Finding the Winning Factors - Net Punting Average

by mgrex03 on Jul 10, 2009 10:40 AM EDT in Winning Stats Comment 5 comments

This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at a common, but rarely looked at: Net Punting Average. This stat came about after the Colts playoff game back in January, for good reason. Mike Scifres significantly helped the Chargers, but can the punter and punt coverage be a significant factor in winning games? Here's how I calculated it:

(Punt Yards - Return Yards) / Punts

In getting this data, I found that NFL.com had the Net Punting Average incorrect. It subtracted the Return yards from the wrong team, i.e. If the Colts had 150 Punt Yards, and they had 50 Return Yards, it said the Colts had a net Punting of 100 Yards, instead of subtracting what the opponent had in Return Yards. Oops.

I went back to 2001 to see how teams do. That means I'll be looking at 4,080 games over the past 8 years. I did this calculation for every game, then found the overall average for a game. I then went back and compared every game to this average, and found wins/losses based on being above or below average.

Let's get to the numbers:

The Overall Average Net Punting Average (that just sounds weird) over the past 8 years is 37.9 Yards. Does this mean that offenses are just really good at getting first downs, or the defenses aren't that good at stopping them?
The best team since 2001? The Raiders, with an average of 40.8 Yards, which is over a full yard better than the #2 team, the Panthers. I guess that's why Shane Lechler goes to all those Pro Bowls. The Colts are slightly below average at 37.5 Yards, and have by far had the fewest punts at 458 (next closest is the Patriots at 530).
Defensively, the Bears are #1 with an average of 36.2 Yards. I'm thinking that two year span with Hester really helped this stat out. The Colts come in at 31st, with a Net Punting Average of 39.1 Yards. Not a huge difference between the top and bottom teams in the league. The Colts have also been punted to the fewest times in the league, meaning when we Colts fans watch games, we don't see a lot of punting.
So how often do teams win when they are Above Average on Offense? 1104-1054-1, which is 51.2%. That's the worst record we've seen so far. This was expected on my part. Having an Above Average defense produces a record of 980-919-3, which is 51.6%, which is a little better than the offense. I have the sound effect when somebody loses on The Price is Right in my head now.
When both the Offense and Defense are Above Average, their record is 499-443-1, or 53.0%. This ranks 12th out of 12 stats so far, which makes sense. Special Teams play an important role in the game, but by themselves they don't do much to predict winners.
The best game since 2001? Week 17 in 2003, where the Redskins had a Net Punting Average of 69.0 Yards against the Eagles. That was only 1 punt though, but still pretty good. Best multiple punt game was Week 3 in 2007, where the Broncos had an average of 63.0 Yards against the Jaguars. Best game for the Colts offense? Week 4 in 2004 against the Titans, where they had a Net Punt Average of 55.0 Yards (2 Punts), 15th best game overall.
The worst game since 2001? Week 7 in 2006, where the Colts (!?!) had a Net Punting Average of -8.5 Yards (2 Punts) against the Redskins. Did it matter? Of course not, as the Colts dominated the Redskins, winning 36-22. There were 3 games that had a negative Net Punt Average, just in case you were wondering.
There have only been 19 games since 2001 without a Punt, which seems really low to me. The Colts have only done it 3 times, the last being in Week 7 of 2005 against the Texans. I'm amazed it's been that long. The Colts have had it done to them only once, Week 13 in 2007 against the Jaguars (a Colts 28-25 victory).
Of the top 40 games (51.3 and higher), there were 5 of them that came against the Colts. Of those 5, 4 happened in 2008! The Colts were 1-3 in those games. The playoff game against the Chargers? 51.7 Net Punting Average. Teams boomed punts against the Colts, and the Colts failed to return them. This better change in 2009.

So what did we learn today? Net Punting Average may help win an occasional game, but on the whole, it is only slightly better than flipping a coin over an 8 year span. We also learned that the Colts played 5 games this past season where the punter for the other team had a career day. Somehow I don't see this happening next season.

Here's a table of all the stats we've looked at so far, and those we still have to look at. Here goes:

Statistic	Average	Off Win%	Def Win %	Off/Def Win %
ANPY/A	5.338	70.3%	70.7%	89.10%
Yds/Play	5.095	62.2%	61.6%	77.4%
RZ Eff	65.6%	59.3%	60.6%	69.7%
RB Success	45.6%	54.8%	54.5%	59.0%
Yds/Drive	28.36	63.2%	63.6%	81.5%
ToP/Drive	2:39.3	65.4%	65.3%	79.6%
DSR	69.1%	66.5%	65.4%	89.14%
Yds/Carry	4.125	52.8%	52.2%	55.0%
3rd/4th Down	39.1%	62.6%	61.8%	75.1%
Turnovers
Avg Start Pos	31.20	65.0%	62.8%	72.9%
Plays/Drive
Net Punting Average	37.90	51.2%	51.6%	53.0%
Penalty Yds / Play
First Downs/Drive
3 & Outs	3.92	58.8%	57.4%	69.9%

After the jump you'll see the offensive and defensive numbers for each team, as well as Win/Loss records when going above/below the league average. Click on the headers to sort. Here's a link to the last 5 years worth of data. There's not much of a difference, especially since it only took out 3 years worth of data.

Here are the Offensive and Defensive Numbers...

Team	Offense				Defense
Team	Punts	Punt Yds	Return Yds	Net Yds/Punt	Punts	Punt Yds	Return Yds	Net Yds/Punt
Raiders	625	29130	3648	40.771	593	24672	2482	37.420
Panthers	700	30940	3164	39.680	675	28882	2916	38.468
Titans	627	26714	2111	39.239	632	27028	2684	38.519
Chargers	592	25342	2205	39.083	606	25787	2541	38.360
Saints	566	24444	2366	39.007	592	25392	2860	38.061
Bills	612	26369	2537	38.941	582	24029	2762	36.541
Bears	731	30631	2488	38.499	710	29391	3671	36.225
Falcons	608	24928	1547	38.456	611	26415	3014	38.300
Buccaneers	678	29277	3206	38.453	671	29083	2904	39.015
Dolphins	659	27519	2318	38.241	654	27965	2899	38.327
Jaguars	593	25195	2549	38.189	608	25451	2800	37.255
Rams	552	24237	3214	38.085	562	24184	2271	38.991
49ers	660	28120	3051	37.983	591	24261	2355	37.066
Lions	663	28203	3092	37.875	580	24892	2600	38.434
Seahawks	637	26622	2540	37.805	617	26064	2770	37.754
Browns	648	27318	2886	37.704	588	24363	2815	36.646
Ravens	694	28911	2794	37.633	718	29922	3471	36.840
Texans	547	22444	1880	37.594	496	20892	2245	37.595
Eagles	657	27491	2796	37.588	724	30114	3403	36.894
Colts	458	19694	2509	37.522	490	20961	1784	39.137
Packers	579	24175	2466	37.494	650	27417	2663	38.083
Chiefs	591	24474	2321	37.484	554	23439	2518	37.764
Broncos	536	22859	2793	37.437	601	26603	2502	40.101
Patriots	530	21681	1870	37.379	611	25434	2848	36.966
Steelers	558	23143	2324	37.310	673	28473	2866	38.049
Cowboys	644	27145	3147	37.264	670	28479	2682	38.503
Vikings	586	24765	3020	37.108	573	24365	2345	38.429
Giants	621	25286	2374	36.895	653	26507	2432	36.868
Jets	572	23305	2258	36.795	565	23591	2380	37.542
Redskins	678	27918	3156	36.522	673	27993	2616	37.707
Cardinals	640	27054	3757	36.402	581	25030	2427	38.904
Bengals	618	25136	2999	35.820	556	23391	1860	38.725
Total	19660	830470	85386	37.898	19660	830470	85386	37.898

Here are the Win/Loss records of teams when they go above/below average:

Team	Offense								Defense
	Above Average				Below Average				Above Average				Below Average
	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Patriots	45	20	0	0.692	52	11	0	0.825	59	14	0	0.808	38	17	0	0.691
Steelers	49	19	0	0.721	33	23	1	0.588	45	14	0	0.763	40	28	1	0.587
Colts	45	20	0	0.692	43	17	0	0.717	33	16	0	0.673	57	21	0	0.731
Chargers	45	33	0	0.577	26	24	0	0.520	29	27	0	0.518	42	29	0	0.592
Packers	38	27	0	0.585	37	26	0	0.587	36	19	0	0.655	39	34	0	0.534
Cowboys	35	20	0	0.636	31	42	0	0.425	28	31	0	0.475	38	31	0	0.551
Eagles	46	18	0	0.719	35	28	1	0.555	46	23	1	0.664	35	22	0	0.614
Ravens	38	28	0	0.576	33	28	0	0.541	45	28	0	0.616	26	28	0	0.481
Seahawks	36	30	0	0.545	35	27	0	0.565	34	26	0	0.567	37	30	0	0.552
Jets	27	35	0	0.435	34	31	0	0.523	30	26	0	0.536	32	39	0	0.451
Broncos	40	23	0	0.635	33	30	0	0.524	22	26	0	0.458	52	28	0	0.650
Rams	31	37	0	0.456	29	31	0	0.483	26	25	0	0.510	34	43	0	0.442
Dolphins	39	32	0	0.549	21	35	0	0.375	27	28	0	0.491	34	39	0	0.466
Panthers	44	41	0	0.518	20	23	0	0.465	23	28	0	0.451	41	36	0	0.532
Bears	36	34	0	0.514	33	25	0	0.569	43	30	0	0.589	26	29	0	0.473
Giants	36	23	0	0.610	32	37	0	0.464	45	28	0	0.616	23	30	0	0.434
Titans	50	35	0	0.588	20	23	0	0.465	29	16	0	0.644	41	41	0	0.500
Falcons	33	33	1	0.500	29	32	0	0.475	25	36	1	0.411	37	29	0	0.561
Buccaneers	40	36	0	0.526	26	26	0	0.500	32	23	0	0.582	34	39	0	0.466
Saints	33	41	0	0.446	25	27	0	0.481	33	29	0	0.532	27	38	0	0.415
Chiefs	27	39	0	0.409	32	30	0	0.516	23	31	0	0.426	36	38	0	0.486
Vikings	28	33	0	0.459	32	34	0	0.485	23	32	0	0.418	37	35	0	0.514
Bills	30	38	0	0.441	22	38	0	0.367	30	40	0	0.429	21	35	0	0.375
Jaguars	35	34	0	0.507	26	31	0	0.456	34	36	0	0.486	28	30	0	0.483
Browns	24	41	0	0.369	24	38	0	0.387	23	44	0	0.343	25	35	0	0.417
49ers	27	37	0	0.422	27	37	0	0.422	29	35	0	0.453	25	38	0	0.397
Bengals	25	23	0	0.521	28	50	1	0.361	20	26	1	0.436	34	47	0	0.420
Redskins	29	28	0	0.509	29	42	0	0.408	25	36	0	0.410	33	34	0	0.493
Cardinals	23	34	0	0.404	26	44	0	0.371	22	32	0	0.407	27	47	0	0.365
Raiders	33	58	0	0.363	12	25	0	0.324	25	38	0	0.397	20	44	0	0.313
Texans	21	42	0	0.333	19	30	0	0.388	23	34	0	0.404	17	36	0	0.321
Lions	16	62	0	0.205	15	35	0	0.300	13	42	0	0.236	18	54	0	0.250
Total	1104	1054	1	0.512	919	980	3	0.484	980	919	3	0.516	1054	1104	1	0.488

And finally, Win/Loss records when the offense is above average, and the defense holds the other team below average:

Team	Above Average				Below Average
Team	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Broncos	14	13	0	0.519	26	17	0	0.605
Rams	11	16	0	0.407	14	22	0	0.389
Patriots	28	10	0	0.737	21	7	0	0.750
Colts	14	7	0	0.667	24	8	0	0.750
Titans	17	6	0	0.739	8	13	0	0.381
Giants	23	10	0	0.697	10	18	0	0.357
Buccaneers	21	13	0	0.618	15	16	0	0.484
Cowboys	12	8	0	0.600	15	19	0	0.441
Bengals	8	7	0	0.533	16	31	0	0.340
Packers	19	8	0	0.704	20	15	0	0.571
Eagles	23	7	0	0.767	12	11	0	0.522
Bears	22	15	0	0.595	12	10	0	0.545
Steelers	24	7	0	0.774	14	16	1	0.468
Vikings	7	14	0	0.333	16	16	0	0.500
Chiefs	10	15	0	0.400	19	14	0	0.576
Ravens	19	15	0	0.559	7	15	0	0.318
49ers	15	18	0	0.455	13	20	0	0.394
Chargers	19	17	0	0.528	16	13	0	0.552
Seahawks	15	12	0	0.556	16	12	0	0.571
Jaguars	20	14	0	0.588	12	10	0	0.545
Cardinals	13	13	0	0.500	17	25	0	0.405
Saints	18	18	0	0.500	11	16	0	0.407
Falcons	12	19	1	0.391	16	15	0	0.516
Jets	11	10	0	0.524	16	15	0	0.516
Panthers	16	17	0	0.485	13	12	0	0.520
Texans	8	18	0	0.308	4	13	0	0.235
Dolphins	16	11	0	0.593	10	18	0	0.357
Browns	10	19	0	0.345	11	13	0	0.458
Redskins	12	14	0	0.462	16	20	0	0.444
Bills	16	20	0	0.444	8	18	0	0.308
Raiders	20	25	0	0.444	7	12	0	0.368
Lions	6	27	0	0.182	8	19	0	0.296
Total	499	443	1	0.530	443	499	1	0.470

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Comments

So...

we would obviously punt less because our offense is so productive…and our opponents would punt less because our defense is not so productive? Am I understanding this correctly?

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Jul 10, 2009 10:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

For anyone who doesn't know the Price is Right losing sound effect,

watch this clip. It’s pretty funny.

Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.

Man, I need a life...

Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: Joseph Addai, otherwise one as The Great Irrationally Hated One, is the first and only running back to rush for 1,000 yards in a season without starting a game in that season.

by Cassieper on Jul 10, 2009 11:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I didn't think that Net Punting Average would be a winner when I suggested it,

and I expect the same result for the penalty yardage stat I requested.

Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.

Man, I need a life...

by Cassieper on Jul 10, 2009 11:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

OK mgrex03, you need to solve something for me.

Can you add QB rating to your list of stats to look at? I’m getting sick of sites like CHFF and this commenter proclaiming that it is a better stat that ANY/A and other stats like it (like he did in this post). Thanks in advance!

Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.

Man, I need a life...

by Cassieper on Jul 11, 2009 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Assessment

The Colts have also been punted to the fewest times in the league, meaning when we Colts fans watch games, we don’t see a lot of punting.

This says it all for me. And in the playoffs, this is the dfference between being 1 and done and winning it all. If the Colts could just make a couple critical stops in any given playoff game, they would be looked at much more favorably in history.

But even after saying that, it really comes down to turnovers and just playing smarter as the biggest opportunities for the Colts going forward. Winning the turnover battle is the biggest factor in Colts playoff games (IMO) followed by the ability to keep their heads in the game, understanding game situations and how to do the little things to help the team (ex: Addai not running out of bounds, Peyton not going for the big play so often, understanding that only a QB stands between you and a game winning TD so just follow your blocks and run to the sideline, downing a punt inside the 10 or 5 instead of either punting straight down the middle of the field into the endzone or having a Colts player catch it at the 10 and run all the way into the endzone inexplicably (07 Chargers game!!!).

Been watching the 05 and 07 playoff losses a lot lately and needed to rant about it for a second. We all talk about how certain players need to be moved, or the Colts just don’t have enough talent, etc., but the marging between winning and losing for this team over the past 5 years has been so razor thin that just being a little bit more focused on the game at all times could have resulted in 4 straight SB wins…..I hope Caldwell brings it and the players understand how important their complete focus is when the playoffs come around this year.

Rant over.

"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me."

by AceOfSpades on Jul 11, 2009 10:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs