Where are HOF players drafted?
by shake n bake on Jul 5, 2009 11:47 AM EDT
in Colts Analysis
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PrintThe relationship between draft position and both Pro Bowl selections and years as a starter wasn't enough to convince a Mocking the Draft commenter that scouts and front offices are at all accurate in finding the best players, and that draft position does relate to a players career success. The commenter wanted only HOF data. The results from the 77 HOF inductees that have been drafted since 1967 (when the AFL and NFL began holding a common draft as the first step of their merger)?
What you'd expect. HOFers are overwhelmingly from early in the draft. As many #1 overall picks made the HOF as players from outside the top 100 (9). That is made even more impressive by considering the size of each group of candidates, 24 HOF eligible #1 overall picks vs several thousand players not taken in the top 100 (not to mention the countless undrafted players, who account for 4 of the 9 players not taken in the top 100).
Over 40% (32 of 77) of the HOF inductees were top 10 picks. The number passes the halfway mark at #17 overall. At the end of the first round the number is 47. By the 50th pick 60 of the 77 HOFers were taken.
Jump for graphs
post-1967 drafted HOFers by round
(The uptick at 11 is the 4 undrafted HOFers).
post-1967 drafted HOFers by pick (ten pick groupings)
(First data point is picks 1-10, second is 11-20, etc. Undrafteds listed at pick# 300)
post-1967 drafted HOFers by pick (twenty pick groupings)
(first point is picks 1-20, second 21-40, etc. Undrafteds listed at pick# 300)
No matter how you slice it, NFL personnel men generally pick the good players earlier.
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Hmmmm
I think I can pretty easily fit a curve to those graphs. I am a little surprised, but by no means shocked. I’d love it if Jeff Saturday someday helped mess up this pretty picture—what an old stats prof used to call a “smile” graph.
I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.
But a smile has to be prettier than a simple curve.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: Joseph Addai, otherwise one as The Great Irrationally Hated One, is the first and only running back to rush for 1,000 yards in a season without starting a game in that season.
But even if I dust off my rusty pure mathematics skills
it’s harder to graph. At one point, many years ago in college, I could look at an equation and say what kind of shape the resulting graph would be, or see a relatively simple curve on a Cartesian plane and knock out an equation that would approximate it. No longer. And trying it with a smile without a good tutor and a few beers would make my head explode these days. (That’s why it’s good to have friends with engineering and math double-majors.)
I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.
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