But if we won’t spend a 5th rounder on a decent fullback, i don’t see that changing

I’d be curious to see some stats about how we’ve done on 3rd and 1 or 2 or 3rd and goal from the 1 or 2. Obviously we’ve had some pretty big ones that haven’t worked out but I wonder if it sticks out in our mind more than it should. I think we would all consider Pittsburgh a strong rushing team but we stuck them on that huge 3rd and goal from the 1 last year (Foster’s huge play). Also, I thought I remember that at least for a while last year we had some unbelievable stats on 3rd and short. This is probably something for Shake or Mgrex to address.

Overall I agree that we’re not a team that can just bull you over for a yard every single time we need it, but I just wonder what the stats are on this.

Could it be that Tom Moore and Howard Mudd aren’t the greatest coaches in the world as some believe they are….that a change, either now or a year from now, to younger coaches with a different point of emphasis or strategy wouldn’t be such a bad thing?

Feel free to roast me for that question but we should all be able to agree that the answer isn’t clear cut.

Last year I was much more comfortable with 3rd and 6 or 3rd and 7 because then I knew we didn’t have to worry about trying a running play to “balance” our offense. I think that 5-wide receiver set you saw in the Colts/Titans game in week 17 was just a clue that Dungy was giving up on 3rd and short runs and was just going to give Peyton more chances to work it….

But then came the Chargers game and the most incredible performance by a punter I’ve ever seen….

The Colts O-Line is full of mobile linemen who do an excellent job of getting to the edge and sealing it by before the defense can get to the runner. The tradeoff is, when you have linemen who are mobile, more times than not they’re a bit smaller than average, which makes them more susceptible to losing their ground or just not getting enough forward push when they need to grind it out in short yardage situations.

That, and I’d still like to see the Colts invest in a real fullback for a change.

Because Edge was so damn good at waiting for that perfect hole, and pounding through it. I think Peyton likes running play action out of it, as the receivers can be deeper in their routes when the defense figures out it is a pass.

By the way, here are the stats of 3rd down offense from last season. The Colts were 10th in converting 3rd and shorts (28/40, or 70%), better than the Cowboys, Titans, and Giants, who all have short yardage backs.

And the 3rd and short I remember the most? This one.

Often times in the past it has been the skill of Peyton that has enabled the Colts to convert on 3rd and short. In 2004 Manning got a bunch of his 49 TD’s by throwing short passes in the goal line because the team couldn’t just run it in.

The issue is that I am just tired of seeing Manning have to do everything. Its foolish to rely on one player like that regardless of how great he is. Teams when Super Bowls not individual players. The team needs to give Manning some more help especially in 3rd and short.

Just like play action, it keeps the D off balance. I appreciate a good jab in the face as much as the next football fan, but subtlety and diversion can work just as well very often. NOT ALL THE TIME, of course. If the DLs think they may have to run laterally half the time, then they cannot tee off and charge straight ahead every snap.

If we give up the stretch altogether, we lose a powerful weapon—it’s not just about the yards gained rushing on the stretch—it’s about the yards gained passong off the stretch play-action, and the yards gained elsewhere on other plays out of the same set because the stretch set it up. (i.e. a DB of S comes up wide guessing stretch and is caught backpedaling when 18 hits the TE for a 15 yarder.)

Think of the stretch, run 12 times a game, as a pitcher throwing inside. The batter backs up a bit, or shortens his swing, and then when the next pitch comes outside, he’s unprepared, or at least less prepared. As an old wrestler, I have great appreciation for the set-up, set-up, set-up, then go for the money move. Sometimes the setup will be a big winner itself, sometimes, it just builds for the next move.

Keep the stretch. And every back has to be able to run it and all formations need to be stretchable, so the D can never key on it being or not being the stretch.

Keep the stretch.

I said I had no problem with the Colts running the stretch play, some. The problem is the teams over reliance on the stretch play makes the Colts a “soft” running team.

Most of what you said is accurate. I do agree with the fact that the Colts do try to run the stretch too much, but when it works, it’s a great strategy. Based on the running backs that we’ve had, the stretch play was to their strengths. I think the reason why Polian drafted Donald Brown is because he’s a guy that can run more North-South, or at least I hope. Joseph Addai is more of a cut-back runner than anything. However, the Colts still should utilize the streth play in their offense. When ran right, it’s usually a good 6-8 yards per carry.

The running game was good in ’06 and it was great in the playoffs. The ’07 running game was good, but then Addai wore out fast and has yet to recover. I see Donald Brown as more of a North-South style of running back. The stretch play is okay, but I just think its outlived its usefulness.

Perhaps we drafted a 330lb OG in Jaimie Thomas with the idea to change out personnel for short yardage situations (I had thought Cornellius Lewis too, until yesterday). It doesn’t matter if the defense knows what you’re going to do, as long as you can do it.

I think Hart is a good short-yardage back (see Baltimore Ravens 2008 game) and have a sense that Ball could be good be as well. But our Oline, as it has existed the past 2 seasons, has been more concerned about keeping Peyton clean (which they do an outstanding job of) than running the ball. But if you can switch out a guy or two on the Oline, who excel in run blocking, for known running plays maybe we can maybe pick up that tough yard. Or, if nothing else, cause some concern for the other team, and then catch them off guard with a short pass.

I forgot about the fatigue factor, which might come into play more the more “two fatties in the middle” D’s we face. How many miles can these 325 lbers put on going laterally before their wheels come off?

Of course, the way a 3-4 D is set up in neutral (no LB on the line to rush) a stretch could be a poor play choice because of fast LB pursuit, but 18 is smart enough to check out of that and into a run up the gut. And if a 3-4 LB is on the line, PM runs away from him. Or towards him, for that matter—that’s supposed to be the way to neutralize a speed defender—run at him.

My view of 2008 was that it was an aberration—OL, RB, and QB health all affected just about everything, and 3 rookies on the OL for half the season, well, I just think the stretch has as much gas in its tank as 18 has to run it. When he can no longer sprint out, then we’ll deal with it. I didn’t love the stretch pitch, personally, because it forces an earlier offensive commitment, and eliminates much of the play-action potential.

There are bonuses to the stretch play. I won’t deny that and that’s why I said we should run it some. However, the Colts need to get back to basics and run more North-South because they spend so much time running side to side that they are inept when they need to run North-South.

Everybody needs to be adaptable and the Colts offense needs to change a few things. Just a few tinkers here and there.

Its stupid to make the entire offense the “Peyton Manning Show.” The guy needs help and that is exactly what he had in the 2006 playoffs with a good running game and a great defense.

Even John Elway needed help to win his SB’s!

It really makes a defense guess since the stretch motion in the stretch play makes it hard to decipher where the run is going or if its play action. The only reason I advocate more straight ahead running is because I think it is a better way to accommodate Browns home run threat. Other than that, the stretch is perfect forthis offense.