Analysis of the 2009 Colts roster cuts: Part One
We have the final roster cut-down list, written up by shake n bake.
- Almost immediately, there was significant reaction. Granted, every year cuts happen and there is always those one or two cuts where people scream NOOOOOOOOOOO!!! only to get over it once the season starts. But, with players like Dante Hughes, Mike Hart, and (especially) Marcus Howard getting the boot, it should serve as a reminder that the Colts do indeed have a new coach. This new coach has new ideas; ideas that in some cases will differ from his predecessor. And as we have seen, the 2007 and 2008 drafts, which were very heavily influenced by what Tony Dungy likes in players, were not drafts that tickle the fancy of new Colts coach Jim Caldwell.
- MasterRWayne discusses whether Bill Polian has lost his touch as a draft guru. Currently, only three players remain from the 2007 draft, and three significant players from the 2008 draft were recently let go.
- John Oehser offers his roster analysis at Examiner.com.
- 18to88 chimes in.
- My favorite reader comment on the roster cuts thus far comes from Cassieper:
Lance Ball: He wasn’t that good. We only considered keeping him because Hart was injured.
Guns: Always injured. Never was going to contribute.
John Gill: Who?
Mike Hart: Serious injury. The Colts can’t wait until midseason on him.
Brett McDermott: Once again, who?
Tom Pestock: Only played in garbage time, never showed anything.
Taj Smith: Talented, maybe one year away. Cut him to get him on the practice squad. Should have no trouble getting him through the waivers.
Mike T: Another guy who’s practice squad bound. Wasn’t quite good enough to deal with starting talent.
Terrance Taylor: A huge project. Cross your fingers and hope he makes it to the practice squad.
Jaimie Thomas: A huge disappointment so far. Hasn’t shown anything. Practice squad bound.
Josh Thomas: Only good against the run. Putting him at end would concede the pass. Dawson is as good as him against the run and better as a pass rusher.
Michael Toudouze: I like him, but he is nowhere near Ugoh and CJ in talent.
Key and Petrowski: Bad players and injured. Bad combination.
So there you go.
In just a 24-hour period, this site has over 1,000 comments from numerous readers about the cuts. I did my best to read as many varying opinions as possible. After reading the comments, the articles, and examining how other teams dealt with the roster cut-downs, I have finally posted my analysis after the jump.
First off, I understand that the immediate reaction to the cuts seems like a stinging indictment of Polian's job, particularly when you look at the 2007 and 2008 drafts. Now, important to note that in neither of those drafts did Polian "bust" his first round pick, like Jerry Angelo with the Chicago Bears has done pretty much since 2004 (Rex Grossman, Cedric Benson, Chris Williams, etc.) With 2007 and 2008, it is important to note that those drafts were made with Tony Dungy working with Polian. Dungy had a specific philosophy about players. He valued certain traits over others. Bill respected that philosophy and draft accordingly.
But Dungy's philosophy on players is not necessarily shared by Jim Caldwell.
Dungy valued speed over size. This is why Marcus Howard and Curtis Johnson were so valued by Tony D. Clearly, Bill Polian and Jim Caldwell do not value speed over size as much. The Colts asked Cujo to add 15 pounds of muscle this off-season (which he did), but his efforts were not enough to supplant Keyunta Dawson. Dawson made the transition back to DE (his college position) during the off-season, and performed very well in camp and pre-season. Last season, Dawson was the starting defensive tackle, weighing in at 260 pounds. Now, he is more comfortable, and better suited, as a DE.
Thus, the smaller, quicker players like Howard and Cujo are expendable.
And I know some of you are screaming "WHAT ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED IN 2007 WHEN FREENEY AND MATHIS GOT HURT!" Folks, if Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis get hurt again as they did in 2007, it is the equivalent of losing Peyton Manning and Jeff Saturday. A player like Marcus Howard is not going to replace Dwight Freeney; not in this new defensive system. Indeed, one of the reasons Freeney and (especially) Mathis got hurt in 2007 was because the Colts relied too much on them for the pass rush. In a Tampa-2, the front four (not the front two) need to apply QB pressure. And now with Larry Coyer dialing up blitzes from Philip Wheeler (an excellent blitzer in college), Melvin Bullitt, and eventually Bob Sanders, the scheme should (in theory) create more rush without solely relying on Freeney and Mathis.
Also, I think Caldwell is just tired of seeing teams run the football at Indy's front, and having DEs weighting 245 pounds is not going to help you stop the run.
For Mike Hart, it is possible that he could be signed to the practice squad, but I think that's remote. Hart's knock coming out of college was he was "beaten up" after all the hits he took rushing for all those yards in the Big Ten. Last year, he blew out his knee and this pre-season he injured both his ankles. This is a bottom line business, folks. If you cannot stay healthy, you're not going to keep your job long.
And for all the Doom and Gloom folks who think that the cuts signal the "downfall" of the Colts, please take a moment to check out KFFL.com, or browse through the numerous SB Nation football sites. You will see all the cuts and roster moves other teams had to wrestle with. Many of these moves involved players many of us wanted the Colts to draft or sign in 2007 and 2008:
- Buccaneers safety Tanard Jackson was placed on the suspended list. We thought highly of him in 2007.
- The Bengals cut safety Corey Lynch. We also thought highly of him in 2008.
- The Patriots cut Kevin O'Connell, another player in the 2008 NFL Draft we liked.
- Packers first round bust Justin Harrell was placed on IR. For all the screaming about getting a quality DT the last three years, it seems Harrell clearly was not the answer in 2007. I thought he was. Clearly, I was wrong. Green Bay had to suffer through a horrid 6-10 season to draft B.J. Raji, and none of us know if he will be any good. He also signed late.
- Packers also cut Brian Brohm, the "insurance QB" in case Aaron Rodgers turned out to suck. Brohm had a prolific career at Louisville, and if he had come out after his junior season, he might have been a first round pick.
- John David Booty was cut.
- Kory Sheets was cut.
- Mitch King was cut.
- Dominic Rhodes was cut. Hell, Marshawn Lynch is suspended for three games, and Dom still got cut. The Bills are a complete mess, folks.
- DeMario Pressley, a DT from 2008 some wanted the Colts to grab, was cut by the Saints. So was former Colts WR Courtney Roby.
- Adam Carriker, who I wanted the Colts trade trade for last season, is now on IR.
- Broncos cut Tim Crowder, their second round pick from 2007.
- The Jaguars IRed their starting DT from last season, Rob Meier.
So, no offense, but to those who seem to second guess Bill Polian for the 2007 and 2008 drafts (like Paul Kuharsky at ESPN), kindly tell me who he was supposed to take. Many of the players we all wanted Polian to pick up then are now in the same boat as Mike Hart, Marcus Howard, and Dante Hughes. If you want to bash him for trading up to get Tony Ugoh in 2007 and, thus, preventing Indy from getting a player like Matt Forte in 2008, then fine. I think that's fair. But, from where I'm sitting, it looks like the 2007 and 2008 drafts just did not foster the kind of overall NFL talent we are used to seeing from the collegiate ranks.
It's also important to note that from the now dreaded 2007 draft, Polian managed to sign then-free agent rookie Melvin Bullitt. So, it's not like lunch meat came out of 2007. Clearly, taking Anthony Gonzalez worked out better than trading up to get someone like Justin Harrell.
All of us are so used to seeing Polian draft picks work out that, when they don't, we scratch our head and wonder if we haven't been transported into some netherworld, alternate reality. But if you look around the NFL right now, lots of "name" players from the 2007 and 2008 drafts are, indeed, now looking for work.
Part two of my roster evaluation will get posted later today while teams begin putting in waiver claims for many of the recently cut players.
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34 comments
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Comments
Good point
about the 2007 and 2008 draft classes seemingly not having as much talent as draft classes before them. I hadn’t thought of that. It does seem that many teams didn’t have much luck in those two years.
Another note, many people also wanted us to draft Alan Branch in 2007, you know the DT hidden behind the marvelous starting DT’s in Arizona.
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi
by gizzardfanny on Sep 6, 2009 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
in all fairness
darnell dockett IS a really, really good player.
by saintnixon on Sep 6, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Drafts
I have been critical of BP’s last 5 yrs. of non skill players but someone brought up a very good point. We have been drafting at 29 and 30 in every round for a long time. By design, the weaker teams are suppose to get better. This has had an adverse effect on our team. I think BP has done a good job when you factor in this and then consider our record. Thank goodness we have Payton> Go Colts!!!!!!
by RvHauler1 on Sep 6, 2009 11:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not to sound like an asshole, but it's Peyton, not Payton.
fpacheco wrote a great post about what pisses us Colts fans and spelling Peyton with an “a” is one of them. Here’s the link: The Top 10 Things We Colts Fans Hate the Most
Other than that, I agree with everything you said. Even though the Colts draft around the 27th-32nd pick in the first round, they still find quality starters and even Pro Bowlers at the spot. What the excuse of the Raiders, Bills, and the other teams who constantly draft in the top 10? Also what about the 2007 and 2008 NFL Drafts being weak? Polian did the best he could with what was left and that’s all we can ask for.
Do I believe in aliens?" Stephon Marbury asked. "I don't know, because I've never seen one. But I believe in Jesus because I saw him in the shower the other day."
by KMR24 on Sep 6, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great Analysis
You are right on the money,
Like most fans I was shocked when Howard, Grady, Hart and Taylor were cut.
But if you think about it Howard got all his states when playing the 2nd unit. e.g Young who we all know is one of the biggest bustes. When we drafted Brown Hart became one of the odd ones out. Pluse he did not improve his case any by getting injured again.
Grady and Taylor are a slightly different matter because I think of the experience. I mean you have a choice of players with proven experience in the system compared to non. They will not get rid of Moala because of the 2nd roud draft status.
Our main concern right now is to fix the OL and hopefully the waiver wire will do just that.
by colt29 on Sep 6, 2009 11:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Tanard Jackson is also the one put the highlight reel hit on Clark in 07
It's not just your perceptions that can be wrong. Even your memory is often incomplete or possibly flat out wrong.
by shake n bake on Sep 6, 2009 11:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
knew he wasn't going to make the roster
but I was rooting for my hometown guy Brett McDermott anyway. Still pretty cool for most kids to make it even that far.
Keep the faith!
by Marima on Sep 6, 2009 11:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for writing this
…and tamping down some of the shrillness of guys like MasterRWayne. I mean, at least Polian can admit his mistakes. We’re not keeping guys who were drafted simply because they were drafted. Why is it that we assume Polian makes the draft picks, but Caldwell sets the roster? This doesn’t make sense.
by CooperManningsNotTrying on Sep 6, 2009 11:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think both are a cooperative effort
but Polian has final say on the picks and Caldwell has final say on the roster.
It's not just your perceptions that can be wrong. Even your memory is often incomplete or possibly flat out wrong.
by shake n bake on Sep 6, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, to be fair
MasterRWayne has a point. When all but three picks from just three years ago are no longer on the team, that is (essentially) a wasted draft. Yes, some good players came out of that draft, but the Colts rely heavily on picks to develop. It’s why they rarely sign free agents. So, when pick do not develop, it raises a red flag.
However, it seems many teams (including our hated rivals the Patriots) are also dealing with draft picks from 2006 and 2007 that were just as bad. So, maybe the 07 and 08 drafts just, you know, SUCKED.
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by BigBlueShoe on Sep 6, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's getting jumped on more for the method than the content
though I do think he’s wrong and it was just one unlucky draft made worse by the scheme adjustment rather than a downward trend
It's not just your perceptions that can be wrong. Even your memory is often incomplete or possibly flat out wrong.
by shake n bake on Sep 6, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I fail to see his point
3 years ago? That’s 2006, right?
2006: We still have Addai (1 PB), Jennings (nickelback, might not be good, but he’s at least decent and a ST contributer), Keiaho (solid for a year), Charlie Johnson, Bethea (1 PB), Rushing (decent back up and good ST contributer) = 6 players
2007: Gonzo, Ugoh, Session and Dawson = 4 players
2008: All but 2 still here, Hart could possibly come back through practice squad.
That is about the same contribution (as the young players will gain more experience and hasn’t had the chance to play +4 seasons) as
2001: Reggie (top WR, but not in his first years), Bashir (oh no), Cory Bird (injury prone), Ryan Diem (long time starter, but in no way a top RT), Doering (only ST contribution), DeMulling (mediocre)
2002: Freeney (top DE), Triplett (good), Jefferson (fail), Thornton (good) and some non-contributors all gone after a few seasons.
I don’t see how there is a major difference, from the first years to the later years. We have more players currently on the cuurent roster from 2007, than we had two years after the 2002 draft.
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi
by gizzardfanny on Sep 6, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
The scheme change is very responsible for what happened yesterday. This team re-signs its own and has a good team in place. If some of the young guys don’t make it that should be a thumbs up for the current composition of the roster. We could argue certain picks or players all day , but for the league as a whole the last couple of drafts have been weak in the talent pool, just as BBS stated. For instance Pitt and NE, cut 3rd rounders from their 08 drafts in the last few days.
by GonzoBlue on Sep 6, 2009 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
look at the Pats 06 draft
Maroney-Part time back
Chad Jackson-cut last year, now with Denver
David Thomas-blocking TE
Garrett Mills-never played a game in NE, now with Minny
Stephen Gostkowski-very good kicker
Ryan O’Callaghan-out of league
Jeremy Mincey-never played for NE, now with Jax
LeKevin Smith-backup DT, 0 starts
Willie Andrews-out of league
It's not just your perceptions that can be wrong. Even your memory is often incomplete or possibly flat out wrong.
by shake n bake on Sep 6, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, they got
1.5 players out of that draft (and yes, I’m counting Maroney as 1/2 of a player. I actually think that’s a little generous.). Makes me feel good.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
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by Cassieper on Sep 6, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That 2006 draft
Is still hurting New England.
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by BigBlueShoe on Sep 6, 2009 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And their 2007 draft is even worse.
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi
by gizzardfanny on Sep 7, 2009 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ryan O'Callaghan went to Kansas City
Keep the faith!
by Marima on Sep 7, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
saw no games played last year on PFR and thought he was done
quick googling says he was injured.
Still did next to nothing for the Pats
It's not just your perceptions that can be wrong. Even your memory is often incomplete or possibly flat out wrong.
by shake n bake on Sep 7, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm bummed we cut Tauiliili
only because I won’t get to see/hear BBS write/say “Tauiliilililililililililili”
How can you not love a team that does this?
by LovinBlue on Sep 6, 2009 1:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
LOL.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: This is how I fell in love with Family Guy. Only 1 question: Where did he get the flamethrower?
by Cassieper on Sep 6, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
WR?
Just realized, DJ Hackett was cut by the Redskins yesterday. Interest perhaps?
by Zack V on Sep 6, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Practice Squad
From what I have read, teams can start signing guys to the practice squad starting at Noon eastern time today, right??
All I want for Christmas is Grady, Taylor, Tauiliili and Taj with a sprinkle of Hart.
"Put him on the board. Houshmazilli....got it. CHAMPIONSHIP!"
by AceOfSpades on Sep 6, 2009 2:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How about 2 out of 5?
18to88 is saying that we have Taj and Hart on the practice squad.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: This is how I fell in love with Family Guy. Only 1 question: Where did he get the flamethrower?
by Cassieper on Sep 6, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty good article for a below average to MAYBE average intelligence writer :)
I happen to love the fact that so many fans here know and care about guys from 50-70 on the depth chart during training camp. People will still wear the 88 and 18 and 93 jerseys, but it’s cool to get attached to younger fringe players like CuJo and Hart too. I’m sad to see them go, but it’s still no indictment of the drafting process – they still do a better job than almost everyone else. Sure, it’s not a slam dunk like the Giants 07 draft or something, but even the worse ones yield productive players. We’ve just got so many this year that some good ones had to go. And really, we all knew this going into camp.
by willyduer on Sep 6, 2009 3:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Gerald Cadogan and Jamon Meredith
Highly touted OTs a lot of us wanted to draft are out there. They’re not ready to play this year but they will be high quality tackles in this league for years to come. It would be a long shot, though, to get one or both of them and get them on the practice squad.
Everybody’s cutting players they’d like to keep, that’s how it goes.
I still don’t understand why Polian didn’t take a tackle or two this year, seems like everyone recognized the need. Oh well, I’m still not ready to start second-guessing him, at least until after some regular season games.
by HoosierHorseman on Sep 6, 2009 4:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the kind words, BBS.
And great perspective on the article.
Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.
Man, I need a life...
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: This is how I fell in love with Family Guy. Only 1 question: Where did he get the flamethrower?
by Cassieper on Sep 6, 2009 8:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dominic Rhodes was cut. Hell, Marshawn Lynch is suspended for three games, and Dom still got cut. The Bills are a complete mess, folks.
Why are the Bills a complete mess exactly? We cut a guy you didn’t want to resign…
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Sep 6, 2009 10:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
LOL
Are you kidding? We’d have to start a new thread to even get started on that question.
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by peytonsurdaddy on Sep 6, 2009 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But the logic doesn’t flow. We cut a guy that the Colts didn’t want and we’re a mess? That doesn’t make sense. If he was highly coveted then maybe it’s a conversation but nobody wanted him in Indy and obviously they didn’t like him enough in Buffalo to want him.
The replacement of the OC makes a lot more sense than people realize. He had a different philosophy than the HC and as many times as he said he would change it he didn’t do anything differently. Coach Jauron did what any good boss would do to a guy who is not doing what you ask and failing at his job – he canned him. Again, not a mess, just poor timing.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Sep 7, 2009 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mike Tauiliili
What happened? Mike was leading the team (top two or three) in tackles coming into the final preseason game. He is a tremendous ball-hawk and just makes plays. I did not see his name on the practice squad list. Am I the only one supprised?
Enjoy everyday to the fullest, for no one is promised tommorrow.
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by CowboyDevil on Sep 7, 2009 11:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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