WR stats, best 8 year totals
by shake n bake on Jul 1, 2009 1:00 AM EDT
in Analysis
23 comments
My last post gave the best and worst single seasons, now here are the best and worst of the whole 8 year span.
Top 20 Rec over Ave
| WR | Targets | Catch% | AY/R | Rec Over Ave |
| Marvin Harrison | 1037 | 64.5% | 9.8 | 84.1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 839 | 65.4% | 10.5 | 83.1 |
| Derrick Mason | 1062 | 64.0% | 9.5 | 77.2 |
| Torry Holt | 1222 | 60.2% | 10.8 | 61.7 |
| Hines Ward | 1050 | 64.4% | 7.7 | 53.5 |
| T.J. Houshmand | 732 | 66.4% | 7.4 | 48.8 |
| Bobby Engram | 561 | 66.8% | 7.7 | 42.6 |
| Keenan McCardell | 600 | 62.5% | 9.5 | 34.4 |
| Troy Brown | 462 | 69.3% | 6.1 | 32.7 |
| Donald Driver | 891 | 60,6% | 9.3 | 32.2 |
| Wes Welker | 395 | 73.4% | 4.6 | 31.0 |
| Eric Parker | 221 | 68.8% | 10.7 | 29.8 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 713 | 59.8% | 10.4 | 29.3 |
| Issac Bruce | 906 | 58.2% | 11.0 | 28.9 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 454 | 62.8% | 9.3 | 26.3 |
| Eddie Kennison | 556 | 58.1% | 12.3 | 25.2 |
| Chad Ochocinco | 1025 | 57.0% | 11.4 | 25.1 |
| Andre Johnson | 790 | 61.2% | 8.2 | 24.0 |
| Steve Smith | 804 | 61.3% | 8.1 | 21.7 |
| Rod Smith | 788 | 62.4% | 7.4 | 20.9 |
The Colts duo top the list, but not far back at all is Derrick Mason. None of Mason's past 8 seasons have had a catch% below 60.7% (57.1% is the average), and his AirYards per Reception over the last 8 years is only a tenth of a yard below league average.
Bottom 20 Rec over Ave
| WR | Targets | Catch% | AY/R | Rec Over Ave |
| David Patten | 449 | 51.8% | 10.5 | -17.1 |
| David Terrell | 238 | 50.0% | 8.9 | -18.0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 941 | 51.3% | 12.5 | -19.0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 919 | 54.0% | 10.0 | -19.1 |
| Amani Toomer | 884 | 52.8% | 10.8 | -20.1 |
| Raghib Ismail | 134 | 39.6% | 11.3 | -20.1 |
| Jerry Porter | 507 | 51.9% | 10.2 | -20.1 |
| Quincy Morgan | 317 | 48.9% | 10.6 | -20.6 |
| Dez White | 339 | 51.6% | 8.1 | -24.2 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 256 | 44.5% | 11.7 | -24.6 |
| Roy Williams | 550 | 50.9% | 10.3 | -26.4 |
| Peerless Price | 583 | 52.7% | 8.9 | -28.8 |
| Az Hakim | 683 | 52.7% | 9.2 | -29.8 |
| Corey Bradford | 346 | 46.5% | 10.7 | -30.1 |
| Travis Taylor | 554 | 51.1% | 9.6 | -30.2 |
| Joey Galloway | 759 | 50.3% | 11.4 | -31.4 |
| Braylon Edwards | 475 | 48.0% | 11.2 | -31.7 |
| Marty Booker | 815 | 54.4% | 8.3 | -33.2 |
| Rod Gardner | 463 | 49.0% | 9.5 | -35.7 |
| Chris Chambers | 970 | 48.8% | 10.5 | -65.0 |
These stone handed WRs aren't the worst WRs in the league. They aren't even the WRs with the worst hands, WRs with worse hands didn't get onto the field or didn't get near the hundreds of targets most of the list has. Most of these guys aren't bad WRs, they'd have to be pretty special at something for coaches to overlook their (lack of) hands. Not too many surprises on the list, mediocre deep threats, giant jump-ball WRs, scrubs and busts. The real standout is just how bad Chris Chambers has been. Nearly double the next worse WR. Though it's less of a surprise when you notice the gloves Chambers wears on gameday.
Top 20 Yards over Average
| WR | Targets | YAC | YOA |
| Reggie Wayne | 839 | 5.7 | 1014 |
| Marvin Harrison | 1037 | 4.4 | 916 |
| Derrick Mason | 1062 | 4.4 | 841 |
| Torry Holt | 1222 | 4.1 | 653 |
| Hines Ward | 1050 | 4.4 | 583 |
| T.J. Houshmand | 732 | 4.6 | 541 |
| Bobby Engram | 561 | 4.4 | 464 |
| Wes Welker | 395 | 5.9 | 384 |
| Troy Brown | 462 | 5.0 | 376 |
| Keenan McCardell | 600 | 4.4 | 375 |
| Donald Driver | 891 | 4.4 | 351 |
| Eric Parker | 221 | 4.4 | 324 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 713 | 4.4 | 319 |
| Issac Bruce | 906 | 4.4 | 315 |
| Steve Smith (CAR) | 804 | 6.7 | 286 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 454 | 4.4 | 286 |
| Eddie Kennison | 556 | 4.4 | 274 |
| Chad Ochocinco | 1025 | 4.4 | 273 |
| Andre Johnson | 790 | 4.4 | 261 |
| Rod Smith | 788 | 5.7 | 254 |
Noticeably absent from the top 20 (and top 40) are two players generally considered two of the top 3 WRs of the last decade. Terrell Owens and Randy Moss. Both have catch percents only slightly above expected, Moss with a below average YAC/R, Owens with a significantly above average one (but since the YAC credit is currently based off Rec over Average, a good YAC without good hands doesn't do much for YOA). Moss and Owens were #2 and #3 in targets. Their production seems to be more about maintaining slightly above average effieciency over a massive workload, moreso than being all that effiecent. Wayne jumps Marvin for the top spot by virtue of his excellent YAC. That seems to be all YOA is good for in it's current incarnation, seperating top hands WRs based on YAC. It's currently useless for WRs with below average hands ratings, and doesn't work as well as I'd like for WRs close to the average (T.O. the 45th best WR of the last 8 years). I'll work on the formula for a better overall WR metric.
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THAT IS AMAZING
I have too much respect for your work to assume you cherry-picked data that would heap praise on 87 and 88 and scorn on Moss and Owens. But it’s funny how things work out….
I also assume that Moss’s two years in the desert of low productivity hurt him a lot, since a lot of this is based on stacking up volume numbers over time. (Of course Marvin missed one whole year….)
Each list has a few guys I thought would be elsewhere. Andre Johnson and Steve Smith, for example, rate out lower than I’d have expected. Eric Parker? Troy Brown? Really?
Nice work, thanks.
I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.
by Bobman on Jul 1, 2009 1:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
data for your questions
Hard to argue with Parker’s input numbers though. Parker had a career catch% 10% above league average, while running routes that averaged a yard deeper than average. He was a very effective guy in his limited looks.
Troy Brown is an outlier because of how short his routes were, so the trend line the formula is based on could be further off for him and others out on the edges.
Andre Johnson is low because his hands didn’t rate well his first 4 seasons, then he became a good hands guy. It looks like Schaub taking over for Carr, a usage shift and WRs developing kind of slowly. Can you believe that the Texans had Andre Johnson running significantly shorter than league average routes while Carr was the starter? With Schaub and routes around the league average his catch% jumped from slightly sub par to very good.
Smith is too low because his value is mostly in YAC, which the current formula doesn’t really value unless the WR also had very good hands.
If you haven’t seen it yet there’s a XP on FO right now about Barnwell working on something exactly like this (but with WAAAAY more data from their charters), he shelved the project because he doesn’t like that it calls Hilliard the best handed WR but posted because he found something interesting in the data.
Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake
by shake n bake on Jul 1, 2009 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder how much QB's play a factor
Obviously, this is a good measure of a WR and I love seeing our guys at the top. But I wonder how much a QB might affect some of these. If you have a great QB who is always getting you the ball in the right spot, that should help your numbers a bit. If you have an inaccurate QB, your numbers drop a bit. This thought popped up when I saw a couple of Eli’s guys on the worst list, since he’s got horrible accuracy.
Now I should be clear, I think something like 95% of the stats are up to the WR and it’s really a great measure of talent. But there’s some variability (in my mind) that might bump a guy up or down a few spots depending on how consistently the QB can get the ball in the right place.
And in conclusion, I love having Peyton Manning as our QB (I just found out one of my internship co-workers is a Giants fan, haha)
"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."
by psvirsky on Jul 1, 2009 7:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Or how about...
The offense that the team runs? Nothing against Bobby Engram (Who is a good WR), but his 66.8% catch percentage has a lot to do with the West Coast offense they run in Seattle. I said this is another thread with Shake; these stats show a few things, but you have to take them with a giant grain of salt. A WR relies on more people to be successful than any other position. They need a good QB, a good O-line (so the QB has time) and a good running game helps them too. That is just way too many outside variables.
by MasterRWayne on Jul 1, 2009 10:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
like I said in the other thread
and those things don’t effect conventional stats?
I’m not saying I have WR play isolated. I said that QB play and usage probably effect the WRs production answering Bob about Andre Johnson. The goal is to account for more factors than before (by adding Targets and a measure of route type).
Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake
by shake n bake on Jul 1, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and what is it about the WCO that would give him a high catch rate
what’s the feature that would cause that?
Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake
by shake n bake on Jul 1, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shorter routes (using a compressed passing game as a substitute for a run game)
Or if that includes a lot of throws to the RBs, maybe that only increases the QB’s comp pct, not the individual WR’s catch pct…
Another issue with Andre Johnson is not only the QB but OL play—if the QB is getting murdered back there, he’s going to need shorter routes to get the ball off quicker. We saw some of that last year with Mister most-hit/least-sacked missing on some passes that we’ve come to expect would be long completions, especially early.
I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.
by Bobman on Jul 1, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It can't be shorter routes skewing the numbers for Engram
because that’s the big thing I’m adjusting for in this.
MRW, what was it about the WCO that you thought skewed the numbers in Engram’s favor?
Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake
by shake n bake on Jul 1, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love Chris Chambers' mits
How can you not love a team that does this?
by LovinBlue on Jul 1, 2009 10:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Joey Galloway...
hm. Had no idea. I understand he’s in competition for the 3rd WR spot over in NE. I hope he gets it. =-)
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
by peytonsthebest on Jul 1, 2009 10:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah JG is a bit surprising
and I’m with ptb
How can you not love a team that does this?
by LovinBlue on Jul 1, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One season with Brady throwing to him
Will secure a spot in Canton for Galloway. At least in the “minds” of Tom Curran, Half the ESPN crew, the other half of the ESPN crew, Michael Silver…..
I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.
by Bobman on Jul 1, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, that's a relief...
if ESPN says it’s so…not so much. =-)
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
by peytonsthebest on Jul 1, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Peyton is nominated for best NFL player on ESPN espy's.
"You can't defend the perfect throw, what can I say?" Peyton quoting Marino
by Indy Lori on Jul 1, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fans can vote on that,
Log on to ESPN, and vote for Peyton.
"You can't defend the perfect throw, what can I say?" Peyton quoting Marino
by Indy Lori on Jul 1, 2009 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I saw that earlier this week...
I was going to post a link for voting, but after that “All Decade Team” crap I decided that ESPN doesn’t matter. Peyton has plenty of awards, including ESPYs, I doubt it would break his heart not to win this. (But I did vote for him once) =-)
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
by peytonsthebest on Jul 2, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ptb, I'm shocked!
I expected that you would vote for Peyton in any poll like a teenie bopper voted for David Archuleta on American Idol! ;-)
How can you not love a team that does this?
by LovinBlue on Jul 2, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL!
While I am somewhat obsessed with Peyton, I still reside in reality…most of the time, at least.
(I did that for the Pro Bowl, though) heh heh heh
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
by peytonsthebest on Jul 2, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have an image in my head...
Some where in California, a woman is furiously hitting the keys of her computer….PEYTON PEYTON PEYTON………
"You can't defend the perfect throw, what can I say?" Peyton quoting Marino
by Indy Lori on Jul 2, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
Funny, I have the same image in my head of a lady in Indy. =-)
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
by peytonsthebest on Jul 2, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This was a great article, shake.
As always. Thanks.
by coltsfanawalt on Jul 1, 2009 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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