Full Colts 2009 season predictions
by Colts_and_Cavs_in_09! on Jul 11, 2009 10:18 PM EDT
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PrintYou might be getting sick of these, but what is a guy supposed to do? Sit there and count down the days until Madden 10 comes out? The entire prediction and projected stats after the jump.
Head Coach: Jim Caldwell
2008 Record: 12-4 2nd AFC South
Important Offseason happenings:
Release of Marvin Harrison
Release of Dominic Rhodes
Retiring of Head Coach Tony Dungy
Retiring of Offensive Coordinator Tom Moore
Retiring of Offensive Line Coach Howard Mudd
Re-signing of Center Jeff Saturday
Re-signing of Corner Kelvin Hayden
Summary: The 2009 colts will look very different from the 2008 colts. Marvin Harrison has left, but the colts have been through this and survived. Tony Dungy left, but this was pre-planned and the transition should be smooth. Howard Mudd and Tom Moore are the teams biggest losses. The fact That Peyton Manning will begin the season healthy makes up for any losses, however. The drafting of Donald Brown didn't excite me, but when Bill Polian makes a draft pick, I shut up and go with the flow. Being an odd year, Bob Sanders should be healthy, and the addition of Fili Moala and Ed Johnson should keep him away from the line of scrimmage a little more. The biggest question mark on this team is the offensive line. Although it only gave up a staggering 13 sacks, the running game suffered. This team, in conclusion, is much better than it's 2008 counterpart.
Projected 2009 record: 12-4 1st AFC South
Projected playoff exit: Superbowl Bound! (obviously, I'm a colts fan)
Projected 2009 stats:
Peyton Manning: 4300 yards, 12 interceptions, 35 touchdowns
Joseph Addai: 1100 yards, 7 touchdowns, 1 fumble
Donald Brown: 600 yards, 8 touchdowns, 1 fumble
Reggie Wayne: 94 catches, 1300 yards, 10 touchdowns
Anthony Gonzalez: 87 catches, 1100 yards, 8 touchdowns
Dallas Clark: 77 catches, 990 yards, 9 touchdowns
Austin Collie (if he starts): 45 catches, 600 yards, 4 touchdowns
Pierre Garcon (if he starts): 47 catches, 700 yards, 3 touchdowns
Dwight Freeney: 15.5 sacks
Robert Mathis: 10 sacks
Fili Moala: 2.5 sacks
Ed Johnson: 7.5 sacks
Keyunta Dawson: .5 sack
Kelvin Hayden: 5 interceptions
Marlin Jackson: 3 interceptions
Bob Sanders: Destruction
Melvin Bullit: 2 interceptions
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.
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sack number for big Ed is all the really jumps out at me
He’ll be lucky to get any playing NT, or even if he moves to UT he’ll probably be leaving the field or sliding over to NT on passing downs.
Moala or Foster/Dawson would be the DT sackers.
Also Moore and Mudd don’t count for much of a major event since really all they are doing is changing titles.
That's big talk for a little guy,
but I'm walkin' without reply.
-Lil Wayne "Mr. Postman"
agreed
on the part of johnso. I can see Moala and Foster/Dawson (whoever stays on the roster since I think one of them will be cut) combine for at least 10 sacks, maybe more.
by metal_militia on Jul 11, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Right
If those stats end up being correct, or nearly correct, I don’t see how they even would have lost a game!
"I'm looking for Ray Finkle....and a clean pair of shorts."
Moore and Mudd aren't losses.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: Joseph Addai, otherwise one as The Great Irrationally Hated One, is the first and only running back to rush for 1,000 yards in a season without starting a game in that season.
I enjoy speculation as much as the next guy
But is the source of these “projections” somewhere in the region of your prostate?
normally I just have a feeling. I’m never right, but I came pretty close last year, if I can find what I projected last year I’ll show you. The only thing I feel I messed up on would be the running game. Chances are it won’t be that good. But as far as the record and schedule, I spent a lot of time contemplating what could possibly happen, and I think a 12-4 record will be EXACTLY right.
by Colts_and_Cavs_in_09! on Jul 12, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I knew I would get some heat for the sack number that I put up for Johnson. But the truth is that he’s the best DT our team has. If he can stay out of trouble and get playing time, he’s like a poor man’s Albert Hayensworth (a very poor man, mind you). Foster and Dawson have had their good moments, but they just aren’t pass rushers, they won’t get many sacks, if any. And Moore and Mudd are big losses. They might just be changing titles, but they won’t be on the sidelines and they will have a much smaller role. Besides, can you think of a bigger loss this offseason?
by Colts_and_Cavs_in_09! on Jul 12, 2009 11:28 AM EDT reply actions
How do you know they won't be on the sidelines?
I need some proof on that. And from what I heard, they will be in the same roles. Show me something that says otherwise.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: Joseph Addai, otherwise one as The Great Irrationally Hated One, is the first and only running back to rush for 1,000 yards in a season without starting a game in that season.
They will be advisors. Advisors can’t be on the sidelines in an actual game.
by Colts_and_Cavs_in_09! on Jul 12, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
The term is consultants,
and show me where it says that they can’t be on the sidelines. I have seen nothing that says they can’t.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: Snails can sleep for three years at a time.
If
random truck drivers can roam the sidelines, surely team consultants can.
(“I know they can, and stop calling me Shirley.”)
How can you not love a team that does this?
Gotta love Airplane.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: Snails can sleep for three years at a time.
Looks like I picked the wrong day
to quit smoking glue…
I love that movie.
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
by peytonsthebest on Jul 13, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
sniffing glue.
damn, brain not working today.
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
by peytonsthebest on Jul 13, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
It's Monday.
Brains aren’t required to work today.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: Snails can sleep for three years at a time.
If that was true, about 50% of the NFL’s older coaches would retire, collect the pension, and then return as “consultants” while assuming basically the same role. I highly doubt a team can just smack a consultant tag on a guy and throw him on the sidelines.
by Colts_and_Cavs_in_09! on Jul 12, 2009 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
So, your definition of what a consultant is and can do
is based on your own opinion instead of any evidence. My understanding of consultants is based on this:
http://indyfootballreport.com/index.php/archives/2035
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: Snails can sleep for three years at a time.
??
All that link goes to is an article saying that no one knows whether they will be allowed on the sideline or not….no definitive answer either way.
I am guessing they will be allowed on the sideline, but that their roles will be diminished. For example, I can see Moore allowed to stand next to Christensen, and maybe make suggestions to him, but not be allowed to wear a headset. OR maybe he will sit in the booth and call plays or ideas down to CC who will then pass it along to Peyton.
"I'm looking for Ray Finkle....and a clean pair of shorts."
That was my point.
Nobody knows either way, so nobody can say that they won’t be on the sidelines. It’s all speculation at the moment.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: Snails can sleep for three years at a time.
I see
I thought you were going Joe Namath on us and going to guarantee Moore and Mudd with a Colts polo and jacket, headset and playsheet in hand on Sundays…
"I'm looking for Ray Finkle....and a clean pair of shorts."
by AceOfSpades on Jul 14, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Some of your predictions I like, some not so much
First, I’ve always believed that the coaches at this level don’t have as much impact as they do in college or highschool. They’re still important especially for the younger players, but, if More and Mudd are not around there is still enough veterian leadership out there that there absence wouldn’t show its self in the win/loss column. There is no system changes and the replacement coaches have been in the system for long enough time that team will still put up a lot more wins then losses. Since Mudd and More will be out there, I don’t see any reason to be concerned about their change in title.
I’m ok with your record, 12-4 why not, I could also see 14-2 or 13-3. Bill P has spent some time beefing up the defense, there is no reason not to expect them to preform much better then they did last year, that should give P. Mannign two more possessions agame, that would equate to aleast 12 wins.
The running game should improve, just because all the young O-linemen have a full year under their belt and lot of valuble in game experience. If the O-line is healthy this year it should be a good year for both backs. Brown will get close to as many carries as Addia, reason being is that Bill P. has influence on who plays, he will be pushing for Brown and Joe to have a similar number of carries, especially if Joe runs out of bounds in stead of picking up the extra yard. Add to the fact that Bill P. was publicly critical of Addias effort on 3rd short in the SD playoff game. I see Bill pushing for the two back system.
The sack numbers seem a little off. Freeny probably won’t get 15, just because he is going to get double teamed. The refes aren’t calling holding like they should and especially when players use the spin move this will have a negative impact on his sack numbers, he still gets double digit sacks this year and so does Mathis.
No way Ed Johnson gets 7.5 sacks, he probably ends up with 2 maybe 3 sacks. The only defensive tackles to record more then one sack last year were Brock and believe it or not Dariell Reid, each recorded 2 sacks last year.
Not sure what you ment about this:
Bob Sanders: Destruction
I see sanders haveing a good year starting 15 to 16 games, getting 4or 5 picks and forcing 3 or 4 fujmbles, mostly because he’ll have an improved line in front of him. He shouldn’t have to absorb so much damage this year.
I know I rambled and didn’t agree with everything your posted, but, I still enjoyed reading your post.
Defense if more important then breathing.
well...
The running game will improve, but I’m not sure if my stats were realistic. 1700 yards would be nice, but it’s a bit of a stretch seeing as you can count on Manning to pass for over 4000 yards a season. Freeney probably won’t get 15, but he easily could. Double teams are nothing new to Freeney, and now that Mathis is also requiring double teams, Freeney might be able to get free more often. The reason the DTs didn’t record sacks last year was because they sucked. Johnson has enough skill to get 7 sacks, but whether or not he’ll play that much remains to be seen. And Bob Sanders cannot be measured by stats. four or five picks is a little too much, seeing as he isn’t much of a coverage guy. His true worth is the bone rattling tackles he puts up.
I was probably wrong about a lot, but no one in the world would agree 100% on ANY projected stats.
by Colts_and_Cavs_in_09! on Jul 12, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
it's all good
your predicitons are as good as any one elses, at least at this point.
Defense if more important then breathing.
truthfully
if someone said that Manning would pass for 15 yards all of next season, his prediction would be the exact same as mine right now. Remember Brady? I just hope Manning can stay healthy his entire career. I think people are jinxing him right now….
by Colts_and_Cavs_in_09! on Jul 12, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions
OKAY FINE
You are ALL right and I’m COMPLETELY wrong. Now tell me, what was the biggest loss this offseason if not Mudd and Moore? They might not have been a huge loss, but there was no loss bigger than this.
by Colts_and_Cavs_in_09! on Jul 12, 2009 6:15 PM EDT reply actions
Tony Dungy.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: Snails can sleep for three years at a time.
not really. Dungy’s departure was entirely planned. The next head coach was even picked up by Dungy. NOTHING should change. The only difference is that Caldwell will probably be more aggresive than Dungy.
by Colts_and_Cavs_in_09! on Jul 12, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Nah
Only time will tell, but the Dungy – Caldwell transition shouldn’t be drastic.
When Tony arrived, it wasn’t like the team all of sudden became a dominant defensive team. They really weren’t that good on D at all until 2005 which was several years after Dungy arrived. Blame that on players learning the system, but that proves the point I’m making. Players are the ones on the field. IMO we have an upgrade on both sides of the ball and our record and results should be very similar to past years if not better.
All I really care about is the playoffs and I want to see determination and smart football out of this team when it counts….if they play smart and don’t make stupid mistakes they can and should win the SB.
"I'm looking for Ray Finkle....and a clean pair of shorts."
My point there is that nobody to this point knows
what kind of in-game coach Caldwell is. Dungy over time learned to take risks in games and put faith in our great offense. Will Caldwell have the same guts and make the right decisions like Dungy did? I don’t know. Time will surely tell.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: Snails can sleep for three years at a time.
I think that Caldwell may actually be an improvement
Tony was a fantastic coach and is certainly admirable for what he’s decided to do with his life after football. Unfortunately, his style of leadership, while garnering immense respect from the community and his players in the locker room, no longer seemed to be reaching his guys on the field. Six straight seasons of 12-4 or better should have easily translated into AT LEAST another Super Bowl appearance. In a sport like football, while it’s great for players to have a coach they can look up to, they also need a guy that’s going to get in their asses(figuratively). Caldwell is that guy. Ultimately, we won’t know just how good of a coach he’s going to be until we see him in action, but this is the first year I feel confident enough in the Colts’ chances that I’m actually putting money down on them reaching(and winning) the Super Bowl.
by ColtFanSinceTheDaysofDick-erson on Jul 13, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Hopefully
I don’t necessarily think that an in-your-face coach is necessary, but someone that can better handle situational football. At times, especially in the playoffs, the players don’t exactly appear to be 100% in the game and know exactly what they should be doing.
Inability to stop teams on 3rd and long is one example of that….Addai running out of bounds short of the first down mark is another, and the whole 3rd and 2 play at the end of the Chargers game is a third. And that’s only from last year.
Oh, and I want to see how Caldwell handles the week 17 situation because I am a HUGE proponent of playing starters for at least 1/2 to 3/4 of the game no matter what the situation. This offense is built on timing and rhythm and any time off is bad for them in that respect.
"I'm looking for Ray Finkle....and a clean pair of shorts."
by AceOfSpades on Jul 14, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
My thoughts...
Projected 2009 stats:
Peyton Manning: 4300 yards, 12 interceptions, 35 touchdowns
I can’t complain much here. At first glance I thought the interceptions number might be a tad high but 12 is reasonable.
Joseph Addai: 1100 yards, 7 touchdowns, 1 fumble
Donald Brown: 600 yards, 8 touchdowns, 1 fumble
Like others here who are confident that Addai will return to form, now that he is healthy (we hope), I see an increase in his production. Approaching 1,000 yards or surpassing it is not out of the question. Much will depend on the offensive line. That said, for some reason, at this point, I see the numbers either being more even or slightly in favor of Brown at this point. I think he’s going to be great. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Brown very near the 1,000 mark and would be shocked if he didn’t surpass 700 yards. So… if 1700 yards rushing is the number I would say for every 100 yards Brown gains that you have not accounted for, Addai will not. Just my “hunch.” I would think 900 yards Brown to 800 yards Addai could be close.
Reggie Wayne: 94 catches, 1300 yards, 10 touchdowns
Anthony Gonzalez: 87 catches, 1100 yards, 8 touchdowns
I think these projects are pretty close. I foresee Gonzalez surpassing 1,000 yards and I don’t think he’ll out gain Wayne. Based on the production differential I would suspect, your numbers are probably pretty close.
Dallas Clark: 77 catches, 990 yards, 9 touchdowns
I would say this number is a bit high. Clark is exceptional and it’s not impossible for him to produce close to 1,000 yards but I would call it a stretch. Last year was a career year for yards. I would say his TD production may increase from last year but his yards production will struggle to surpass last year. Marvin was a non-factor last year. This year I think non of the receivers will be non-factors. This will have an effect on Clark’s production, in my estimation. Side note: I foresee Santi producing this year. With Santi and Robinson getting time and production, more than last year, Clark will be affected.
Austin Collie (if he starts): 45 catches, 600 yards, 4 touchdowns
Pierre Garcon (if he starts): 47 catches, 700 yards, 3 touchdowns
I think this is fairly realistic in terms of total yards from the 3rd WR/slot position. I will split the difference and say 650 yards, giving 450 to Garcon and 200 to Collie. This all assumes that Hall will be a non-factor in the 3rd WR competition and not productive at all as a receiver this year. We shall see.
Dwight Freeney: 15.5 sacks
Robert Mathis: 10 sacks
I think there’s a high likelihood that the sack numbers for Freeney/Mathis will increase this year with a larger interior defensive line which demands more attention from opposing offensive linemen. The numbers, however, will likely be closer to even between the two. Freeney is the better DE and will command more attention than Mathis. There’s a very real possibility that Mathis continues to put up higher sack numbers than Freeney. I’d say 12 per is close with 13 sacks Mathis to 11.5 sacks Freeney as realistic.
Fili Moala: 2.5 sacks
Ed Johnson: 7.5 sacks
Keyunta Dawson: .5 sack
It would be an OUTSTANDING rookie year for Moala if he can get 2.5 sacks. We’ll see. I will say 1 sack, maybe 2.5 if he picks up some in a trash game or something. Ed Johnson, there’s no way he’ll approach anything close to this number. It’s rather likely he’ll not get a sack at all. I’ll be nice and say 1.5 sacks for Johnson. If Dawson makes the roster, he may get .5 ot 1.5 sacks. It is more likely that the Foster will get 2.5 sacks in a pass-rushing capacity on passing downs.
Kelvin Hayden: 5 interceptions
Marlin Jackson: 3 interceptions
Again, maybe high. I’d say Hayden 3 interceptions and Jackson 1. It’s possible that Jennings/Powers pitch in with 1 or so apiece. We’re not a big interception team. Hayden could surprise but nothing has led me to believe he’ll be a total ballhawk.
Bob Sanders: Destruction
Melvin Bullit: 2 interceptions
No mention of Bethea? I would say Bethea could get 2 interceptions, Bullitt one or two. Sanders maybe one or two. Sanders will play back more… which does mean destruction. I like calling him “The Predator” because I think that’s the most realistic Hollywood personification for the kind of player he is when he can play in space.
Sacks – Don’t be surprised to see Session/Wheeler combine for 3 sacks or so this year either with Coyer in town.
By the way, I see Session having a HUGE year this year. My “gut instinct” says, he’ll be near Pro Bowl level. We’ll see.
Session
I agree 100%
"I'm looking for Ray Finkle....and a clean pair of shorts."
by AceOfSpades on Jul 14, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but hayden is very good when in top form. He had two picks against the Bengals. I think the new contract will add fuel to the fire, I see him having a career year. And bethea is another monster hitter, I don’t want to project any picks for him. He may get 1 or 2 but his true value is the amazing tackles he puts up.
by Colts_and_Cavs_in_09! on Jul 14, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
If that's it...
This is his last year as a Colt. He better get some interceptions… that’s why he’s on the field. Hitting hard is awesome, but that’s not his actual role. He is the main deep ball coverage man… INTs must happen. And they did in this first two years.
i agree that he needs to do better than previous seasons to move on. Him and Marlin Jackson are both hard hitting corners, but Hayden is a little better at coverage, I really think this is his season. It’s just a gut instinct. so I might be wrong.
by Colts_and_Cavs_in_09! on Jul 14, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
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