Baltimore's win over the Patriots was impressive. They are playing very well right now and deserve a lot of credit for knocking off the Patriots at home. When you look at how the Patriots lost, however, it is easy to see why the Colts shouldn't share the same fate as the Patriots.
1) The Patriots gave up big plays. The most obvious play of the game is Rice's TD run on the first play from scrimmage. I still don't understand why BB chooses to defer the opening kickoff. As we all know, the Colts don't give up big plays. The Ravens will have to move the ball methodically and this means Flacco will have to complete more than four passes to win.
2) The Patriots turned the ball over...and gave up touchdowns as a result of those turnovers. The Colts don't do either of these things. Sure, Manning is not immune from throwing interceptions, but the Colts rarely fumble the ball and Manning is about as steady as a quarterback can be. When the Colts do turn the ball over, they don't give up touchdowns (only one this season).
3) The Patriots weren't healthy. Welker was out. Brady and Moss didn't look right. Edelman was knicked up during the game. The Colts, on the other hand, are rested. As much as some of us may disdain the Colts for sitting at the end of the season, I think it will help. This team is too mature to come out flat because of the rest.