Vinatieri: End of a legend?
Alright folks lets talk about something we have been ignoring and that something is our good friend Adam Vinatieri. Now Adam V is a revered hero. Almost a legend you could say because he is sort of like a good version of Benedict Arnold. Someone who defected from tyranny (the Patriots) to fight for truth, freedom and American apple pie (the Colts). Now that being said we need to talk about it... we need to talk about the possible end of Adam V.
Lets start with what we know. We know that Adam V has a bum hip. We know that he had an intrusive operation on this hip back in June and we also know that he had his knee scoped at the same time (which could mean anything). Adam V is on the PUP list and the Colts are starting to bring in other kickers for pre-season. The Colts say he will be ready for the season opener, but we know about the history of Colts medical statements.
There are a couple of big red flags that jump out at me; one the surgery was in June meaning there isn't a lot of recovery time for this. For instance, Joe Addai had his knee scoped back in January which gives a much longer recovery period. The second issue is that this is a hip injury. Hip and knee injuries are serious injuries. Any injury that affects the legs is serious for a professional athlete even "minor" ones and it goes without saying that a kicker uses his hips a lot to generate power to... well kick the ball. In Vinatieri's case this is his right (kicking leg) hip and that's not good anyway you cut it. All surgeries, regardless of how talented the surgeon is, lead to muscle atrophy. That is when the muscle loses strength due to disuse. Even if the surgery is 100% effective it remains to be seen if Vinatieri can regain the strength in his leg for this season.
We also know that this hip injury has been affecting him for over a year. Despite this he had a productive 2008 season going 20 for 25 on field goals. He was also clutch in the Minnesota game so there is cause for optimism here. Its not all doom and gloom.
However, its pretty clear that Adam V has been dinged up for awhile now. He struggled in 2007 due to injuries (leading to the infamous Chargers game) then seemed to bounce back last year only to have this hip injury flare up on him recently. He is also now almost 37 years old. It gets tough even for kickers around that age. Finally, it's worth pointing out that he counts a great deal against the cap at around 2.0 million. Is it worth it to keep a 50% effective Vinatieri around at that cap hit? Well maybe for the "Vinatieri mojo" I am not sure.
Now no one is ready to plant roses on the grave of Vinatieri's career. The jury is still out on that. He could still be highly effective for a number of years, but there is some serious doubts that can happen now. I think its a mistake for we, as fans, to just gloss this over and say, "Oh Vinatieri will be fine." This hip injury to Adam V may very well be an issue for the Colts in the 2009 season. We will keep at eye on it.
0 recs |
38 comments
Comments
I know.
I’ve been getting concerned about this. Could well be his end.
by coltsfanawalt on Aug 1, 2009 3:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Shame to see
He was in top form last season, a couple of long game-winners.
by slash196 on Aug 1, 2009 5:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd hate to be the next guy up
Trying to follow the legacy of great Colt’s kickers. Vanderjagt, Vini, (punter) Smith.
OH NO WE SUCK AGAIN!
by colts9318rock on Aug 1, 2009 7:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i'd wait to see
if he misses games and field goals………then i think that would spell the beginning of the end.
by MARVININDY on Aug 1, 2009 8:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Or...
Here’s to hoping that the Colts punch it in the end zone at about an 80% clip and there aren’t many close games this year so he can rest up.
"I'm looking for Ray Finkle....and a clean pair of shorts."
by AceOfSpades on Aug 1, 2009 10:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If this is the worst problem we have...
Not to put AV down, but NE managed to survive without him. If this is the worst injury we have we should be very thankful. Plus, McAfee can kick FGs in a pinch.
by smonroe on Aug 1, 2009 10:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Disagree.
FG kickers account for a large amount of a team’s net points during a season, and a lot of those are game winning points. How many close games have you watched that end in a well-timed, clock-burning drive down the field just so the team can get into FG range, hit it, and take the lead, leaving no time left for the other team to come back? How about OT? Most OT games are won by clutch FG’s (i.e. Colts v. Chargers last year). As Colts fans we’ve been pretty spoiled for a long time with kickers.
This worries me.
We’ve got an unproven rookie and some guys off the street to replace one of the best kickers of all time?
That’s right up there with losing, say, Dallas Clark, except he’s got some experienced backups.
Thanks MRW, you just gave me nightmares…
"Flying blind on a rocket cycle?" -Vultan, from the movie "Flash Gordon", for no particular reason...
by peytonsurdaddy on Aug 1, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have a minority view on kickers
all the stats on kickers I’ve seen show that there’s a pool of 20-30 kickers who are pretty much interchangeable as far as FG accuracy goes. There will be a varied range of FG% each year, but there doesn’t appear to be a significant amount of holdover from year to year among the top kickers in FG accuracy, especially when you account for the distances of kicks different kickers had each season.
Where there does seem to be a significant amount of difference in kickers that remains from year to year is in kickoff distance and FG range. There doesn’t appear to be a big difference in FG accuracy between NFL caliber kickers, but there does seem to be kickers with stronger legs than others.
This doesn’t mean Vinitieri’s injury isn’t a big deal, Vinny is clearly an NFL caliber kicker, we don’t know if McAfee or any of the other guys brought in are. If they aren’t the numbers based on a sample of almost entirely NFL caliber kickers don’t really apply.
You think you notice most everything around you, but in reality you're nearly blind to everything outside of your current focus. Hilarious example.
Another
by shake n bake on Aug 1, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As a Steelers Fan I know the value of
Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever.
Napoleon Bonaparte
by LV Steelers Fan on Aug 1, 2009 1:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry
I meant to say that I know the value of a good kicker. Reed, for all his antics, is one of the best kickers in the league despite playing half of his games at Heinz. Without him we may not have made the playoffs last year, let alone won the Super Bowl.
Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever.
Napoleon Bonaparte
by LV Steelers Fan on Aug 1, 2009 1:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I'll use Reed for an example
2005 he’s dead center of the league in FG%
2006 he’s bottom 5 in the league in FG%
2007 he’s second in the league in FG%
2008, he’s right back in the middle of the league
If you are an NFL caliber kicker your FG% is almost entirely due to the length and conditions of your attempts and random chance. The difference in the skill of accuracy between the couple best and the 5-20 to 30 is so small as to be completely overwhelmed by conditions and chance.
You think you notice most everything around you, but in reality you're nearly blind to everything outside of your current focus. Hilarious example.
Another
by shake n bake on Aug 1, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Got any stats...
On the “hit-it-when-it-counts” clutch type kicks? I’d like to see those, since what seems to separate most NFL-caliber kickers is their ability to perform under pressure, at the buzzer, not their FG% in the other 95% of less meaningful FGs.
"Flying blind on a rocket cycle?" -Vultan, from the movie "Flash Gordon", for no particular reason...
by peytonsurdaddy on Aug 1, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the samples would be too small to be useful
if there is enough variation from (25-40 attempt) season to season to bounce a kicker from the bottom of the league to the top, I doubt that relying on just a handful of kicks will give you anything but random noise.
You think you notice most everything around you, but in reality you're nearly blind to everything outside of your current focus. Hilarious example.
Another
by shake n bake on Aug 1, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reed has never missed a potential game winning FG
Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever.
Napoleon Bonaparte
by LV Steelers Fan on Aug 1, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
out of how many?
if you flip a coin and get 7 heads in a row it doesn’t necessarily mean the coin is rigged, and with FGs you are flipping a coin that’s expected to come up heads 80-85%%
You think you notice most everything around you, but in reality you're nearly blind to everything outside of your current focus. Hilarious example.
Another
by shake n bake on Aug 1, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then this non-stat...
Will just have to fall into that all-inclusive box of miscellaneous debris we like to call the “intangibles”…
And Vinny is in definite possession of this particular intangible.
"Flying blind on a rocket cycle?" -Vultan, from the movie "Flash Gordon", for no particular reason...
by peytonsurdaddy on Aug 1, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hate intangibles (at least the concept of it that the talking heads use)
if it were a person I would want to stab it in the face.
You think you notice most everything around you, but in reality you're nearly blind to everything outside of your current focus. Hilarious example.
Another
by shake n bake on Aug 1, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I bet...
You don’t believe in the Easter bunny, God, or Santa either, do you, my numerically dependent friend? ;)
"Flying blind on a rocket cycle?" -Vultan, from the movie "Flash Gordon", for no particular reason...
by peytonsurdaddy on Aug 1, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then...
We could just chalk it up to what? Statistical aberration? Sampling error? Luck?
If that’s the case, I’d rather have the guy that called heads 7 times and got 7 heads, than the guy who called heads 7 times and got tails all 7. You can call me superstitious, but I think most coaches would get on board with that one, too.
"Flying blind on a rocket cycle?" -Vultan, from the movie "Flash Gordon", for no particular reason...
by peytonsurdaddy on Aug 1, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
random variation.
If one person flips a coin 7 times the odds of all heads is 1/128
If 128 people flip a coin 7 times, then you shouldn’t be surprised if one person gets all 128
I’m not saying that having a kicker with a reputation isn’t a bit comforting even to my cold statistically informed heart, but I wouldn’t pay a cent for clutch reputation or past clutch performance if it was my money or my team to run.
You think you notice most everything around you, but in reality you're nearly blind to everything outside of your current focus. Hilarious example.
Another
by shake n bake on Aug 1, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
*if one person gets all heads
You think you notice most everything around you, but in reality you're nearly blind to everything outside of your current focus. Hilarious example.
Another
by shake n bake on Aug 1, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
Not 1 cent? That, my friend, sounds like a load of crap. Nothing personal, but I think you may be in the minority on that one, even amongst the team owners who write the checks.
BTW, thanks for the high school statistics refresher. ;)
"Flying blind on a rocket cycle?" -Vultan, from the movie "Flash Gordon", for no particular reason...
by peytonsurdaddy on Aug 1, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope I wouldn't
because paying for a fuzzy feeling inside that isn’t related to winning is bad management.
You think you notice most everything around you, but in reality you're nearly blind to everything outside of your current focus. Hilarious example.
Another
by shake n bake on Aug 1, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then...
We shall have to agree to disagree on that one.
And if I wanted a fuzzy feeling inside I’d go buy a six-pack. But now, if I wanted to win football games I would hire the man considered to be one of the best clutch kickers of the modern era, if not of all time, Mr. Adam Vinatieri…
"Flying blind on a rocket cycle?" -Vultan, from the movie "Flash Gordon", for no particular reason...
by peytonsurdaddy on Aug 1, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think 8 or 9.
He is also 13/13 in the playoffs since 2003, which is more than you can say for Adam V.
Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever.
Napoleon Bonaparte
by LV Steelers Fan on Aug 1, 2009 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure there’s any reason to worry yet. Plus, we didn’t sign him because he’s the best kicker of all time with the most power or anything. We signed him because when it matters most, he hits the FG’s. Obviously at 50% he’s a different player, but realistically, let’s say he’s at 80% of his physical ability. I still think he’d be hitting the clutch kicks and that’s why we have him.
"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."
by psvirsky on Aug 1, 2009 10:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
McAfee
I wonder how good McAfee will be at kickoffs.
by MasterRWayne on Aug 1, 2009 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm hoping damn good
After seeing roster spots wasted on kickoff specialists in the past (Dave Rayner, anyone?), I’d love it if Polian has found a true kickoff artist as well as a punter.
by ctnyc on Aug 1, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Too many question marks now
I think this is a serious problem.
Even if the aging Vinatieri is back to around 90-95%, all it takes at this point is one small additional injury to derail the Colts field goal effectiveness.
I doubt he’ll be effective for the entire season, and when the team needs critical points, it would be tragic to have upgraded the team in so many areas only to have a season go down the drain due to a few missed field goals.
In my opinion, the Colts had better have a good replacement on-call, even if it means taking up a position on the practice squad with a kicker.
McAfee is an unkown quantity in the NFL as far as field goals are concerned.
When pre-season ends, I think the Colts should make absolutely sure they have a good replacement for Vinatieri.
by centauri on Aug 1, 2009 12:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is a bummer
I knew he had hip problems, but didn’t know the extent. Seems his hip was good enough, though, to boot a 50 yarder to beat the Pats 18-15 last season – ouch!
As odd as this may sound, I wish him a speedy recovery. I’ve always liked Adam. Not only did he do a lot for the Patriots, but he’s a class act all around.
Blogger at SBNation's Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit
by MaPatsFan on Aug 1, 2009 1:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd hope you like him
As I recall his departure wasn’t particularly acrimonious, and he did… um… how to put this… win you 2 Super Bowls.
by ctnyc on Aug 1, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any chance we can coax Morten Andersen out of retirement?
How can you not love a team that does this?
by LovinBlue on Aug 2, 2009 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ja ja
How can you not love a team that does this?
by LovinBlue on Aug 2, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adds a whole new dimension...
To “roughing the kicker” when you have to plow through a walker first, doesn’t it?
"Flying blind on a rocket cycle?" -Vultan, from the movie "Flash Gordon", for no particular reason...
by peytonsurdaddy on Aug 2, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LMAO
Though by this season he might not have to worry about a mouthguard to protect his teeth
How can you not love a team that does this?
by LovinBlue on Aug 2, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice new profile pic!
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: I will be at training camp this Saturday (the 8th) to get lots of autographs. Let me know if you're going Saturday (in comments or E-Mail address in my profile), and you may be able to actually meet me in person. I'm sure you're all excited.
by Cassieper on Aug 2, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by 





















