Running the numbers on Hank Baskett
by shake n bake on Sep 17, 2009 4:46 PM EDT
in Colts Analysis
30 comments
So it's a pretty solid consensus that Hank Baskett is a very good blocker and strong contributor on special teams, but what exactly will he bring as a WR. Is he just depth, brought in over others because of his usefulness on STs? Or can he challenge for playing time in the window between when he learns the playbook and Gonzo returns to near full strength?
Baskett had an immediate impact as a deep threat despite going undrafted in 2006, playing all 16 games as a rookie and starting 5. In just his 5th career game Baskett broke 100 yards, going for 112 and a TD on 3 catches against the Cowboys. Baskett topped 100 a second time in week 17 of his rookie year, catching 7 for 177 and a TD as the Eagles backups beat the Falcons starters (who were just playing out the string at 7-8 having been eliminated from playoff contention the week before). The rookie Baskett caught 22 passes for 464 yards (a 21.1YPR average) and 2 TDs. The Outsiders numbers loved the rookie Baskett, placing him as the 2nd most productive WR in the under 50 target division. Slightly concerning is the 51% catch rate. Normally not something to bat an eye at when a player is averaging over 20 yards a reception, but Baskett made his average catch at a pretty much league average depth of 13.1 yards. Average depth is an imperfect measure of usage, especially for a small sample, but barely catching over half his targets is a little off putting since it isn't totally dismissible by usage. On the other hand the massive gap between his yards per reception and average catch depth is the result of an insane 8 yards of YAC per reception.
Baskett's sophomore season saw a shrunken role and vastly different usage. In 16 games (no starts) Baskett saw just 22 targets, catching 16 of them (a 73% catch rate) for 142 yards and a TD. He averaged just 8.9 yards per catch with 25 yards being his longest reception and the average catch coming at just 6.6 yards. Baskett is no Wes Welker and suffered as a result of being limited to dinks and dunks posting a negative DVOA and only a handful of DYAR.
Last year Baskett hit the happy medium. Getting his first 50 target season turning 51 targets into 33 receptions for 430 yards, 3 TDs, a top 25 DVOA rating and top 40 in DYAR. Baskett continued to be a case study in the relationship between route depth and catch rate. Catching 65% of his passes at an average depth of 8.5 yards.
Overall it looks as if Baskett is a useful role player as a WR, who can go deep with good success, but doesn't seem suited for a dumpoff/outlet role.
Jump for stat table
| Year | Targets | Rec | Catch% | Yards | Y/Rec | Y/Targ | YAC | Route Depth | TDs | DVOA | DYAR |
| 2006 | 43 | 22 | 51% | 464 | 21.1 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 13.1 | 2 | 12.9% | 83 |
| 2007 | 22 | 16 | 73% | 142 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 6.6 | 1 | -2.7% | 16 |
| 2008 | 51 | 33 | 65% | 430 | 13.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 8.5 | 3 | 8.6% | 89 |
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Looks like he will compete with Garcon (sort of)
Those numbers don’t scream “slot” receiver. Which means he will likely compete with Garcon for reps opposite Wayne on the outside. Competition is good, but I’m betting Garcon keeps Baskett from seeing too much PT. This pickup is mostly for depth and ST – not bad luxuries to have.
I'm interested
On another message board I posted on I asked some Eagles fans what I could expect from Baskett, and aside from his marital status, they really liked to point out his drops. I don’t mind the pickup, but I hope he can perform and not Kenton Keith us to death.in his time here.
I’m probably most intrigued by his special teams ability. Hopefully if he doesn’t have an impact as a WR, we can expect things of him on ST.
by goodlucksaturday on Sep 17, 2009 6:50 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah
I love watching the Eagles play and I asked the other day if anyone else here remembers how often he drops passes. However in that same category, I believe a lot of his drops were from deep passes he just couldn’t hang on to.
by Colts Syndrome on Sep 18, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions
exactly.
He doesn’t drop the short stuff. We threw him a ton of jump balls, and he just couldn’t bring them down. Granted, most were close to impossible catches in his defense. But he should have held on the some of those jump balls.
He is surehanded on the short stuff, as he uses his hands very well. He isn’t to athletic though, but is brave up the middle. You will see him make a jumping catch or two up the middle (out of all places) in opposed to the corner.
Bleed green, or don't bleed at all!
by yophillybro on Sep 18, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I like the signing
Getting another accomplished STer may be worth it in itself. And getting a very good blocker at WR is always helpful, particularly for the stretch. If he can catch enough to keep defenses honest and draw some coverage away from short and intermediate routes, he’ll be well worth it.
BEST MOVE SINCE MCFARLAND
I live in NJ close to Philly,,watch the Eagles, if they dont conflict with Colts. While I dont expect Baskett to make an impact in receiving immediately,,watch the runs on right side,,he is a superb blocker, miles better then Gonzo or Garcon. The knock on his pattern running is warrented, you wont see a lot of separation,,but I ask,,,how often do you see Gonzo or Garcon wide open. I ve see him against Giants and Cowboys outfight cb’s for the ball; he gives Colts a dimension they havent had since Pollard. He would still be with Eagles, had not McNabb been hurt,,,they had to pick up another qb (Garcia). Even so most Eagle fans thought it should have been a different receiver being cut. The Eagles are probably the deepest team in nfl for wr, so let me assure Indy fans Baskett is a true NFL quality player,,,a #3 receiver for better offenses, a #2 receiver for most. He may not have the highest percentage of completions, but consider he had Feely, Kolb, and Mcnabb throwing to him. Route running is correctable—and who better to help him than Manning. My prediction not only will he play significantly, but he will beat out Gonzo, as he has much more upside. He can catch that pass a yard or two short of first down,,and drag a defender. Just give him a few weeks, and forgive him for his occasional drop,,,he will more than make up for it.
No losers in this one
I think that Baskett is stepping into a great situation with the Colts. Indy is a much better place for a WR than Philadelphia, our system produces much better recievers than they do. Philly plays more of an underneath game with a lot of passes to their backs and TEs. Until Jackson, TO was the only WR that put up good numbers for their team. I am going to go out on a limb and say that Baskett will have passed his recieving total for last year before Gonzo comes back…I may pay for this prediction, but I stand by it…Assuming that Gonzo takes 8 weeks to get well. I think with Manning throwing him the rock, he can get 400+ yards in 7 games as our temporary #2. Unless they use Garcon as the #2. I am very excited about his blocking and special teams abilities. If he does not put up the numbers I am hoping he does, these skills should keep him on the team. This is his time to shine and I hope he does what we all hope he is capable of. We should learn a lot on Monday!
philly runs a spread version of the westcoast offense.
We like to throw the ball here, almost 60% of the plays are pass plays. However, McNabb loves to spread the ball.
Philly isn’t a WR abyss like Chicago, as TO performed well when he was here. We are just now addressing on WR needs, 10 years into the Andy Reid regime. As Andy has always beleived that its the system, not the player that produces.
But somehow we were able to stockpile some good ones, we had an excellent draft with Maclin and Gibson, so that made Baskett expendable. Also consider that Reggie Brown is the guy we wanted to move, but he has a huge cap number and is unmoveable.
Bleed green, or don't bleed at all!
by yophillybro on Sep 18, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
The Moorehead Test
The Colts brass have long had an itch for a big receiver, and have tried for it with players like Moorehead and Hall. I know a bunch of people on here were Roy Hall guys (I never figured he would really pan out), but, honestly, when you look at it, didn’t both of those guys kinda hang around a little longer than they should have? I really liked Moorehead, and thought he might end up bringing that “big wide receiver” aspect to the team, but I knew in my heart of hearts in the ‘03 Pats game (McGinest running to midfield after being “injured”) when Peyton threw that jumpball to Moorehead on 3rd down and he couldn’t make a play on it, he wasn’t ever going to be that guy. But, the Colts want a guy who can make that play – lately they just have Reggie do it, but I think Peyton and/or Moore still would like a WR that can go up and get that nice touch pass Peyton can put up there like no other.
I bet at some point in the next few weeks the Colts will be on the goal line, and they will try that play to Baskett. If he catches it, he stays; if he drops it, he goes.
The Shogun of Harlem
I'm liking this pickup
Special teams ace and strong run-blocker with deep threat speed and decent hands for the league minimum? Polian made a nice move here.
And as much as I was pulling for Gonzo to have a breakout year, what matters is that he’ll be on the field in January.
The numbers....
Are not as important as people make them out to be. Why? He was being thrown to by Donovan McNabb. Not exactly known as the best throwing QB in the world. I’m not trying to disrespect the guy, because he’s one of the better QB’s in the league. However, he’s not an elite QB.
Baskett’s signing is more than just filling a spot for the Colts. This guy can play. He can play on ST’s, he can block, and he can catch. Most of all, the guy is willing to bust his butt to do so.
Going from McNabb to Peyton Manning is like going from the Lions to the Patriots, it’s just that BIG of a difference. If Peyton trusts you to make the catch, he’ll throw the ball to you all day. I think Baskett really has a chance here to become more than just a filler. The guy could very well have a huge career year and become a part of the Colts permanently.
I remember when Wayne started for the Colts. He had alot of drops, wasnt highly productive, but when he was…. man we all were excited. Sometimes some players just dont do well in certain settings.
Is Baskett a savior at WR? No, he is not. Could he be a great player here? Absolutely! I really want to see how well they can get him meshed in with the offense, because short of the Titans game, we’ve got plenty of time where he can get on the field.
WTF? McNabb is definately a elite QB
Come on. When he is healthy you won’t find more than a handful of better QBs around the league. There certainly won’t be as big of difference from McNabb to Manning as Lions-Patriots. The truth is Baskett have had some very capable QB play throughout his career.
I think you are..
confusing very good with elite. McNabb is easily a top 10 QB in the NFL, but he is not elite. In fact, he wouldn’t even be among the top 10 QB’s picked to lead a new franchise….as he simply is not an elite QB.
Is McNabb a great QB? He’s easily the best QB to ever wear the Eagles uniform, and he’s definitely one of the better QB’s in the league. However, replacing McNabb with Jeff Garcia and Garcia leads them to the playoffs…… simply shows me McNabb is replaceable.
Dan Marino, Joe Montana, John Elway, Peyton Manning, all elite QB’s… McNabb…not so much…
Let’s throw a few more things at you, just to show you how big a difference there is here…
McNabb – career completion rate – 58.6% (only had a 60+% season 3 times)
Manning – rookie year completion rate – 56.7% (not a single season since under 62%)
Manning has had 1 more season in the NFL than McNabb, despite that….
Manning – 45,929 ypg – 334 TDs
McNabb – 29,399 ypg – 196 TDs
Those stats are pretty easy to read…and the worst part of this whole thing is that McNabb has had far better defenses with the Eagles than Manning with the Colts. In fact, if the Colts played in the NFC, there’s a pretty good chance they’d have gone to the SB several times already.
Call me when the Eagles need McNabb to carry them, because I don’t see it happening.
by DevilsReject on Sep 19, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd like to add...
Baskett reminds me alot of Wes Welker….
Welker had average numbers playing for Miami and San Diego, but it was only when he went to the Patriots that he became a great WR. This could actually be the thing that Baskett needs to break thru to the next level.
I mean seriously, outside of TO, the Eagles havent had a quality WR in like 20 years…
We've seen this before
I recall many years ago the Eagles cutting a wide receiver who dropped too many balls (except touchdowns). Cris Carter .
Do you need something for your throat?
A lozenge, perhaps?
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: My chemistry class decided to have their first test on Monday, September 21, from 8:00-9:00 PM. The Colts play the Dolphins at 8:30 that same night. I don't think I can be any more ticked off right now. I think I'm going to kill someone. No, really. I just haven't decided who yet.
Have yo submitted that
to Webster’s yet?
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: My chemistry class decided to have their first test on Monday, September 21, from 8:00-9:00 PM. The Colts play the Dolphins at 8:30 that same night. I don't think I can be any more ticked off right now. I think I'm going to kill someone. No, really. I just haven't decided who yet.
*you
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: My chemistry class decided to have their first test on Monday, September 21, from 8:00-9:00 PM. The Colts play the Dolphins at 8:30 that same night. I don't think I can be any more ticked off right now. I think I'm going to kill someone. No, really. I just haven't decided who yet.
Welker was used a completely different way than Baskett will be used.
You’re grasping for straws here. Baskett will no doubt be a decent player in our system(hopefully, a RZ-threat considering his height), but he will not have anywhere near the impact that Welker had, and he does not remind me of Welker in his playing style either. Welker is a terrific underneath receiver, and I’m very confident Baskett won’t be used as a such.
Sorry...
Welker was a nobody until he was picked up by the Patriots. In fact, his best season was almost identical to Baskett’s… The guy was never a real threat on any team he played for. He goes to New England alongside of Randy Moss and the guy is an instant threat.
My whole point was that if given the opportunity (like Welker) with a good QB, he could very well become as efficient as Welker has. Will he be as good? Only time will tell…
However, the situation is eerily similar in how its setup…and the Colts offense is one of the best in the NFL period…
by DevilsReject on Sep 19, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Welker actually had some promising numbers before the Pats traded a 2nd and 7th round pick for him
There was a reason the Dolphins put a 2nd round RFA tender on him and the Pats went the trade round throwing in a 7th rounder to avoid the Dolphins matching the offer sheet the Pats would have given him.
It's not just your perceptions that can be wrong. Even your memory is often incomplete or possibly flat out wrong.
by shake n bake on Sep 19, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Look at the rest of the Dolphins roster
He was their best WR period…. but the guy wasnt even a top 50 WR statistically…. and that’s why I was saying is he could come out of nowhere and WOW the NFL….
by DevilsReject on Sep 19, 2009 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
he's a guy that's physically limited but great at what he does
I think the Welker comparison seems off to everyone because they aren’t really similar players in style. Welker is a short route big YAC guy, while Baskett was at his best working deep. Welker is unusually slow for a small (5’9" 185) guy (4.6 40). Baskett has pretty nice speed for a 6’4" 220lber (4.5 40).
There are a lot of guys with numbers in the range of Welkers Dolphins numbers, few amount to much even on a better team.
It's not just your perceptions that can be wrong. Even your memory is often incomplete or possibly flat out wrong.
by shake n bake on Sep 19, 2009 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
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