2010 Week Four: Inside the Colts Numbers

I, like most of you, was pretty pissed after the 59 yard Field Goal by Josh Scobee sailed through the uprights.  Once again, the Colts had blown a divisional game, albeit on the road.  We've discussed "the Timeout" at length, so there's no need to discuss that further.  I want to focus on the rest of the game, what it showed us, and just how poorly the defense played on Sunday.

First, some notables from the game:

  • Colts.com - Peyton Manning moved into 3rd place all time in Passing Yards, jumping past John Elway.  Manning is now at a cool 51,493 yards (that's almost 10 30 miles folks!), only staring up at Dan Marino and Brett Favre, who'll go over 70,000 next week.
  • Colts.com - Manning and Jeff Saturday started their 158 game together, most by a QB-Center Combo since the 1970 merger.  The previous record was held by Jim Kelly and Ken Hull of the Bills.
  • CBS TV Broadcast - The Colts had scored points on 25 consecutive Red Zone trips, until Reggie Wayne fumbled in the 4th quarter.  It was the longest current streak in the NFL.

This week I'll be showing you actual stats, Opponent-Adjusted stats, Season Stats, and a Week-by-Week look.  As a reminder, Adjusted Stats are what the stats would have been had the Colts played against an Average Team.  That means if you see an offensive number that gets better when adjusted, the defense was good at that stat, so the offense gets more credit.  Same goes defensively.  If it is a below average team, you get less credit.  Let's jump in:

First, the actual stats:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 88.9% 1 82.8% 27 N N 4-0
ANPY/A 7.298 7 9.227 26 N N 8-2
Turnovers 2 12 0 25 N Y 9-2
Yds/Drive 50.75 1 37.44 22 N N 4-1
ToP/Drive 3:46.8 3 3:18.4 23 N N 4-1
Yds/Play 6.152 5 5.912 21 N N 3-4
First Downs/Drive 3.50 1 2.22 24 N N 5-1
3rd/4th Down 72.7% 1 69.2% 27 N N 5-0
Avg Start Pos 23.1 25 33.0 20 N Y 9-0
3 and Outs 2 5 1 25 N N 2-1
RZ Eff 80.0% 8 100.0% 23 N N 1-2
Plays/Drive 8.250 1 6.333 19 N N 4-2
Penalty Yds / Play 0.530 6 0.789 10 N N 5-0
RB Success 68.4% 2 58.8% 22 N N 2-1
Yds/Carry 3.05 25 4.97 21 N Y 3-2
Net Punts Yds/Game 55.00 1 39.00 13 N N 1-0
Ranking - Week (28) 2 28 16
Ranking - Season (124) 7 122 70

And the Adjusted Stats:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 85.2% 1 76.3% 23 N N 4-0
ANPY/A 6.530 10 8.120 23 N N 8-2
Turnovers 2 17 0 26 N Y 9-2
Yds/Drive 45.62 1 34.98 22 N N 4-1
ToP/Drive 3:41.7 2 2:45.4 14 N N 4-1
Yds/Play 5.319 11 6.021 26 N N 3-4
First Downs/Drive 3.15 1 1.84 16 N N 5-1
3rd/4th Down 65.1% 2 59.1% 26 N N 5-0
Avg Start Pos 24.8 25 31.3 16 N Y 9-0
3 and Outs 3 9 3 17 N N 2-1
RZ Eff 72.2% 12 102.4% 27 N N 1-2
Plays/Drive 8.219 1 5.632 16 N N 4-2
Penalty Yds / Play 0.354 3 0.698 18 N N 5-0
RB Success 62.7% 4 54.1% 20 N N 2-1
Yds/Carry 2.71 25 5.25 22 N Y 3-2
Net Punts Yds/Game 55.25 1 38.27 15 N N 1-0
Ranking - Week (28) 2 28 16
Ranking - Season (124) 11 117 59

Some thoughts:

  • Offensively, there wasn't much the Colts didn't do really well.  Turnovers obviously stick out, and they were huge, Bad Field Position, but what else is new, and Yards / Carry, which is also pretty normal.  Everything else was Top 10 in the league this week.  But we knew that already.  3rd/4th Down Conversions were back where they should be as well, especially the critical 4th down on the last drive.
  • Before I leave the offense, look how "successful" Joseph Addai was on Sunday.  It was clearly obvious Joe had a great day running the ball, but the YPC never show it.  However, using RB Success Rate, you see just how good he was, ranking 2nd in actual, 4th in adjusted.  Fantastic day for Addai.
  • There isn't much to say about the defense, other than that the Jacksonville Offense is slightly underrated, based on the schedule they've played so far this season.  That's why quite a few of the adjusted numbers are better than the actual numbers.  I mentioned it before the game, so it shouldn't come as a surprise.  Adjusting for Opponent, it was the 8th worst game defensively in the entire NFL this season.
  • Field Position was key this week in the NFL, with teams who were above average on both sides were a perfect 9-0, including the Jaguars.  Red Zone Efficiency not so much, only going 1 - 2.

Season to date Stats (non-adjusted):

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 80.7% 1 Colts 74.4% 26 Chargers 17-5 0.773
ANPY/A 8.619 1 Colts 6.732 27 Chargers 27-8 0.771
Turnovers 1.00 4 Jets 1.50 20 Steelers 30-6 0.833
Yds/Drive 41.10 2 Cowboys 34.95 28 Chargers 16-9 0.640
ToP/Drive 3:06.9 4 Cowboys 2:44.9 18 Chargers 19-7 0.731
Yds/Play 6.089 3 Chargers 5.943 29 Chargers 16-16 0.500
First Downs/Drive 2.38 2 Cowboys 1.88 25 Chiefs 19-6 0.760
3rd/4th Down 46.9% 5 Patriots 44.6% 25 Ravens 23-4 0.852
Avg Start Pos 27.5 24 Bears 27.8 12 Falcons 30-6 0.833
3 and Outs 2.50 5 Cowboys 3.00 21 Giants 12-9 0.571
RZ Eff 81.9% 2 Eagles 57.1% 10 Titans 25-7 0.781
Plays/Drive 6.750 3 Cowboys 5.881 22 Raiders 17-12 0.586
Penalty Yds / Play 0.704 7 Dolphins 0.729 24 Ravens 19-10 0.655
RB Success 47.3% 14 Cowboys 56.4% 31 Seahawks 14-12 0.538
Yds/Carry 3.21 29 Eagles 4.98 30 Steelers 16-15 0.516
Net Punts Yds/Game 37.83 22 Raiders 41.33 27 Cowboys 12-10 0.545
Overall 2 Patriots 26 Chargers

A couple things here:

  • The Offense is ridiculously good.  Top 5 in the 10 of the best 11 stats, and tops in the most important 2.  Need to keep the train rolling on.
  • The defense is good in the Red Zone, and they generally start with good Field Position.  Also, the Time of Possession / Drive is actually improved over years past.  Need to find a bright spot anywhere I can.
  • The Chargers defense has been awesome so far this season, yet they are 2-2 as well.
  • I'll give you the full rankings later this week, but Overall, in non-Opponent Adjusted stats, the Colts sit 6th overall, falling only 2 spots.  Things could be worse, I guess.  It might be time to hit the panic button due to injuries, but not quite yet with the play on the field.

Here's how the Colts have fared each week, both with Non-Adjusted and Adjusted stats:

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Texans 17 113 65 32 94 64
2 Giants 20 11 3 4 8 1
3 Broncos 42 76 56 31 50 24
4 Jaguars 7 122 70 11 117 59

I'll update this table each week, so you can track how the Colts have done, and how the number change based on how well their opponents are playing.  So far, the Colts win over the Giants is the best game played in the NFL this season.  We know the potential is there, just have to go out and prove it each and every week.

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