	0	0.406
Packers	50	22	0	0.694	25	31	0	0.446	47	17	0	0.734	28	36	0	0.438
Cowboys	46	14	0	0.767	20	48	0	0.294	48	32	0	0.600	18	30	0	0.375
Eagles	52	13	0	0.800	29	33	1	0.468	60	23	1	0.720	21	23	0	0.477
Ravens	29	19	0	0.604	42	38	0	0.525	62	32	0	0.660	9	25	0	0.265
Seahawks	50	27	0	0.649	21	30	0	0.412	47	15	0	0.758	24	42	0	0.364
Jets	42	23	0	0.646	20	43	0	0.317	37	21	0	0.638	25	45	0	0.357
Broncos	51	22	0	0.699	23	32	0	0.418	49	22	0	0.690	25	32	0	0.439
Rams	44	29	0	0.603	16	39	0	0.291	41	25	0	0.621	19	43	0	0.306
Dolphins	32	17	0	0.653	29	50	0	0.367	43	27	0	0.614	18	40	0	0.310
Panthers	33	13	0	0.717	31	51	0	0.378	47	27	0	0.635	17	37	0	0.315
Bears	25	7	0	0.781	44	52	0	0.458	56	31	0	0.644	14	27	0	0.341
Giants	40	23	0	0.635	28	37	0	0.431	44	21	0	0.677	24	39	0	0.381
Titans	35	18	0	0.660	35	40	0	0.467	48	15	0	0.762	22	43	0	0.338
Falcons	45	16	0	0.738	17	49	1	0.261	37	16	0	0.698	25	49	1	0.340
Buccaneers	36	12	0	0.750	30	50	0	0.375	54	35	0	0.607	12	27	0	0.308
Saints	43	28	0	0.606	17	40	0	0.298	40	21	0	0.656	20	47	0	0.299
Chiefs	46	31	0	0.597	13	38	0	0.255	30	19	0	0.612	29	50	0	0.367
Vikings	39	24	0	0.619	22	43	0	0.338	44	22	0	0.667	17	45	0	0.274
Bills	27	22	0	0.551	25	54	0	0.316	39	21	0	0.650	13	55	0	0.191
Jaguars	44	24	0	0.647	18	42	0	0.300	41	22	0	0.651	21	44	0	0.323
Browns	25	11	0	0.694	24	68	0	0.261	35	36	0	0.493	14	43	0	0.246
49ers	32	21	0	0.604	21	54	0	0.280	34	25	0	0.576	20	49	0	0.290
Bengals	39	26	0	0.600	15	47	1	0.246	34	19	1	0.639	20	54	0	0.270
Redskins	32	22	0	0.593	26	48	0	0.351	45	30	0	0.600	13	40	0	0.245
Cardinals	33	24	0	0.579	16	55	0	0.225	28	28	0	0.500	21	51	0	0.292
Raiders	30	20	0	0.600	15	63	0	0.192	30	28	0	0.517	15	55	0	0.214
Texans	24	31	0	0.436	16	41	0	0.281	30	21	0	0.588	10	51	0	0.164
Lions	17	21	0	0.447	14	76	0	0.156	20	28	0	0.417	11	69	0	0.138
Total	1308	658	1	0.665	729	1381	3	0.346	1381	729	3	0.654	658	1308	1	0.335

And finally, Win/Loss records when the offense is above average, and the defense holds the other team below average:

Team	Above Average				Below Average
Team	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Falcons	22	0	0	1.000	2	33	1	0.069
Titans	19	0	0	1.000	6	25	0	0.194
Patriots	47	1	0	0.979	3	13	0	0.188
Eagles	32	1	0	0.970	1	11	0	0.083
Jets	20	1	0	0.952	3	23	0	0.115
Panthers	20	1	0	0.952	4	25	0	0.138
Bears	17	1	0	0.944	5	22	0	0.185
Chargers	29	2	0	0.935	2	16	0	0.111
Buccaneers	27	2	0	0.931	3	17	0	0.150
Cowboys	30	3	0	0.909	2	19	0	0.095
Steelers	32	3	1	0.903	1	14	0	0.067
Jaguars	25	3	0	0.893	2	23	0	0.080
Colts	33	4	0	0.892	1	6	0	0.143
Packers	24	3	0	0.889	2	17	0	0.105
Broncos	32	4	0	0.889	6	14	0	0.300
Lions	8	1	0	0.889	2	49	0	0.039
Vikings	23	3	0	0.885	1	24	0	0.040
Seahawks	28	4	0	0.875	2	19	0	0.095
Chiefs	21	3	0	0.875	4	22	0	0.154
Browns	14	2	0	0.875	3	34	0	0.081
Cardinals	13	2	0	0.867	1	29	0	0.033
49ers	18	3	0	0.857	5	32	0	0.135
Bills	18	3	0	0.857	4	36	0	0.100
Rams	28	5	0	0.848	3	19	0	0.136
Dolphins	20	4	0	0.833	6	27	0	0.182
Saints	25	5	0	0.833	2	24	0	0.077
Bengals	20	4	0	0.833	1	32	0	0.030
Ravens	24	5	0	0.828	4	11	0	0.267
Texans	14	3	0	0.824	0	23	0	0.000
Redskins	22	5	0	0.815	3	23	0	0.115
Raiders	17	4	0	0.810	2	39	0	0.049
Giants	20	5	0	0.800	4	21	0	0.160
Total	742	90	1	0.891	90	742	1	0.109

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Comments

Best of the series yet!

I’ve always loved the DSR page at FO, and the Colts have always dominated that page—their O is often so dominant that they rank very highly in the combined/net DSR stats as well..

And what you said about average D is only a portion of it (and I have been harping on this for at least a year now): Remember that Manning and Co have the highest DSR on O, but that is with the fewest drives in the league over that span. So an average D not only stops the opponents once or twice more a game (one good DT and we’re there! 1.5 more third down stops per game! It’s not much.) it gives Manning & Co the ball 24 more times a season. What can the most efficient O do with the ball 24 more times a season?

LOT

DAMAGE

An average D makes this team very very dangerous. A good D means the oppoonents, even the better ones, must be both good and lucky to beat them. Think how lucky SD was in the playoffs against us last year when EVERYTHING broke their way and they still needed OT to win. Now imagine if we forced one more punt instead of giving up another short field TD to them… no OT. And that was a team without Brackett, missing 1 starting CB, and with 3 DTs fewer than we’ll have going into 09.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Jul 2, 2009 12:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sad to think we're on the back side of Peyton's career

and still hoping for a defense to give him respectable field time. The haters will never acknowledge this factor. I hope he gets the extra help this season.

by coltsfanawalt on Jul 2, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

IT'S GOTTA HAPPEN SOMETIME

If he’s NOT on the “second nine” of his career, then he is a Ripkenesque freak. I doubt another 7 seaons could happen, but five…? Maybe. However, I assume he’ll want to move on to other things in a few years. Business, politics, philanthropy, curing cancer… I wonder if they’re putting off starting a family because of lack of time in his current role.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Jul 2, 2009 4:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Peyton doesn't strike me as the kind of guy

who “moves on to other things”. The guy eats, sleeps, and breathes football. I would be shocked if he doesn’t immediately go into coaching after his retirement. Pure stats says he’s on the second half of his career, but he was league MVP last year. Hard to think he’s within spitting distance of hanging them up.

by slash196 on Jul 2, 2009 8:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't imagine life without Peyton under center.

I’ve seen some Bills games where Jim Kelly was still on the sidelines cheering for them. I can picture Peyton doing that for the Colts. But I believe it’s going to be a long time from now, The man is a freak of nature when it comes to taking care of himself and working out. When he’s not out there single handedly saving children from childhood obesity, he’s thinking this: football, football, football………

"You can't defend the perfect throw, what can I say?" Peyton quoting Marino

by Indy Lori on Jul 2, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another thing DSR tells us...

is that the Colts more than anyone else in the NFL should rarely punt. (Yes I subscribe to the TMQ school of thought on limited punting). The stats say even an average team in terms of DSR should rarely punt. I’m guessing with the Colts high DSR they should punt in far less circumstances than an average team.

by Rob-Westside on Jul 2, 2009 10:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed in general on punting league-wide

and for us in particular.

One issue is that the team would have to be mentally prepared if that is their game plan—hey, we may not make it and the D has to be ready to step up. If it is woven into fabric of the game and not a one-time deperation event (i.e. we have to make this 4th down to win the game) they should adapt.

A big “pro” is that it puts your foot on the opponent’s throat and makes them desperate. If they know you will never let up, damn, talk about a morale killer. Who can forget Jeff Fisher, hopelessly outmanned, starting a game with an on-side KO and kicking two more that game? Desperate teams make mistakes.

One obstacle is that if everybody starts doing it, the game will fundamentally change and you might not have the advantage anymore. Well, as long as 18 is there, we’ll have at least the same advntage we have on every other down. But until a good portion of the league does it, our WRs will actually find a cushion on 3rd and 5 and gladly take a 4 yard gain that will be given to them as a mental mistake because we KNOW we have one more shot, but the D is used to playing the other 15 games and all their practices against a team that has lost the battle when they only gain 4 on 3rd and 5.

It might keep Scifres out of a game!
Anything that pushes that turd into early retirement and obscurity is okay with me. Let’s see him brag in 30 years to a roomful of youth football players. “I was a punter on the Chargers and single-handedly won a playoff game with my foot.” “Uh, mister, what’s a punter?” I am dancing a little dance of joy at the very prospect.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Jul 2, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs