Top AFC teams going into the season

by JonnyNYC on Jul 30, 2009 10:28 AM EDT

** Disclaimer ** - I'm a Patriots fan. I'm also a football fan and reasonably level headed.

Given the Pats and Colts are safely considered 2 of the top 3 teams in the AFC this, and most, years of the past decade by sound minds, I thought I'd see how Colts fans are viewing the Top of AFC going into this season.

for me the top 5 in the AFC are:

Stillers - The champs are still solid. Defense lost a couple guys, nothing major - offense gets stronger with Holmes and Big Ben gaining experience, plus the young RBs coming back. Should be around 12-14 wins pending injuries

Pats - 80% of Brady is better then 100% of Cassell. Fred Taylor and Galloway are old but as support players should give the offense a few more options. Defense gets younger, Lb depth is an issue but secondary should be much improved. 11-14 wins, pending Brady's health

Colts - Manning being a year recovered from his injury can't hurt. Donald Brown will definitely help, as will Gonzalez gaining experience. The D I don't know as much about but they have been quietly solid (from the media at least) for the last couple years. Tenn is in the toughest divison of the Big 3 I think, 11-13 wins, pending actual division strength.

Chargerers - *Problem team of 2009* The fact that they've been in the second round of the playoffs or further each of the last 3 years is impressive. The fact that they play in the west is frightening. Oakland, KC and Denver should give them 5-6 wins right there. Getting Merrimen back will also help, though playing the NFC East will slow them down abit. They play last years division winners, Miami and Tennesee, rather then NE or Indy during the season. That doesn't help tie-breakers or conference records. They do play @ pittsburgh though. I can see 11-14 wins here.

Tenn - clear and large drop from the top 3 to #'s 4 and 5. Tenn has a solid run O but questionable passing game. Defense is sound but with Haynesworth gone it's going to change for them, especially against the run. They won't be surprising any teams in the first 6 weeks either this season. 9-11 wins.

Ravens - Not in the top 5 but somehow still worth mentioning because of how they finished last season. Similar to the Titans a dream season last year. They are set up even worse for this year though, let their best WR go, lost a starting LB, S/KR and defensive coordinator, plus they get a playoff schedule going into the season. 8-10 wins.

Looking at the AFC now it seems pretty clear at the top 3 to me, Chargers might get to that level record wise but I don't believe they are as talented or deep as the big 3.

How do you fella's feel about the AFC?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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Comments

Seem's pretty reasonable

except, I do not see SD being there. They have the talent, but chronically underacheive. If not for Denver self-destructing, we probably would not be having this conversation. Also, Tennessee screams fluke. The top teams are never the same each year. I agree with NE, PIT and IND, and I have HOU reaching that area, with another good WC team.

EVH+DLR=BFFr........ God I Hope So!!

by dmstorm22 on Jul 30, 2009 10:44 AM EDT reply actions

Nice rankings.

Makes sense and very level headed. Stop by more often. We could use some sane and level headed Pats fans over here since we had to deal with Babe and Co.

Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.

Man, I need a life...

Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: The World Series of Poker is finally back on ESPN starting this week (Tuesday nights). To commerate the event, here's a video of my favorite poker player at his best.

by Cassieper on Jul 30, 2009 11:01 AM EDT reply actions

i like it

i really want to see SD tank though…..heheheehhe

by MARVININDY on Jul 30, 2009 11:03 AM EDT reply actions

Shift the Colts and the Patriots

and you will have perfect ranking ;)

jk good rankings…………

by metal_militia on Jul 30, 2009 11:27 AM EDT reply actions

I grudgingly put the Steelers at #1

Simply because they are the reigning champs. This said, I think they will sink this year. Ben has taken some nasty hits, and looks very shaken by the rape allegation. If their defense doesn’t stand up, they’re sunk.

"You can't defend the perfect throw, what can I say?" Peyton quoting Marino

by Indy Lori on Jul 30, 2009 11:28 AM EDT reply actions

Don't worry

We lost a grand total of 2 starters during the offseason. The punting game will improve dramatically with the return of Sepulveda. The return game should be much better with the new returners we drafted. Foote has been replaced by Timmons who will explode this season. Gay was the highest rated CB in the NFL last year, and he’s replacing McFadden. The return of a healthy FWP and Mendenhall, along with the addition of Summers, should give us a powerful running attack. The o-line should be better due to experience. Sweed, McDonald and Wallace should also help the passing game. And Ben won’t have a separated shoulder for the majority of the season. Before last season, the general consensus was that the ’09 Steelers would be better than the ’08 version. I see no reason now to think that that belief was wrong.

Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever.
Napoleon Bonaparte

by LV Steelers Fan on Jul 30, 2009 2:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

If recent history repeats, your list may we way off

Over the last couple of years, only about half of the the previous years’ playoff participants made it to the playoffs the next season. Even the Steelers went 8-8 after their last SB win and missed the playoffs. I would therefore argue that it is highly unlikely that all the 5 teams on your list that made the playoffs last year will repeat this year.

Of the six teams you propose, only the Patriots weren’t in the playoffs last year. But instead of predicting which of your 6 picks may not make it this year (that might get me in serious trouble on a Colts board lol), an interesting question is who, if history repeats, are the 3-4 teams most likely to usurp the positions of the ‘incumbents’? Here are my proposals:

New England – the obvious choice for many reasons and correctly considered a lock for the East

Jets – challenging for a wildcard if everything goes their way, including hitting gold with their new QB – and if OCs have gotten smart to the Miami playbook. Last season, Miami had a 7-2 record in games decide by 7 points or less, second only to the 8-1 Colts in the whole NFL. That ‘luck’ may not hold.

Houston – challenging for a wildcard. They seem to have a fairly easy schedule until mid November, and if they can avoid another 0-4 start, this may finally be their year.

Denver – long odds for a wildcard. For all the flack McDaniels has been getting for the Cutler debacle, one thing is often overlooked: For all the gaudy stats Cutler (after Favre, probably the most overrated QB in the league) put up, he captained one of the most inefficient offenses in the NFL. The Broncos required 17.12 yards for every point scored, 28th in the NFL. Perhaps McDaniels knows exactly what he was doing in exchanging a 17-20 career QB for a 21-12 career QB.

by One.Cool.Customer on Jul 30, 2009 1:12 PM EDT reply actions

Totally disagree on Denver

Their defense was atrocious last year, and they have done little to upgrade it. I think teams that will not make it back are Tenn, Balt and MIA. Teams that replace them are NE, HOU (agree with you there), and CIN (quietly a good defense, Palmer back), with darkhorse candidate Oakland. PIT, IND and SD return to the playoffs.

EVH+DLR=BFFr........ God I Hope So!!

by dmstorm22 on Jul 30, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

WRoNG!!!!

Miami WILL be a contender this year!!!!!

by NewJerseyphins on Jul 30, 2009 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions

DENVER!?

by MARVININDY on Jul 31, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Chargers underachieve, but play in the Weak, I mean west

I don’t like the Chargers at all and I also believe they under achieve for the talent they have (Hi Norv)

But they do play in the softest division in the AFC and have legit talent in key spots – that should get them 8 wins minimally, which is all they will need to take that division.

And they are not a fun team to play in the playoffs.

Regarding history, I don’t put too much weight into that. Naturally there is going to be turnover, but I don’t see it being more then two teams from last year, Balt and Miami.

My sleeper for the playoffs this year would be Buffalo. Fairly solid team overall, and TO for one season could help them a tremendous amount.

Denver is tough to see making too many strides in year one, I think KC might surprise more then they do in that division. By surprise I mean 6-7 wins tops.

Houston is getting better but not good enough to compete with the Colts or Titans just yet. Slaton coming back strong in year 2 is a question based on his size, and the defense still has a couple holes I think. They might take 1 from Indy and Tenn combine this year.

I’m not buying the Jets at all. They’ll be decent, but QB and WR are very large Q’s.

by JonnyNYC on Jul 30, 2009 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

Here's the thing

Steelers will not be the best team in the AFC this year. That would mean a repeat trip to the big game, which is just ridiculous and will not happen again unless you have a team dominant enough to have a top three offense and defense in one year. The Patriots may be the best in the AFC, but they will have to prove it and don’t deserve to be on the top of any list as of now. We’ll see how Brady holds up. His knee isn’t a problem, it’s his head that’s gonna be scared senseless. Chargers will have easily 11 wins possibly 13. But they won’t be a top five team. As we saw last year, the top 6 teams don’t make the playoffs. The pats were better than the chargers (although we lost) and they didn’t make the playoffs. The chargers have no shot at the superbowl and LT should get out and get his ring before retirement. The ravens will be deadly. McAllister can be replaced and the defense is still top five material. The receivers are a problem…. but Marvin’s still out there. Remember when he torched the Ravens secondary last year? I do. Flacco has a big arm and that can go a long way in reviving Marvin’s career, IF he goes to Baltimore. If not, the Run game and defense should help Joe quite a bit. Titans are NOTHING without Hayensworth. Not to mention Collins will be bad this year and starting Young will only help in the long run.

by Colts_and_Cavs_in_09! on Jul 31, 2009 3:27 AM EDT reply actions