What To Expect: Running Backs

Would you think Joe Addai would come back for a 3 mill a year deal?
And for Colts Homer, why are you soconfident that Hart’s gonna start in the PUP list? Isn’t he supposed to be healthy?

1. Addai, Brown has to prove himself, especially in pass pro before he can start really eating into Addai’s carries.

2. No, don’t think he’ll get the carries to match the totals, and don’t expect the line to be in good enough shape for him to match the efficiency (4.8 YPC, great success rate).

3. Yes

4. Very hard to tell, if he rebounds to 2006 form for the next two years I think he’s price tag will be more than they want to pay. If he can’t stay healthy or produce behind an improved line then they won’t want him. I’d lean no because Brown will be under contract and they may have a back to complement him ready by then.

5. I think he’ll get token mentions but no real consideration.

6. Yes, he may enter training camp on the PUP, but I expect him to be healthy enough to go before camp starts and come off the list before the roster cutdowns.

7. Neither, but if I have to pick, Lance Ball, there are enough return options that Simpson isn’t needed there and he isn’t a better back than Ball

8. No, Addai can find the endzone pretty well and Brown seems like he can go between the tackles well.

9. Yes, a bit over 4 YPC with a good success rate. 200ish carries putting him around 1,000 yards.

10. Addai, Brown is a bit more of a home run threat so yards will probably be closer than carries, but I don’t expect him to have a big difference in efficiency, I’d guess more YPC, lower success rate (more boom and bust).

1. Who do you expect to get more carries in 2009: Joseph Addai or Donald Brown?
Addai, because he is experienced with the system, has a better understanding of what it takes to pace yourself properly for an entire season : P, and hit the rookie wall last year and should be through it by now.

2. Do you expect Donald Brown to have as good of a rookie year as Joseph Addai had in 2006? Joe had 226 carries and 40 catches as a rookie for 1081/325. Tough to top that but I think that short of injury, this kid could do it. He seems to be coming out of college with an even better history and set of skills than Joseph. Loved watching the You-tube highlights on him (and A. Collie’s as well).

3. Do you expect Joseph Addai to be the starting running back in 2010?
I remember thinking Addai should be starting most games his rookie year, but it was Dom who came through at year’s end. No matter what, a smart and talented veteran should come through at year’s end because they actually KNOW what it takes to finish. Despite Joe’s sub-par year last year, I would hope he’s learned how to deal with nagging stuff and put it behind him. Especially when he’s got a young guy pushing him.

4. Do you expect Joseph Addai to get a new contract after 2010? Yes, he needs a solid year and a healthy one, relatively. I’d bet Polian doesn’t want to draft another RB high again.

5. Do you expect Donald Brown to be in the Rookie of the Year talks?
Who knows, that’s mostly a popularity thing. If he makes Colts fans happy, that’s all that really counts for me. That means he’s doing his job well.

6. Do you expect Mike Hart to get the third running back job even after his knee injury?
I would think the PUP is the place he will start, gives him almost a full year of healing before going into a game situation and taking real shots on the knee.

7. Who do you expect to be on the roster come September: Lance Ball or Chad Simpson?
Ball. Gut feeling, nothing more. Guy ran really hard when he had the chance.

8a. If you expect Lance Ball to be on the roster, will he be the goal line back? Yes.

8b. If you expect Chad Simpson to be on the roster, will he be one of the kick returners?
He’d have to be.

9. Do you expect Joseph Addai to have a bounceback year?
Yes, I expect him to show some heart, rehab as hard as he can and be out to earn a new paycheck. I would like to think he and Peyton have gotten together and discussed how to go about putting the running game back onto the map so Peyton can have a better chance at using the full playbook as the year progresses.

10. Which back to you expect to have the most yards?
Brown, with fewer touches.

1) Addai

2) No, I think 500-750 yards on 80-100 carries and 10-15 catches seems about right for Brown, but it won’t surprise me if he comes close to Addai’s rockie numbers.

3) Yep

4) No, even if he’s healthy

1. Who do you expect to get more carries in 2009: Joseph Addai or Donald Brown?

Brown.

2. Do you expect Donald Brown to have as good of a rookie year as Joseph Addai had in 2006?

If the season plays out like I think it will, he’ll have a better season than Addai did in 2006.

3. Do you expect Joseph Addai to be the starting running back in 2010?

Yes, but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything.

4. Do you expect Joseph Addai to get a new contract after 2010?

No.

5. Do you expect Donald Brown to be in the Rookie of the Year talks?

Yes, he’ll win it.

6. Do you expect Mike Hart to get the third running back job even after his knee injury?

No, I think Lance Ball will snatch it from him.

7. Who do you expect to be on the roster come September: Lance Ball or Chad Simpson?

Lance Ball, Simpson is horrible.

8a. If you expect Lance Ball to be on the roster, will he be the goal line back?

No, he’ll get very limited touches until Addai gets hurt again.

8b. If you expect Chad Simpson to be on the roster, will he be one of the kick returners?

No, he was horrible.

9. Do you expect Joseph Addai to have a bounceback year?

I don’t care if Addai has a bounceback year. I just want the running game to perform like in years past.

To answer the question directly, no I don’t, but I hope he does.

10. Which back to you expect to have the most yards?

Donald Brown.

1. Joseph Addai

2. No, I doubt it. He’ll have a good year, but I don’t think it will be like Addai’s rookie season. Plus, Addai is a better back now, than Rhodes was when he was splitting carries with him, so Brown won’t have the type of season that Addai did.

3. Yes, he’s not as bad as everyone makes him seem.

4. Yes, if he’s able to stay healthy and be productive.

5. Yes, most likely.

6. Yes.

7. Chad Simpson.

8b. Possibly, especially if Pierre Garcon starts.

9. Yes, I do. He’ll shut his critics up.

10. Addai, he’ll return to tip-top shape. Guarenteed.

1. Addai, but it’ll be a 55/30/15 thing, mostly due to Addai getting the lion’s share early in the season.
2. Better. Addai is a better RB than Rhodes.
3. Yes.
4. Yes, but something reasonable. He has yet to develop into a superduper star.
5. Possibly. Depends on how well the QBs do.
6. Depends on how well he comes back.
7. Neither.
8a. Nope.
8b. Nope.
9. Yup. Healthy Addai + Healthy O-line + Complimentary back to take some wear and tear off = 1000+ yd. season
10. Addai. He’ll break off more long runs. Brown will be that “Get us three yards when we need two” kind of guy.

1. Who do you expect to get more carries in 2009: Joseph Addai or Donald Brown?
Joe Joe

2. Do you expect Donald Brown to have as good of a rookie year as Joseph Addai had in 2006?
Maybe better. The duo is much more talented as a whole than Dom/Joe

3. Do you expect Joseph Addai to be the starting running back in 2010?
Yes

4. Do you expect Joseph Addai to get a new contract after 2010?
Like most other people say, it depends on his productivity, his asking price, and the presence of a cap going into the 2011 season

5. Do you expect Donald Brown to be in the Rookie of the Year talks?
Possibly. I guess it depends on who wins the quarterback job in San Fran. I am a huge Crabtree fan and I think he will win it if he can operate in the right environment, which Singletary seems to be making. Also, our O-Line situation will play a lot into all of these questions.

6. Do you expect Mike Hart to get the third running back job even after his knee injury?
More than likely. I love Hart, but I honestly think that Lance Ball will be able to handle the load if Hart is a no-go.

7. Who do you expect to be on the roster come September: Lance Ball or Chad Simpson?
Lance Ball

8a. If you expect Lance Ball to be on the roster, will he be the goal line back?
Lance Ball

8b. If you expect Chad Simpson to be on the roster, will he be one of the kick returners?
No. Unless he has improved significantly, or is more productive in Ray Rychleski’s new scheme.

9. Do you expect Joseph Addai to have a bounceback year?
Definitely, though that isn’t hard. But I think both main backs may break 1000 yards.

10. Which back to you expect to have the most yards?
I expect Brown might have more yards due to his explosively, but Addai will be more consistent.

All in all, the running game looks like it might be of the caliber to lead us to another title. And with P Manning under center, we could put up some serious total yards of offense this year.

.. This kid just flat out knows how to run. His non-teachable instincts are incredible. Addai will benefit from having a legitimate back up to split the carries but Joseph will still bear most of them in my opinion. I wouldn’t put it totally past Donald to have such a good year that he produces more than Joseph and starts in the playoffs.

Check out this Donald Brown footage .. this kid is good:

http://www.santini35.com/Blog/?p=215

1. Who do you expect to get more carries in 2009: Joseph Addai or Donald Brown? Brown

2. Do you expect Donald Brown to have as good of a rookie year as Joseph Addai had in 2006? Yes, in fact better.

3. Do you expect Joseph Addai to be the starting running back in 2010? No

4. Do you expect Joseph Addai to get a new contract after 2010? No

5. Do you expect Donald Brown to be in the Rookie of the Year talks? Yes

6. Do you expect Mike Hart to get the third running back job even after his knee injury? Yes

7. Who do you expect to be on the roster come September: Lance Ball or Chad Simpson? Ball

8a. If you expect Lance Ball to be on the roster, will he be the goal line back? Yes

8b. If you expect Chad Simpson to be on the roster, will he be one of the kick returners? No

9. Do you expect Joseph Addai to have a bounceback year? No, he will continue on the path he started the last half of 2007.

10. Which back to you expect to have the most yards? Brown

I predicted at the start of last season that Addai was going to have a terrible year. I was called all kinds of crazy (none of this was on this board). I predict that he will do more of the same this year.

I fall into the same general region as Colts Homer and Shake—it’s Addai’s year to bounce back and dominate carries, especially early in the season. By Week 17, they might be about 50/50 in terms of carries per game. Just a guess but I’d peg Addai as affordable when his next contract comes due—I think the league will view him as “injury prone” and “a product of the system” and as we all know from recent experience, it’s smarter for these guys to remain Colts than go anywhere, if they can accept the money. (#32 and #88, I’m looking at you.) If Addai and Brown form the tandem I expect, they’d be crazy to break up. Addai has platooned nearly all his RB career in college and the NFL, and so may not have that “I am the man” mental block that forces guys out where they might be promised the #1 slot elsewhere. Remember how Edge would refuse to come out even when clearly spent early in his career? Remember hos his playoff success was, um, not successful? If Addai can mentally accept “I can be part of something GREAT” rather than “I am THE man,” which I think he can based on his past, then I think he stays in Indy for a reasonable salary ($3M?).

My gut says Addai gets 240 carries at 4.2 YPC and 8 TDs, Brown ends up with 200 carries at 4.5 YPC and 5 TDs. Both grab 30+ from the backfield and add 300 yards or so and a TD or two from the air. Brown won’t get adequate ROY mention because he’ll accumulate stats late in the season, as Addai did his rookie year. There will be some other rookies (WRs/RBs) who rack up big games in the first few weeks and are then the front-runners all season. Just cresting 1,000 yards in the last game will not be enough to dislodge them, even though that contribution might be more valuable and have more impact on the NFL as a whole (i.e. contributes to a SB win).

I think the notion of a “starter” on this team might just be passe. Yes, there are egos involved, but if two guys effectvely split carries in all sorts of situations for a few years and produce comparably (which I foresee), who cares who is out there for the first snap of the game?

I cannot predict Hart’s return or contribution, because I cannot separate what I want from what I know—no objecitivity there. I REALLY want him to recover and contribute and continue his non-fumbling ways.

Ball.

1. Who do you expect to get more carries in 2009: Joseph Addai or Donald Brown?
I think Addai will see more plays, thanks to being an elite pass protector in the league and a better receiving back than Brown, plus Joe already has three years of experience in the offense and we know Peyton wants players on the field that he trusts. So in doing that, I think Addai ends up with more carries between the two. But if Addai is injured and misses time, Brown could not only handle the load, but run (literally and figuratively!) with the job.

2. Do you expect Donald Brown to have as good of a rookie year as Joseph Addai had in 2006?
Considering Joseph Addai was integral to the 2006 championship run and set rookie records, I’m inclined to say Brown won’t match that exact same effect in the 2009 championship run, but wouldn’t completely rule it out. I think Brown is a better RB prospect than Addai was, but the difference in talent between Addai and Rhodes was much greater than Brown and Addai. If presented with a full-time opportunity or close to that, I think Brown could deliver.

3. Do you expect Joseph Addai to be the starting running back in 2010?
It’s not a given, now that the Colts thankfully have a head coach who isn’t a coward when it comes to playing/hiring the right person for a job. If I had to pick right now, I’ll say Donald Brown is the primary back in 2010. And no, that wasn’t a mistake in wording.

4. Do you expect Joseph Addai to get a new contract after 2010?
If pressed to answer now: Yes, but not from the Colts. Depends how the (available) money looks at the time, ie. I’d be more inclined to spend on a Reggie Wayne extension. Have to admit, I’ve been wondering that, two years from now, Laurence Maroney might be cheaper to sign.

5. Do you expect Donald Brown to be in the Rookie of the Year talks?
No, he’ll be eclipsed by players with greater statistical seasons.

6. Do you expect Mike Hart to get the third running back job even after his knee injury?
Eventually, although eventually he might be the second back on the depth chart. The infamous 2008 preseason performance made its biggest mark on the ignorant Colts fans, which unfortunately aren’t few in numbers. Not having recognized Hart as Michigan’s all-time rushing leader and the heart & soul of his Wolverines squads. He’s a warrior, he’s a winner, he’s a sure-handed back with exceptional vision, and he’s a super pass protector. Let’s just hope Hart recovers from the knee injury completely and regains his form as a player.

7. Who do you expect to be on the roster come September: Lance Ball or Chad Simpson?
Definitely Chad Simpson, he brings a lot to the table with his natural speed. “Counter Strike”, as I’ve dubbed him, is most likely the fastest RB on the roster. He can return kicks, which is very important in contributing to the team. CS is a talented guy, but coming from a small school into the organization the caliber of the Colts, he still has ways to go to truly ingratiate himself into the offense. Lance Ball is a solid runner and probably more of a between-the-tackles type, he is also a promising back.

8a. If you expect Lance Ball to be on the roster, will he be the goal line back?
If that is his supposed role, unless there is immediate success, he might be keeping the seat warm for Mike Hart. He’ll absolutely need to contribute on special teams to be active as a goal-line back.

8b. If you expect Chad Simpson to be on the roster, will he be one of the kick returners?
Definitely on the short list of candidates, I would think.

9. Do you expect Joseph Addai to have a bounceback year?
Absolutely, although the quality standard nowadays is probably 1200 rushing yards than 1000 yards. Addai probably won’t meet that, but I think he’ll have a fine season. As long as he plays for most of the season. Otherwise Brown and co. could take over.

10. Which back to you expect to have the most yards?
Joseph Addai.