Week 1 Review - Inside the Numbers
by mgrex03 on Sep 15, 2009 1:36 PM EDT
in Game Recaps
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Week 1 is in the books, and Colts Homer and shake n bake both had great write-ups recapping the game. I'd like to dive a little deeper into the numbers, and see just how well/poorly the Colts played, both on offense and defense.
First off I wanted to bring up some Colts - Jaguars specific stats:
- Time of Possession was the 4th best since they became division rivals. 33:56 is a far cry from 18:25, which was last year's TOP in Week 3. It was a pleasant surprise to finally control the clock.
- Defensively, the Colts only surrendered 12 First Downs, lowest in series history. Great work by the defense.
- The Colts defense also forced 4 Three and Outs, tied for most in series history. Only 1 game last year saw the defense force more Three and Outs (Baltimore).
Also, for the first time since his rookie year, Peyton threw for 300 yards in a season opener. His rookie debut of 302 yards passing is best in the NFL, with Mark Sanchez's 272 yards on Sunday being the 2nd best of all time.
Throughout the summer, we looked at a myriad of statistics, to find out which ones lead to wins, and which ones don't. I'd like to look back at how the Colts did in Week 1, in relation to the rest of the league. I'll also show you in which stats did the Offense and Defense both perform Above Average, and what the record was in the league this week when both sides of the ball are Above Average. Results after the jump.
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Off/Def Above | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 76.7% | 6 | 61.9% | 11 | Y | 7-0 |
| ANPY/A | 6.897 | 11 | 3.931 | 8 | Y | 9-0 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 15 | 0 | 25 | N | 6-2 |
| Yds/Drive | 40.56 | 6 | 25.33 | 12 | Y | 6-0 |
| ToP/Drive | 3:46.2 | 1 | 2:53.8 | 25 | N | 8-3 |
| Yds/Play | 5.214 | 14 | 4.145 | 5 | Y | 6-2 |
| First Downs/Drive | 2.33 | 4 | 1.33 | 10 | Y | 7-0 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 50.0% | 7 | 41.2% | 19 | N | 6-1 |
| Avg Start Pos | 32.4 | 8 | 27.6 | 9 | Y | 4-1 |
| 3 and Outs | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16 | Y | 3-3 |
| RZ Eff | 50.0% | 20 | 71.4% | 18 | N | 4-3 |
| Plays/Drive | 7.778 | 1 | 6.111 | 27 | N | 5-2 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.243 | 2 | 0.436 | 25 | N | 5-5 |
| RB Success | 41.9% | 18 | 68.0% | 31 | N | 3-6 |
| Yds/Carry | 2.29 | 28 | 4.38 | 21 | N | 4-4 |
| Net Punts Average | 44.00 | 10 | 36.80 | 9 | Y | 1-3 |
Some thoughts on the numbers:
- DSR and ANPY/A were far and away the best stats we looked at over the summer, and lived up to it in Week 1, not producing a loser. The Colts performed Above Average in both categories, so it is not surprising they came out on top.
- Of the top 7 stats we looked at, the Colts were Above Average on both sides of the ball in 5 of them, which is excellent to see. The Jaguars can look at whatever they want (like only losing by 2), but they were dominated by the Colts in the areas that matter.
- The Colts had the best Time of Possession / Drive in the league, going almost 4 minutes per drive. I'd love for that to continue.
- Over the past 8 years, the Colts defense ranked 26th in Yards/Play. This week, they ranked 5th. Excellent improvement in Week 1, and I'd love for this to continue as well.
- Net Punting Average is at the bottom of the list, as it doesn't account for what Pat McAfee did on Sunday. The average doesn't look spectacular, but he pinned the Jaguars inside the 10 twice, with the second one a beauty bouncing straight up at the 2 yard line.
- The Jaguars were better at both Yards/Carry and RB Success Rate. Thankfully it is at the bottom of the list, and not at the top. RB Success Rate being Above Average led to a 3-6 record. Yikes.
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Wow, all that work applied to an actual game
And it turns out it was pretty accurate. Nice job once more. once we have a few weeks worth of 2009 data, will you be looking at our opponents 09 games a few days before the game to see where the Colts and team X stack upon these metrics so far this season? Then, later in the season, looking at trends?
(you know, so we can worry or relax)
((Also, I just love giving yo more work to do.))
I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.
I'll definitely be doing that
Probably starting after the Bye week. The Predictor is proving to be more difficult than I thought with this new information, so some subjective picks will be in order, once there is enough information.
I love your work.
Great stuff. Keep it up. Math is good.
18to88.com
agreed
This is really great work. Math is indeed good and it’s great to see this sort of writing, rather than “subjective analysis based on subjective facts” (or whatever that quote was). I’m really a huge fan of this stuff.
One question though, what’s DSR? I remember reading it but I’ve completely forgotten
"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."
ahh that's right, thanks
"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."
indeed it is
I LOVE Math! Its one of the reasons I decided to be an engineering major
by metal_militia on Sep 15, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
this is cool.
Sure it has SSS flaws and whatnot, but I love the amount of work you’ve put into this.
On a totally unrelated note, here’s a link worth reading:
http://www.caringbridge.org/visit/jdtaylor2/journal
Every team has players that do things like this, of course, but this stands out as a lot more genuine than some things, like for instance Tedy Bruschi hamming it up for Make a Wish on ESPN. There’s also the fact that despite being a zombie who will eat your brain, Bob Sanders is exceedingly good with kids. Who would have guessed that?
Thanks for the link!
May I suggest you post a fanshot so more people will read it. It was amazing. And the pictures attached are beyond awesome.
Very heart warming stuff.
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
by peytonsthebest on Sep 15, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the link.
Makes me proud of our players.
"You can't defend the perfect throw, what can I say?" Peyton quoting Marino
Good Article
Reminds me, at training camp Justin Snow came over to a handicapped young man in a wheelchair and spent a long time with him after the second practice. He made every autograph hound wait while he took a long time to love on that family. Pictures, autographs and a long conversation. Snow asked them lots of questions about the young man’s condition. He really impressed me with his genuine compassion.
The other player to make a special fuss over the family was Curtis Painter. He stayed out there a long time with fans that day, and he took a while with that hurting boy as well.
by coltsfanawalt on Sep 15, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Great work!
Nice to see that all of that hard work applies to actual games.
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
hey, ptb
Are you gonna do your power rankings posts this season? I really appreciated that you took the time to post the Colts rankings from different sites last season. Even though power rankings are totally subjective and useless, I still love agreeing and disagreeing with them. lol
Do I believe in aliens?" Stephon Marbury asked. "I don't know, because I've never seen one. But I believe in Jesus because I saw him in the shower the other day."
I meant to post them last week...
I will definitely get it done this week.
Thanks, btw.
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
by peytonsthebest on Sep 15, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
ptb,
Did you watch the Chargers last night? Phillip Rivers is an ass. That taunting penalty was sweet.
"You can't defend the perfect throw, what can I say?" Peyton quoting Marino
I couldn't watch...
When I actually sat there and found myself rooting for the Raiders, I felt dirty and had to shower. =-)
The Pats’ game almost made my head explode. I couldn’t take any more.
I’m sorry I missed it…the call for taunting, that is.
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
by peytonsthebest on Sep 15, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Watching the Raiders fans is enough to make a person turn off the TV.
Let alone the team. Those people are creepy.
"You can't defend the perfect throw, what can I say?" Peyton quoting Marino
Hey I have friends who are Raiders fans
and they’re not (too) creepy. My head exploded twice last night after both games. The taunting penalty was sweet, though.
How can you not love a team that does this?
I think it's all the skulls those fans wear that make them look,
well, a little scary. But I have to admit, they do love their team, and it’s all in good fun.
"You can't defend the perfect throw, what can I say?" Peyton quoting Marino
It was more the fans than the actual team..
I also have a few friends that are still Raider fans from when they were in LA…they are NOT at all like those people in the stands. Although, back in the day (read: 80’s) I went to a Raider/Bronco game and a few fans were charging the field to get to their QB Marc Wilson (to kick his butt, possibly to kill him) – it was one of the funniest things I ever saw.
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
by peytonsthebest on Sep 15, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
That caption is awesome!
Do I believe in aliens?" Stephon Marbury asked. "I don't know, because I've never seen one. But I believe in Jesus because I saw him in the shower the other day."
BTW
keep up the good work mgrex. Its amazing how accurate these stats translate to winning and losing
The caption under the picture made my day, Good stuff.
Oh yeah, all the hard work you did in the review was nice too.
"You can't defend the perfect throw, what can I say?" Peyton quoting Marino
Hank Baskett
Now that the Eagles have released Hank Baskett and with Anthony Gonzalez out for awhile I think it would be a good idea to pick him up.
good idea
basket is a pretty decent WR
by metal_militia on Sep 15, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Hank Baskett's
numbers from last season
rec – 33
yards – 440
avg – 13.3
1fumble
not bad!
Baskett is a good receiver
He’s not necessarily flashy, but he’s big (6’4 220) and has good hands. He had a nice catch in the preseason from Vick. I actually know the guy personally, he’s from my hometown. You don’t see many players come out of New Mexico! Only other notable name is Brian Urlacher.
My first post!!!
I’ve been reading the sight the past few weeks.. I can’t imagine the work you put into studies like this. Thought I’d register to say thanks.. So thanks! BTW – Nothing worse than a Steelers Fan!!!
Thanks, and welcome to the site
It took some up front work, but I’ll let you in on a little secret…
To pull the raw numbers for a week’s worth of games, it takes about 90 seconds to do. Once I can get Excel to format everything for me, it will take all of 5 minutes to go from nothing to that table you see above.
Technology is great!
That's amazing.
But I’m sure it must have taken a while to do all of that prep-work (the one time formatting stuff) in the first place.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: My chemistry class decided to have their first test on Monday, September 21, from 8:00-9:00 PM. The Colts play the Dolphins at 8:30 that same night. I don't think I can be any more ticked off right now. I think I'm going to kill someone. No, really. I just haven't decided who yet.
It took me more this weekend
Thanks to the re-design of the NFL.com site. I was really pissed when it looked like they were hiding the Play by Play data behind some fancy coding, but I found their secret :) They just had to go and change everything I had already set up. Oh well.
I got an email earlier this summer from a guy who wanted to know how I got my data, since doing it all by hand takes forever (and I started this way). I started to explain Perl Scripts to him, and he decided to pay a Computer Science major at his school to do it for him.
I’m glad I can put my degrees to use, since I’m not doing it at work (for now).
Good that you can put that degree to use.
We all appreciate it here.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: My chemistry class decided to have their first test on Monday, September 21, from 8:00-9:00 PM. The Colts play the Dolphins at 8:30 that same night. I don't think I can be any more ticked off right now. I think I'm going to kill someone. No, really. I just haven't decided who yet.
Never knew you were a programmer
So Perl is your secret. That’s dedication itself to write a script to get it done, but if you want easy, Perl is the answer.
I also wish I had time and motivation to blog at Speed Blue Nation
Perl is great
The script I have now is a bit chunky, which is why it takes that long. Some cleanup and it can easily be done in under a minute.
I’ve seen stats like these advertised on the Internet for over $200 for a season. It really isn’t that difficult to do.
and on the jags website is this…
Coaching – If Sunday’s opener showcased one thing, it is that Jack Del Rio is a top-tier coach. I am now once again of the impression that this is the man for the job. Do you realize that in a little over a month, Jack took a group of rag-tag rookies, UDFA’s, and castaways from other practice squads acquired late last year, and transformed them into the clear nucleus of our team’s future. I can’t say enough how impressed I was with the team’s mental preparedness. This was a gang pulled together from all over, and the cohesion already present is proof enough for me that Jack is the man for the job, and he deserved his contract extension. This man can coach up youth, and that’s what we need. Anyone who starts calling for his head should really re-examine the facts.
their fan base is dumber than the coach. ARE YOU SERIOUS?? this was their superbowl. of course del dumbo is going to coach the game of his life…until the game is on the line and they he pulls out the wildcat? which was moronic. the dump pass offense. what a smart coach he is. fires every assistant yearly to deflect the blame. what a top tier coach he is…hired freaking russ purnell…again top tier baby. do they really really believe their idiot coach is top tier? he lost his team last year. he cant even suspend somebody right…see mike peterson. he took the team to the movies instead of practicing in preseason and promptly showed it off with 5 wins. the guy is a defensive coordinator and everybody knows it. Im pretty sure peyton is squeezing the crap out of his hand. and garrard is suddenly going to be able to throw a pass. PUT DOWN THE KOOLAID or get into the air conditioning because your brain is fried for making that little diddy of a comment
the day when del rio is fired is going to be a very sad day and they actually might be respectable again. of course it will be as the LA jags but still. and that is why the jag fans get made fun of so much. seriously!
Peyton
The last 4 games, that matter, Peyton has had over 300 yards. vs. Detroit Wk 15 2008, @ Jacksonville Wk 16 2008, @ San Diego Wild Card Playoffs 2008, vs. Jacksonville Wk 1 2009.
"Pressure is something you feel if you don't know what the hell you're doing."-Peyton Manning
by P0RKINS2 on Sep 18, 2009 7:42 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
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